Indian Gas Scenario 2011
-
Upload
himadribanerji60 -
Category
Documents
-
view
222 -
download
0
Transcript of Indian Gas Scenario 2011
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
1/30
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
2/30
THE ENERGY CH LLENGETOTAL COMMERCIAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS
YEAR TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY(MMTOE)
7% GDP 8% GDP
2006-07 385 394
2011-12 505 5372016-17 653 718
2026 - 27 1060 1248
2031-32 1333 1620
- FOUR FOLD GROWTH
DRAFT REPORT - INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY PLANNING COMMISSION
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
3/30
THE ENERGY CH LLENGEELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS
YEAR INSTALLED CAPACITY - MW
7% GDP 8% GDP
2003-04 131424 131424
2006-07 149806 152610
2011-12 206757 2199922016-17 276143 305623
2021-22 368592 424744
2026 - 27 480694 574748
2031-32 627088 778095
- FIVE TO SIX FOLD INCREASE
DRAFT REPORT - INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY PLANNING COMMISSION
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
4/30
THE ENERGY CH LLENGEREQUIREMENT OF COAL AND GASPOWER SECTOR
YEAR COAL (MMT) GAS (MMTOE) GAS(MMSCMD)
7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 8%
2003-04 318 318 13 13 39 39
2011-12 366 375 17 18 51 542016-17 455 493 36 41 108 124
2021-22 678 814 48 58 145 175
2026-27 885 1133 69 89 208 268
2031-32 1096 1478 100 134 301 404
NON POWER GAS DEMAND = 227 MMSCMD TO 274 MMSCMD
GAS DEMAND OVER NEXT 25 YEARS = 528 MMSCMD TO 678 MMSCMD
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
5/30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
72/73
74/75
76/77
78/79
80/81
82/83
84/85
86/87
88/89
90/91
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
Years
BCM
BOMBAYHIGH
SOUTHBASSEIN
ACCELERATEDDEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE
LNG IMPORTSMAR -- 04
INDI N G S SECTOR M JOR MILESTONES
KG FINDS
MYANMAR FIND
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
6/30
INDI N G S M RKET OVERVIEW
DOMESTIC SUPPLIES - 74 MMSCMD
IMPORTS (LNG) - 18 MMSCMD
DEMAND POTENTIAL - 150 MMSCMD
MAJOR PLAYERS
E&P -
- ONGC, OIL, RELIANCE, BRITISH GAS, CAIRN, NIKO,GSPC
LNG -
- PETRONET LNG LTD (JV OF PSU,s, GDF, ADB)
- SHELL HAZIRA LNG LTD (SHELL, TOTALFINA-ELF)
- RATNAGIRI PROJECT
GAS TRANSMISSION & MARKETING - GAIL (INDIA) LTD
REGIONAL / RETAIL - MGL, IGL, GCC, GSPC, AGC, TNGCL,PLAYERS BGL, GSPL, GGL & OTHERS
92 MMSCMD
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
7/30
G S END USE P TTERN
42%
31%
4%
13%
10%
POWER FERTILIZER SPONGE IRON
OTHERS I.C./SHRINKAGE
CONSUMPTION - 92 MMSCMD
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
8/30
TYPICAL PIPELINE SYSTEMS
MAINTRANSMISSIO
N SYSTEM
REGIONALTRANSMISSIO
N SYSTEM
DISTRIBUTIONSYSTEM
Typical Pressure
Range (Bar)
40 to 70 15 to 40 10 to 0.025
Diameter 24 to 48 Up to 22 Down to 2
Material of
construction
Steel Steel Steel or HDPE
Pipe
Others Supply to regional
system or large
customer
Supply to medium
scale consumers &
feed to distribution
systems
Supply to small
consumers &
residential users
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
9/30
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
10/30
CROSS BORDER
GAS PIPELINES
MYANMAR- INDIAGAS PIPELINE
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
11/30
LENGTH: 1500 KMDIAMETER: 36
NO CROSS BORDER AND POLITICAL ISSUES WITH
BANGLADESH GOVERNMENT.
ACCESS TO POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS IN NORTH-EAST INDIA,
NORTH - BENGAL AND BIHAR
OPPORTUNITY OF CONNECTING TRIPURA AND OTHER NEGAS FIELDS.
LONGEST AMONG ON-LAND PIPELINE OPTIONS.
HILLY TERRAIN.
ON-SHORE PIPELINE : MYANMARNE - INDIA
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
12/30
A. Offshore Pipelines- Shallow water (200~250 m)
- Deep water (1560 m)
- Deep water (2210 m)
B. Onshore Pipelines
- Via Chittagaon - Coxs Bazaar(Bangladesh)
- Via Tripura (India) - Dhaka(Bangladesh)- Through North-East Indian territory
C. LNG Marine Route
D. CNG Marine Route
Within EEZ of Bangladesh
Outside EEZ of Bangladesh
OPTIONS OF GAS EVACUATIONFROM MYANMAR TO INDIA8 NOS.
