Indicators Approach Paper

for

Possible Application of the RAF

to

Transboundary Freshwater Basins in the

International Waters Focal Area

A Strategy Document to the Global Environment Facility Consultant: Charles J. Vörösmarty (City College of New York, City University of New York) Tel: 212-650-7042 (w), 603-944-0554 (m) E-mail: cvorosmarty@ccny.cuny.edu with the inputs of C. Revenga (The Nature Conservancy, Arlington VA) P. McIntyre (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI) B. Fekete (City College of New York, CUNY, New York NY) B. Lehner (McGill University, Montreal CANADA) P. Green (City College of New York, CUNY, New York NY) A. Prusevich [University of New Hampshire, Durham NH) A. deSherbinin (CIESIN / Columbia University NY) M. Levy (CIESIN / Columbia University NY) R. Chen (CIESIN / Columbia University NY) J. Rockström (Stockholm Environment Institute [SEI])

5 November 2008

1

TABLE OF CONTENTS Description Page I. Introduction and Rationale 2

The Need for a Basin-Oriented, Water Benefits Accounting Framework 2 TABLE 1: Key water resource supplies 3 Integrated Data Frameworks to Support the IW Focal Area 4

II. Design Criteria for Framework 4 III. A Brief Review of Mapping Resources Contributing to a GBI 5 IV. Prototype Tests 7

TABLE 2A: Major themes, subsidiary driver data sets and their key attributes 8

TABLE 2B: Major data centers 11 BOX 1: The Global-RIMS Toolkit 13

V. Key Affiliates and Partnerships: Data Providers and Users 14 VI. Conclusions and Recommendations 14 Targeted Outputs 14 Key Recommendations for Next 2-5 Years 15 Acronyms 16 References 17

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I. Introduction and Rationale

Water is arguably the essential ingredient uniting the physics, biology and human systems of the planet. In addition to greenhouse warming and concerns about an "accelerated" hydrologic cycle, many other anthropogenic factors directly change the state of water resources. Prominent among these are widespread land cover change, urbanization, industrialization, plus a host of hydraulic engineering schemes -like reservoir construction, irrigation, and interbasin transfers- each designed to optimize the use of fresh water by humans. All yield impacts, both positive and negative, on fresh water, yet society's management of water resources and aquatic ecosystems can arguably be tabulated as a net overall impairment (Vörösmarty et al. 2005, LePreiur et al. 2008, Abell et al. 2008). And, as humans struggle with tightly-linked strategic imperatives on food and energy security, economic development, and carbon mitigation that will serve a population moving toward 9-10B, the collective significance of transformations of so basic an element of the Earth system, water, remains unknown. As they have for millennia, humans will struggle to stabilize and make available water in the face of a highly capricious climate, failed governance, mismanagement, overuse and depletion, biodiversity loss, and pollution. While water issues in the world's more than 250 international river basins have historically promoted collaboration rather than conflict (UNEP/OSU 2002), the fundamentals determining the biogeophysical, human development, economic, and governance characteristics found across modern river basins are likely to change substantially over the next decades as we enter a substantially more crowded, resource limited, and climate modified world. Recent work (Miguel et al. 2007, Levy et al. 2005) employing a geospatial approach to unite biogeophysical and social science data is beginning to uncover causal links between elements of the water cycle like rainfall and hydrologic variability and the presence and intensity of civil conflict, at least within nation-states. Furthermore, the ramifications of upstream management decisions can extend literally 1000s of kilometers downstream. For instance, inputs of fertilizer and toxic chemicals, flow alteration, and sediment trapping behind dams jeopardize the habitability of many densely-populated coastal regions around the world. Human activities in upland basins are creating many "blue water" challenges including harmful algal blooms, oxygen dead zones, and reef destruction that are today found throughout the world. Devising interventions to manage and potentially reverse these trends requires a sound, quantitative knowledge base. Indicators and indices are at the heart of several recent assessments including those depicting the state of human development (HDI; UNDP), ecosystem services (several chapters in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment), environmental sustainability (ESI; Esty, Levy et al. 2006), and environmental performance (EPI; Esty et al. 2006), which is articulating environmental sustainability in the context of a nation's capacity to govern and technically execute protective measures. In the water arena, the 2003 and 2006 World Water Development Report series presented long lists of potential indicators (>150 and 60, respectively), with no accompanying strategic plan on their use. The indicators and indices presented were highly fragmentary across countries, poorly integrated across chapters and often only tangentially related to water (e.g. industrial indexes). Many were recycled from other sources and few presented unique value-added products. Thus, even with the WWDR serving as the formal UN-designated vehicle for issuing a report card on the state of world water resources we find an accounting process far from ideal. Further, the UN-Water Report on Water Monitoring (FAO 2006) lists the following descriptors on the state of affairs with respect to water information more generally-- "irregular updating", "key information still missing", "some monitoring systems…of little use", "monitoring systems poorly described". At the same time it reports on "impressive progress using global spatial information". The Need for a Basin-Oriented, Water Benefits Accounting Framework: A broad array of water resource and water provisioning services (collectively termed water benefits) can be enumerated using contemporary data sets and modeling capabilities (Table 1). Runoff produced by precipitation in excess

