Indian Elections 2014
39
SOCIAL MEDIA BUZZ ANALYSIS REPORT December 2013
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Once again Simplify 360 has come up with an interesting analysis in a report – “Indian Election 2014, Social Media Buzz Analysis Report”. The report analyses and ranks top politicians and political parties based upon the social media buzz and Simplify 360 Social Index. The report analyses the social media buzz of political parties and leaders before and after Delhi Election.
Transcript of Indian Elections 2014
SOCIAL
MEDIA
BUZZ
ANALYSIS
REPORT December 2013
What to expect?
1. Top 10 Politicians
2. Top Political Parties
3. Can social media turn the tables in Indian elections 2014?
4. Uncover the key insights on Elections
Key Findings this December
2.6 Crore – total active reach of social media buzz in
December 2013
BJP wins big on social media; AAP catching up.
With the victory in Delhi elections, Arvind Kejriwal
made it to the No. 1 position among the politicians
Narendra Modi beaten by Kejriwal in December.
Modi slipped to the No. 2 position.
Arvind Kejriwal & AAP are clearly the gainer of buzz
after the Delhi election poll results were declared
TOP 10 POLITICIANS
DECEMBER 2013
TOP 10 POLITICIANS
ARVIND KEJRIWAL
MANMOHAN
SINGH
ARUN JAITLEY
70 73 69 63 68
61 59 56 58
1 Arvind Kejriwal
No. of unique
people talking 1,67,515
Total buzz in
the month 7,84,734
2 Narendra Modi
No. of unique
people talking 1,08,331
Total buzz in
the month 5,36,202
3 Rahul Gandhi
No. of unique
people talking 62,532
Total buzz in
the month 1,94,649
4 Manmohan Singh
No. of unique
people talking 44,637
Total buzz in
the month 99,314
5 Sonia Gandhi
No. of unique
people talking 30,450
Total buzz in
the month 78,008
6 Sheila Dikshit
No. of unique
people talking 24,559
Total buzz in
the month 40,104
8 Harsh Vardhan
No. of unique
people talking 20,852
Total buzz in
the month 53,545
9 Rajnath Singh
No. of unique
people talking 14,436
Total buzz in
the month 33,815
10 Subramanian Swamy
No. of unique
people talking 28,355
Total buzz in
the month 1,00,211
HARSH VARDHAN
61
7 Shashi Tharoor
No. of unique
people talking 17,366
Total buzz in
the month 32,108
Simplify360
Social Index (SSI)
Ranking of politicians based on a politician’s overall score
5 FOLD INCREASE IN BUZZ ON ARVIND KEJRIWAL POST DELHI ELECTION RESULTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
01-12-2013 06-12-2013 11-12-2013 16-12-2013 21-12-2013 26-12-2013 31-12-2013
THO
USA
ND
S
Narendra Modi Arvind Kejriwal Rahul Gandhi Sonia Gandhi
Average mentions per
day on Arvind Kejriwal
Before the Delhi elections poll result 4,933
After the Delhi elections poll result 31,258
Be it the buzz on government formation in Delhi or Arvind Kejriwal to be CM or
people surprised on AAP surpassing the expectations - Arvind Kejriwal has
certainly become the rockstar on social media
Daily mentions of the top 4 most mentioned politicians in December, 2013
ARVIND KEJRIWAL IS CLEARLY THE TOP GAINER OF BUZZ AFTER THE DELHI ELECTION POLL RESULT
4,933
17,195
2,160 3,177
31,258
17,327
7,480
2,324
Arvind Kejriwal Narendra Modi Rahul Sonia Gandhi
Tota
l m
entions
Average Mentions per day Before Delhi Elections poll result
Average Mentions per day After Delhi Elections poll result
Delhi Poll result impact analysis: Comparison of number of mentions of a politician before and
after the declaration of poll result on Dec 8, 2013.
Mentions on Dec 8 onwards is considered as post poll mentions.
