Indian Economy

CURRENT STATE OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY

FEDERATION OF INDIAN CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

DECEMBER 2005

Executive Summery

Industrial production grew at 8.4% in April October period of 2005, slower than the corresponding period of previous year. While manufacturing industry still remained the main driver of industrial growth in September and October 2005 .

Consumers durable production registered a 13.2% increase in the April- October period of 2005, however comparing 2005-06 with 2004-05 we see a decline in growth since July 2005-06.

Capital goods buoyed up recording 16.6% growth in April October 2005. Since September 2005 capital goods grew more than 20% .

Intermediate goods on the other hand exhibited a sharp decline in growth for the April October period of 2005 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

Industries with accelerated growth in April- October of 2005-06 are : Textiles (22%), Beverages (17%), Basic metals( 15%), Transport Equipment (12.6%), Cotton textiles (11.2%), Non metallic mineral products (8.2%).

Some industries registered a slower growth than the industry average. These are Machinery and Equipment (12%), Leather (2%) , Paper (6.4%), Food Products (-4.9%), Non metallic mineral products (8.2%) , Rubber , plastic , petrol , coal ( 2.8%) , Jute (2.4%), Wood (-3.4%), man made textiles (-1.8%), Metal products ( -3.1%),

Performance of the six core infrastructure industries is lower than in the April -October period of previous year. Cement and Finished Steel whereas showed a higher growth in the April- October 2005 compared to the corresponding period of previous year, growing at 7.4% and 11.0% respectively.

Looking at the monthly figures it is found that, in October 2005 finished steel and power have exhibited an increase however Cement have shown decelerating growth. Petroleum refinery has posted a negative growth of 2.5% in October 2005 after a positive growth in the second quarter of 2005.

The number of phones added in November 2005 is 21.83 million, raising the total subscription level to almost 120 million at its historic highs. In November this year, cellular mobile accounted for 19.26 million and fixed line 2.57 million of the total subscription. Additions to the mobile phone network recorded an all time high of 3.51 million in November 2005.

Market sentiments are making the Sensex and Nifty levels attain the all time high. Sentiments firmed up in the opening day of December and Sensex recorded an increase of 12.5% the highest in 23 months reaching 8944 level, and Nifty spiking from 2387 points on 1st of November 2005 to 2699 points in 1st December 2005.

Broad Money remained much higher in April- November 2005 as against the same period previous year.

The borrowing by the government has marginally increased from the previous year with a variation of 1.9% in 2005 from 1.6% in 2004. There has been a rise in the variation in foreign exchange assets of banks until November 2005.

Aggregate deposits also went up sharply in since September 2005. Investments continue to remain lower than in the previous year mainly on account of lower government borrowings. The increase in total credit in April-November 2005 was on account of non-food credit growth.

Gross tax collections have increased at a lower rate in April-November 2005 as against the collection in the same period of 2004. Higher Tax collections were recorded by Corporation tax 49.8%, Customs 21% and other taxes 107.7% in October 2005 as opposed 21.4%, 10.4% and 6.3% in October 2004 respectively. Income tax collection reduced by a 4.5%, much below than April- October last year . Excise duties fell in the beginning of second half of the year. Collections from customs improved in April October 2005 as against the same period of 2004.

Revenue receipts have increased in April October 2005 from the previous year, tax revenue collections also went up during this period. The Recovery of Loans and Non-debt capital receipts for the year 2004 and 2005 are not comparable .

The non plan and plan expenditures over the fiscal 2005 first seven-month period have gone up by 5.5% and 15.3% than the same period of previous year, making the total expenditure rise by 8%.

Detailed figures for the April October 2005 against same period 2004 show the Non-plan revenue expenditure rise by 9% . Planned expenditure has also increased on both revenue and capital account.

Prices of commodities rose at a lower rate of 4.5% in April November 2005 as against 6.8% the corresponding period of 2004-05.

Commodities where percentage changes in prices exceeded than April November period of 2004 are Food grains (4.3%), Fuel (10.2%), Mineral oil (14.9%), Chemical products (4.0%), Drugs and Medicines (3.9%), Cement (8.4%) and Machinery and equipment (6.2%).

Commodities which have become cheaper in April November of 2005 compared to same period of 2004 are : Primary non food articles(-5.3%), edible oil (-7.2%), textiles ( -5.9%). Vegetables, Minerals, Sugar Khandsari gur, and Iron and steel registered slower growth.Indias trade deficit has increased in the months April September 2005 compared to the previous year. Total exports during April September 2005 went up by 21.9% but at a slower pace than the previous year. Among the broad categories, Primary products exports grew by 23.9% in 2005. In the agriculture and allied activities and Ores and minerals exports went up by 16.8% and 40.3% respectively. In the second broad category of manufactured goods exports showed an increase of 16.3% among which Chemicals, Engineering goods, Gems and Jewelry and Petroleum products exports went up significantly.

Exports goods which have posted negative growth in 2005 against 2004-05 include : Spices (-1.9%) , Cotton yarn fabrics(-3%), Oil meal ( -5.2%), electronic goods (-5.5%) , Tobacco(-6%) , tea (-11%), man made fabrics, made-ups (-16%) and wheat (-51%).

Indias major export destinations with more than $ 1000 million worth of exports and high growth in the April- September 2005 are Singapore at 58.9% growth, China ( 51.5%), UK ( 35.8%), Hong Kong (32.5%), Japan (21%), Germany (15.4%), USA (13.1% ), UAE (11.2%), Belgium (11%), and Italy (9.8%).

Imports too grew at a slower rate than previous year at a rate of 35.7% in the April-September 2005. Petroleum and other bulk items have shown higher growth than the other broad commodities. Growth in imports of Bulk consumption goods dipped this year. In this category metal scrap, ores and iron & steel imports have seen a substantial rise.

Few import items have started to post higher growth in 2005 against the same period of 2004. These import items are : Gold and Silver , Electronic goods , Pearls and jewelry , Organic and inorganic chemicals, Iron ad steel and metal scrap.

Major partners for our imports valued more than $ 1000 million and high growth are Switzerland with 59% growth, UAE (52.7%), Germany (51.4%), China 42% , Australia (39.8%), Korea (26.6%), UK(23.8%), USA (22.4%), Belgium (21.1%), Singapore (20%) and Japan (13.6%).

Total Foreign Investment grew by 1592 $ million in Sept 2005 on account portfolio investment. The addition made by foreign direct investment to the total reserves remained same as in September 2004. The non resident deposits with the scheduled commercial banks went up by $ 174 million in April September 2005 as against a negative $ 653 million in April September 2004.