3

of evapotranspiration constitutes the renewable natural resource base. From a water resource perspective, however, water benefits must be defined not only by such locally generated runoff but also by remote runoff transported horizontally through river corridors as discharge. Along the way the supply can be withdrawn, depleted, redirected, and/or polluted, thus setting-up constraints on the water resource system. Accessible supplies must also be assessed in terms of the technical and economic capacity to deliver water services, arising from the uneven distribution of wealth, political will, and technological resources. For example, despite best intentions, more than 1B still fail to have adequate supplies of drinking water; 2.5B fail to have access to basic sanitation services (WHO/UNICEF 2004). The question thus becomes one of spatial and temporal contrasts, mismatches between what is potentially available and practically accessible, and the capacity to deliver water benefits to end-users. A geospatial drainage basin context is essential for understanding these patterns (Vörösmarty et al. 2005). In addition to these many geophysical factors, assessment of ecosystem state is also needed to fully evaluate basin condition and thus GEF funding priorities. Direct freshwater benefits are associated with the productivity of native fauna (e.g. fisheries & other harvests) and aquaculture. Drinking water quality, sustainable fisheries, and other basin services depend on the collective role of a diverse flora and fauna that maintain ecosystem function. While a GBI for Transboundary Freshwaters focuses on water provisioning services, it must be stressed such these water benefits will be compromised unless conservation principles protecting biodiversity are exercised. Because water benefits require healthy physical, chemical, and biodiversity conditions, we must be able to map an array of conditions within river basins including: degree of floodplain dis/connectivity; status of natural flow regimes (i.e. timing, frequency, magnitude and duration of different flood and low-flow events like spring peak floods & summer low flows); pollution sources, natural purification and/or engineered treatment potential; and, invasive species introduction. Trade-offs --whether planned or unintended-- involving the co-balancing of the geophysical, biotic, and socioeconomic components of river basins will likely constitute a central position in the environmental management agenda well into the future. A capacity to (i) pinpoint emerging problem (e.g. hot spot & conflict) areas, (ii) identify causal factors, and (iii) design interventions represents a new priority in water sciences and policy. This is essential to avoid human vs. human and human vs. nature conflicts. TABLE 1. Key water resource supplies and water benefits amenable to enumeration in IW drainage basins.

WATER SYSTEM ELEMENT

Typical Roles in Water Resource Systems

Green Water - Precipitation as Rain and

Snowfall - Soil moisture

- Direct support to rainfed cropping systems - After the process of evaporation and plant transpiration, precipitation falling on the land creates runoff from which is

derived the blue water resource

Blue Water (natural & altered) - Net of local groundwater

recharge, surface runoff/streamflow

- Farm ponds, check dams augment green water in rainfed cropping systems - Represents source waters and entrains constituents delivered downstream within watersheds

- Inland water systems (lakes, rivers, wetlands)

- Key resource over district, national, multi-national domains - Important role in transport, waste management, and to domestic, industrial, agricultural sectors

- Ground Water (shallow) - Locally distributed shallow well systems serving drinking water and irrigation needs - Fossil Ground Water (deep) - Critical (and often sole) source of water in arid and semi-arid regions Blue Water (engineered) - Diversions including

reservoirs & interbasin transfers; reused waters

- Critical (and often sole) source of water in arid and semi-arid regions - Stabilizes and/or redirects flow from water rich times/places to water poor times/places, altering blue water balance - Serve multiple uses: hydropower; irrigation, domestic, industrial, recreational uses; flood control - Secondary reuse as effluents in irrigation

Virtual Water - Represents water embodied in production of goods and services, typically with crops traded on the int'l market - Not explicitly recognized as a water resource management tool until recently

Desalination (DS) - Augmentation in water scarce areas;

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Integrated Data Frameworks to Support the IW Focal Area. At the precise moment when we require a comprehensive surveillance capability on the state and trajectory of water systems, we find that cost-recovery requirements, intellectual property rights, and reduced technical know-how, particularly across the developing world, has restricted the availability of baseline in situ hydrographic data, the mainstay of water resource assessment over basin, continental, and global domains (IAHS 2000). Satellite and other Earth system information products have the potential to fill some of these gaps. Indeed, in many parts of the world, these information sets represent the only practical means of assessing many of the physical aspects of the river basin environments (Vörösmarty et al. 2003; Lawford et al. 2004). Through modeling, GIS, and web-based meta-data search engines the assessment community now has access to literally Terabytes of information relating to many hydrologic and other water service related variables, which in turn can be coherently processed, integrated and analyzed for pure research and societal applications (NRC Decadal Survey 2007). Development of a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) is an essential step in promoting the consistent planning and implementation of integrated observational systems, yet end-to-end applications have yet to materialize. With this said, it must also be stressed that in situ monitoring remains irreplaceable, not only for validating global data mapping but also in serving as the only practicable data resource, as is the case for many biodiversity variables. For this reason, developing a suitable compendium of field survey data should be an essential part of the GBI accounting system as well. Within the GEF Resource Allocation Framework (RAF) for International Waters, the capacity to quantify a GEF Benefits Index (GBI) for a particular basin using such globally available information streams and more detailed regional non-satellite data has an arguably decided advantage over individual country-level data sets that are typically poorly harmonized, fragmentary, and often politicized. In the context of the more than 60 countries signing GEOSS data sharing agreements, plus an ongoing effort by the International Council of Science (ICSU; CODATA 2007) to create the impetus and protocols for wide distribution of Earth system and human dimensions data, these information resources represent an effective alternative. Projects demonstrating end-to-end tests, taking geophysical data sets from original sources and delivering them to societal end-uses are still lacking. Incorporating such new capabilities into the RAF provides an ideal opportunity to systematize accounting procedures for enumerating international river basin benefits and to provide the quantitative backdrop for combining GBI with the GEF Performance Index (GPI) as part of an RAF. This white paper first presents a conceptual framework for developing an international basin-oriented GBI, followed by a review of potential data sets contributing to the index. It goes on to present a "worked" example using an existing toolkit, Global-RIMS (Global Rapid Indicator Mapping System). The example seeks to demonstrate how an integrated framework could be used to systematically assess threats to drainage basin water benefits from the standpoint of first providing human water resources and next protecting the integrity of inland aquatic systems upon which the water resource base is dependent. II. Design Criteria for Framework

A design concept for a benefits accounting system--the GEF Benefits Index (GBI) for International Waters-- is presented here, expressly formulated to provide an integrated and pragmatic approach to facilitate near-term (2-5 year) progress in the realm of an RAF for transboundary surface waters. The proposed GBI frame is designed around the following system requirements: (i) river network-based perspectives in an international drainage basin context, (ii) interdisciplinarity, (iii) the use of timely and high quality scientific and technical resources, and (iv) engagement of the user and decision-maker community. The effort is targeted at the transboundary surface waters component of the GBI, but could also be adopted into the IW Groundwaters and Large Marine Ecosystem elements as well. The principal goal of the GBI framework for International Waters is to:

5

• Provide an accounting tool to evaluate a GEF Benefits Index, designed to support the RAF process

through (a) high quality, quantitative, and timely geospatial information on the condition of water resources in the world's more than 250 international drainage basins, both now and into the future, (b) a framework for quantifying and inter-comparing basin water services within and across country and other administrative units, (c) a process to engage decision makers, and (d) training and capacity building to disseminate and capitalize on new technical capabilities.

