11/7/2014

1

InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

NUNUNG NURYARTONO

Indonesia Economy : Challenge and Opportunity

Go-Live Round Table Discussion Adelaide 7 November

InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Outline

A Fact on Indonesia Economy

Problem and Challenge

Opportunity

Discussion

7 November 2014

11/7/2014

2

InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Indonesia : current and future

Sources: McKinsey Global Institute (2012)

7 November 2014

GDP Growth : tend to slow down

0.35

0.37 0.38

0.41 0.41 0.413

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

0.42

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Gini Ratio

5.99

6.29

5.81

6.81

6.44 6.58 6.49 6.44

6.33 6.34 6.21 6.18

6.03 5.76

5.63 5.72

5.21

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

10 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 11 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 12 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 14 Q1

GDP Growth

GDP Poly. (GDP)

7.82 19.68 22.12 26.06

-1.66 -4.08

-20

0

20

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Export and Import

7 November 2014

11/7/2014

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InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Indonesian’s Economy Structure 2007-2012

7 November 2014

27,35

25,04

36,73

24,6726,08

40,2724,30

38,12

44,97

28,65

32,33

32,3328,81 28,98

36,00 40,27

31,9938,42

43,20

22,3641,62

33,81

22,45

26,92

36,10

60,41

1000 0 1000 2000 Kilometers

N

Sektor Dominan

Pertanian

Pertambangan & Penggalian

Industri Pengolahan

Perdagangan, Hotel

Keuangan & Persewaan

Jasa-Jasa

2007

Sumber : Nuryartono (2014), data diolah dari informasi BPS

InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

2012

7 November 2014

Source : Nuryartono (2014),

11/7/2014

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InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Java Island is an engine of growth

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sumatra Jawa Sulawesi Bali NTT dan NTB Kalimantan Papua dan Maluku

22.11

58.84

4.07 2.23

10.7

2.2

23.79

57.63

4.73 1.99

10

2.07

Share Size of Economy 2005 dan 2012 (persen)

2005 2012

7 November 2014

InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Poverty map in rural areas: 2013

7 November 2014

20.14 10.33

8.30 9.55 9.21

7.54

14.50 6.97

17.97 15.62

0.00 11.42

7.22 16.05 17.62

16.23 5.00

16.22 22.69

10.07 6.45 5.50

10.24 10.46

24.22 15.89

13.31 13.31

16.92 26.30

9.20 40.72

36.89

0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.00

AcehSumatera UtaraSumatera Barat

RiauKepulauan Riau

JambiSumatera Selatan

Kepulauan Bangka…BengkuluLampung

DKI JakartaJawa Barat

BantenJawa Tengah

DI YogyakartaJawa Timur

BaliNusa Tenggara BaratNusa Tenggara Timur

Kalimantan BaratKalimantan Tengah

Kalimantan SelatanKalimantan Timur

Sulawesi UtaraGorontalo

Sulawesi TengahSulawesi Selatan

Sulawesi BaratSulawesi Tenggara

MalukuMaluku Utara

PapuaPapua Barat

Poor people (%)

Sumber : Nuryartono (2014), peta tematik diolah dari BPS

11/7/2014

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InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Increasing Inequality among the region

7 November 2014

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

2012 2013

InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Infrastructure index 1991-2007

Infrastructure Development an comparison

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

Ace

h

Sum

ut

Sum

bar

Ria

u

Jam

bi

Sum

sel

Ben

gku

lu

Lam

pu

ng

Jaka

rta

Jab

ar

Jate

ng

DIY

Jati

m

Bal

i

NTB

NTT

Ka

lbar

Ka

lte

ng

Ka

lse

l

Ka

ltim

Sulu

t

Sult

en

g

Suls

el

Sult

ra

Ma

luku

Pap

ua

33.39

44.33

34.03

38.42

31.59

39.71

31.57

21.90

97.04

40.86 39.50

45.32 45.67

55.50

27.00 22.81

31.76

21.71

42.77

49.63 48.27

29.65 32.57

27.06 28.19 29.79

36

45

36

44

29 34

29 32

85

44 40

47 48

60

28 23

29 26

41 46

28 33

37

25 27 27

Pe

rse

n (

%)

1991 2007 Source : Prasetyo, Nuryartono 2012

7 November 2014

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InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Challenges

Human resources quality :

IPM (121); compare to Malaysia (64), Thailand (103), Philippina (114), dan Singapura (18) (UNDP, 2013)

Competitivenes Index : 38; compare to Singapura (2), Malaysia (24), Thailand (37) (World Economic Forum, 2014)

Asean Economics Community in 2015; Winner or looser

ADB report : in Asia Region potentially 11 countries as fast growing emerging economies will be trapped in middle income trap : Indonesia is one of that.

7 November 2014

InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Role of research & innovation

Source: The World Bank

In 2013 predicted GDP Indonesia USD 1,283

Billion with around 0.25% from GDP for R&D

Expenditures

7 November 2014

11/7/2014

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InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Opportunity

Fiscal Policy reform

Demography bonus

New Government play a role

7 November 2014

InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Thank you very much……..

7 November 2014

11/7/2014

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InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Government Expenditure

7 November 2014

0.0

50,000.0

100,000.0

150,000.0

200,000.0

250,000.0

300,000.0

350,000.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1. Belanja Pegawai 2. Belanja Barang 3. Belanja Modal

4. Pembayaran Bunga Utang 5 a. Subsidi Energi 5 b. Subsidi Non Energi

6. Belanja Hibah 7. Bantuan Sosial 8. Belanja Lain-Lain

InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Who’s get what from fuel subsidy?

7 November 2014

11/7/2014

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InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

7 November 2014

InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics

Mewujudkan kemandirian

ekonomi dengan

menggerakan sektor-sektor

strategis ekonomi domestik

VISI-MISI

Meningkatkankualitas hidup

manusia Indonesia

PROGRAM AKSI

Meningkatkan produktivitas

rakyat dan

daya saing di pasar

internasional

AGENDA PRIORITAS EKONOMI