India Chitra Katha Chitra Katha

Chitra Katha

A story told through charts...

India Chitra Katha

Market data

BSE Sensex 28,813

NSE Nifty 8,897

Date Feb 28, 2017

Performance (%)

1m 3m 12m

BSE200 3% 11% 31%

Sensex 3% 9% 24%

Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>),

Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset

GAUTAM SINGH [email protected] +91 22 4228 8152

GAURAV NAGORI, CFA [email protected] +91 44 4344 0072

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17

Sensex BSE 200

S

‘India Chitra Katha’ monitors key macro and market data on an ongoing basis. Importantly, look out for the

interesting charts, which highlights evolving trends, extracted and interpreted from the maze of thousands of

macro and market data points. Key highlights of this issue:-

India Macro Heat Map – what it says. In this month’s edition, we have introduced India Macro Heat Map based on ~40

high frequency macro indicators. Key takeaways: Positive: 1) India's domestic air passenger traffic grew 25.3% yoy to

9.5mn in Jan’17, indicating zero impact from Demonetization. 2) Road freight rates index has recovered to 102.3 in

Feb’17, after witnessing a sharp drop to 84.1 in Dec’16. 3) Nominal wage growth in rural India increased to a 29-month

high of 8.2% in Dec’16 4) Tractor sales grew 5.5% yoy in Jan’17, the second consecutive month of growth, after

contracting sharply by 13.1% in Nov’16. Negative: 1) Cement output contracted 8.7% yoy in Dec’16, the sharpest fall in

over a decade. 2) Diesel sales contracted 7.8% in Jan’17, the 2nd sharpest decline in over a decade. We, however, think

that de-stocking of the hoarded diesel was the main reason behind it as diesel sales had surged 10.5% yoy in Nov’16.

Process of remonetization picks up pace since Jan’17. Total currency in circulation has increased to Rs. 11.3tn as on

17-Feb’17, which is 63% of pre-demon level of Rs. 18tn and is sharply up from 50% as on 6-Jan’17. The money multiplier

has shot up to 8.3 in Jan’17, up 280bps from the Oct’16 level of 5.5 but this is due to a sharp fall in reserve money (M0),

which is down 24% yoy in Jan’17. It would fall sharply as M0 returns to normalcy. We, however, do expect ~50bps higher

money multiplier vs. Oct’16 level after all the re-adjustments, as ~Rs 1.5tn (10% of Rs. 15tn currency of Rs 500 & Rs.

1000) remains with the banks vs. it remaining in cash or gold.

Shift from physical to financial savings gains further momentum. Households are shifting from physical to financial

savings with a clear preference to equity: (1) The number of new demat accounts has increased by 2.4mn to 27.1mn

account in 2016, the highest since 2008. (2) The number of MF investor accounts has increased by 2.2mn to 52.8mn in

Dec’16, up 31% yoy. (3) The pace of average net equity inflows in MFs has doubled since Demon as it has increased to

Rs 80bn per month in last three months vs. an average equity inflow of Rs. 36bn per month during Jan-Oct’16 (4) MF

industry has added about 0.686 mn SIP accounts (Total SIP accounts 12.8mn as of Jan17) each month on an average

during FY17, with an average SIP size of about ₹3,200 per SIP account. Jan 2017 saw total SIP amount collection of Rs

41bn, leading to total AUM of mutual fund industry touching life time high of Rs 17.4tn. Indian capital markets

(Debt+Equity) saw FPI outflows of US$9.5 bn in Nov-Dec16 post demonetization announcement but massive mutual fund

inflows of US$5.3 and US$3.4 in debt and equity respectively in the same period, not only supported the markets amid FII

selling but fueled the rally taking headline indices near life time highs.

Mid and small caps indices outperform Sensex/Nifty post demonetization: Nifty gained 12% since the lows in Dec

16 post demonetization whereas BSE Mid and small cap index posted 18% return so far since Dec lows. BSE Metals,

Realty, Oil&Gas and Banks remained the best performing sectors. Post recent rally, Sensex and BSE midcap index trade

at forward PE(x) of 17x and 18x which is 13% and 35% premium to their respective last 10 years average multiple history.