One initial focus of the GBI should be on producing a contemporary, time-varying, and authoritative picture of transboundary water benefits, anticipated to be presented as monthly updates and covering the period 2000-to-present, which is possible for many of the key variables. It is proposed (see Sections III, VI) that national summaries be based on an accounting unit of ≈8km resolution for the majority of the world's international basins. Future scenarios embedding climate change, population growth, economic development, change in governance and enforcement can also be considered. Developing a sound GBI requires the collaboration of several international partners (Technical Appendix 1; Section V). There are six design objectives in building such a framework:

• Benefits Accounting and Mapping: To create a coherent geography – a set of electronic maps –providing the quantitative underpinnings of the GEF Benefits Index for international basins, with focus on contemporary and future time horizons; user-customized calculations are required, using the full suite of data holdings for QA/QC testing and to address evolving issues of interest.

• Database Use and Data Integration: To enable the use of sufficiently mature "off-the-shelf", operational, new data bases for use in the GBI.

• Tracking Impacts of Interventions: To support the RAF by creating a formal mechanism to bring together models, data sets, and other necessary tools in order to identify before-after visioning experiments and eventual tracking of the time course of events vis a viz the impact (both positive and negative) of policy interventions and GEF resource allocations.

• Integration of IW RAF elements: To provide a context for linking GBI elements of the Transboundary Freshwater Basins and other IW components, specifically Transboundary Groundwaters and Large Marine Ecosystems.

• Priority Setting: To translate results for particular international drainage basins into further awareness-building, articulation of needed investments in environmental surveillance, international cooperation, and future policy priorities.

• Capacity Development: To promote adoption of the data and toolkit system in order to facilitate local verification of computed services, and stakeholder engagement in the RAF design process.

III. A Brief Review of Mapping Resources Contributing to a GBI

Provided below is a brief synopsis, in tabular form, of the current generation of existing biogeophysical and social science data resources that could populate a GBI for International Waters. The overall conceptual framework, and the position of the GBI within it, is presented in Figure 1. The data listing is arguably incomplete, as the potential data streams are already large in number and continue to evolve. For tractability and in keeping with the intent of this report, the review below identifies indicators that represent clear determinants of water services in a drainage basin context. In situ and survey data are not listed but will need to be collected for individual basins. A "worked example" is presented later in this report, which uses entries in Table 2. The table is organized into four Themes with 36 subsidiary Driver data sets. These collectively will be used to quantify -- through a systematic weighting procedure -- the impairment of water benefits from both human water resource and aquatic biodiversity perspectives. The Themes and Drivers have been identified by consulting the literature to establish their relevancy and to

6

assign particular numerical values for the weightings. They also have been chosen due to their policy-actionable nature. These Themes and Drivers are distinct from an additional set of more societal "backdrop" or "context" variables. The latter provide potential constraints (or opportunities) with respect to RAF investments (e.g. level of governance/corruption, population density, GDP per capita). They also could be explored for predictive value in determining the state of multi-national basins, though they clearly would be less amenable as targets for specific RAF investments. Figure 1. A notional conceptual framework for the overall GEF Transboundary Freshwater Basins effort in the IW Focal Area. Shaded boxes are emphasized in this report and represent more specifically the GBI component. RAF-informing data flows embody a recursive process involving (i) mapping of biogeophysical and socioeconomic variables in individual basins, (ii) consideration of GPI constraints/potentials, (iii) creation of new data streams, and (iv) assessment of post-intervention performance. This framework enables human water needs, environmental flows, and additional basin water benefits targets to be simultaneously assessed. Accounting systems optimized to the Groundwater Basins & Large Marine Ecosystems components of the IW as well as other GEF "focal areas" can be integrated as well.

The data review was executed through a consensus-based procedure involving numerous conference calls and a face-to-face meeting in early October 2008 in which several of the expert contributors to this report, as well as others, participated. The vetting procedure involved identification of candidate data sets followed by technical staging (geographic projection, necessary resampling, etc.). Finalist data sets were incorporated into the existing Global-RIMS toolkit, which provided (i) calculation of key statistics, including the nature of statistical distributions for each data set, (ii) visual inspection of spatial patterns, (iii) calculation of key summary statistics with comparison to expert knowledge and published statistics, and (vi) reconfiguration & recasting as necessary until an acceptable data product emerged. Table 2 is the result of this QA/QC procedure. The Table offers the key attributes and readiness of these data sets for use in an operational GBI accounting system. Further details on the data are given in Technical Appendix-2 (use of the data), TA-3 (maps and statistics), TA-4 (meta-data compendium). While one could argue about the specifics of the worked example, it has proven itself a useful exercise in identifying candidate GBI-ready data sets and in offering insights into their use in the IW context:

• Data sets are from a variety of applications, not necessarily associated with water benefits or services; these cannot be used strictly "off-the-shelf"- careful interpretation & reconstitution needed.

• Direct measures are not always available and surrogates need to be applied (e.g. erosion maps for sediment pollution; power station water use for thermal pollution); a weighting procedure (shown in the demonstration in Section IV) is one strategy to overcome this limitation.

• Time domains for the individual data sets are not typically synchronized and require harmonization. • Spatial resolutions are disparate, with a variety of formats including point, vector and shape files;

length scales for grid-based data span several orders of magnitude, from 10s of meters to 100's of km; some data sets like fishing pressure are presented as national means or totals, requiring a procedure to geospatially distribute the aggregate numbers (McIntyre et al., in preparation).

