The Syria Storyboard…

WHAT IS THE LIKELY IMPACT ON INDIA OF ITS NEUTRALITY IN THE SYRIA CRISIS?

Captain Vishal Kumar Verma

28 NHCC

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WHAT IS THE LIKELY IMPACT ON INDIA OF ITS NEUTRALITY IN THE

SYRIA CRISIS?1

A Maze of Relations – Linkages of Links. History has been running fast in Syria. Syria is a news now and that goes stale by day end. The rebels are fighting the Assad’s who are supported by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Rebels are supported by the Americans,

Britain and a whole lot of states along with Saudi Arabia. While the Americans clearly under the pro-democratic drive wanted the Rebels to come to power, cannot take out Assad for fear

of directly at cross-swords with Russia and Iran. ISIS/ISIL/IS/Daesh is another important player who has jumped into the maze to extend its Caliphate. Kurds want to fight the IS, the fight against IS is also joined by Russia and French post IS claimed 31 Oct 15 crash of Metrojet

92682 and 13/14 Nov 15 Paris killings. IS has become a common enemy to the US, Britain, Russia and France and now the French sponsored UNSC resolution to redouble action on IS.

In this maze, the maximum suffering is taken by the Syrian civilians (children, old and women), the UNs R2P principles have clearly failed. A major chunk of responsibility of birth of this crisis could be shared between the US and Russia, who kind of supported opposing sides,

giving rise to colloquial monsters that grew beyond the control of the creators.3 India has been watching these developments from the side-lines, but there remain many questions on its

neutrality to be answered. Questions for India? As India emerges a contender for UNSC, the world

looks upon India to participate actively not only in global decision-making but also in its action orientation.4 This would be looked upon in a contextual sense and also as a nation that stands

for virtues, that it has propagated and pursued so far. To support the chemical-attackers or to support the regime up-setters / democratic revolution? Is neutrality a stand in itself? Is it justifiable to witness a fight, standing close-by and not have a clear articulation of side? The

short paper attempts to seek answers to these questions and the overall impact on India of its current stand in Syria.

Interests that interest India. India traditionally has been at good terms with Syria and especially with the Assad regime.5 Though the commercial interests in Syria per-se

1 The article consists of __ words. The word-count does not include a, an, the, headings, words in diagrams and

footnotes.

2 The exact cause of crash is still not ascertained; some evidence also points towards an Israeli AAM. Air crash

in Egypt: Was the Russian plane shot down? (2015, Nov 21). Retrieved from www.veteranstoday.com:

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/11/21/air-crash-in-egypt-was-the-russian-plane-shot-down/ (accessed on 22 Nov 15)

3 Ratna, T. (2014, Jan 28). India's Syria Venture. Opinion. The Hindu.

4 Ibid.Xyz, two leaders clain that has to be added

5 Ministry of External Affairs, GoI (2014). India-Syria Relations. New Delhi: MEA, GoI. Retrieved from

http://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Syria_Dec2014.pdf India and Syria have been on a long cordial track with 24 high-level visits to either side over the past 58 years.

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are not large.6 India has to wind up all the businesses including the oil fields along with Chinese, owing to the crisis.7 Syria's current regimes relations with Iran and Russia, also shape

India’s relations and importantly it’s gateway link to Pakistan through Afghanistan through Iran – a rather long chain but does exist. More importantly a pro-Sunni regime change may put

extremists closer to our gates.8 A major shuffle, as a fallout of this crisis or spread of ISIS, in Middle East thought process, could also impinge on our Energy basket. This could send our economy in a spiral down. In order to safeguard our interests, can we exercise military options...

Fighting Others Wars – Military Neutrality. India has still not grown sufficient ly

tall to embroil in an outside conflict, whichever be the side.9 This stems from IPKF experience, financial burden to sustain the war effort and definitely a negative Boots on ground approach, even the Westerners are wary of the thought, given the Battle of Mogadishu experience. This

also has to be considered in light of the meek-response India had against Pakistan post the Parliament attacks and Mumbai attacks of 26/11. Hence, a military involvement in Syria,

irrespective of the diplomatic cost seems out of the equation. Politico-Diplomatic Neutrality? While military neutrality has almost been a

given, whether India has been politico-diplomatically neutral or not remains to be examined. In ways, both Yes and No. Yes, because it has not sided any individual but has remained neutral

to the stature of government. No, because a stance which is pro-present regime is still a stance.10 India chose to remain aligned to the BRICS party line of not involving directly into the conflict, only to find Russia breaking the protocol and clearly supporting the Bashar-al-Assad regime.11

6 Ibid. Trade with Syria was gradually growing. Exports were $536 mn and imports at $178 mn in 2011-12. The

same started to decline 2012-13 onwards owing to the 'Syrian Crisis'. The Indian government has kind of nurtured

and nursed the relation with credit lines US $ 25 million and US $ 100 million towards Hama Iron & Steel Plant

and to part finance the extension of the Tishreen Power Plant , respectively. India has also an involvement in the

field of IT, bio-technology, fertiliser culture, herbs, tractors, double taxation avoidance and oil explo ration in

Block 24 near Deir-e-Zor in northern Syria and investment by ONGC India and CNPC China to jointly acquire

the 37% stake of PetroCanada in the Syrian Al Furat Petroleum Company .