In 2005 the monthly average addition to reserves was recorded at 0.2%, which is much lower than the addition in 2003 and 2004 . In November 2005 , total reserves fell to $ 142 billion from $ 143.7 billion in October 2005 due to slight erosion of foreign currency assets in the month.US Dollar continues to strengthen in the November month of 2005 , a change of 2% was registered in November 2005 . Indian Rupee strengthens vis-a vis Euro during in November 2005 . CONTENTS

TitlePage

Executive summary2

1Growth of industry6

2Core infrastructure industries13

3Telecom15

4Stock market trends16

5Monetary indicators 17

6Fiscal management21

7Trends in inflation 29

8Merchandize trade27

9Capital inflows36

10Foreign exchange reserves37

11Trends in exchange rates38

LIST OFTABLES

TitlePage

Table-1.1Trends in Index of Industrial Production6

Table-1.2Monthly trends in Index of Industrial Production7

Table-1.3Growth of major sectors of industry-17

Table-1.4Monthly trends in major sectors of industry-17

Table-1.5Growth of major sectors of industry-2 8

Table-1.6Monthly trends in major sectors of industry-28

Table-1.7Growth trends in 16 industries-19

Table-1.8Monthly trends in 16 industries-19


Table-110Monthly trends in 16 industries-210


Table-1.12Monthly trends in 16 industries-3: 11


Table-1.14Monthly trends in 16 industries-4 12

Table-2.1Growth in six core infrastructure industries-113

Table-2.2Growth in six core infrastructure industries-213

Table-3.1Growth of telecommunication network15

Table-3.2Monthly addition to the mobile phone network15

Table-4.1Month trends in major stock market indices16

Table-5.1Monetary indicators17-20

Table-6.1Trends in tax collections of central government21

Table-6.2Trends in central government finances 22

Table-6.3Growth in monthly expenditure of central government23

Table-7.1Monthly trends in Wholesale Price Index: 1-.924

Table-7.10Monthly trends in consumer prices28

Table-8.1Monthly trends in growth of merchandize trade29

Table-8.2Export growth of important commodities30

Table-8.3Growth of imports of important commodities31

Table-8.4Growth in major export markets33

Table-8.5Growth of imports from major markets34

Table-9.1Monthly trends in foreign investments36

Table-9.2Growth of non resident deposits with commercial banks36

Table-10.1Monthly trends in foreign exchange reserves37

Table-11.1Monthly trends in exchange rate of rupee 38

Table-11.2Monthly trends in real effective exchange rates38

1GROWTH OF INDUSTRY: RECENT TRENDS

Industrial production grew at 8.4% in April October period of 2005, slower than the corresponding period of previous year. While manufacturing industry still remained the main driver of industrial growth in September and October 2005 .

Consumers durable production registered a 13.2% increase in the April- October period of 2005, however comparing 2005-06 with 2004-05 we see a decline in growth since July 2005-06.

Capital goods buoyed up recording 16.6% growth in April October 2005. Since September 2005 capital goods grew more than 20% .

Intermediate goods on the other hand exhibited a sharp decline in growth for the April October period of 2005 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

Industries with accelerated growth in April- October of 2005-06 are : Textiles (22%), Beverages (17%), Basic metals( 15%), Transport Equipment (12.6%), Cotton textiles (11.2%), Non metallic mineral products (8.2%).

Some industries registered a slower growth than the industry average. These are Machinery and Equipment (12%), Leather (2%) , Paper (6.4%), Food Products (-4.9%), Non metallic mineral products (8.2%) , Rubber , plastic , petrol , coal ( 2.8%) , Jute (2.4%), Wood (-3.4%), man made textiles (-1.8%), Metal products ( -3.1%),

Percentage increase in the first month of the third quarter, compared to the corresponding month of previous year, is found in: Beverages and tobacco (21.6%), Basic metals (16.0%), Transport equipments (15.9%), Paper (6.4%), Non- metallic mineral products (7.2%), however growth is declining in the rest 11 industries.

Table-1.1: Trends in Index of Industrial Production:(% change)

Mining (10.5%)Manufacturing (79.4%)Electricity (10.2%)Industry (100%)

2005-06 ( Apr Oct)0.79.65.28.4

2004-05( Apr Oct)5.39.17.18.7

2003-045.27.45.17.0

2002-035.86.03.25.7

2001-021.22.93.12.7

2000-012.85.34.05.0

Note: Figures in brackets pertain to weights

Source: Central Statistical Organization

Table-1.2: Monthly trends in Index of Industrial Production (% change)

Mining (10.5%)Manufacturing (79.4%)Electricity (10.2%)Industry (100%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April9.12.88.89.210.33.18.98.1

May5.35.27.511.33.110.56.810.8

June2.74.88.113.24.59.67.312.2

July4.2-1.68.47.713.7-0.98.56.2

August4.4-2.39.19.37.47.98.68.2

September 5.1-2.010.58.57.7-0.79.86.9

October6.2-1.811.99.63.57.410.68.5

November3.68.63.47.7

December4.89.84.58.9

January2.68.62.47.5

February-1.67.4-0.85.9

March6.610.93.29.8



Table-1.3: Growth of major sectors of industry-1: (% change)

Basic goods (35.6%)Intermediate goods (26.5%)Capital goods (9.3%)

2005-06 ( Apr Oct)6.33.016.6

2004-055.56.113.9

2003-045.46.413.6

2002-034.93.910.5

2001-022.61.5-3.4

2000-013.74.71.8



Table-1.4: Monthly trends in major sectors of industry-1 (% change)

Basic goods (35.6%)Intermediate goods (26.5%)Capital goods (9.3%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April8.06.212.42.510.114.6

May3.08.713.04.213.013.4

June2.98.67.44.216.913.5

July5.73.56.43.411.611.5

August5.28.24.93.413.512.5

September 8.32.43.82.116.821.9

October7.46.37.91.613.224.1

November6.63.77.8

December6.63.819.7

January4.71.68.0

February0.83.310.0

March7.26.323.0



Table-1.5: Growth of major sectors of industry-2: (% change)

Consumer durables (5.4%)Consumer non- durables (23.3%)All consumer goods (28.7%)

2005-06 ( Apr Oct)13.113.313.2

2004-0514.410.811.7

2003-0411.65.87.1

2002-03-6.312.07.1

2001-0211.54.16.0

2000-0114.55.88.0



Table-1.6: Monthly trends in major sectors of industry-2 (% change)

Consumer durables (5.4%)Consumer non- durables (23.3%)All consumer goods (28.7%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April11.918.75.011.96.513.5

May8.317.72.518.63.918.4

June16.812.86.527.59.123.7

July20.13.810.24.712.74.5

August20.112.712.411.114.411.5

September 20.613.212.99.714.910.3

October18.913.614.711.115.911.8

November9.213.812.6

December12.412.312.3

January10.316.715.2

February13.811.211.9

March10.810.410.5



Table-1.7: Growth trends in 16 industries1: (% change)

Textile products (2.5%)Beverage & tobacco (2.4%)Basic metals (7.5%)Basic chemicals (14%)