Chitra Katha Macro Indicators: Heatmap

Growth, %, yoy Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17Latest Month

direction

Credit Card Outstanding 24 24 24 31 30 29 29 27 28 29 23 26

Passenger car sales -1 -4 0 2 -1 -5 10 10 15 0 0 -8 11

Nominal rural wages 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 8 8 8

Tractor sales 0 9 14 14 15 15 8 16 49 44 -13 8 6

Naukri Job index 19 18 22 14 27 22 3 10 5 -8 14 -7 3

Govt. revenue exp (ex. interest) -14 8 14 0 5 62 -37 7 13 54 20 2

Petrol consumption 11 13 22 12 14 4 15 25 -3 14 14 8 -1

Consumer non-durables goods prod. -3 -5 -5 -11 -2 1 -2 -1 0 -3 3 -5

Two wheeler sales 3 13 11 21 10 12 14 26 22 9 -6 -22 -7

Consumer durables goods prod. 6 10 10 12 6 5 6 2 14 1 9 -10

Steel output -3 0 1 5 3 2 1 20 18 12 7 17

Aviation cargo 8 11 12 5 7 9 7 8 10 14 9 11

Electricity genration 6 9 11 15 5 8 2 0 2 3 10 6

Coal output 9 4 2 -1 5 12 5 -9 -6 -2 6 4

Goods exports -13 -5 -5 -6 -1 2 -7 0 5 8 2 6 4

Non oil non gold imports -7 3 -7 -18 -4 -1 -10 -2 -4 2 10 4 4

Manufacturing PMI -10 -3 0 1 -1 -2 1 0 0 6 3 -1 3

Railway freight container Service -4 -3 -2 4 6 -8 1 5 -4 -2 8 0

CV sales 18 20 22 17 17 6 0 2 -2 12 -12 -5 -1

MHCVs 34 34 29 22 21 2 -8 -11 -21 17 -13 -12 1

LCVs 7 10 17 14 14 8 6 11 16 9 -11 1 -2

Industrial output -2 2 0 -1 1 2 -3 -1 1 -2 6 0

Capital goods -22 -9 -15 -25 -12 -16 -29 -22 -22 -27 15 -3

Government capex 27 -7 20 30 67 8 17 35 28 10 -16 -4

Industrrial credit 6 5 3 0 1 1 1 0 1 -2 -3 -4

Diesel consumption 8 11 15 4 8 1 2 13 -11 5 11 1 -8

Cement output 9 14 12 4 2 10 1 3 6 6 1 -9

Life Insurance: First Year Premium 48 40 51 27 29 4 59 61 4 113 18 28

Air passenger traffic: Domestic 23 24 25 21 22 21 26 24 24 23 23 24 25

Foreign Tourist Arrivals 7 11 12 11 4 7 17 12 13 10 9 14 16

Personal Loans 18 19 19 20 19 18 19 18 20 17 15 14

Indirect tax collection 26 22 19 33 42 27 19 19 19 26 47 13

Deposits 10 10 8 9 9 9 8 9 13 9 16 16 13

Wireless subscribers 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 7 9 12

Direct tax collection 19 2 -3 80 -4 22 14 -14 0 29 80 2

Railway passenger traffic 3 4 -1 0 1 -1 1 2 0 -1 7 -2

Services exports -12 -13 -8 -1 13 4 -5 -1 3 -2 11 -2

Services PMI 4 -5 3 3 3 5 2 6 1 2 -7 -13 -10

Three wheeler sales 11 32 21 37 27 10 2 9 5 4 -26 -36 -28

Co

nsu

mp

tio

nIn

vestm

en

tS

erv

ices

Chitra Katha

Segment-wise contribution to growth (ppt):

Consumption stable, investment is a drag

Source: CSO, Spark Capital Research

Investment contracts 4.6% while HH

consumption maintains upward trend


Supply side GDP growth witnesses

marginal improvement in Q2 led by...


... pick up in Agri GDP growth while

Industrial GDP growth decelerates


Construction activities picks up in Q2 FY17

while mining activities remain muted.


Gradual improvement in economic growth led by Govt capex and HH consumption; pvt capex still missing

Nominal GDP growth swings back into

double digits in Q2 on higher GDP deflator


7.6

7.1 7.36.4

10.4

12.1

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

(%, yoy)

Real GDP growth Nominal GDP growth

3.54.6 4.6

3.7 4.1

0.4

0.3 0.2 2.0 1.83.4

0.7

-0.9-1.7

-2.5-0.9 -0.5

-0.1

2.1 2.31.2

2.1 4.1

0.91.5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16

C G I (X-M) Discrepancies

6.36.7

7.6

9.6

-4.6

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

Dec-1

3

Mar-

14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Mar-

15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

(%, yoy)

HH consumption Investment (GCF)

2.0 1.83.3

6.3 6.05.2

9.0 9.68.9

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

(%, yoy)

Agriculture Industry Services

7.3

7.37.1

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Real GVA growth (%, yoy)

-1.5

3.5

-5

-2

1

4

7

10

13

16

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

(%, yoy)

Mining Construction

Macro Indicators: Growth

Chitra Katha

Electricity prod. growth decelerates to 6.3%


Industrial output contracts in Dec’17,

reflecting weak demand post Demon


The contraction in IIP was led by a 2% fall

in manufacturing output


PMI, however, indicates expansion in

Manu. activities after contracting in Dec’16


Mining production growth rebounds…


Segment-wise weight in IIP (%)


