Indonesia Economic Update & ICT Overview - Regulasi … Development Index Indonesia Connectivity...
Transcript of Indonesia Economic Update & ICT Overview - Regulasi … Development Index Indonesia Connectivity...
Indonesia Economic Update
& ICT Overview
Prof. Firmanzah.,PhD
Disajikan pada
Indonesia Broadband Economy Forum
Kemenko Perekonomian RI dan KADIN
21 September 2011
Ekonomi Dunia
Laju pertumbuhan > 5%
Peringkat 18 negara
dengan PDB
terbesar di dunia th
2010…
Th 2025????
INDONESIA
Jumlah Penduduk 2010 236.7 juta jiwa
PDB 2010 6.422 triliun US $ 706 Milyar =
60-65% usia dewasa (15-60)
Pertumbuhan PDB 2010 6,1 %
Cadangan devisa per Juli 2011 US $ 122,7 milyar
Angka kemiskinan Maret 2011 12,49 % (30,02 juta jiwa)
PDB per kapita 2010 US $ 3.000
Growth PDB
by sector 2010
Pengangkutan & komunikasi
(13,5 %) perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran
(8,7 %)
konstruksi
(7,0 %)
Jasa-jasa
(6,0 %)
keuangan, real estat, dan jasa perusahaan
(5,7%)
Listrik, gas, air bersih
(5,3%)
Manufaktur
(4,5%)
Pertambangan
(3,5%)
Pertanian
(2,9%)
Tenaga kerja
Per sektor 2010
Pertanian
(38,3 %) perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran
(20,8 %)
Jasa-jasa
(14,0 %)
Manufaktur
(12,8 %)
Pengangkutan&Komunikasi
(5,2%)
Konstruksi
(5,1%)
Keuangan,realestate & jasa lainnua
(1,6%)
Pertambangan
(1,1%)
Listrik, gas,air bersih
(0,22%)
Peringkat Daya Saing Global 2009 – 2010 – 2011 54 – 44 - 46
Indikator Makro 2006-2012
5.56.3 6
4.6
6.1 6.5 6.7
0
2
4
6
8
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Pertumbuhan
Ekonomi 6.6 6.6
11.1
2.8
7
5.65 5.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Inflasi
850
900
950
1000
0204060
80100120
lifting
harga minyak
dunia
lifting 959 899931 944954 945950
harga minyak
dunia
64 70 97 62 79 95 90
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Kurs
9164 9140
9691
10408
90878700 8800
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Diolah dari Kemneterian Keuangan, 2011
2006-2010 LKPP; 2011 APBN-P; 2012 RAPBN
Percentage Distribution of GDP by Expenditure
Source: World Bank and BPS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
*
% GDP
Household final consumption
Exports of goods &services
Imports of goods &services
Gross fixed capital formation
General governmentfinal consumption
56,6%
Konsumsi RT
8,9%
Konsumsi Pemerintah
23,2 %
Ekspor
22,6 %
Impor (-)
32,5%
Pembentukan modal
tetap bruto
Th 2010
Inventory (0,8%), diskrepansi staistik (0,6%)
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
5.3
-11.4
3.9
6.0
3.3
5.9
5.34.6
4.6 4.6 4.7
3.7
2.1
4.5
4.7
-13.1
0.8
4.9
3.84.3
4.95.6 5.6
5.5
6.3 6.0
4.5
6.1
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
pertumbuhan ekonomi pertumbuhan industri
Data BPS diolah
Pertumbuhan ekonomi-pertumbuhan industri 1997-2010
Pertumbuhan periode 1986-
1991, pertumbuhan industri >
10%, 1992-1996 pertumbuhan
industri di angka 9,6%-11,6%
Sumber : Bappenas
Global ICT Development 2000-2010
Lower than thailand,
south africa
World-Internet users
Broadband penetration - World
ICT Development Index
Indonesia Connectivity Scorecard
Digital Economy Ranking 2010
Negara Ranking
2009
Ranking
2010
Overall
score
Connectivi
ty
Business
environm
ent
Social-
cultural
environn
ment
Legal
environm
ent
Governme
nt policy
& vision
Consumer &
Business adoption
Singapore 7 8 8,22 7,65 8,40 7,27 9,00 9,18 8,28
Malaysia 38 36 5,93 4,35 7,36 5,47 6,88 6,65 5,80
Thailand 49 49 4,86 3,20 6,83 4,50 6,35 5,60 4,18
Philipina 54 54 4,47 2,60 6,35 4,27 4,85 5,20 4,38
Vietnam 64 62 3,87 3,20 5,70 3,60 4,65 4,60 2,71