2005-06 ( Apr Oct)22.017.315.812.7

2004-0519.210.85.414.5

2003-04-3.28.59.28.7

2002-0314.427.99.23.7

2001-022.412.24.34.8

2000-014.04.31.87.3



Table-1.8: Monthly trends in 16 industries1 (% change)

Textile products (2.5%)Beverage & tobacco (2.4%)Basic metals (7.5%)Basic chemicals (14%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April27.421.29.57.6-4.918.024.111.8

May-8.329.715.913.2-2.314.326.014.8

June-1.330.66.929.7-3.215.320.019.9

July-1.012.77.026.9-3.515.515.69.3

August12.026.78.710.94.121.114.18.6

September 14.119.26.915.712.610.614.914.1

October25.916.03.921.69.916.012.410.2

November35.915.211.513.4

December38.07.211.08.1

January25.813.98.717.3

February30.518.46.96.7

March40.316.013.36.6




Machinery and equipment (9.6%)Transport equipment (3.9%)Cotton textiles (5.5%)Leather (1.1%)

2005-06 ( Apr Oct)10.312.611.24.3

2004-0519.84.17.66.7

2003-0415.817.0-3.1-3.9

2002-031.614.6-2.7-3.2

2001-021.36.8-2.25.3

2000-017.3-2.02.910.7




Machinery and equipment (9.6%)Transport equipment (3.9%)Cotton textiles (5.5%)Leather (1.1%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

Apr25.611.84.212.512.38.09.913.5

May23.110.8-5.414.76.510.310.09.5

June31.112.0-1.711.97.811.88.0-0.1

July27.87.11.56.06.010.18.74.0

Aug25.36.95.111.48.214.0-3.5-1.1

Sep18.311.06.416.36.913.11.25.4

Oct 21.312.014.015.913.510.94.02.0

Nov11.51.96.1-0.8

Dec20.54.17.12.2

Jan11.05.24.010.4

Feb10.83.92.915.7

Mar17.98.710.120.4




Paper

(2.6%)Food products (9.1%)Non metallic mineral products

(2.8%)Rubber, plastic, petrol, coal (5.7%)

2005-06 ( Apr Oct)6.4-4.98.22.8

2004-0510.5-0.41.52.4

2003-0415.6-0.53.74.5

2002-036.811.05.15.5

2001-023.0-1.61.111.1

2000-01-9.110.1-1.211.8




Paper

(2.6%)Food products (9.1%)Non metallic mineral products

(2.8%)Rubber, plastic, petrol, coal (5.7%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April2.517.9-22.46.62.92.56.92.1

May7.07.3-16.48.2-5.212.98.42.9

June2.96.62.03.1-1.57.60.26.4

July8.41.84.4-25.5-0.97.11.57.7

August3.25.70.54.5-1.212.32.10.6

September -0.42.46.7-22.62.77.32.20.3

October-3.36.415.0-7.75.37.27.6-0.2

November1.31.911.9-3.5

December38.57.70.0-6.3

January18.52.71.6-1.8

February20.61.20.43.2

March27.1-2.13.910.4




Jute & other fibre textiles (0.6%)Wood (2.7%)Man made textiles, wool and silk (2.3%)Metal products & parts (2.8%)

2005-06 ( Apr Oct)2.4-3.4-1.8-3.1

2004-053.7-8.43.55.7

2003-04-4.26.86.83.7

2002-038.3-17.63.06.4

2001-02-5.9-11.04.4-10.0

2000-010.82.95.815.0




Jute & other fibre textiles (0.6%)Wood (2.7%)Man made textiles, wool, silk (2.3%)Metal products & parts (2.8%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April6.7-4.0-9.4-6.085.2-10.9-5.61.3

May-11.4-3.1-7.03.48.0-5.97.911.4

June-25.04.0-15.54.5-12.516.67.3-1.3

July-16.40.7-11.8-10.52.1-2.716.6-19.1

August7.16.5-10.62.1-1.0-4.414.7-4.2

September 10.90.4-10.1-11.5-6.23.49.4-7.9

October7.73.3-10.5-5.26.5-5.70.60.7

November0.31.3-4.16.8

December8.9-1.5-1.93.6

January59.7-13.41.3-3.9

February4.60.8-8.714.8

March7.0-13.111.7-1.2



2CORE INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRIES

Performance of the six core infrastructure industries is lower than in the April -October period of previous year. Cement and Finished Steel whereas showed a higher growth in the April- October 2005 compared to the corresponding period of previous year, growing at 7.4% and 11.0% respectively.

Looking at the monthly figures it is found that, in October 2005 finished steel and power have exhibited an increase however Cement have shown decelerating growth. Petroleum refinery has posted a negative growth of 2.5% in October 2005 after a positive growth in the second quarter of 2005.

Petroleum refinery, which went though a negative phase in the first quarter but experienced a positive growth in the second quarter, however it again posted a negative growth of 2.5% in October 2005.

Table-2.1: Growth in six-core infrastructure industries1 (% change)

All infrastructure industriesFinished steelCementCrude petroleum

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April10.53.69.27.516.56.99.4-0.4

May5.16.713.55.1-1.43.18.2-1.9

June2.410.2-1.821.9-3.913.31.10.4

July11.10.517.23.78.42.30.2-4.0

August6.35.79.37.81.117.85.1-16.1

September 0.21.8-14.15.910.04.92.5-7.3

October5.34.94.56.913.68.6-0.2-7.1

November5.68.811.40.9

December4.63.18.3-0.6

January2.52.29.60.2

February-0.33.11.3-4.9

March3.74.46.31.1

April-October5.34.41.37.44.811.04.3-5.2

Source: Ministry of Industry

Table-2.2: Growth in six-core infrastructure industries-2 (% change)

Petroleum refineryCoalPower

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April13.3-7.97.28.210.52.9

May13.8-6.12.911.23.210.5

June9.6-1.16.63.24.69.3

July3.83.67.5-1.713.6-1.3

August4.42.31.010.97.57.7

September -0.25.09.34.67.6-0.6

October6.2-2.511.95.83.87.4

November1.06.94.0

December9.27.84.4

January-0.22.92.4

February-3.5-0.3-0.9

March-2.28.23.2

April-October7.3-1.06.35.87.85.1

Source: Ministry of Industry

3TELECOMMUNICATIONS

The number of phones added in November 2005 is 21.83 million, raising the total subscription level to almost 120 million at its historic highs. In November this year, cellular mobile accounted for 19.26 million and fixed line 2.57 million of the total subscription. Additions to the mobile phone network recorded an all time high of 3.51 million in November 2005.