Industry-wise break-up of IIP: Industrial output contracts, reflecting weak demand post Demonetization


Mining 14.16

Manufacturing

75.53

Electricity 10.32

-0.9

5.7

-0.4

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, yoy

Industrial Production Index (IIP)

-1.9

-2.9

0.6

-1.0

-3.6

0.7 1.0

-3.5

-0.3

1.0

-2.4

5.5

-2.0

-8

-4

0

4

8

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, y

oy

Manufacturing

2.8

1.5 5

.0

0.3 0.7

1.7

5.3

0.8

-5.9

-3.4

-0.7

3.7

5.2

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, yoy

Mining

3.2

8.9

6.3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18D

ec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, y

oy

Electricity

49.1

54.4

49.6

50.4

47

50

53

56

Ap

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Jul-

14

De

c-1

4

May-1

5

Oct-

15

Mar-

16

Au

g-1

6

Jan

-17

India manufacturing PMI

Chitra Katha

Consumer goods production plummets,

led by…


…fall in both durables and non-durables

goods output


Cap goods prod. slips back into the

contraction zone


Basic goods output growth sustains

upward momentum


Intermediate goods production contracts in

Dec’17


Segment-wise weight in IIP (%)


Sector-wise break-up of IIP: Consumer goods output witnesses a sharp contraction in Dec’16


3.2

-0.1

0.6

0.6

-2.0

1.2

2.8

1.4

0.6

6.1

-1.4

5.2

-6.8

-8

-3

3

8

13

18

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, yoy

Consumer Goods

Capital Goods 8.8

Consumer Goods:

Durables 8.5

Consumer Goods:

Non Durables

21.3

Basic Goods 45.7

Intermediate Goods

15.7

-18.6

-21.6

-9.3

-15.3

-25.3

-12.5

-16.1

-29.4 -2

2.4

-21.6

-26.9

15.0

-3.0

-35-30-25-20-15-10

-505

10152025

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, yoy

Capital Goods

16.6

9.4

-10.3

-2.7 2.5-5.0

-11

-1

9

19

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

%,

yoy

Durables Non Durables

0.7

4.2

5.3

0

2

4

6

8

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, y

oy

Basic Goods

1.5 2

.6

-1.2

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8D

ec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, y

oy

Intermediate Goods

Chitra Katha

Eight core industries grow by 5.6% in

Dec’16

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry

Cement output witnesses the sharpest fall

in over a decade


Refinery production and coal output grow

in single digit


Electricity output posts steep recovery


Fertilizer prod. falls


Prod. of natural gas remains weak



-4.1

-5.3

-0.8

-6.1

-1.70.0

-16-14-12-10

-8-6-4-20246

%, yoy

Crude Oil Natural Gas

-3.1

14.9

4.1

-8.7

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, yo

y

Steel Cement

5.3

4.4

2.1

6.4

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, yoy

Coal Refinery Products

13.5

6.2

16.3

22.9

7.9

14.8

9.8

-4.3

5.7

2.0

0.8

2.4

-4.8-5

-2

1

4

7

10

13

16

19

22D

ec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, yoy

Fertilizers

0.5

5.0

6.6

4.9

5.6

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

%, y

oy

Eight core industries index

Eight core infra-related sectors: Cement output witnesses the sharpest fall in over a decade

0.7

1.1

8.9

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

%,

yoy

Electricity

Chitra Katha

…led by a mild recovery in MHCV sales

Source: SIAM, Spark Capital Research

6.51.2 -1.9

33.5

-12.4

0.6

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, yoy

LCV: Domestic sales MHCV: Domestic sales

MHCV exports witnessed a steep fall in

Jan’17


41.0

-39.0

18.6

37.5

-40-30-20-10

010203040506070

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, y

oy

LCV exports MHCV exports

CV sales returning to normalcy...


Domestic PV sales recovers in Jan’17


Two-wheeler sales see a sharp rebound


Three-wheeler sales remain weak


Auto sales: Domestic auto sales witness recovery in Jan’17 led by PVs and CVs sectors


17.5

-0.7

32.7

-13.5

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, yoy

CV: Domestic sales CV exports

0.6

14.4

-6.7

15.5

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, y

oy

PV: Domestic sales PV exports

-7.4

-10.0

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, y

oy

2-Wheeler sales: Domestic 2-Wheeler exports

11.5

-28.2

-20.1-24.8

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, y

oy

3-Wheeler sales: Domestic 3-W exports (RHS)

Chitra Katha

Lead indicators hint at gradual recovery in economic activities ahead


Road freight rates go up in Feb’17


Air passenger traffic up 25.3% in Jan’17


Diesel consumption growth remains muted


Weak Rail Freight Traffic in Dec’16


Tractor sales growth inches up in Jan’17


Hiring activities marginally up in Jan’17


5.6

1.2

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Apr-

16

Jul-1

6

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

Diesel consumption (Volume, % yoy, 3MMA)