• Opportunities exist to construct a picture of time-varying conditions (i.e. hydrological drivers identifying periods of extremes), either as a full time series from year 2000 to near present or as

7

monthly climatologies. Other variables (e.g. invasive fish, plants, invertebrates species) are not presently updated and represent in general terms a "contemporary" state.

Thus, we see that these data sets are in a variety of states of readiness for adoption into the RAF. As the Table 2 entries are representative of such data holdings at large, it can be anticipated that inherent limitations as well as opportunities for their use will be encountered as other variables are considered in the evolving RAF process. In this context, it is reasonable to conclude that a GBI framework for International Waters focusing next on higher resolution and time-varying data streams will require substantial investments of time and expertise in data re-sampling, data harmonization, QA/QC, and interpretation. The goal is within reach for some of the factors (i.e. hydrological drivers), but less so with others like the invasive fish species. A systematic assessment of the errors introduced into the GBI calculation by the admixture of varying resolution data streams, varying time domains, the use of surrogate data sets, and inherent data quality is recommended. IV. Prototype Tests

A prototype assessment of the global distribution of impairment to Human Water Security (HWS) and Biodiversity-River Health (BD-RH) in a drainage basin context was recently completed using a subset of the Table 2 entries in conjunction with an indicator calculation system (Box 1). The results from this demonstration quantified an aggregate threat index for each application area. This metric can be thought of as an expression of the degree to which benefit services have been compromised. As the calculation tool is easily configurable, the inverse of these results (i.e. level of uncompromised services) can be computed and expressed as a GBI for individual basins, geographical regions, and/or administrative units. The details of the approach are provided in Technical Appendices 2 & 3, but in brief, a set of global GIS data layers was developed (Table 2) describing the spatial distribution of 36 drivers of potential water services impairment (23 used in the experiment) across all watersheds of the world, initially delineated as 30' x 30' (lat x long) grids (ca. 50 km length scale) (Figure 2). Pixel-based values for each driver were routed downstream through digital river networks and divided by discharge to yield what effectively was a concentration of driver impact. The range of resulting values for each driver data set was noted, converted (typically) into logarithms and then normalized (0 to 1). Because of the paucity of information on establishing one-to-one correspondence between stressor and impact, and because of the assumption that it will be the unique combination of stressors that will determine the aggregate level of stress, a weighting system based on expert opinion was developed. Each of the drivers was placed into one of four theme areas, with a weighting assigned such that within each theme the individual driver weights summed to 1.0. In turn, each of the themes used here was assigned a weighting with their sum totaling to 1.0. Separate weightings were assigned with respect to HWS and BD-RH, so that while the same driver data were used throughout, the differential weightings produced two separate threat indices reflecting these two impact perspectives. The available driver values were multiplied by their corresponding within-theme weights and their sum recorded and carried forward to compute the two threat indices at the pixel scale (30' lat x long), which then constituted two global mappings, one for HWS and the other for BD-RH threat/impairment. Figure 2 summarizes visually the calculation procedure. Maps of the composite threat index for individual pixels (n>62,000 globally at 30' resolution) representing the more than 6,200 river basins of the world were produced and analyzed. The map for BD-RH is shown in Figure 3, along with a difference map of areas where, in relative terms, one class of threat predominates over the other. Clearly, there will be regions where both HWS and BD-RH threats will be minimal, where one threat predominates, and where both are substantial. The difference map shows the distinct geographies of the threats, suggesting that RAF interventions may need to be crafted within the context of management objectives that are not necessarily well-harmonized; RAF investment strategies may thus require a formal tradeoff analysis, the design of which fell outside the mandate of this report.

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ow D

istor

tion:

W

ater

Co

nsum

ptio

n

Dep

letio

n of

flow

U

sing

met

hods

in V

örös

mar

ty e

t al.

2005

0.

1 x

0.1

degr

ee g

loba

l gr

id

N

o fu

rther

pro

cess

ing

requ

ired

Fl

ow D

istor

tion:

Re

siden

ce T

ime

Chan

ge d

ue to

Im

poun

dmen

t

Res

iden

ce ti

me

dow

nstre

am o

f dam

s U

sing

met

hods

in V

örös

mar

ty e

t al.

1997

0.

1 x

0.1

degr

ee g

loba

l gr

id

R

equi

res

0.1

X 0.

1 de

gree

rene

wab

le w

ater

sup

ply

data

set c

urre

ntly

in p

rogr

ess

Av

ailab

le wa

ter

per c

apita

R

enew

able

wat

er s

uppl

y di

vide

d by

to

tal,

urba

n an

d ru

ral p

opul

atio

n di

strib

utio

n

Com

pute

d fro

m W

Isse

r et a

l. 20

08

and

CIE

SIN

200

4 0.

1 x

0.1

degr

ee; a

rc-

seco

nd g

loba

l grid

Req

uire

s 0.

1 X

0.1

degr

ee re

new

able

wat

er s

uppl

y da

tase

t cur

rent

ly in

pro

gres

s

Avail

able

wate

r pe

r uni

t cr

oplan

d

Ren

ewab

le w

ater

sup

ply

divi

ded

by

crop

land

C

ompu

ted

from

WIs

ser e

t al.

2008

an

d R

aman

kutty

, et.

al.,

2008

; Th

enka

bail,

et a

l, 20

08 (G

IAM

)

5 m

in x

5 m

in g

loba

l gr

id

R

equi

res

0.1

X 0.

1 de

gree

rene

wab

le w

ater

sup

ply

data

set c

urre

ntly

in p

rogr

ess

Urb

an W

ater

Su

pplie

s C

onte

mpo

rary

and

futu

re p

roje

ctio

ns

of w

ater

with

draw

als

(199

0 -2

025)

for

pota

ble

use

in u

rban

sec

tors

Voro

smar

ty e

t al 2

000,

Sec

kler

, et a

l 19

98 (I

WM

I), C

IESI

N 2

004

0.1

x 0.