Table-3.1: Growth of the telecommunication network (in million)

Fixed line (including WLL fixed)Cellular mobile phones (including WLL mobile)Total phones

1996-97 14.5 0.314.9

1997-9817.8 (3.3)0.9 (0.5)18.7 (3.8)

1998-9921.6 (3.8)1.2 (0.3)22.8 (4.2)

1999-0026.8 (5.2)1.9 (0.7)28.7 (5.8)

2000-0133.0 (6.2)3.6 (1.7)36.6 (7.9)

2001-0239.1 (6.2)6.4 (2.9)45.6 (9.0)

2002-0341.5 (2.4)13.0 (6.6)54.5 (8.9)

2003-0442.6 (1.1)33.6(20.6)76.2(21.7)

2004-0545.9 (3.3)52.2(18.6)98.1(21.9)

2005-06#48.47(2.57)71.46 (19.26)119.93 (21.83)

Note: # =April-November

Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India

Table-3.2: Monthly addition to the mobile phone network (in million)

2002200320042005

January0.731.641.77


March0.951.910.73

April0.280.641.371.44

May0.292.261.331.70

June0.351.421.431.98

July0.362.311.742.44

August0.491.791.672.74

September 0.371.611.842.48

October0.531.671.512.90

November0.721.901.563.51


Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India

4STOCK MARKET TRENDS

Market sentiments are making the Sensex and Nifty levels attain the all time high. Sentiments firmed up in the opening day of December and Sensex recorded an increase of 12.5% in 23 months reaching 8944 level, and Nifty spiking from 2387 points on 1st of November 2005 to 2699 points in 1st December 2005.

Table-4.1: Monthly trends in stock market indices (beginning of month figures)

DateBSE Sensex% ChangeS&P CNX NIFTY% Change

1.4.033081984

2.5.032967-3.7938-4.7

2.6.0332068.110158.2

1.7.03360412.4113111.4

1.8.0338155.911965.8

1.9.03432513.4137615.1

1.10.0344553.014213.3

3.11.03506313.6160212.7

1.12.0351611.916583.5

1.1.04591514.6191215.4

3.2.045621-5.01769-7.5

1.3.0458233.618534.7

1.4.045741-1.41829-1.3

1.5.0458231.418521.3

1.6.044835-17.01508-18.6

1.7.0448740.815371.9

2.8.0452036.716406.7

1.9.0452110.21635-0.3

1.10.0456768.917758.5

1.11.0457040.517981.3

1.12.0462289.7195910.3

1.1.0566797.221157.8

1.2.056552-1.92058-2.7

1.3.0566511.520841.3

1.4.056605-0.72068-0.8

1.5.056195-6.21917-7.3

1.6.0567308.620888.9

1.7.0572107.122115.9

1.8.0576696.423184.8

1.9.0578762.724063.8

1.10.0584927.825746.9

1.11.057944-6.52387-7.3

1.12.05894412.526994.85

Increase over May 20035977201.41760.9187.7

Source: Reserve Bank of India

5MONETARY INDICATORS

The borrowing by the government has marginally increased from the previous year with a variation of 1.9% in 2005 from 1.6% in 2004. There has been a rise in the variation in foreign exchange assets of banks until November 2005.

Aggregate deposits also went up sharply in since September 2005. Investments continue to remain lower than in the previous year mainly on account of lower government borrowings. The increase in total credit in April-November 2005 was on account of non-food credit growth.

Table-5.1: Monetary sector indicators

Variation in M3 (Rs crore)Variation in M3 (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

April53331743662.73.3

May51948772582.63.4

June698311058503.54.7

July776921222843.95.4

August968671635874.87.3

September 1087912153945.49.6

October1282462327586.410.3

November1291702469276.411.0

December1484357.4

January1937739.7

February23492011.7

March26222613.1

Variation in net bank credit to government (Rs crore)Variation in net bank credit to government (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

April1010599501.41.3

May895137771.20.5

June1298669801.70.9

July18217117412.51.5

August21567450482.92.6

September 4098-33590.6-0.4

October18215120532.51.6

November11678144921.61.9

December-11819-1.6

January78881.1

February50060.7

March-4628-0.6

Variation in bank credit to commercial sector (Rs croreVariation in bank credit to commercial sector (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

April22659319742.22.5

May19512519401.94.1

June38057642213.75.0

July42580827224.26.5

August685111176216.79.2

September 961091599589.512.5

October14966118761714.714.7

November16408021154616.116.5

December19350419.0

January20792220.4

February23632223.2

March25897525.4

Variation in net foreign exchange assets of banks (Rs crore)Variation in net foreign exchange assets of banks (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

April355963016.8-

May53093-1047410.1-1.6

June49206-145959.3-2.2

July53808-2278310.2-3.5

August45849205258.73.2

September 530391144510.11.8

October561562971910.74.6

November767523295714.613.1

December7933315.1

January7153713.6

February10620120.2

March12572723.9

Variation in non-monetary liabilities of banks (Rs crore)Variation in non-monetary liabilities of banks (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

April15047-321415.2-7.5

May29636-3201610.2-7.5

June30454-4919610.6-11.2

July36957-5053712.9-11.5

August39104-2089013.6-4.7

September 44500-4727615.5-10.7

October95851-329533.4-0.7

November1234191214143.02.8

December11266138.3

January9365231.8

February11268838.3

March11792840.1

Variation of aggregate deposits of SCB (Rs crore) Variation in aggregate deposits of SCB (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

April44751616333.03.6

May44971584113.03.4

June58004896653.95.3

July799151290345.37.6

August854631410535.78.3

September 1028852090156.812.3

October1133102110117.512.4

November1073562159647.012.7

December16104110.7

January16586011.0

February19502713.0

March16632510.8

Variation in investments of SCB (Rs crore)Variation in investments of SCB (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

April35600-40625.3-0.5

May4473670816.61.0

June398719255.90.1

July4723799377.01.3

August48090237037.13.2

September 28526142834.21.9

October28001149014.12.0

November2468240153.60.5

December229543.4

January355895.3

February615489.1

March462486.8

Variation in total credit of SCB (Rs crore)Variation in total credit of SCB (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

April24118353432.93.2

May23211519602.84.8

June38085609584.55.5

July48959840315.87.6

August674371010708.09.2

September 9821015571211.714.2

October14997218397217.816.7

November16631320543219.718.7

December20084623.9

January20599724.5

February22888827.2

March22641426.2

Variation in food credit of SCB (Rs crore)Variation in food credit of SCB (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

April7036644

May75514606

June71003683

July6331-1565

August3904-1008

September 2677-1771

October3751-1316

November64191334

December8298

January5978

February5479

March5039

Variation in non-food credit of SCB (Rs crore)Variation in non-food credit of SCB (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

April17081346992.13.3

May15661473541.94.5

June30985572753.85.4

July42628855964.57.6

August63534102077

September 3298395533

October146222185287

November159105204098

December192548

January200019

February223409

March221375


6FISCAL TRENDS

Gross tax collections have increased at a lower rate in April-November 2005 as against the collection in the same period of 2004. Higher Tax collections were recorded by Corporation tax 49.8%, Customs 21% and other taxes 107.7% in October 2005 as opposed 21.4%, 10.4% and 6.3% in October 2004 respectively. Income tax collection reduced by a 4.5%, much below than April- October last year . Excise duties fell in the beginning of second half of the year. Collections from customs improved in April October 2005 as against the same period of 2004.