7 Taneja, K. (2013, Apr 27). India abandons Syrian oil fields. The Sunday Guardian. “India also has a 1,927 sq

km block in the central-eastern part of Syria, called Block-XXIV, where OVL has invested nearly $44 million in Exploration & Production (E&P) activities.”

8 Multiple

(a) Taneja, K. (2015, Sep 21). India and the Syrian Civil War. How has India, a potential permanent UNSC

member, approached the crisis in Syria? The Diplomat. Speaking in Geneva, Khurshid said, “… Any spill over from the Syrian conflict has the potential of impacting negatively on our larger interests.”

(b) Ratna, T. (2014, Jan 28). India's Syria Venture. Opinion. The Hindu. “For all his flaws, Bashar al-Assad

runs one of the few secular regimes in the Middle East. India supports Syria’s right to the Golan Heights, and in

exchange, Syria endorses India’s position that Kashmir is a bilateral issue.”

9 Taneja, K. (2015, Sep 21). India and the Syrian Civil War. How has India, a potential permanent UNSC member,

approached the crisis in Syria? The Diplomat. “There can be no military solution to this conflict,” said an Indian Ministry of External Affairs statement in 2013.

10 Taneja, K. Ibid. ‘Syrian Ambassador to India, Riad Kammel Abbas said “Frankly speaking, I have already said

this that if everybody has done what India has done; we wouldn’t have any problem in Syria. And Modi has made

it very clear that there’s no bad terrorism and good terrorism. There’s only terrorism”. Consequently, India’s

position on the Assad government leans more towards support than strict neutrality.’

11 Ibid. “India faced an impossible balancing act, given its friendly relations with every rival — the U.S., Russia,

Iran, Israel, Syria — a fact that amazes observers. Adroitly manoeuvring out of the tight spot of having to pick a

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India has diplomatic friends fighting on either side whether its USA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Russia or Iran, what remains are the Rebels, Kurds and the IS. Though it remains to

be questioned whether India's neutrality, is right or not, at the moment.

Outcomes. India's neutrality is likely to throw up certain outcomes – depending upon the outcomes of the ongoing civil war, foreign intervention and sectarian (Shia – Sunni fervour) against the backdrop of the IS.

Definite Outcome

There were little expectations from India during the Geneva II convention as to whether it would side Russia or the USA, where-in India went the BRICS way – RTR (respect the regime).

However, it clearly displayed its incapability to stand for its issues in the hardware domain of making that happen, possibly because of lack of capacity and risk taking appetite. That calls

for a poor contender for UNSC permanent membership as well as a larger say in Global affairs.

Probable Outcomes

#1 Assad Regime is fully restored with an end to civil war. A full- fledged restoration though remote due to the number of actors involved with divergent interests,

while USA-group may eventually side Russia to avoid a face-off, the IS and sectarian elements may still not make it feasible for full regime restoration. Getting them to negotiation tables is also difficult. However, if this happens and Assad continues in

power, India gets to gain for remaining neutral to the current regime. India would definitely have a stake in nation re-building of Syria. But, this would mean an economic

drain on India, as little could be expected in return at least for the next decade after the crisis. However, this provides a continued relation with Russia and Iran, who have commonality of interests. This seems important from the influence wielded by Russia

on China and Pakistan, as well as of Iran on Pakistan and Afghanistan, consequently the Persian Gulf bordering Iran in the maritime dimension.

#2 Non Assad Regime but Government Continues with the boundaries intact and civil war ended. The possibility and outcome index to India remains same, except

for the changed leader's outlook towards India.

#3 Rebels with Democratic Ideologies Placed in Power. Indicators are not pro this transition due to a multitude of players – fighting each other, thereby distancing

them from the cause, they started with. India's non-interference would not have a negative view but the probability to democratic transition with elements of extremism is less likely. Even if it happens, it is likely to remain superficial. The regime is likely

to be logger-heads with Russia and Iran and may side the USA and rest of the Arabs backing that cause, if the USA stays long along this side. For India, it remains to be an

unfavourable situation, as India is likely to lose its foothold, there is also a likely pressure on the borders through indirect means via Pakistan. Our pseudo or soft neutrality against the present regime might just work against us.

side, India took a position in alliance with BRICS which eventually sided with Russia, an apt choice given Indian priorities.”