5.9

-3.8

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep

-12

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Rail Freight Traffic: Container Service (Volume, % yoy)

22.0

-7.0

3.0

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

Ma

y-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

Ma

y-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

Ma

y-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

Ma

y-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

Naukri Job index (yoy, %)

-15.6 -0

.2

23.5

25.3

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Apr-

16

Jul-1

6

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

Air Passenger Traffic: Domestic (%, yoy)

84.1

102.3

80

90

100

110

120

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

May-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

May-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

May-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

May-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Road freight index (Base Jan'12=100)

49.4

-13.1

5.5

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

Tractor sales Volume

Chitra Katha

Households are shifting from physical to financial savings with a clear preference to equity

Macro Indicators: Savings

The number of new demat accounts has increased by 2.4mn to

27.1mn account in 2016, the highest since 2008

Sharp rise in monthly MFs equity inflows

Source: AMFI, Spark Capital Research

The number of MF investor accounts has increased by 2.2mn to

52.8mn in Dec’16, up accounts 31% yoy

MFs AUM increased to Rs 17.4 tn in Jan’17 (12% of GDP)

Source: AMFI, Spark Capital Research

7.5 7.9 8.3 8.7 9.5 11.9

11.5 12 12.6 13.1 13.8

15.3 19 19.9 20.9 21.8

23.3

27.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Dec-16

Total Demat Accounts (mn)

CDSL NSDL

47

39.5

52.8

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

Jun

-09

De

c-0

9

Jun

-10

De

c-1

0

Jun

-11

De

c-1

1

Jun

-12

De

c-1

2

Jun

-13

De

c-1

3

Jun

-14

De

c-1

4

Jun

-15

De

c-1

5

Jun

-16

De

c-1

6

MF Investor Accounts (mn)

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

Net equity flows in MFs (Rs. bn)

Cumulative MF inflows in equity during Sep'04-Mar14 = Rs. 862bn

(MFs inflows in last 34 months are 2.3x of what they got in a decade) Rs 2tn

4.1

8.3

17.4

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Au

g-0

6

Jan

-07

Jun

-07

No

v-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Fe

b-0

9

Jul-

09

De

c-0

9

May-1

0

Oct-

10

Mar-

11

Au

g-1

1

Jan

-12

Jun

-12

No

v-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Jul-

14

De

c-1

4

May-1

5

Oct-

15

Mar-

16

Au

g-1

6

Jan

-17

Mutual Funds: Assets Under Management (Rs. tn)

Chitra Katha

Budget allocation for MNREGA has been increased to Rs 480bn in

FY18, the highest ever

Source: GoI, Spark Capital Research

Rural continues to be the major focus area for Budget as the word

“rural” features 22 times in Budget speech

Source: GoI, Spark Capital Research

Foodgrains output is estimated to grow at 8.1% in FY17


Rural wage growth surges to a 29-month high of 8.2% in Dec’16

Source: Labour Bureau,

Pick up in rural wage growth + higher farm output + higher MNREGA spend

Macro Indicators: Rural India

17.6

8.2

4.3

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ap

r-0

6

De

c-0

6

Au

g-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

De

c-0

8

Au

g-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

De

c-1

0

Au

g-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

De

c-1

2

Au

g-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

De

c-1

4

Au

g-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

De

c-1

6

Nominal rural wage growth ( % yoy) Rural wage growth:Real ( % yoy)

198.4

208.6

217.3

230.8

234.5

218.1

244.5

259.3

257.1

265.0

252.0

251.6

272.0

-7.0

4.2

6.2

1.6

-7.0

12.1

6.1

-0.8

3.1

-4.9

-0.2

8.1

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Foodgrains production (ton mn): (%, yoy)

113 120

300

391 401 400

330 334 325

373

475 480

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

FY

17

FY

18

BE

Central allocation for NREGA (Rs. bn)

34

26

22 20

17

22

17

20

11

5

11

23 22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Number of times the word "rural" featured in Budget Speech

Chitra Katha

CPI inflation remains low while WPI inflation continues upward momentum

Macro Indicators: Inflation

CPI inflation eases down to 3.2% in Jan’17

Source: GoI

While food inflation drops to 1.3%...

Source: GoI

...core CPI inflation inches up to 5.1%

Source: GoI

3.23.4

2.9

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

Infla

tion,

%, yoy

CPI Rural CPI Urban CPI

1.3

1.7

0.60

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

Infla

tion,

%, yoy

Food CPI Rural food CPI Urban food CPI

5.1

5.6

4.6

3

4

5

6

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

Inflation, %

, yo

y

Core CPI Rural core CPI

WPI inflation rises to 5.2%...