Revenue receipts have increased in April October 2005 from the previous year, tax revenue collections also went up during this period. The Recovery of Loans and Non-debt capital receipts for the year 2004 and 2005 are not comparable .

The non plan and plan expenditures over the fiscal 2005 first seven-month period have gone up by 5.5% and 15.3% than the same period of previous year, making the total expenditure rise by 8%.

Detailed figures for the April October 2005 against same period 2004 show both the Non-plan revenue expenditure and the non-plan capital expenditure rise by 9% and 29%. Planned expenditure has also increased on both revenue and capital account. The Non Capital Plan capital expenditure f0r 2004 and 2005 are not comparable.

Table-6.1: Trends in cumulative tax collections of central government (%)

Gross tax revenueCorporation taxIncome tax

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April16.746.422.7-30.031.7-20.8

May20.329.63.9-71.046.5-15.3

June21.625.925.3182.274.4-21.7

July19.822.425.5117.363.0-15.4

August19.123.225.9120.155.9-9.9

September 19.621.96.666.873.4-16.8

October21.220.821.449.854.8-4.5

November19.953.012.9


January18.038.010.6


March19.931.416.6

CustomsExcise dutiesOther taxes

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April-1.833.855.385.677.1-2.6

May-5.138.016.42.566.225.6

June-3.938.612.84.056.743.7

July0.831.611.86.550.478.4

August3.929.112.06.344.587.6

September 8.724.18.710.442.297.0

October10.421.012.26.339.3107.7

November12.110.639.8

December13.59.441.6

January14.48.342.5

February16.57.547.2

March18.69.262.9

Assignment to states

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April17.220.4

May33.79.4

June15.720.5

July20.318.4

August24.916.3

September 21.018.4

October32.313.4

November24.1

December17.5

January19.2

February21.3

March19.5

Source: Controller General of Accounts

Table-6.2 Trends in central government finances: April-October

Actual to budget estimates (%)Growth (%) YoY for the same period

2004-052005-062004-052005-06

Revenue receipts42.944.110.516.7

Tax revenue40.042.517.624.3

Non tax revenue52.049.7-3.4-1.6

Non debt capital receipts124.444.8-18.7-86.1

Recovery of loans141.944.8-17.1-86.0

Other receipts5.6-81.8-95.0

Total receipts50.444.12.2-6.5

Non plan expenditure52.049.2-10.75.5

On revenue account53.551.8 3.89.0

On capital account41.027.5-62.5-29.9

Plan expenditure41.748.80.815.3

On revenue account43.246.6-0.336.2

On capital account39.358.42.8-23.9

Total expenditure48.949.1-7.98.0

Revenue account

Capital account

Fiscal deficit45.260.9-27.748.2

Revenue deficit83.973.7-9.610.0

Primary deficit-12.4167.6-103.8-3038.2


Table-6.3: Growth in monthly expenditure of central government (%)

Non PlanNon Plan RevenueNon Plan Capital

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April45.4-1.033.713.6170.9-77.6

May26.30.022.66.481.5-64.1

June15.94.015.39.022.7-49.5

July3.95.81.210.945.0-47.2

August6.56.64.19.743.3-28.5

September -16.46.51.77.7-74.0-7.8

October-10.75.53.89.0-62.5-29.9

PlanPlan RevenuePlan Capital

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April85.43.6116.852.051.1-72.4

May57.3-4.781.318.223.4-52.0

June19.85.331.617.5-0.5-22.7

July4.624.411.255.1-6.4-35.8

August4.425.211.655.9-7.1-34.2

September 13.611.516.332.88.9-28.3

October0.815.3-0.336.22.8-23.9

Total expenditureTotal RevenueTotal Capital

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April52.0-0.142.119.5108.0-75.6

May32.2-1.030.18.546.3-57.9

June16.94.318.410.88.7-34.7

July4.110.42.919.311.1-40.9

August6.011.218.5-31.8

September -9.97.912.9-20.9

October-7.98.0


7INFLATION TRENDS

Prices of commodities rose at a lower rate of 4.5% in April November 2005 as against 6.8% the corresponding period of 2004-05.

Commodities where percentage changes in prices exceeded than April November period of 2004 are Food grains (4.3%), Fuel (10.2%), Mineral oil (14.9%), Chemical products (4.0%), Drugs and Medicines (3.9%), Cement (8.4%) and Machinery and equipment (6.2%).

Commodities which have become cheaper in April November of 2005 compared to same period of 2004 are : Primary non food articles(-5.3%), edible oil (-7.2%), textiles ( -5.9%). Vegetables, Minerals, Sugar Khandsari gur, and Iron and steel registered slower growth.Table-7.1: Trends in wholesale prices-1 (% change)

All commodities (100) Primary food articles (15.4)

Growth ContributionGrowth Contribution

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April4.55.91001001.23.74.19.6

May5.05.51001002.72.68.27.1

June6.74.21001000.92.82.010.3

July7.64.11001002.74.15.515.6

August8.53.11001005.02.79.013.1

September 7.93.91001003.54.16.816.5

October7.34.71001002.64.25.613.7

November7.54.41001003.55.07.217.5


January5.51001.95.3


March5.31004.111.9

April-November6.84.54.73.66.012.4

Table-7.2: Trends in wholesale prices 2 (% change)

Food grains (5.0)Vegetables (1.5)


2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April-1.93.7-2.23.110.59.43.42.3

May-1.73.5-1.73.223.35.26.81.4

June-1.84.2-1.45.012.7-0.12.80.0

July-1.25.3-0.86.51.218.70.26.7

August1.34.10.86.523.10.04.00.0

September 1.64.11.05.311.610.62.14.0

October1.34.30.94.65.33.31.11.0

November1.65.11.15.814.46.82.82.3

December2.92.2-0.7-0.2

January1.61.5-6.6-1.8

February1.41.43.81.1

March2.72.617.14.7

April-November-1.14.3-0.84.813.97.43.12.4

Table-7.3: Trends in wholesale prices-3 (% change)

Primary non food articles (6.1)Minerals (0.5)


2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April3.3-5.74.5-5.924.967.92.75.6

May3.2-6.53.9-7.349.945.24.94.0

June3.3-5.93.0-8.5144.4-11.410.4-1.3

July4.5-6.63.6-10.0130.8-2.78.3-0.3

August7.3-6.85.3-13.3138.0-2.87.9-0.4

September 7.5-7.15.8-11.3145.510.29.01.3

October2.5-2.42.1-3.1134.228.48.92.9

November0.4-1.80.4-2.6136.228.58.93.2

December-3.0-2.8134.49.7

January-5.2-5.9137.312.2

February-6.8-8.4105.310.3

March-6.7-7.873.36.8

April-November4.4-5.34.2-7.397.216.27.31.8


Fuel (14.2)Mineral oil (7)