1 de

gree

; arc

-se

cond

glo

bal g

rid

R

equi

res

anal

ysis

to d

istri

bute

cou

ntry

leve

l dem

and

valu

es a

cros

s ur

ban

popu

latio

n

Irrig

atio

n C

onte

mpo

rary

and

futu

re p

roje

ctio

ns

(199

0 -2

025)

for i

rriga

tion

wat

er

Voro

smar

ty e

t al 2

000,

Sec

kler

, et a

l 19

98 (I

WM

I), R

aman

kutty

, et.

al.,

5 m

in x

5 m

in g

loba

l gr

id

R

equi

res

anal

ysis

to d

istri

bute

cou

ntry

leve

l dem

and

valu

es a

cros

s irr

igat

ed c

ropl

and

9

dem

and

2008

; The

nkab

ail,e

t al,

2008

(GIA

M)

Indu

stria

l Use

C

onte

mpo

rary

and

futu

re p

roje

ctio

ns

(199

0 -2

025)

of w

ater

dem

and

for

indu

stria

l use

Voro

smar

ty e

t al 2

000,

Sec

kler

, et a

l 19

98 (I

WM

I), V

asso

lo a

nd D

oll,

2005

0.

5 x

0.5

degr

ee; a

rc-

seco

nd g

loba

l grid

Req

uire

s an

alys

is to

dis

tribu

te c

ount

ry le

vel d

eman

d va

lues

acr

oss

indu

stria

l loc

atio

ns

Impr

oved

dr

inkin

g wa

ter

and

sani

tatio

n

Perc

ent i

mpr

oved

drin

king

wat

er a

nd

sani

tatio

n by

cou

ntry

U

NIC

EF/W

MO

Joi

nt M

onito

ring

Prog

ram

me

Cou

ntry

-leve

l dat

a

Req

uire

s di

strib

utio

n w

ithin

cou

ntry

2. POLL

UTIO

N OF

WAT

ER

SUPP

LY A

ND

INLA

ND

WAT

ERW

AYS

Nitro

gen

Load

s N

itrog

en lo

ads

to th

e la

ndsc

ape

incl

udin

g hu

man

, liv

esto

ck, f

ertil

izer

, de

posi

tion

and

fixat

ion

for p

re-

indu

stria

l and

con

tem

pora

ry c

ondi

tions

From

Gre

en e

t al.

2004

30

X30

arc-

seco

nd

glob

al g

rid

N

o fu

rther

pro

cess

ing

requ

ired

Ph

osph

orou

s Po

int a

nd n

on-p

oint

sou

rce

dist

ribut

ed

P lo

ads

Har

rison

et a

l 200

5 or

Bou

wm

an e

t al

., 20

09 (i

n pr

ogre

ss)

0.5X

0.5

degr

ee g

loba

l gr

id

R

equi

res

high

er re

solu

tion

lives

tock

dis

tribu

tion

data

or

resa

mpl

ing

to fi

ner s

cale

Pest

icide

s To

tal p

estic

ides

at c

ount

ry-le

vel f

rom

U

N F

AO s

patia

lly d

istri

bute

d ov

er

"man

aged

" cro

plan

d.

2005

Env

ironm

enta

l Sus

tain

abilit

y In

dex,

Ram

anku

tty, e

t. al

., 20

08

5X5

arc-

min

ute

glob

al

grid

No

furth

er p

roce

ssin

g re

quire

d

Me

rcur

y M

ercu

ry d

epos

ition

to th

e la

nd

Selin

et a

l., 2

008

2X2.

5 de

gree

glo

bal

grid

Req

uire

s re

sam

plin

g to

fine

r sca

le

La

nd E

rosio

n /

Sedi

men

ts

Rat

es o

f lan

d er

osio

n ba

sed

on a

re

latio

nshi

p be

twee

n po

pula

tion

dens

ity a

nd v

ulne

rabi

lity

to w

ater

er

osio

n.

Rei

ch, e

t al,

2001

2X

2 ar

c-m

inut

e gl

obal

gr

id

N

o fu

rther

pro

cess

ing

requ

ired

So

il Sa

liniza

tion

Elec

trica

l con

duct

ivity

use

d as

pro

xy

for s

oil s

alin

ity

Batje

s, 2

005,

ISR

IC-W

ISE

vers

ion

3.0

deriv

ed s

oil p

rope

rties

5X

5 ar

c-m

inut

e gl

obal

gr

id

N

o fu

rther

pro

cess

ing

requ

ired

Or

gani

c Loa

ds

(BOD

) O

rgan

ic lo

ads

(BO

D) c

alcu

late

d fro

m

sew

ered

nitr

ogen

load

s an

d us

ing

a BO

D:N

ratio

bas

ed o

n tre

atm

ent l

evel

.

Gre

en, e

t al.,

200

4; J

anss

en e

t al,

2002

and

Hor

an e

t al,

1994

30

X30

arc-

seco

nd

glob

al g

rid

N

o fu

rther

pro

cess

ing

requ

ired

Po

tent

ial

Acid

ifica

tion

Acid

equ

ival

ents

cal

cula

ted

for N

Ox

and

SOx

depo

sitio

n an

d co

mbi

ned

to

crea

te a

sin

gle

pote

ntia

l aci

dific

atio

n da

tase

t.

Den

tene

r et a

l 200

6 0.

5X0.

5 de

gree

glo

bal

grid

Req

uire

s hi

gher

reso

lutio

n da

ta o

r res

ampl

ing

to fi

ner

scal

e

Th

erm

al Po

llutio

n /

Ther

moe

lectri

c Co

olin

g

Ther

mal

impa

cts

from

pow

er p

lant

co

olin

g; w

ater

with

draw

als

and

cons

umpt

ive

wat

er u

se o

f the

rmal

po

wer

sta

tions

.

Vass

olo

and

Dol

l, 20

05

0.

5X0.

5 de

gree

glo

bal

grid

Req

uire

s hi

gher

reso

lutio

n da

ta o

r res

ampl

ing

to fi

ner

scal

e

3.