TOP TWEETS ON MODI
1
2
3
4
TOP TWEETS ON ARVIND KEJRIWAL
1 2
3
TOP TWEETS ON RAHUL GANDHI
1
2
3
4
Politicians by favorability score
Most loved Least loved
81
78
77
1. ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE
2. SYED SHAHNAWAZ HUSSAIN
3. Y. S. JAGANMOHAN REDDY
Note: Analysis based on the top politicians whose buzz volume is greater than 5K during December month
17
46
39
1. LALU PRASAD YADAV
2. ARUN JAITLEY
3. MULAYAM SINGH YADAV & AKHILESH YADAV
&
Parties
TOP POLITICAL PARTIES
DECEMBER
2013
BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY
79
48
71
39
1 Bharatiya Janata Party
No. of unique people
talking 155,811
Total buzz in the month 963,667
63
3 Indian National Congress
No. of unique people
talking 127,270
Total buzz in the month 435,449
2 Aam Aadmi Party
No. of unique people
talking 102,948
Total buzz in the month 470,223
46
5 CPI (M)
No. of unique people
talking 23,158
Total buzz in the month 38,444
4 NCP
No. of unique people
talking 10,183
Total buzz in the month 18,688
6 Bahujan Samaj Party
No. of unique people
talking 8,145
Total buzz in the month 13,729
TOP POLITICAL PARTIES
Simplify360 Social Index (SSI)
BJP LEADS WITH A WIDE MARGIN; CONSISTENTLY
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
01-12-2013 06-12-2013 11-12-2013 16-12-2013 21-12-2013 26-12-2013 31-12-2013
THO
USA
ND
S
Indian National Congress Bharatiya Janata Party Aam Aadmi Party Communist Party of India (Marxist)
Daily mentions of the top 4 most mentioned political parties in December, 2013
SOCIAL MEDIA SCORE OF MOST PROMINENT POLITICAL PARTIES
Party Name Buzz Volume Unique People
Talking
Simplify360
Social Index (SSI)
Bharatiya Janata Party 9,63,667 1,55,811 79
Aam Aadmi Party 4,70,223 1,02,948 71
Indian National Congress 4,35,449 1,27,270 63
Nationalist Congress Party 18,688 10,183 48
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 38,444 23,158 46
Bahujan Samaj Party 13,729 8,145 39
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 8,513 5,719 38
Biju Janata Dal 6,972 4,848 35
Janata Dal (United) 10,197 6,338 30
Note: Analysis based on the top parties whose buzz volume is greater than 5K during December month
Following is the list of 9 most prominent national and regional parties with their performance stats on social
media. Total score is arrived by considering four broad parameters. Details of the methodology is given in
the appendix
TOP TWEETS ON BJP
1
2
3
4
TOP TWEETS ON AAP
1
2
3
4
TOP TWEETS ON CONGRESS
1
2
3
4
Parties by favorability score
Most loved Least loved
93
79
30
1. BHARATATIYA JANATA PARTY
2. AAM AADMI PARTY
3. BIJU JANATA DAL
Note: Analysis based on the top parties whose buzz volume is greater than 5K during December month
7
12
8
1. JANATA DAL (UNITED)
2. COMMUNIST PARTY OF INDIA (MARXIST)
3. NATIONALIST CONGRESS PARTY
Can social media
Turn the tables in
Indian Elections 2014?
3 Peer recommendations on social media are very powerful
Most people trust their peer recommendations. This peer recommendations can influence a voter’s
decision on whether or not to support a party/politician
90%
90% of consumers trust peer recommendations on social media*
4 Discussions on elections is a hot topic on social media Almost everyday, either a political party or a politician has trended on Twitter signifies how hot is the discussion on
elections in social media
2 2.6 Crore Indians read tweets related to elections
2.6 Crore Indians have read Tweets on elections from their timeline over the past one month. There are
likely chances that this voting population can be influenced by social media discussions
TOP 4 REASONS ON WHY SOCIAL MEDIA IS IMPORTANT
31% of Indian people who are on Twitter have read a Tweet on Indian Elections over the past one month
31%
1 Percentage of Indian voters on Social Media close to votes won by Congress in 2009
In 2009, Congress won Lok sabha election with a vote share of only 28.6% of all the votes casted. So the
presence of 24% of Indian voters on social media is really big to turn the tables in Indian Elections.
Source: www.socialnomics.net
Steps Methodology Calculation Statistics Source
Step 1:
Calculation of
‘People
actual Voting’
Total population of India
1,27,00,00,000
WorldPopulationStatistics.Com
Voting Population 60%
76,20,00,000
Business-Standard.com
Voting Population with card and availability 70%*
53,34,00,000 Assumption
People actual voting 70%*
37,33,80,000 Assumption
Step 2:
Calculation of
‘Percentage
of social
media users
in online
population’
Total Online Population
12,30,00,000
Economictimes.Indiatimes.com
% of Total population Total Online Population/Total
population of India 10% Calculation
Social media users in India
9,10,00,000
TimesofIndia.Indiatimes.com
% of social media users in online population No.of social media users/total
Online Population 74% Calculation
Step3:
Calculation of
% of actual
voters on
Social Media
% Social Media Users w.r.t voting Population Social media users in
India/Voting Population 12% Calculation
% of actual voters on Social Media Social media users in
India/People actually voting 24% Calculation
24% OF ACTUAL VOTERS ARE ON SOCIAL MEDIA
31% of Twitter users in
India have actually read a
tweet on Politics.