2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April3.611.311.227.03.117.54.820.6

May6.710.919.228.09.116.812.721.2

June9.710.420.534.913.913.014.521.5

July10.210.719.137.214.515.613.326.7

August12.18.720.239.418.011.914.826.5

September 10.711.019.340.316.715.814.828.6

October11.011.321.634.217.517.216.825.6

November11.39.921.532.518.115.417.024.7

December12.426.220.020.9

January10.026.114.919.1

February10.229.415.121.3

March9.726.314.619.5

April-November8.410.218.632.511.614.912.623.2


Manufactured goods (62.7)Food products (11.5)


2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April5.95.581.458.06.70.517.11.0

May5.05.462.961.54.9-0.211.2-0.4

June7.03.765.354.74.40.77.51.9

July7.72.963.244.44.81.07.32.7

August7.62.356.046.75.90.98.03.3

September 7.42.358.636.67.3-0.710.7-2.0

October7.02.860.738.15.00.88.02.0

November6.33.453.248.56.51.510.13.9

December6.056.65.79.9

January5.360.75.712.0

February4.354.92.55.8

March4.857.82.04.5

April- November6.63.564495.30.69.51.7


Sugar, khandsari, gur (3.9)Edible oil (2.8)


2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April14.217.912.311.93.7-7.32.3-3.4

May18.912.514.98.91.9-7.81.1-3.9

June19.410.811.310.00.0-6.30.0-4.1

July15.612.98.112.50.0-5.90.0-4.0

August13.411.66.214.52.8-7.20.9-6.3

September 15.88.47.98.63.5-8.31.2-5.9

October14.49.37.87.81.4-7.50.6-4.4

November14.310.17.69.1-0.1-7.60.0-4.8

December16.99.9-2.4-1.0

January27.119.4-4.9-2.5

February18.114.4-7.9-4.4

March18.413.8-7.5-4.0

April-November16.110.29.810.21.7-7.20.7-4.5


Textiles (9.8)Chemical products (11.9)


2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April7.3-4.515.9-7.5-0.24.7-0.49.5

May7.2-4.014.2-7.20.34.90.810.7

June8.6-5.012.5-11.61.74.22.911.7

July9.4-6.712.1-16.01.94.02.911.7

August7.8-7.09.0-21.72.53.33.512.4

September 7.4-7.99.2-20.12.93.24.49.9

October6.8-6.99.1-14.53.33.55.58.9

November2.0-6.22.7-14.02.84.34.511.7

December-0.1-0.12.54.5

January-2.9-5.23.16.7

February-6.0-11.83.48.2

March-6.0-11.23.78.3

April-November8.0-5.912.2-13.01.24.02.210.6


Drugs & medicines (2.5)Cement (6.2)


2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April-0.14.00.01.73.57.31.42.1

May-0.34.0-0.11.84.06.51.42.0

June-0.34.0-0.12.44.06.81.02.8

July0.63.10.21.93.77.10.83.0

August1.72.00.51.64.57.70.94.2

September 1.73.70.62.45.59.01.24.0

October1.74.30.62.35.110.81.24.0

November2.75.70.93.33.010.80.74.3


January5.22.4-0.2-0.1


March4.01.98.32.7

April-November0.33.90.12.24.08.41.13.2


Iron and steel (3.6)Machinery & equipment (8.4)


2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April34.427.827.617.02.48.04.511.3

May23.627.917.218.41.98.43.312.8

June43.89.823.88.42.47.83.015.3

July44.95.921.55.34.36.04.712.4

August35.56.015.27.05.94.65.812.2

September 27.39.312.68.85.85.06.210.9

October26.38.913.16.96.75.17.79.2

November25.68.612.57.26.75.27.510.0

December26.014.17.29.0

January20.013.37.211.0

February19.314.27.412.5

March21.314.77.311.6

April-November35.812.520.210.13.46.24.411.6

Table-7.10: Monthly trends in consumer prices (% change)

CPI-IWCPI-UNMECPI-ALCPI-RL

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April2.25.02.94.21.53.01.83.0

May2.83.72.94.21.83.01.83.0

June3.03.33.43.91.82.71.82.7

July3.24.13.14.82.13.61.83.8

August4.63.44.04.33.03.23.03.2

September 4.83.64.04.83.33.23.33.2

October4.64.24.04.53.63.23.63.2

November4.24.03.33.3


January4.43.82.72.7


March4.24.02.42.4

April- October3.63.93.54.42.53.12.53.1

Source: Ministry of Labor, Center for Monitoring Indian Economy

8MERCHANDIZE TRADE

Indias trade deficit has increased in the months April September 2005 compared to the previous year. Total exports during April September 2005 went up by 21.9% but at a slower pace than the previous year. Among the broad categories, Primary products exports grew by 23.9% in 2005. In the agriculture and allied activities and Ores and minerals exports went up by 16.8% and 40.3% respectively. In the second broad category of manufactured goods exports showed an increase of 16.3% especially Chemicals, Engineering goods, Gems and Jewelry and Petroleum products exports went up significantly.

Exports goods which have posted negative growth in 2005 against 2004-05 include : Spices (-1.9%) , Cotton yarn fabrics(-3%), Oil meal ( -5.2%), electronic goods (-5.5%) , Tobacco(-6%) , tea (-11%), man made fabrics, made-ups (-16%) and wheat (-51%).

Indias major export destinations with more than $ 1000 million worth of exports and high growth in the April- September 2005 are Singapore at 58.9% growth, China ( 51.5%), UK ( 35.8%), Hong Kong (32.5%), Japan (21%), Germany (15.4%), USA (13.1% ), UAE (11.2%), Belgium (11%), and Italy (9.8%).

Imports too grew at a slower rate than previous year at a rate of 35.7% in the April-September 2005. Petroleum and other bulk items have shown higher growth than the other broad commodities. Growth in imports of Bulk consumption goods dipped this year. In this category metal scrap, ores and iron & steel imports have seen a substantial rise.

Few import items have started to post higher growth in 2005 against the same period of 2004. These import items are : Gold and Silver , Electronic goods , Pearls and jewelry , Organic and inorganic chemicals, Iron ad steel and metal scrap.

Major partners for our imports valued more than $ 1000 million and high growth are Switzerland with 59% growth, UAE (52.7%), Germany (51.4%), China 42% , Australia (39.8%), Korea (26.6%), UK(23.8%), USA (22.4%), Belgium (21.1%), Singapore (20%) and Japan (13.6%).