WAT

ERSH

ED

DIST

URBA

NCE

Agric

ultu

re

Land

use

Dist

ribut

ion

Map

ping

of a

ctiv

e cr

opla

nds

incl

udin

g irr

igat

ed a

nd ra

infe

d cr

opla

nds

Ram

anku

tty, e

t. al

., 20

08;

Then

kaba

il,et

al,

2008

(GIA

M)

5X5

and

10X1

0 ar

c-m

inut

e gl

obal

grid

s

No

furth

er p

roce

ssin

g re

quire

d

Im

perv

ious

ness

Im

perv

ious

ness

Sur

face

Are

a ca

lcul

ated

from

the

Glo

bal D

istri

butio

n an

d D

ensi

ty o

f Con

stru

cted

Im

perv

ious

Sur

face

s

Elvi

dge

et a

l. 20

07

30X3

0 ar

c-se

cond

gl

obal

grid

No

furth

er p

roce

ssin

g re

quire

d

W

etlan

ds an

d W

etlan

d Di

s-co

nnec

tivity

Perc

ent o

f wet

land

occ

upie

d by

cr

opla

nd a

nd im

perv

ious

are

a

Lehn

er a

nd D

oll,

2004

, Ram

anku

tty,

2008

, Elv

idge

et a

l., 2

007

2X2

arc-

min

ute

glob

al

grid

No

furth

er p

roce

ssin

g re

quire

d

Li

vest

ock

Dens

ity

Live

stoc

k de

nsity

cal

cula

ted

from

a

map

of d

omes

ticat

ed a

nim

al

dist

ribut

ion

(Ler

ner,

1988

) wei

ghte

d by

Gre

en e

t al.

2004

0.

5X0.

5 de

gree

glo

bal

grid

Req

uire

s hi

gher

reso

lutio

n liv

esto

ck d

istri

butio

n da

ta o

r re

sam

plin

g to

fine

r sca

le

10

anim

al n

itrog

en e

xcre

tion

rate

s (s

ee

Gre

en e

t. al

, 200

4).

Fish

Cat

ch

Pres

sure

FA

O F

ishS

tat c

ount

ry le

vel c

atch

st

atis

tics

dist

ribut

ed a

ccor

ding

to

disc

harg

e an

d N

PP.

FAO

, 200

8; F

oley

et a

l. 19

96,

Kuch

arik

et a

l. 20

00; W

isse

r et a

l, 20

08

0.5X

0.5

degr

ee g

loba

l gr

id

R

equi

res

high

er re

solu

tion

data

or r

esam

plin

g to

fine

r sc

ale

Inva

sive f

ish

spec

ies

richn

ess

Prox

y fo

r oth

er in

vasi

ves

(e.g

. zeb

ra

mus

sels

; pla

nts)

Le

Prie

ur e

t al.

2008

Ba

sin-

scal

e; a

vaila

ble

toda

y as

3 c

ateg

orie

s of

in

vasi

on le

vels

Ea

rly 2

009,

con

tinuo

us v

aria

ble

valu

es e

xpec

ted

to b

e re

leas

ed. N

o fu

rther

Inva

sive

spec

ies as

fra

ctio

n of

na

tive s

pecie

s

Prox

y fo

r effe

ctive

impa

ct o

f inv

asiv

es

(e.g

. zeb

ra m

usse

ls; p

lant

s)

LePr

ieur

et a

l. 20

08

Basi

n-sc

ale;

ava

ilabl

e to

day

as 3

cat

egor

ies

of

inva

sive

ness

Ea

rly 2

009,

con

tinuo

us v

aria

ble

valu

es e

xpec

ted

to b

e re

leas

ed. N

o fu

rther

Fres

hwat

er

aqua

cultu

re

prod

uctio

n

FAO

Fis

hSta

t cou

ntry

-leve

l aq

uacu

lture

sta

tistic

s, d

istri

bute

d ac

cord

ing

to d

isch

arge

FAO

200

8; M

cInt

yre

et a

l. in

pr

epar

atio

n

0.5X

0.5

degr

ee g

loba

l gr

id

R

equi

res

high

er re

solu

tion

data

or r

esam

plin

g to

fine

r sc

ale.

Als

o re

quire

s fu

rther

refin

emen

t of d

istri

butio

n al

gorit

hm.

Amph

ibian

di

strib

utio

ns

Glo

bal m

aps

of ra

nge

and

stat

us o

f ea

ch o

f 591

8 am

phib

ian

spec

ies.

http

://w

ww

.glo

bala

mph

ibia

ns.o

rg/

Poly

gon

and

poin

t

No

furth

er p

roce

ssin

g re

quire

d

Fres

hwat

er

turtl

e di

strib

utio

ns

Glo

bal m

aps

of ra

nge

and

stat

us o

f ev

ery

fresh

wat

er tu

rtle

spec

ies.

Dr.

Kurt

A. B

uhlm

ann,

the

Sava

nnah

R

iver

Eco

logy

Lab

orat

ory,

the

Uni

vers

ity o

f Geo

rgia

and

the

IUC

N-

SSC

and

CI/C

ABS

Glo

bal R

eptil

e As

sess

men

t (pr

elim

inar

y re

sults

). Ec

oreg

ion

sum

mar

ies

avai

labl

e at

w

ww

.feow

.org

Vario

us re

solu

tions

No

furth

er p

roce

ssin

g re

quire

d. T

he d

ata

are

not y

et

freel

y av

aila

ble,

but

eco

regi

onal

sum

mar

ies

are

avai

labl

e fro

m T

NC

- or

igin

al d

ata

prov

ider

s ne

ed to

gi

ve p

erm

issi

on fo

r use

.

Fres

hwat

er fi

sh

dist

ribut

ions

by

EcoR

egio

n

Glo

bal s

ynth

esis

of d

istri

butio

n an

d di

vers

ity o

f fre

shw

ater

fish

spe

cies

. Ab

ell e

t al.