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#4 Splintering of Syria. This is an appetite case and depends on each war-fighting entity's ability or appetite to continue fighting, taking economic

and human losses. If that happens, when that happens, it leaves scope for the boundaries to be re-drawn, though unrecognised. This is both possible and unhealthy for the region

at large and for India as well. This would be an ideal case for continued fighting, human suffering, radicalisation getting fuelled and limited or no economic activity.

#5 Continued State in Flux. The present state could continue with changing dimensions and switching sides for another 3 to 5 years, though the intensity would come down and could be marked by spurts of increase in violence. Spread of violence

cannot be ruled out, some radical Indians could be sucked in. Return opportunities for Indian trade are likely to be negligible. India perhaps would continue to look the other

way, in order to maintain peace with all warring sides.

Situation – Occurrence – Impact Matrix

Situation Occurrence

Chance

Impact / Effects on India

#1 Unlikely Economic drain

Possible Strategic Gains

#2 Unlikely Economic drain, Possible Strategic Gains

Uncertain new leader behaviour

#3 Unlikely Limited or no economic activity Possible Security Implications

Significant diplomatic effort required to straighten cords Possible Energy basket implications

#4 Likely Limited or no economic activity Serious security implications

Energy basket implications Leave it all or wait and watch diplomatic approach

#5 Likely Status quo

Security implications

Summary of Implications to India.

Still a lot of distance to cover, to come out as a clear contender of UNSC permanent

membership and an impactor on global affairs, especially, global security affairs.

In both Likely Situations #4 and #5, India would not gain much, there are moderate to severe implications on security, either due to spread of radicalisation or due to sucking

of some more Indians into the IS theme. Economic activity is likely to continue to ebb. In case of Situation #4, India might run to severe Energy Security issues.

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Road Ahead. India needs a clear vision of What it wants to achieve at the Global Table and then shape its outlook, even if it calls for a major deviation from its Nehruvian Neutralist

Approach. Without any contest, India needs to continually strive to secure our boundaries to avoid terrorism transgressing into it and / or our citizens joining their ranks. Energy Security

also needs a review.

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Bibliography

Govt Reports

1. Ministry of External Affairs, G. o. (2014). India-Syria Relations. New Delhi: MEA,

GoI. Retrieved from http://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Syria_Dec2014.pdf

2. Air crash in Egypt: Was the Russian plane shot down? (2015, Nov 21). Retrieved from www.veteranstoday.com: http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/11/21/air-crash- in-egypt-was-

the-russian-plane-shot-down/ 3. Anand, S. K. (2014 , Jan 04). Should India Take a Proactive Stand on Syria? The

Pioneer.

4. Haque, R. R. (2015, Aug 29). India’s Great Power Perception: The Syrian Conflict

And India’s Elusive Leadership. Retrieved from http://swarajyamag.com: http://swarajyamag.com/world/indias-great-power-perception-the-syrian-conflict-and- indias-elusive- leadership/

5. Hasnain, S. A. (2015, Oct 18). Russia's Stint in Syria: India Should Stick to its Neutral Stand. Retrieved from thequint.com: http://www.thequint.com/opinion/2015/10/18/russias -stint-in-syria- india-should-stick-to-its-neutral-stand

6. Hasnain, S. A. (2015, Oct 15). It is Advantage Russia in Big Power Games in Syria and Iraq. Retrieved from thequint.com: http://www.thequint.com/opinion/2015/10/15/it- is-advantage-russia-in-big-power-games-in-syria-and- iraq

7. Hokayem, E. (May 2013). Syria's Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant. London: Routledge for The International Institute for Strategic Studies.

8. India, P. T. (2015, Sep 19). Syria Praises India's Stand on the Crisis in the Country.

ndtv.com.

9. Kasturi, C. S. (2015, May 11). Syria nudges India to play refree. The Telegraph. Calcutta, West Bengal, India: The Telegraph. Retrieved from telegr.

10. Lefevre, R. (2013). Ashes of Hama The Muslim Brotherhood in Syria. New York: Oxford University Press.

11. Pattnaik, R. (2014, Sep 13). ISIS VS QAEDA: THREAT FOR INDIA. Oped. The

Pioneer.

12. Ratna, T. (2014, Jan 28). India's Syria Venture. Opinion. The Hindu.

13. Taneja, K. (2013, Apr 27). India abandons Syrian oil fields. The Sunday Guardian.

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14. Taneja, K. (2015, Sep 21). India and the Syrian Civil War. How has India, a potential permanent UNSC member, approached the crisis in Syria? The Diplomat.