Source: Office of the Economic Adviser

...led by high fuel inflation


Manufactured index up (m/m)


-2.0

2.7

-1.1

5.2

-5-4-3-2-10123456

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, yo

y

Core WPI WPI inflation

-0.6

18.1

-16

-11

-6

-1

4

9

14

19Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, yo

y

Food inflation Fuel inflation

0.2

0.3

0.6

0.9

0.4

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.1

0.5

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, m

om

Manufactured products index (%, mom)

Chitra Katha

RBI keeps policy rate unchanged at 6.25%

Source: RBI, Spark Capital Research

No change in CRR and SLR


MCLR is down by 80bps since Nov’16

Source: CEIC, Spark Capital Research

Liquidity surplus surges to Rs4tn in Feb’17


10-year G-sec yields up 70bps since Nov’16

Source: CEIC, Spark Capital Research

Yield curve shifts upwards & steepens

Source: Bloomberg, Spark Capital Research

MCLR down by 80bps + 10 year G-sec yields up 70bps + Net surplus liquidity up to Rs 4tn

Macro Indicators: Interest Rates

6.25

5.75

6.75

5

6

7

8

9

10

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

%

Repo Reverse Repo MSF rate

4.0 4.0

22.00

20.50

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Sep

-14

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Jul-1

6

Sep

-16

Nov-1

6

Jan

-17

CRR (%) SLR (%) - RHS

8.03

6.92

6.26 6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Mar-

15

Jun

-15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

10-year Gsec yield (%)

8.37

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 9Y 10Y 15Y

%

Current 1M back

6M back 1Y back

-1985

2724

4201 7.3

6.7

5.9 5.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.6

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Ap

r 1

5

Jun

15

Au

g 1

5

Oct 1

5

De

c 1

5

Fe

b 1

6

Ap

r 1

6

Jun

16

Au

g 1

6

Oct 1

6

De

c 1

6

Fe

b 1

7

Net liquidity (Rs bn) Call money rate (%) - RHS

6.25

9.35

9.00

8.20

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

5

6

7

8

9

Sep

-10

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-1

2Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Ma

r-1

6Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6M

ar-

17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Repo rate Base Rate: Five Major Banks (%) MCLR (%)

MCLR has dropped 80bps in Jan'17

Chitra Katha

Deposit growth remains significantly higher

than credit growth


Credit-deposit ratio inches up to 70.8%


Investment deposit ratio falls


Forex reserves up by $2.5bn from Dec’16


Import covers remain near 12-months mark


RBI’s intervention comes down in Dec’16


Deposit growth remains 8.5ppt higher than credit growth, CD ratio inches up

Macro Indicators: Monetary Conditions

13.5

5.0

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

5-F

eb-1

6

4-M

ar-

16

1-A

pr-

16

29-A

pr-

16

27-M

ay-1

6

24-J

un

-16

22-J

ul-

16

19-A

ug

-16

16-S

ep

-16

14-O

ct-

16

11-N

ov-1

6

9-D

ec-1

6

6-J

an

-17

3-F

eb-1

7

%, yo

y

Deposit growth Credit growth

74.2

70.8

68

70

72

74

76

78

5-F

eb

-16

4-M

ar-

16

1-A

pr-

16

29

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ma

y-1

6

24

-Jun

-16

22

-Jul-

16

19

-Au

g-1

6

16

-Se

p-1

6

14

-Oct-

16

11

-Nov-1

6

9-D

ec-1

6

6-J

an-1

7

3-F

eb

-17

Credit Deposit Ratio (%)

32.9

2526272829303132333435

5-F

eb-1

6

4-M

ar-

16

1-A

pr-

16

29-A

pr-

16

27-M

ay-1

6

24-J

un

-16

22-J

ul-

16

19-A

ug

-16

16-S

ep

-16

14-O

ct-

16

11-N

ov-1

6

9-D

ec-1

6

6-J

an

-17

3-F

eb-1

7

Investment Deposit Ratio (%)

362.8

345

355

365

375

29-J

an

-16

11-M

ar-

16

22-A

pr-

16

3-J

un

-16

15-J

ul-

16

26-A

ug

-16

7-O

ct-

16

18-N

ov-1

6

30-D

ec-1

6

10-F

eb-1

7

US

$, bn

Foreign Exchange Reserves ($, bn)

10.2

12.1 11.4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-16

Jul-1

6

Sep

-16

Nov-1

6

Jan

-17

Import cover (no. of month)

0.0

-3.3

4.7

1.3

0.6

1.9

1.4

0.9

4.6

-0.4

-2.7

0.5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

US

$,

bn

RBI Intervention: Net US$ Purchase

Chitra Katha

Credit growth in Agri and Retail sector plummets

Source: MOSPI, Spark Capital Research

Industrial credit growth declines to historic low of -4.3 in Dec’16

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)