2008

Bio

Scie

nce;

ht

tp://

ww

w.fe

ow.o

rg

Ecor

egio

ns (4

26)

N

o fu

rther

pro

cess

ing

requ

ired.

The

dat

a ar

e no

t yet

fre

ely

avai

labl

e, b

ut w

ill be

dur

ing

2009

from

WW

F-TN

C te

am.

Croc

odilia

n di

strib

utio

ns b

y Ec

oreg

ion

Glo

bal s

ynth

esis

of d

istri

butio

n an

d di

vers

ity o

f cro

codi

lian

spec

ies

in

fresh

wat

ers.

Ecor

egio

nal s

umm

arie

s ba

sed

on

spec

ies

rang

e m

aps

avai

labl

e fro

m

the

IUC

N-S

SC C

roco

dile

Spe

cial

ist

Gro

up a

nd D

r. Ad

am B

ritto

n, W

ildlif

e M

anag

emen

t Int

erna

tiona

l, an

d th

e U

nive

rsity

of F

lorid

a.

Ecor

egio

ns (4

26)

N

o fu

rther

pro

cess

ing

requ

ired.

Eco

regi

onal

sum

mar

y da

ta a

re a

vaila

ble

from

TN

C's

Cen

ter f

or G

loba

l Tr

ends

.

Mam

mal

dist

ribut

ions

G

loba

l spe

cies

rang

es a

nd

cons

erva

tion

stat

us in

clud

ing

fresh

wat

er-a

ssoc

iate

d sp

ecie

s

Glo

bal M

amm

al A

sses

smen

t (IU

CN

) Po

lygo

ns a

nd p

oint

s

N

o fu

rther

pro

cess

ing

requ

ired.

Dat

a sh

ould

be

com

ing

on li

ne b

y D

ecem

ber 2

008.

4.

BIOL

OGIC

AL

FACT

ORS

Fres

hwat

er fi

sh

dist

ribut

ions

by

basin

Nea

rly-g

loba

l com

pila

tion

of

dist

ribut

ion

and

dive

rsity

of f

resh

wat

er

fish

spec

ies.

Als

o in

clud

es in

vasi

ve

fish

spec

ies.

LePr

ieur

et a

l. 20

08 P

LoS

Biol

ogy

Ba

sins

(108

8)

N

o fu

rther

pro

cess

ing

requ

ired.

How

ever

, acc

ess

to

the

data

is re

stric

ted

by th

e Fr

ench

team

that

col

lect

ed

it (S

. Bro

sse,

T. O

berd

orf).

11

TABL

E 2B

: Maj

or d

ata

cent

ers

from

whi

ch k

ey d

ata

sets

can

be

secu

red

for a

dditi

onal

them

atic

cov

erag

e. S

ome

of th

ese

cent

ers

have

alre

ady

prov

ided

crit

ical

inpu

ts fr

om w

hich

th

e Th

eme/

Driv

er c

ombi

natio

ns h

ave

been

ass

embl

ed (e

.g. f

low

dis

torti

on u

sing

arc

hive

d riv

er d

isch

arge

dat

a).

| D

ATA

CENT

ER

|

CLA

SSES

OF

HOLD

INGS

|

RE

FERE

NCE

Web

site

| CI

ESIN

/SED

AC

Glo

bal p

opul

atio

n fro

m 1

990-

2015

G

loba

l GD

P di

strib

utio

ns b

ased

on

SRES

sce

nario

s Su

stai

nabi

lity

Indi

cato

rs –

ESI

, EPI

, EVI

, NR

MI,

HAN

PP

Haz

ard

Vuln

erab

ility

map

s –

drou

ght,

flood

, ear

thqu

ake,

cyc

lone

, lan

dslid

e, v

olca

no

Pove

rty a

nd F

ood

Secu

rity

map

ping

– fo

od s

uppl

y, in

fant

mor

talit

y, u

nsat

isfie

d ne

eds

Biod

iver

sity

– s

peci

es d

istri

butio

n, v

eget

atio

n/la

nd c

over

, wild

are

as

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12

Figure 2. Calculation scheme to develop an aggregate GBI-water benefits estimate. Global maps of key drivers, identified to hold impact on water provisioning services and ecosystem integrity were identified, geospatially rectified, routed down digital river networks, and transformed into a set of normalized indicators. A total of 23 individual drivers (from 36 in Table 2), organized into 4 theme areas, which contributed to the Human Water System (HWS) and Biodiversity River Health (BD-RH) aggregate scores were used here. The calculation can be expressed as a benefits accounting or its "inverse", an impairment/threat score.

Figure 3. Results of a preliminary mapping exercise exploring the level of impairment of benefits to River Health and Biodiversity (RH-BD) and Human Water Supply (HWS) using entries from Table 1 and the calculation system described above. Top panel shows the biodiversity-river health metric (with the color bar, reading left-to-right indicating increased insult). Bottom panel is a difference map (with the RH-BD threat index subtracted from HWS index; former map not shown). The color bar inset corresponds to mapped areas where threats to HWS are greater in relative terms than they are to RH-BD and vice versa, as indicated in the diagram. The large areas of deep blue in the N. hemisphere temperate zone indicate a preponderance of threat to ecosystems over threats to human water security. This provisional finding suggests that RAF strategies may need to account for two unique two geographies of threat and possibly two classes of policy intervention.

