From:

Investigating Climate Change in India (2005)

Joint Project of DEFRA and MOEF

The SRES ScenariosA1Very rapid economic growth; population peaks mid-century; social,

cultural and economic convergence among regions; market mechanisms dominate.

Subdivisions: A1FI – reliance on fossil fuels; A1T – reliance on non-fossil fuels; A1B – a balance across all fuel sources

A2Self-reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing population; economic growth on regional scales

B1Clean and efficient technologies; reduction in material use; global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability; improved equity; population peaks mid- century

B2 Local solutions to sustainability; continuously increasing population at a lower rate than in A2; less rapid technological change than in B1 and A1

Climate change threatens India: study

Teak and sal forests may dry out, the production of wheat, rice and other major crops could fall and monsoon rainfall will rise, predicts a study on the drastic impact of climate change in India.

The study, says as much as 85 percent of India's forests will change due to climate change by 2030-2100 and that rising sea levels will impact coastal railways, roads, major river basin ecology and rainfall.

The three-year study is a result of the first phase assessment work done by the "Indo-UK Programme on Impact of Climate Change in India", with 450,000 pounds from Britain's Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).

The study shows that rising temperatures may reduce wheat, rice, sorghum, maize productions in vast areas of the country. In many regions, drought will be for longer periods, while in other regions, rainfall will increase, resulting in great change in forests and vegetation.

(Chennai, Nov 17), 2005

Forestry and climate change

In India nearly 200,000 villages are located in or near forests, and depend heavily on forest resources for their livelihood activities. Industry is also a factor, as industry depends on forests for raw materials.

Climate change is likely to impact forest biodiversity through changing biome types and shifting forest boundaries. This will in turn impact the supply of forest products, as well as the livelihoods of forest dependent communities,

The Indian Institute of Science (IISc) Bangalore, in collaboration with the Forest Survey of India and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, undertook this study in 2005 to determine how climate change will impact on forest biomes and boundaries in India.

Description of methodology:

The assessment of projected climate change

impacts on forest ecosystems was conducted

using the Hadley Center Regional Climate

Models (RCMs) (as developed in the climate

change scenarios,), and incorporating climate

projections from these into a model specific to

vegetation changes (BIOME3). Climate

parameters were projected for 2070 and

2100.

Notably, the country’s dominant forest cover, characterised by Moist Savanna (32.5%) and Dry Savanna (33%) is projected to change, such that Tropical Dry Forest (37.2%) and Tropic Seasonal Forest (28.4%) become dominant.

To a smaller extent, Xeric Shrubland is set to decrease in area and Xeric Woodland is expected to increase in the drier regions, while in the colder regions, Boreal and Temperate Conifer coverage decreases while Temperate Deciduous and Temperate Evergreen coverage increases.

Under the A2 scenario, approximately 90% of forest cover shows a change in biome type.

This projected shift in vegetation type may lead to large-scale forest dieback and loss of biodiversity especially in the transition between forest types.

• The project’s case studies in the Western Ghats and Central Himalayas showed that low-income communities are dependent on forest ecosystems for their livelihoods.

• The model shows that while the projected increase in NPP may lead to increased timber and fuelwood supply in the medium term, this increase will not be sustainable: forest dieback and loss of biodiversity will limit forest resources in the longer term

DEFRA MoEF Study 2005

Vulnerability of Indian Forests:

NATCOM Study 2004

Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems in India to Projected Climate Change

The approach used on the application of BIOME-3 model to about 1500 grids (50 km × 50 km) across the Indian region. The climate-related parameters for these grids are from the HadRM2. The expected distribution of biome types over India during 2041-2061 under the GHG scenario. The large-scale changes in the vegetation types are immediately evident from the figure (right panel when compared to the vegetation types prevailing today (left panel).

The expected distribution of biome types in India

Shifts in major forest types considering all grids and potential vegetation

The biome type most seriously impacted is the Dry Savanna. About 62 per cent of it, mainly lying in the northern/central parts of India, is likely to be converted into Xeric Woodland (Dry Thorn Forest), while another 24 per cent, mainly in the north-western parts, is likely to change to Xeric Shrubland.