Table-8.1: Monthly trends in growth of merchandize trade (% change)

ExportsOil importsNon-oil importsTotal imports

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April19.917.251.441.4105620.851.5

May29.422.343.229.825.550.128.235.5

June34.318.939.728.841.417.84330

July18.826.8113.129.715.431.831.633.2

August28.124.925.353.915.633.325.632.4

September 17.47.571.471.145.4-6.541.217.2

October9.527.546.753.211.22419.735.9

November25.9-11.3854.749.443.18.68

December14.6-18.146.628.7

January33.2-3.860.940.4

February886.639.238.6

March8.313.335.425.5

April-November22.516.0755.843.4623.523.393029.32

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Table-8.2: Growth of major export products

Exports April-September

2004-05

($ Million)Exports in April-September

2005-06

($ Million)Growth in April-September

2004-05 (%)Growth in April-September

2005-06 (%)

Agriculture & allied products3,628.504,238.2018.316.8

1. Tea201.4179.329.5-11

2.Coffee114.3155.9-1.536.5

3. Rice500.1816.59.163.3

4. Wheat226.5109.2-0.6-51.8

5. Cotton47.4119.3509.1151.7

6. Tobacco132.8124.816.9-6

7. Cashew240.727751.315.1

8. Spices209.4205.447.8-1.9

9. Oil meal306.1290.2289.8-5.2

10. Marine products557654.3-10.917.5

11. Sugar & molasses15.815.9-91.70.8

Ores & minerals1,565.102,195.408340.3

1.Iron ore870.81,314.10189.750.9

2.processed minerals358.9463.229.529

Manufactured goods26,863.1031,243.6027.416.3

A Leather & mfrs.1,160.101,201.9018.53.6

B Chemicals & related5,212.706,086.402816.8

1.Basic chemicals Pharmaceuticals3,003.403,643.3016.421.3

2.plastics & linoleum1,242.601,271.0087.12.3

3.Rubber, glass757.5876.812.715.8

4.Residual chemicals & allied209.3295.333.941.1

C. Engineering goods7,337.008,966.6040.622.2

1.Manufacture of metals1,482.301,784.0042.520.4

2. Machinery & instruments1,545.801,940.9023.125.6

3. Transport equipments1,332.402,027.0077.552.1

4. Iron & steel1,479.601,538.4039.44

5. Electronic goods866.2818.816.1-5.5

D. Textiles6,392.406,639.6016.63.9

1. Cotton, yarn, fabrics1,635.901,587.2015.9-3

2. natural Silk 193.8200.220.83.3

3. Manmade Yarn, fabrics, made ups972.181724.9-16

4. manmade staple21.433.4-19.956.1

5. Woolen yarn33.139.329.918.9

6. Ready made Garments3,091.503,423.901510.8

7 Jute125.61428.213.1

8. Coir 47.558.639.223.4

9. Carpets 271.633812.624.4

E. Gems & jewelry6,182.007,661.4028.823.9

F handicrafts200.4207.3-16.93.4

G Petroleum products2,926.704,623.907658

Others1,011.701,582.7037.456.4

Total exports35,995.1043,883.9031.321.9

Table-8.3: Growth of imports of important commodities ($ million)

Imports in April-September

2004-05

($ Million)Imports in April- September

2005-06



2005-06 (%)

1. Bulk imports20,126.7028,684.0048.342.5

A. Petroleum & products14,584.1020,952.1058.343.7

B. Bulk consumption goods1,489.101,402.60-13.4-5.8

1. Cereals & preparations12.613.143.84.1

2. Edible oil 1,228.101,041.80-15.7-15.2

3. Pulses192.3208.2-24.48.3

4.Sugar139.6

C. Other bulk items4,053.506,329.3053.556.1

1. Fertilizers536816.253.352.3

(a) Crude138.311997.9-13.9

(b) Sulphur & Un-roasted64.739.8106.1-38.5

(c) Manufactured333657.434.197.4

2. Non ferrous metals572.2741.248.329.5

3. Paper board & mfrs.319.1408.3827.9

4. Crude rubber including synthetics188.9200.542.86.2

5. Pulp & waste paper231.5251.817.48.8

6. Metal scrap and ores1,090.101,669.8081.153.2

7. Iron & steel1,115.802,241.5064.5100.9

11. Non Bulk imports27,998.7036,632.6032.130.8

A. Capital goods9,625.4012,365.6031.728.5

1. Manufacture of metals399.9506.43126.6

2. Machine tools238420.624.876.7

3. Machinery2,721.803,926.6030.144.3

4. Electrical machinery532.3588.439.610.5

5. Electronic goods4,810.005,499.4035.814.3

6. Transport equipment720.71,073.1014.848.9

7. Project goods202.6351.221.773.3

Mainly export related items 7,181.209,477.702832

1. Pearls, precious &3,904.005,356.5028.537.2

2. Organic & inorganic chemicals2,383.602,955.5030.824

3. Textile yarn fabric666.5896.21334.5

4. Cashew nuts227.1269.542.818.7

C Others11,192.1014,789.403532.1

1. Gold & silver4,385.406,456.8036.347.2

2. Artificial resins, etc639.9962.928.550.5

3. Professional Instruments, etc.6628221724.2

4. Coal coke and briquettes1,413.501,310.0099-7.3

5. Medicinal & Pharmaceutical products338.3413.81722.3

6. Chemical materials & products396.342937.88.3

7. Nonmetallic mineral manufactures200.126734.633.4

Total imports48,125.4065,316.6038.435.7

Non oil imports27, 058.4037, 558.8029.338.8

Non oil imports excluding gold & silver23, 262.5031, 790.8028.836.7

Mainly industrial inputs21, 349.0029, 564.7032.538.5

Table-8.4: Growth of major export markets

Exports in April-September

2004-05

($ Million)Exports in April-September

2005-06



2005-06 (%)