Services sector credit growth inches up in Dec’16, from 7.1% in

Nov’16

Source: SEBI, Spark Capital Research

Credit card outstanding growth inches up in Dec’16, following a

temporary dip in Nov’16

Source: CGA, Spark Capital Research

Sectoral deployment of credit: Broad-based slowdown in credit offtake in Dec16…


-4.3

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Sep

-12

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Industrial credit

7.1

8.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

Dec-1

1

Mar-

12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec-1

2

Mar-

13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Mar-

14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Mar-

15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Services credit

22.2

26.3

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Sep

-12

Dec-1

2

Mar-

13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Mar-

14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Mar-

15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Credit Card Outstanding (%, yoy)

15.3

8.2

19.2

13.5

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Sep

-12

Dec-1

2

Mar-

13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Mar-

14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Mar-

15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Cre

dit g

row

th (%

)

Agri credit Personal Loans

Chitra Katha

…led by contraction in industrial credit; Sharp decline in Agri and personal credit growth

Share (%) (Rs. Bn)

Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Jul-16 Dec-15

I Gross Bank Credit (II + III) 100.0 66,458 3.3 4.0 6.4 11.5 7.6 7.7 9.2

II Food Credit 1.0 669 -38.3 -40.9 -11.8 56.5 -26.5 -28.1 1.7

III Non-food Credit (1 to 4) 99.0 65,790 4.0 4.8 6.7 10.8 8.2 8.3 9.3

1 Agriculture & Allied Activities 13.7 9,113 8.2 10.3 13.0 15.9 13.6 13.4 12.7

2 Industry (Micro & Small, Medium and Large ) 38.8 25,791 -4.3 -3.4 -1.7 0.9 -0.2 0.6 4.9

3 Services 23.8 15,794 8.3 7.1 9.3 18.4 12.1 10.8 8.1

3.1 Transport Operators 1.5 1,021 6.1 5.6 6.0 9.2 11.1 12.8 6.6

3.2 Computer Software 0.3 180 -5.5 -9.1 -5.7 -7.3 -4.2 -5.5 6.7

3.3 Tourism, Hotels and Restaurants 0.6 375 -2.3 0.5 2.2 3.2 3.5 4.4 4.6

3.4 Shipping 0.2 107 3.1 1.9 1.8 -5.6 -2.4 -2.6 4.6

3.5 Professional Services 1.8 1,194 22.7 24.5 31.0 32.7 27.2 30.7 19.1

3.6 Trade 5.7 3,785 4.3 3.4 9.5 10.1 6.9 5.1 8.0

3.6.1 Wholesale Trade (other than food procurement) 2.6 1,708 4.1 2.5 7.3 2.8 0.4 -2.7 1.7

3.6.2 Retail Trade 3.1 2,077 4.5 4.2 11.2 16.7 13.0 12.4 13.9

3.7 Commercial Real Estate 2.7 1,778 3.2 3.2 4.6 9.8 9.8 8.8 5.9

3.8 Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) 4.8 3,221 2.3 1.3 5.1 25.0 15.2 15.5 5.5

3.9 Other Services 6.2 4,134 19.1 15.8 12.1 29.1 15.1 10.3 10.0

4 Personal Loans 22.7 15,092 13.5 15.2 17.0 19.7 18.1 18.8 18.5

4.1 Consumer Durables 0.3 194 16.3 18.2 20.3 21.5 19.2 18.4 13.4

4.2 Housing (Including Priority Sector Housing) 12.3 8,197 14.8 15.6 16.6 18.0 16.7 17.2 18.9

4.3 Advances against Fixed Deposits 0.9 600 -5.5 -3.3 0.9 9.8 1.3 5.2 6.4

4.4 Advances to Individuals against share, bonds, etc. 0.1 47 -20.6 -20.5 -20.7 5.4 0.0 6.9 19.4

4.5 Credit Card Outstanding 0.7 471 26.3 23.1 28.7 28.0 26.8 29.4 23.3

4.6 Education 1.1 713 4.9 4.8 5.3 6.0 6.0 6.5 8.2

4.7 Vehicle Loans 2.5 1,674 18.9 21.4 23.5 22.8 21.0 20.7 17.8

4.8 Other Personal Loans 4.8 3,194 12.9 17.3 20.4 27.6 27.0 27.9 23.4

Growth (yoy, %)



Chitra Katha

Bank credit: Loan growth in food processing, telecom, power and electronics sectors has been impacted



Share (%) (Rs. Bn)

Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Jul-16 Dec-15

2.1 Mining & Quarrying (incl. Coal) 1.3 342 -6.4 -3.0 -0.7 0.9 2.3 -1.4 -2.0

2.2 Food Processing 5.0 1,289 -13.4 -13.4 -9.4 -4.9 -9.2 -9.0 -2.2

2.2.1 Sugar 1.1 285 -18.5 -20.3 -18.5 -10.0 -3.8 -3.2 3.7

2.2.2 Edible Oils & Vanaspati 0.6 167 -13.6 -12.8 -9.8 -4.3 0.7 -1.5 -6.2

2.2.3 Tea 0.1 36 0.0 5.3 27.4 30.4 22.6 18.7 12.2

2.2.4 Others 3.1 801 -12.0 -11.6 -6.8 -4.3 -14.1 -13.5 -4.0

2.3 Beverage & Tobacco 0.7 171 -5.0 -8.5 -4.5 -2.7 -8.0 -3.0 -3.5

2.4 Textiles 7.2 1,866 -7.8 -5.4 -1.9 -0.4 -1.1 0.3 1.8

2.4.1 Cotton Textiles 3.5 897 -11.3 -8.2 -5.0 -2.7 -3.1 -1.1 3.1

2.4.2 Jute Textiles 0.1 20 -6.6 -4.6 -2.2 -0.3 -5.6 -7.9 -10.5

2.4.3 Man-Made Textiles 0.8 195 -6.6 -5.8 -4.3 -3.5 -6.4 -7.0 5.2

2.4.4 Other Textiles 2.9 753 -3.6 -1.7 2.6 3.3 3.0 4.3 -0.4

2.5 Leather & Leather Products 0.4 101 -2.0 -2.0 1.8 6.0 4.8 5.7 -1.1

2.6 Wood & Wood Products 0.4 99 -0.2 -0.2 3.6 2.8 2.3 5.7 2.8

2.7 Paper & Paper Products 1.3 339 -4.8 -3.4 -0.2 2.0 -1.4 0.2 4.9

2.8 Petroleum, Coal Products & Nuclear Fuels 1.9 490 2.8 10.5 7.2 20.0 11.4 18.9 -11.6

2.9 Chemicals & Chemical Products 5.6 1,444 -6.2 -2.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 1.4 3.1

2.9.1 Fertiliser 0.9 242 9.0 12.2 18.5 15.6 0.4 6.6 -8.1

2.9.2 Drugs & Pharmaceuticals 1.8 471 -8.5 -8.2 -6.7 -3.5 -4.0 0.8 6.8

2.9.3 Petro Chemicals 1.3 324 -5.3 10.5 5.4 8.2 7.0 2.8 3.9

2.9.4 Others 1.6 407 -11.8 -11.9 -9.1 -7.8 -2.8 -1.7 4.6

2.10 Rubber, Plastic & their Products 1.4 363 -2.9 -1.9 2.7 1.8 0.4 0.7 -1.6

2.11 Glass & Glassware 0.3 80 -9.3 -6.7 -1.4 2.7 -0.7 0.5 -0.7

2.12 Cement & Cement Products 2.1 531 -3.0 -4.2 -2.3 -0.4 -4.3 -3.3 -1.3

2.13 Basic Metal & Metal Product 16.0 4,127 3.0 3.0 4.5 6.8 7.7 8.2 8.7

2.13.1 Iron & Steel 12.1 3,118 4.5 4.1 5.7 7.1 8.4 8.8 9.3

2.13.2 Other Metal & Metal Product 3.9 1,009 -1.4 -0.3 1.2 5.8 5.5 6.5 6.9

2.14 All Engineering 5.7 1,470 -5.9 -4.9 -2.6 -1.0 -1.5 0.8 5.4

2.14.1 Electronics 1.3 341 -10.7 -11.0 -10.7 -6.2 -5.2 -2.2 8.4

2.14.2 Others 4.4 1,129 -4.3 -2.9 0.2 0.8 -0.3 1.8 4.5

2.15 Vehicles, Vehicle Parts & Transport Equipment 2.8 715 6.9 4.0 6.2 6.7 2.7 3.2 -1.8

2.16 Gems & Jewellery 2.7 686 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 0.6 -3.1 -1.4 0.1

2.17 Construction 3.1 791 6.6 3.9 4.9 7.8 4.1 4.0 0.5

2.18 Infrastructure 34.7 8,962 -7.7 -6.7 -6.6 -4.6 -4.2 -3.1 8.4

2.18.1 Power 20.5 5,278 -10.8 -10.4 -10.6 -8.7 -9.7 -8.7 10.1

2.18.2 Telecommunications 3.1 799 -12.9 -6.3 -9.3 -14.2 -4.3 -2.3 6.1

2.18.3 Roads 7.0 1,798 0.3 1.3 2.9 7.1 7.9 8.1 7.5

2.18.4 Other Infrastructure 4.2 1,087 0.6 -0.2 1.4 7.1 6.6 9.1 2.9

2.19 Other Industries 7.5 1,925 0.4 2.0 7.9 16.2 10.7 6.1 8.3

2 Total Industries 100.0 25,791 -4.3 -3.4 -1.7 0.9 -0.2 0.6 4.9

Growth (yoy, %)