Shifts with major forest types

considering grids with forests:

Analysis was repeated by confining it to actual

location of forests. Presence of forests in 800

grids was depicted. The results obtained from

the analysis base on these 800 grids were very

similar to that of reported for 1500 grids. Thus

change in forest types seen in 600 out of 800

forested grids (75%)

Needs for further researchThis study demonstrates considerable shifts in vegetative cover throughout India in the short, medium, and long term.

Further research is needed to improve the reliability of climate projections at a regional level as well as use of dynamic vegetation models.

Data limitations in the use of dynamic vegetation models could be overcome by initiating studies to develop databases on:

• Forest vegetation characteristics and plant functional types;

• Plant physiological parameters, soil and water data; and

• Socio-economic dependence and pressures on forest ecosystems.

The Policy Implications?

Climate change is predicted to result in a large scale shifting of forest biomes throughout India.

This may benefit some forest biomes, it may also cause irreversible damage to others, rendering several species extinct and affecting markets, water supply, and energy production. These shifts will impact livelihoods at a community level, as well as impact trade of forest products at the regional and national levels.

As such, policymakers will need to address both the ecological impacts of climate change on the forestry sector, as well as the social and economic impacts on communities. This will require effective forest management practices and policies as well as understanding the inter-relations between communities, government, the private sector, and forestry products.

Agriculture and climate change

The impact of climate change on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends.

Climate change can affect crop yields (both positively and negatively), as well as the types of crops that can be grown in certain areas, by impacting agricultural inputs such as water for irrigation, amounts of solar radiation that affect plant growth, as well as the prevalence of pests.

The Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) examined the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change, with the objective of determining differences in climate change impacts on agriculture by region and by crop.

Wheat Production

• The study found that increases in temperature (by about 2ºC) reduced potential grain yields in most places. Regions with higher potential productivity (north) were relatively less impacted by climate change than areas with lower potential productivity (the reduction in yields was much smaller);

• Climate change is also predicted to lead to boundary changes in areas suitable for growing certain crops.

• Reductions in yields as a result of climate change are predicted to be more pronounced for rain fed crops and under limited water supply situations because there are no coping mechanisms for rainfall variability.

• In sub tropical environments the decrease in potential wheat yields ranged from 1.5 to 5.8%, in tropical areas the decrease was relatively higher, suggesting that warmer regions can expect greater crop losses.

Boundary Changes for Productivity of Irrigated Wheat

4.5t/ha (Climate Change)4.5t/ha (Control)

2.5t/ha (Climate Change)2.5t/ha (Control)

Rice Production• Overall, temperature increases are predicted to reduce rice yields. An increase of 2-4ºC is predicted to result in a reduction in yields.

• Eastern regions are predicted to be most impacted by increased temperatures and decreased radiation, resulting in relatively fewer grains and shorter grain filling durations.

• By contrast, potential reductions in yields due to increased temperatures in Northern India are predicted to be offset by higher radiation, lessening the impacts of climate change.

• Although additional CO2 can benefit crops, this effect was nullified by an increase of temperature.

policy implications of these predictions?

• Food security policy

• Trade policy: changes in certain crops can affect imports/exports • Livelihoods: With agriculture contributing significantly to GNP, it is critical that policy addresses issues of loss of livelihood with changes in crops,

Need to shift some regions to new crops, and the associated skills training required.

• Water policy: Because impacts vary significantly according to whether crops are rain fed or irrigated, water policy will need to consider demand of agricultural due to climate change.

• Adaptive measures: Policy-makers will also need to consider adaptive measures to cope with changing agricultural patterns. Measures may include the introduction of the use of alternative crops, changes to cropping patterns, and promotion of water conservation and irrigation techniques.

Water and climate change

Water supply is not only necessary to sustain human life, input to

many industries and agriculture.

Therefore, the conservation and optimal utilization of this scarce

resource is extremely important for economic development.

India has about 16% of the global population, it only has 4% of total

water resources, and many parts of India already face water

scarcity.

Water is a core component of climate.

The hydrological cycle predicted to shift with climate change, and

can have important implications for fresh water supply for drinking

water, rain-fed agriculture, groundwater supply, forestry,

biodiversity, and sea level.

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) carried out this

study on the impact of climate change on water resources

Changes in Annual Number of Rainy Days (A2 Scenario)

Human Health and climate change

Both climatological and medical communities are increasingly concerned that climate change is likely to have wide-ranging impacts on health. The poor, as well as the elderly, children, and the disabled are likely to be most vulnerable to these changes, as they already face limited access to health facilities.

