8/12/2019 Indias Word - Crisis in Crimea

1/3

Political Developments in Crimea

Crimea, souther province of Ukr - 60% ethnic russian , considered pro Russian, hosts Russia black sea fleets and is Russia's access to mediterranean

West sees this as violation of Intl law.

Cimea P passed resolution to seccede from Ukr and Join Russia.---------

Q. Who has the upper hand in Ukraine - west - promoting democracy, human rightsand independence or Russia - having geopolitical interests.?

Russia has upper hand.

3 vital interest which make Russia take the extra stp -1. Black sea fleet in Crimea. Russia as a naval power would practically

cease to exist. (Crimea is given to Russia on long lease)2. Lot of critical military facilities are in Ukraine. Russian industria

l capbility - space,military etc will be degraded if Ukr not w/ Rus.3. No natural border b/w Ukraine and Russia and hostile presence in Ukra

ine(by joining NATO) would not be in Russia's security interest.

Q. Russia says its C authorized to protect Russians everywhere? Are strategic in

terests or protection to Russian is the priority?

40% - Russians in Ukraine and 30-40% majority are in East Ukraine and all majorindustrial centers concntrtd in RUssian Maj areas.

East wanted closer interaction with Rus.

So, though Crimea is indisp for Rus fleet and is strategically imp. But, East Ukr is the source of economic ....

--------

Q. To what extent compet b/w west n Rus - affecting Ukr? 2004 orange rev was enc

ouraged financially by Us and Eu and Russia reacted by discrediting the Revolution. Then US came back w/ Independncemovement and now Russia reactd by going into Crimea.

Ukraine is of # 1 interest to RUssia. If Ukr becomes part of Russia - its population will add to Russia's declining population. And so is a huge resource.

Tussle b/w West n Russia and Ukr has become a pawn in this geopolitical game. Ukr has1. East Ukraine with majority being Russins with pro-Russia tendency2. While West and Central Ukraine with Russians in minority want closer ties w/EU and West.

Ukr has huge debts. And in case of economy - East Ukr is sustainable but West will need financial assistance. Europe's energy lines from RUssia pas thru uKr andthey want stability in Ukr.European wanted settlement...

---------

Q. What could be the future? After Crim joining Rus and rest of Ukr being a democracy?

8/12/2019 Indias Word - Crisis in Crimea

2/3

8/12/2019 Indias Word - Crisis in Crimea

3/3