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
13/30
BLOCK A 1
SITTWE LANDFALLPOINT MYANMAR
MYAYNGU KYAN
PARADIP
HALDIAALT I VIA CHATTGAON/ COXS BAZAR)
ALT II VIA TRIPURA
OFF-SHORE SHALLOW WATER
OFF-SHORE DEEP WATER (WITHIN EEZ)
OFF-SHORE DEEP WATER (OUTSIDE EEZ)ONSHORE ROUTE VIA. BANGLADESH
ONSHORE VIA. N E INDIA
LNG OPTION
CNG OPTION
PROPOSEDJAGDISHPUR HALDIA PIPELINE
Gaya
Jagdishpur
MYANMAR- INDIA GAS PIPELINE
OPTIONS OF GAS EVACUATIONFROM MYANMAR TO INDIA
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
14/30
IranPakistan- India
Gas Pipeline
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
15/30
INDICATIVE IRAN-PAKISTAN- INDIA PIPELINE ROUTE
N
AC-1
JAISALMER
BHONG
ASSALUYAH
AssaluyahPakistan Border 1100KMsPakistan BorderAC1 750KMsAC1India Border 250
KMs
Indicative Pipeline Route
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
16/30
Gas Demand for India: 60-90 MMSCMD
Gas Demand for Pakistan:30-60MMSCMD
Pipeline size: 56
Pipeline Length: 2100 KMS
Capital Cost: Approx.Rs. 29000 Crores.
O&M Cost: 2% of Capital Cost
Transit Fee: to be decided as per the
Energy Charter Treaty (ECT)
SALIENT FEATURES
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
17/30
CROSS BORDER G S PIPELINES
TURKMENISTAN - AFGHANISTAN
- PAKISTAN GAS PIPELINE
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
18/30
PROPOSED ROUTE OF TAP
PIPELINE
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
19/30
SALIENT FEATURES
GAS SUPPLY : 90 MMSCMD
PIPELINE SIZE: 56
PIPELINE LENGTH: 1700 KMS
CAPITAL COST: APPROX. $ 3.3 bn
TRANSIT FEE: AS PER INTERNATIONAL NORMS
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
20/30
Exploration Status35%
29%
18%18%PoorlyExplored
Initiated
Unexplored
WellExplored
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
21/30
Only 18% of the total 3.14 million sq. km. hasbeen extensively explored
< 25% of total prognosticated resources
established
Reserves estimated only in 15 of the 26 basins
Low Drilling Density
Exploration Status
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
22/30
The exploration and production activities
were carried out in various sedimentaryblocks in India by NOCs on nomination
basis till formulation NELP and ML
policies
After formulation of NELP and ML
policies the blocks of sedimentary basins
were awarded for Exploration andproduction activities to NOCs as well as
Private Oil Companies on competitive
bidding.
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
23/30
Delhi
Mumbai
Chennai
Kolkata
Phase-I (93Blocks)Phase-II (21 Blocks)
Development Phase (4Blocks)
Wells Drilled (17Blocks)
StatusofExploration
NELP - 90 Blocks
Pre-NELP - 28 Blocks
Total 118 Blocks
4
21
93
Dev. Phase
Phase-I
Phase-II
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
24/30
History of Gas Pricing in India Gas a nuisance during production of Oil in early yearsdifficult to get value for it. In 1960s sold for a few rupees
per MCM.
In1970s demand for gas grew in Assam and Gujarat,prices rose. Gas used for applications including as citygas.
ONGC to get revenue from gas priced it on thermalequivalence of alternate fuel. In one factory two different
prices for gas based upon the end use.
Consumer resistance & disputes were settled only aftertwo decades.
In 1987 uniform price for all consumers with special
concession only for the North East region.
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
25/30
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
26/30
Present Prices of Non-APM
GasProducing field Quantity Price (in $/mmbtu)
(in mmscmd) Floor CeilingPanna, Mukta & Tapti 5 4.08
6 3.86
Ravva PSC 2.96 1.75 3.00
Ravva Satellite 1 2.30 3.30
Lakshmi Contract I 3.06 4.46
Contract II 3.68
GSPCL 3.76Regassified LNG at Dahej 3.45
(Before sales tax)
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
27/30
CNG Pricing
Maharashtra Mumbai Rs 20.90 per kg
Mira-Bhayandar Rs 21 per kg
Thane Rs 21.30 per kg
National Capital Region Delhi Rs 18 per kg
Gujarat Ahmedabad Rs 25.53 per Kg
Baroda Rs 20.92 per Kg
Bharuch
Ankaleshwar
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
28/30
Some Comments
Myanmar had offered well-head gas at$2.52/mmbtu Excluding processing and transportation costs
India wanted Iran gas landed at $2/mmbtu All put together, the cost of gas at the Indian border is
expected to be above $5 per mmbtu as Iran wants LNGprice for pipeline gas also
NTPC now willing to buy gas at a premium as against the current APM gas price of $ 2.1 per
mmbtu which is in short supply
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
29/30
Demand Assessment -Natural
GasMMSCMD
2007 2010 2012
Power Sector 75 95 110
Fertilizer Sector 50 60 60
Industrial Sector 20 25 30
City Gas Distribution 10 15 15
Total 155 195 215
-
8/12/2019 Indian Gas Scenario 2011
30/30
Demand-Supply Balance
60 60 60
2003-04
2010-11
120
mmscmd75
mmscmd
215
mmscmd
180mmscmd Unmet Demand:
35 mmscmd
Unmet Demand:
45 mmscmd
Demand Supply existing
sources
Supply new
domestic findsLNG
Window of
opportunity
of approx 40
mmscmd