Azees. N

Overview of Power Sector

INDIA & KERALA

India- Overall Population 1027,015,247 531,277,078 males and 495,738,169

females. India -the second country in the world after China to cross the one billion mark

Population growth rate-1.9 % GDP 21479 billion Rs GDP Growth rate 5.4 %

Prices and Inflation

1981 base 1991 2000 2001 2003

% change consumer price 12.8 3.4 3.8 4.2

India- Primary Commercial Energy

Hydro3%

Nuclear1%

Oil Import20%

Oil (D)13% Gas

10%

Coal53%

Coal

Gas

Oil(D)

OilImportHydro

Nuclear

Even after 50 years , we could not bring down our import oil content

Energy and Quality of Life Energy needed for development &

improved quality of life Life Expectancy at birth Education/Literacy Infant Mortality Rate Income (GDP/capita)

PER CAPITA ElectricityIndia- Average, 0.1 kW of installed capacity/capitaWorld –Average, installed capacity 0.53 kW/capita

Per Capita electricity consumption India- about 360 kWh/capita/year Nepal, Bangladesh & Bhutan –lower than 100 US - 18000, UK- 14000World average electricity consumption- 2100 kWh/capita/year

India –Installed Capacity

Electric power generating stations under utilities : 112706 MW ( as on 31-07-2004)

Less than 4 % of the WORLD CAPACITY

29625 MW hydro,78491 MW thermal 2720 MW nuclear 1870 MW wind

Share of Power Installed Capacity in India

Diesel0.7%

Wind1.4%

Nuclear2.6%

Gas8.2%

Coal62%

Hydro25%

Hydro

Coal

Gas

DieselWind

Nuclear

Capcity Growth in India

1362 465314709

30214

66086

101154

107972104917

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

MW

1947 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2002 2003

POWER GENERATION IN INDIAYear                          Generation (BUs)1991-92                          2871992-93                          3011993-94                          3241994-95                          3511995-96                          3801996-97                          3941997-98                          4201998-99                          4481999-00                          4802000-01                          499.452001-02                          515.27

2002-03 531.4

KERALA

Installed Capacity       3043.44 MW

K.S.E.B :                     2031.6 MW . NTPC :                       804 MW Private :                         207.84 MW

74.02

200

20

323

390 0

0

100

200

300

400

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

STATEPRIVATETOTAL

CAPACITY ADDITION

357 348 332 331 312273

387440

360 364 347 333 327280

416

488

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Apr'02 May'02 June'02 July'02 Aug'02 Sep'02 Oct'02 Nov'02

Entitlement (MUs) Drawal (MUs)

ENERGY PURCHASED FROM OUTSIDE

PERCAPITA CONSUMPTION

KERALA 359 Units

TN 480

KARNATAKA 387

AP 391

ALL INDIA 360

STATUS OF VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION

FULLY ELECTRIFIED

% OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS HAVING ELECTRICITY

NUMBER OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS: 40,30,870

%OF HOUSEHOLDS HAVING ELECTRICITY : 41.95

ELECTRIFICATION STATUS

KERALA POWER

Required Available

Maximum Demand 2757 2316 MW

Energy 38.9 34.27 MU

T & D losses         17.21 %

Technical Min 8 %

KERALA ENERGY SHORTAGE

17.217.2

17.4

17.617.9

21.420.120

0

20

40

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

KERALA T& D LOSSES

CAPACITY ADDITION IN LAST 5 YEARS

0

5001000

1500

2000

25003000

3500

AP KAR KER TN CEN

MW

NAME OF PROJ ECT CAPACITY (MW) STATUSSTATE SECTOR 100.00

KUTTIYADI AUG. HEP 100.00

Private Sector 500 MW ?

Work likely to start

shortly

PROJECTION IN NEXT 5 YEAR PLAN

Electricity- Characteristics High Losses – T & D & theft ~30% in most

SEBs Many rural households do not have access

to electricity –about 40% in India Electricity Sector – from State Controlled Monopoly -Transition – to Regulated Sector with privatisation Subsidised electricity to agriculture, low

usage residential- Industry sector is penalized

Electricity Sector SEB annual loss 2000-01 Rs 20,500

crores . Gap of 92 p/kWh - between cost of

supply and revenue Peak shortage 13%, Energy

shortage 7.5% Estimated requirement of Installed

Capacity 200,000 MW by 2012

Energy Ladder – Cooking Fuels

Fuelwood

Kerosene

LPG, Electricity

Coal

Increasing Income

Con

veni

enc

e

The national objective :

"Power for All" by 2012

Ministry of Power has targeted 100% village electrification by 2007 and to provide access to electricity for all households by 2012.

CAPACITY ADDITION ? With 1 lakh MW Capacity

Energy shortage 7.5 %Peak Shortage 13 %

What we require by the year 2012 2 lakh MWi.e. We have to ADD 1 lakh MW CAPACITY Rs 8 Crores X 1 lakh within 10 years!Where is the Money ?

World Bank ? ADB? ALL SEBs under huge loss. Who will

lend money to loss making units ?

Stick to their conditions ? De regulation? Re structuring ?

PRIVATISATION ?

Sluggish Experience

TATA ? BSEB ?

TARIFF - Subsidy -Profit

IPPs – S.Asian Experience Hub Power Co. 1292 MW–Pakistan – initial

tariff 6.86c/kWh – three year long dispute –court cases. Resolved with tariff renegotiated to 5.5c/kWh

India – Initial mechanism – Fast Track Projects –Negotiated -Cogentrix (Karnataka) MOU July 1992, $1.3 billion 1000MW thermal power plant- Dec 1999 –withdrew from power plant

Enron – Dhabol Power Corporation

What is the Green Solution?

Energy conservation > Energy

ShortageDSM EE

Load Management > Peak Shortage

Technology/Research Challenges

Demand Estimation Methodology - administered prices, tariff policy

Eco friendly Technology – Non polluting -Clean Technology Development

Cost Effective Remote Metering Distributed Generation – Grid

Interconnection- Non conventional sources LM options for Peak Power Planning

Summing Up Power sector critical for development Energy scarcity, Capital scarcity,

environmental impacts Need to explore alternatives

Energy Conservation Demand Side Management NON Conventional Energy Sources

Load Management