13

BOX 1: The Global-RIMS Toolkit (Global-Rapid Indicator Mapping System). The Global-RIMS toolkit* exercised in this study represents a geospatial information interface through which users can assemble, visualize, and probe multiple geospatial data sets; compute water and ecosystem state; and tabulate water benefits. The system fully couples basin landscape attributes to river corridors, allowing network-oriented, upstream-downstream calculations to be made. Global-RIMS computing and web strategies incorporate the latest advance-ments in Earth system data processing and management, working in compliance with Open Geospatial Consortium standards. Data interoperability and accessibility are at the core of this system. The ability to store and recall spatial and non-spatial information in standard-ized common formats and serve them to users via well-defined interfaces that can be accessed through a wide range of client-based applications is essential to RIMS functionality. Core functions include:

• Data acquisition from various data providers, some in near real time (e.g. precipitation) • Data pre-processing to conform to standardized data and metadata structures • Data archiving using a directory hierarchy and relational database • Data post-processing to facilitate system functionality (e.g., time pyramid for time-series data,

flexible spatial aggregation/disaggregation [Fekete et al. 2001] to "telescope" HydroSHEDS high resolution digital river networks)

• Machine readable interfaces to the database archive • Client tools (client side applications, specialized data viewers, WEB-GUI)

Global-RIMS calculation tool, computing a variety of water services within the Nile Basin (right). The domain of individual countries within the basin are identified and aggregate summary statistics computed. The topological network of digital rivers enables upstream-downstream contrasts to be quantified, such as water consumption, flow diversion, distortion of natural flows, pollutant fluxes, levels of watershed disturbance, etc.

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V. Key Affiliates and Partnerships: Data Providers and Users

The cross-cutting nature of the GBI together with the indicator products envisioned to be developed should catalyze numerous interactions with a broad array of outside partners. Specific agencies and organizational collaborators are listed in Technical Appendix-1, together with an initial group of targeted beneficiaries. The bulk of the partnership does not need to be assembled de novo. Several major scientific and operational organizations have already indicated their interest in working with, for example, the indicator efforts convened under the Global Scale Initiative of the Global Water System Project, as well as a consortium organized under the aegis of the UN World Water Assessment Program, which is also seeking indicators of water system state. Members of the consulting team that prepared this report either participate in or lead these efforts.

VI. Conclusions and Recommendations

This brief report has presented a strategy for incorporating globally available, geospatial indicators-- as a GBI Water Benefits Index-- into an RAF for Transboundary Freshwater Basins in the GEF International Waters Focal Area. While the emphasis here has been on GBI-relevant data resources for Transboundary Freshwater Basins, the report demonstrates how an appropriately designed indicator system could fit into a broader RAF framework that eventually will incorporate GPI elements and that can interact with other IW components and GEF Focal Areas. Details of a tradeoff assessment could not be provided here but such assessment is the next logical step in the development of the framework. The GBI activity is most productively based on sound partnerships of data providers and users, in this case RAF designers, together with a technical execution team. Capacity building should also be considered. A preliminary analysis, while admittedly not fully comprehensive, was useful in identifying limits on the use existing data resources and highlighted challenges toward developing a fully functional GBI basin water benefits accounting system. The analysis demonstrated that an integrated mapping activity to generate GBI-relevant outputs is both feasible and imminent: an 8-km resolution GBI indicator assessment focusing on year 2000 to present and with time-varying monthly steps or 8-10-year contemporary climatology appears feasible. Additional assessment of future conditions, including the impact of climate change, population growth, economic development could be built directly onto this capability. An integrated benefits accounting system could be developed over a 2-5 year period. Targeted Outputs:

Information Technology Products • Operational version of the GBI accounting system, joining key elements of existing toolkits • Individual data bases, calculation procedures, mapped indicator outputs, summary statistics • Diagnostic tools for locating potential inconsistencies in the integrated data compendia • Technical documentation • Website to promote the GBI indicator work; links to the RAF for IW and other focal areas • Peer-reviewed scientific papers analyzing and applying GBI indicator products

Major Data Bank and Other Information Products • National Water Accounts and Water Report Cards, summarizing by country water fluxes, pollutant

load and variables to be used to define the water resource base • Monthly anomalies, water extremes, and hydrologic, pollutant, biodiversity "hot spots", 2000-present • Geographies of existing, new, and planned hydraulic infrastructure (e.g. dams, interbasin transfers) as

they affect upstream-downstream stakeholders • Operational view of basin, regional, continental, global water stress and populations exposed • Green/blue water use estimates in agriculture, annual virtual water trade and other elements (Table 1). • Scenario analysis of future conditions, including assessment of climate change, population growth,

economic development, planned development of waterways, etc.

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Key Recommendations for Next 2-5 Years:

• Convene a standing GBI design team consisting of chief data providers, GBI indicator toolkit developers, and RAF experts to (a) confirm the scope and structure of the proposed high resolution GBI water benefits accounting strategy, (b) agree on final technical approach, and (c) identify particular issues and/or basins of interest; assemble key partners from those listed in Section V.

• Identify core data sets and prepare as necessary for incorporation into the GBI benefits estimator. • Design and incorporate into the GBI indicator system specific technical capabilities and functionality,

as determined by the design team, and linked to other elements of the RAF frame. • Convene meetings of experts or solicit advice through other means to support an independent peer-

review to provide QA/QC on all data holdings • Execute focused workshops to develop GBI indicators using the vetted data holdings; these could be

convened around particular themes and/or on specific drainage basins or classes of drainage basins (e.g. drought-prone basins in sub-Saharan Africa, rapidly developing basins in Asia, etc.).

• Outreach to create a partnership of local experts who can provide QA/QC, insight into conditions-on-the-ground and thusly guide the RAF by relying suitably on local knowledge.

• Train local partners in the use of the GBI indicator system, arming them with state-of-the-art data resources; a certification process on the use of the GBI indicator system is advised.

• Develop a web presence for the activity, providing data sets, key results, newsworthy stories regarding basin ecosystem services, and training materials.

• Prepare published policy briefs and consult target constituency groups, potential funding agencies. • Begin planning tradeoff analysis and identify data & technical needs associated with such.

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ACRONYMS BD-RH Biodiversity – River Health EPA Environmental Protection Agency EPI Environmental Performance Index ESI Environmental Sustainability Index FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GBI GEF Benefits Index GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of Systems GIS Geographical Information System Global-RIMS Global Rapid Indicator Mapping System GPI GEF Performance Index HDI Human Development Index HWS Human Water Security IAHS International Association of Hydrological Science ICSU International Council of Science NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NSF National Science Foundation NRC National Research Council NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control RAF Resource Allocation Framework UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization UNICEF United Nations Childrens Fund WHO World Health Organization WWDR World Water Development Report

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