Indonesia 65 65 3,60 2,60 6,04 3,60 4,20 3,88 2,55
Sumber : The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2010
Technology Readiness, GCI-WEF
Tech.Readiness
Avail.of latest tech
Firm-level tech-
absorption
FDI & tech.transf
er
Internet users
Broadband internet
subscribers
Internet bandwith
Singapore 11 20 15 3 16 22 14
Malaysia 40 35 30 16 39 62 41
Vietnam 65 102 60 31 83 77 82
Thailand 68 64 66 34 86 88 75
Indonesia 91 77 65 54 107 99 102
Philipina 95 62 59 88 112 84 101
Tech.Readiness
Avail.of latest tech
Firm-level tech-
absorption
FDI & tech.transf
er
Internet users
Broadband internet
subscribers
Internet bandwith
Singapore 10 17 10 3 25 21 7
Malaysia 44 35 28 12 40 62 60
Vietnam 79 133 88 62 84 76 88
Thailand 84 82 75 32 93 77 83
Indonesia 96 74 54 64 117 103 108
Philipina 83 62 52 66 88 90 76
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
Yg menarik
Indonesia
pengguna
terbesar kedua
setelah USA
Penetrasi TIK
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Tahun
Pe
ng
gu
na
Year PSTN WLL GSM 3G NB BB i-TV
Densitas TIK
0%
50%
100%
150%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
TahunP
en
gg
un
a
PSTN per HH WLL per HH GSM per Pop 3G per Pop
NB per HH BB per HH i-TV per HH
Source: Kemkominfo & Worldbank
PENETRASI & DENSITAS TIK
Penetrasi PSTN+WLL dan Internet sektor Residensial
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Tahun
Pe
ne
tra
si
PSTN+WLL GSM 3G NB BB
Source: Kemkominfo & Worldbank
PENETRASI & DENSITAS TIK
Broadband & Society
Midleton, 2007
Broadband & Competitiveness
Broadband
Administration cost
Transaction cost
Reduce
Production cost
Productivity
Broadband & Competitiveness
• Broadband and economy impact
Broadband
Communication
Innovation
New company
Labor creation
Purchasing Power
Affordability
Broadband and GDP growth
• Previous research
Katz et al (2009)
2000-2006 in Germany
Koutroumpis (2009)
2002-2007 for
22 OECD countries
Czernich et al.(2009)
1996-2007 for OECD countries
Qiang et al.(2009)
119 countries
An increase in of
broadband penetration
between 1% - 10%
contributes in an increase
GDP growth between
0,0025% - 1,5 %
Broadband penetration and
Employment growth
• Previous research
Lehr et al.(2005)
1998-2002 for ZIP codes
Crandall et al.(2007)
For 48 states
Shideler et al. (2007)
Thompson et al. (2008)
2000-2006 for 48 states
An increase in of
broadband penetration
contributes in an
increases employment
growth varies by
industry
Studies of the Employment Impact
of Broadband
• First impact: Jobs created in order to deploy the infrastructure (e.g. construction), and
• Second impact: Employment generated as a result of network externalities on other sectors of the economy. The results of the research to date in these two areas will be reviewed in turn.
Katz, (2009)
Conceptual view of comparative
broadband regional effects
Katz, 2009
Others….
• OECD (2008) broadband impact on productivity, SME’s, quality of life, consumer surplus
• Prof. Raul L. Katz and Javier G. Avila (2009) broadband impacts on economic performance (GDP growth and employment growth)
• Fornefeld et.al (2008) broadband impact on growth and productivity
• Crandall (2008) broadband deployment contributes in an increases of growth, jobs and investment
• Hagén et.al (2008) Broadband improve firm productivity
• Gillett et.al (2005) broadband access does enhance economic growth and performance
Broadband impact on the economy:
Summary from previous research
Katz (2009)
Presentation
Prof.Firmanzah, Ph.D
Dean
Faculty of Economics and Business
University of Indonesia
2011