Number of People who actually read a tweet on Politics: Globally
Total tweets on Elections: India
Total people talking about elections: India
1 7 2 0 4 4 0 4 6
2 5 8 0 6 6 0 7
3 7 1 0 1 0 1
8 7 8 1 2 7
Number of People who actually read a tweet on Politics: India
, , ,
, , ,
, ,
, ,
Delhi Elections have certainly
triggered many people to talk on
elections, whether it is the above
par performance of AAP or BJP,
social media has become a key
platform for people to raise their
voice
2,10,510
3,20,075
2,61,494
2,23,051
Week 49
Week 50
Week 51
Week 52
Unique people talking: Week on Week basis
*Week starting from Monday
24.1% 23.6% 13.2%
Top 3 States discussing on Indian Elections
%age mentions
from NCT
%age mentions
from Maharashtra
%age mentions
from Karnataka
18% FEMALE
82% MALE
Most of the discussions on
Politics were from Men
Gender wise distribution
As expected, Delhi elections have
fuelled the pace of people
talking on Elections making NCT
as the top region followed by
Maharashtra and Karnataka.
What could possibly
be more important
than what your
consumers [voters] say
about you?”
Mary O’Connell
Director of Global Digital
Marketing, Clorox Brands
“
BUZZ ON INDIAN ELECTIONS IS ON AN INCREASING TREND
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
23-11-2013 28-11-2013 03-12-2013 08-12-2013 13-12-2013 18-12-2013 23-12-2013 28-12-2013
Count Linear (Count)
Delhi elections (Polls) counting day
BUZZ VOLUME AND NUMBER OF SEATS A PARTY WON HAS MODERATE CORRELATION
4,35,449
9,63,667
4,70,223
8
32
28
0
2,00,000
4,00,000
6,00,000
8,00,000
10,00,000
12,00,000
Indian National Congress Bharatiya Janata Party Aam Aadmi Party
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Buzz
Vol
ume
No.o
f Se
ats
Buzz Volume No.of seats won by a party
PARTY NAME BUZZ VOLUME NO.OF SEATS A PARTY WON IN
DELHI ELECTIONS
Bharatiya Janata Party 9,63,667 32
Aam Aadmi Party 4,70,223 28
Indian National Congress 4,35,449 8
BUZZ OPINION DIRECTLY REFLECTS ON BALLOT
24
93 79
8
32 28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Indian National Congress Bharatiya Janata Party Aam Aadmi Party
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Favo
rabili
ty S
core
No.o
f Seats
Favorability Score No.of seats won
PARTY NAME Favorability Score (On a scale of 100)
NO.OF SEATS A PARTY WON
IN DELHI ELECTIONS
Bharatiya Janata Party 93 32
Aam Aadmi Party 79 28
Indian National Congress 24 8 *Sample of data is used for sentiment analysis of parties
APPENDIX
About the Company and
Research Methodology
CAN WE RANK A POLITICIAN/PARTY
BASED ON PEOPLE’S OPINION
ON SOCIAL MEDIA?
Uncover the Simplify360
Social Index (SSI) for ranking a politician/Party
Reasons on why ranking is important?
1. Buzz alone cannot determine the
performance of a politician/party
2. Ranking helps in benchmarking a
politician/party with others
3. Few people generating more buzz
on a politician/party may not
indicate a politician/party has
performed well compared to others
on social media
Simplify360 Social Index (SSI)
AWARENESS SPREAD PROMINENCE FAVORABILITY
A POLITICIAN/PARTY IS RANKED BASED ON FOUR BROAD PARAMETERS
Weights
Volume of buzz Unique People talking about
X% Y%
Quality of Spread
Z%
Number of images or
videos and links
P%
Considers Opinion of
people
Q%
SCORES ARE NORMALIZED AT EACH SUB PARAMETER LEVEL AND AT BROAD PARAMETER LEVEL TO GET THE FINAL SCORE FOR A POLITICIAN/PARTY
Total Twitter mentions and
unique people talking
about a party/politician
are considered for finding
the Awareness score
Measures the quality of
Twitter mentions spread
by considering Total
impressions, total buzz
and unique people talking
about
A measure of how
prominient a politician on
other social media
platforms, which is
measured through Twitter
by considering the links
shared, images and
videos
Measures the extent of
Favourability a
politican/party. Considers
Sentiment in to account
for analyzing the
Favorability score
About the Data:
Timeframe: December 01, 2013 – December 31, 2013
Geography: India
Data sources*:
All the tweet mentions on Indian elections,
parties & politicians were tracked from Twitter
using Simplify360 tool.
Buy the Monthly Elections Summary Report
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