OECD countries16,400.9019,391.6022.818.2

EU7,621.309,384.4024.223.1

Belgium1,145.801,272.0036.211

France767.4974.641.527

Germany1,257.301,451.1011.715.4

Italy934.51,026.0023.59.8

Netherlands654.997112.548.3

U.K.1,592.802,162.6021.335.8

North America6,933.907,823.202212.8

Canada400.6434.911.88.6

U.S.A.6,533.307,388.3022.713.1

Asia and Oceania1,223.301,484.7011.721.4

Australia326.8371.922.413.8

Japan853.51,032.508.921

Other OECD countries622.4699.342.712.4

Switzerland238.3220.927.7-7.3

OPEC5,594.306,196.404410.8

Indonesia558.5510.59.3-8.6

Iran548.3480.925-12.3

Iraq64.941.9612.4-35.5

Kuwait197.7229.362.616

Saudi Arabia659.2842.136.827.7

U.A.E.3,098.603,446.2061.411.2

Eastern Europe817.8842.720.13

Romania33.438.9121.316.4

Russia285.3317.1-16.511.2

Developing countries12,953.5017,327.4037.733.8

Asia10,188.0013,361.003731.1

SAARC1,988.302,344.808.817.9

Bangladesh688.1701.1-11.91.9

Bhutan44.845.2-0.7

Maldives20.931-3.148.4

Nepal388.1367.131.8-5.4

Pakistan246.5273.4256.510.9

Sri Lanka599.9927-2.354.5

Other Asian developing countries8,199.6011,016.2046.234.4

China, People's Republic of1,587.602,404.507451.5

Hong Kong1,672.102,215.4015.232.5

South Korea454.5706.869.255.5

Malaysia537.1465.540.8-13.3

Singapore1,669.102,652.20137.758.9

Thailand370466.311.426

Africa1,861.902,501.3037.934.3

Benin21.163.4-12.9200.9

Egypt, Arab Republic186.927024.844.5

Kenya197.4212.61127.7

South Africa470.5695.8121.247.9

Sudan109.2149.4171.436.8

Tanzania79.494.4919

Zambia18.7302.360.7

Latin American countries903.61,465.2045.562.1

Others32.747.8-47.946

Unspecified195.977.9710.3-60.2

Total35,995.1043,883.9031.321.9

Table-8.5: Growth of major imports markets

Imports in

April-September

2004-05

($ Million)Imports in April-September

2005-06



2005-06 (%)

OECD countries16,353.8021,624.8025.332.2

EU7,844.2010,075.1020.828.4

Belgium2,072.002,509.3019.221.1

France548.1676.81223.5

Germany1,655.102,505.2031.651.4

Italy593.7760.619.828.1

Netherlands328.4480.133.146.2

U.K.1,482.001,834.300.823.8

North America3,038.403,787.5019.624.7

Canada263.6391.2-2.648.4

U.S.A.2,774.803,396.4022.222.4

Asia and Oceania2,991.903,818.1040.827.6

Australia1,597.202,232.6066.739.8

Japan1,338.601,520.6018.913.6

Other OECD countries2,479.303,944.0030.859.1

Switzerland2,366.803,774.4032.659.5

OPEC3,925.905,191.6078.732.2

Indonesia1,218.301,203.2021-1.2

Iran159.5306.127.391.9

Iraq0.50.8

Kuwait96.9140.743.945.1

Saudi Arabia529.7658.584.924.3

U.A.E.1,606.002,452.50178.452.7

Eastern Europe1,113.901,747.6045.656.9

Romania83.1164.8165.598.2

Russia592.7934.535.457.7

Developing countries12,081.5015,671.1027.929.7

Asia9,575.8012,467.6036.430.2

SAARC378.2561.138.148.4

Bangladesh19.735.8-53.881.6

Bhutan28.939.316.636

Maldives0.20.7

Nepal162.5179.745.810.6

Pakistan41.274.427.480.5

Sri Lanka125.7231.2100.883.9

Other Asian developing countries9,197.6011,906.5036.329.5

China, People's Republic of2,992.504,251.7069.342.1

Hong Kong734.61,045.9014.942.4

South Korea1,417.901,794.702226.6

Malaysia1,017.101,040.208.12.3

Singapore1,113.501,336.6038.520

Thailand357.8524.626.146.6

Africa1,661.302,101.40-3.526.5

Benin51.655.721.38

Egypt, Arab Republic84.6128.834.252.3

Kenya20.42312.212.8

South Africa831.71,221.30-23.646.8

Sudan13.814.3-9.23.2

Tanzania28.317.831.1-37.1

Zambia9.520.3112.3

Latin American countries844.41,102.0020.630.5

Others6.313.967.8120.9

Unspecified14,644.1021,067.7057.243.9

Total48,125.4065,316.6038.435.7

9CAPITAL INFLOWS

Total Foreign Investment grew by 1592 $ million in Sept 2005 on account portfolio investment. The addition made by foreign direct investment to the total reserves remained same as in September 2004. The non resident deposits with the scheduled commercial banks went up by $ 174 million in April September 2005 as against a negative $ 653 million in April September 2004.

Table-9.1: Monthly trends in foreign investments ($ million)

Foreign direct investmentsPortfolio investmentsTotal foreign investments

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April217268881-3371098-69

May217654-322-90-105564

June380264-4771291-971555

July173324-4321708-2592032

August601399448122410491623

September 28228241413106961592

October2148071021

November18630323218

December3167511067

January152-183-31

February23823902628

March27516001875

April-September25962855512510631087961


Table-9.2: Growth on non-resident deposits with commercial banks ($ million)

April- September

2004-05April- September

2005-06

Foreign currency non resident (Banks)12669

Non resident (external) Rupee account-779105

Total-653174


10FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES

In 2005 06 the monthly average addition to reserves was recorded at 0.2%, which is much lower than the addition in 2003 04 and 2004 05. In November 2005 , total reserves fell to $ 142 billion from $ 143.7 billion in October 2005 due to slight erosion of foreign currency assets in the month.Table-10.1: Monthly trends in foreign exchange reserves ($ billion)

2003-04Change2004-05Change2005-06Change

April78.32.2118.55.5141.80.3

May82.34.0119.40.9138.9-2.9

June83.20.6119.50.1138.4-0.5

July85.62.3118.4 -1.1140.52.1

August87.31.8118.2-0.2 143.83.3

September 92.34.8119.61.4143.0-0.6

October93.81.4121.31.7143.70.5

November97.43.5128.26.9142.1-1.1

December103.25.8131.23.0

January106.43.2129.5-1.8

February109.63.2135.96.4

March113.03.4141.55.6

Monthly average addition to reserves3.02.30.2


11TRENDS IN EXCHANGE RATES

US Dollar continues to strengthen in the November month of 2005-06 , a change of 2% was registered in November 2005 . Indian Rupee strengthens vis-a vis Euro during in November 2005 . Table-11.1: Exchange rate of rupee (per unit of other currencies).

US dollarEuro

Exchange rateChange (%)Exchange rateChange (%)

2004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-062004-052005-06

April43.943.7-2.40.052.753.5-4.6-7.3

May45.343.53.1-0.554.355.33.03.4

June45.543.60.50.255.353.01.8-4.1

July46.043.51.1-0.256.552.52.2-1.0

August46.343.60.70.256.453.60.02.1

September 46.143.9-0.50.756.353.2-0.3-0.8

October45.844.8-0.72.157.254.21.61.9

November45.145.7-1.52.058.553.92.5-0.68

December43.6-3.359.41.5

January43.80.557.5-3.2

February43.7-0.256.9-1.0

March43.70.057.71.4

Change since June 02-3.2-6.77.215.30


Table-11.2: Trends in REER: Trade based weights 1993-94 = 100

2004-052005-06

REER 36 countriesChange (%)REER 36 countriesChange (%)

April104.0104.92.1

May102.1-1.9106.51.5

June102.40.3108.11.6

July101.4-0.9109.71.4

August102.00.6108.4-1.1

September 102.90.8108.2-0.2

October101.8-1.1

November101.90.1

December102.40.5

January103.00.6

February103.50.4

March102.7-0.8

Source: Reserve Bank of India3637

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