Among vector-borne diseases in India, malaria is of considerable concern. Periodic epidemics of malaria occur every five to seven years, Climate change could increase the incidence of malaria in areas that are already malaria-prone, and also introduce malaria into new areas.

The National Physical Laboratory (NPL), New Delhi undertook a study of the impacts of predicted climate change on human health in India, with a particular focus on malaria.

Predicted changes in Malaria incidence due to climate change

Transmission windows (TWs) for malaria are predicted to increase with climate change.

For most vectors of malaria, the temperature range of 20ºC – 30ºC is optimal for development and transmission.

A relative humidity higher than 55% is optimal for vector longevity, enabling the successful completion of sporogeny.

Analysis of average temperature, humidity, precipitation and incidences indicate that the maximum incidence occurs in the months of June, July and August when the relative humidity is in the range of >60% and <80%, at temperatures ranging between 25ºC to 30ºC.

This window shifts from state to state depending on the arrival of the monsoon.

Transmission Window of Malaria in Different States of India

(a) for base case and (b) under projected climate change scenario

Health concerns and vulnerabilities due to climate change

Health Concerns Vulnerabilities due to climate change

Temperature related morbidity:

• Heat and cold related illness

• Cardio vascular illnesses

Vector borne diseases

• Changed patterns of diseases by region and by climate parameter

• Malaria, Filaria, Kala-azar, Japanese Encephalitis, and Dengue caused by bacteria, viruses and other pathogens carried by mosquitoes, ticks, and other vectors.

Health effects of extreme weather

• Diarrhoea, Cholera and intoxication caused by biological and chemical contaminants in water.

• Damaged public health infrastructure due to cyclones / floods

• Injuries and illness

• Social and mental health stress due to disasters and displacement

Health effects due to insecurity

• Malnutrition, hunger, particularly in children

in food production

Sea level and climate change

One quarter of the Indian population live along the country’s coasts, and are largely dependent on coastal livelihoods. Climate change effects on sea level can impact coastal areas in two ways – through increase in mean sea level, and through increased frequency and intensity of coastal surges and storms. Climate change is of concern to India in view of the damages that occur along the east coast of

Any increase in the frequency or intensity of tropical disturbances due to climate change in the future could cause increased damages to life and property in the coastal regions.

The National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) conducted a study on the impacts of climate change on sea level to assess the degree to which mean sea level and the occurrence of extreme events may change.

Predicted climate change impacts on sea level

Mean sea level: Mean sea level rise estimates (using past tide gauge data) were found to be slightly less than 1 mm/yr

Storm surges: The study showed a greater number of high surges under climate change.

In addition, the model showed an increased occurrence of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, particularly in the post-monsoon period, along with increased maximum wind speeds associated with cyclones.

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

Predicted climate change impacts on infrastructure

Transportation: Konkan Railway Case Study

India has the largest railway network in the world,

Disruption of services due to climate change impacts could have significant financial and social consequences.

Researchers developed a case study on the Konkan Railway Corporation Limited (KRCL), the coastal railway system runs 760 Km along the Western coastal Ghats of India

Presently, the KRCL reports that 20% of repair and maintenance expenses are due to climatic factors, such as heavy rainfall and extreme weather events.

Temperature increase can directly affect the stability and

strength of building materials, and indirectly increase the

need for air-conditioning on trains;

• Rainfall increase can cause water logging, a direct effect,

as well as erosion, which indirectly leads to increased

maintenance costs;

• Sea level change can also cause land erosion, flooding and water logging, which have both direct (maintenance costs) and indirect (service disruption, location of railroad systems) effects;

• Extreme events can cause direct damage to the rail network.

Energy demand

Existing economic growth scenarios project total power generation capacity in India to increase nine times from 96 GW to 912 GW between 1995-2100.

As a result of climate change, it is estimated that approximately 1.5% more power generation capacity will be required.

Increased energy demand may arise from a number of sources. For example, increases in average temperature can result in the need for space cooling for buildings,

variability in precipitation can impact irrigation needs and consequent demand for energy from groundwater pumping.

Increased demand for energy can increase greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change, creating a feedback effect.