Chitra Katha

Currency in circulation increases to

Rs.11.3tn as on 17-Feb’17


Reserve money growth up in Jun’16


M1 money supply growth


M2 money supply growth


M3 Money supply growth


Money multiplier picks up post Demon


Process of remonetization picks up pace: Currency in circulation reaches 63% of pre-demon level

12.1

-29.6

-26.9

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, y

oy

Reserve Money (M0)

11.6

-18.6

-13.7

-19-15-11-7-3159

131721

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, yo

y

M1 Money Supply

10.9

6.66.4

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, yo

y

M3 Money Supply

5.69

8.48 8.29

3.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

Money Multiplier

11.9

-17.6

-12.9

-19

-14

-9

-4

1

6

11

16

21

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

%, y

oy

M2 Money Supply


11.3

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-1

6

Jun

-16

Aug

-1

6

Oct-

16

Dec-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Chitra Katha

Trend in Exports & imports


Non-oil imports also falls


Trade deficit narrows to $9.8bn in Jan’17


Imports increase steeply Jan’17 while

exports show moderate growth


Non-oil non-gold imports remain muted in

Jan’17


Gold imports continue to remain at ~$2bn

per month mark after surging in Nov’16


Imports growth surpasses exports growth in Jan’17, led by higher oil imports due to surge in oil prices

Macro Indicators: External Sector

21.2

20.8

22.9

20.9

22.4

22.8

21.7

21.6

22.9

23.2

20.0 23.9

22.1

28.9

27.4

27.3

25.8 2

8.4 3

1.1

29.5

29.2 31.2 3

3.6

33.0

34.3

32.0

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

$, b

n

Exports ($, bn) Imports ($, bn)

5.1

4.8

4.8 5.7

6.0 7.3

6.8

6.8

6.9

7.1

6.8 7.6 8.1

23.8

22.6

22.5

20.1 22.4

23.8

22.7

22.4 24.3 26.5

26.2

26.6

23.8

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

$, bn

Oil Imports ($, bn) Non Oil Imports ($, bn)

-7.7 -6

.6 -4.4

-4.9

-6.0

-8.3

-7.8

-7.6

-8.3

-10.4

-13.0 -1

0.4

-9.8

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

$, bn

Trade Balance ($, bn)

-13.2

4.3

-10.5

10.7

-35-30-25-20-15-10-505

1015

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan

-17

Exports (%, yoy) Imports (%, yoy)

60.6

2.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-

15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-

16

Se

p-1

6

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Gold imports (volume, tonnes)

Gold imports (value, $bn)-RHS

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

15

20

25

30

35

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

Non-oil non-gold imports ($, bn)(Growth, %) - RHS

Chitra Katha

BoP: CAD widens to 0.6% of GDP but Capital a/c surplus also widens

...on account of higher FDI inflows during the quarter


Short term debt falls


($bn) Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16

CAD (I+II) = A -8.6 -7.1 -0.3 -0.3 -3.4

Merchandise balance (I) -37.2 -34.0 -24.8 -23.8 -25.6

Invisibles (i+ii+iii) = (II) 28.6 26.9 24.4 23.5 22.2

Software Exports (i) 18.1 18.6 17.3 17.6 17.7

Remittances (ii) 16.4 15.3 15.1 14.2 14.0

Others (iii) -5.9 -7.0 -8.1 -8.2 -9.6

Capital Account (a+b+c+d+e) = B 8.1 10.9 3.5 7.1 12.7

FDI inflows (a) 6.5 10.7 8.8 4.1 17.2

Portfolio flows (b) -3.4 0.6 -1.5 2.1 6.1

ECBs (c) -1.7 -0.9 -2.4 -2.1 -2.5

NRI Deposits (d) 4.2 1.6 4.4 1.4 2.1

Others (e) 2.5 -1.0 -5.8 1.6 -10.1

Errors and Omissions (C.) -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.7

Overall BoP (A+B+C) -0.9 4.1 3.3 7.0 8.5

CAD (% of GDP) -1.7 -1.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6

BoP: CAD expands to 0.6% of GDP but Capital a/c surplus also expands sharply...

($bn) Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16

Assets (A) 529.5 532.8 550.1 552.3 564.8

Liabilities (i+ii+iii+iv) = B 886.6 894.4 911.2 905.1 932.4

Direct Investment (i) 271.3 282.6 293.9 294.1 311.7

Equity Securities (ii) 143.6 141.7 141.9 141.5 148.1

Debt Securities (iii) 81.8 83.6 82.9 79.0 84.0

Other Investment (iv) 389.8 386.6 392.6 390.5 388.6

Currency & Deposits 122.0 122.8 127.1 126.5 130.2

Loans 171.7 170.8 170.5 170.3 167.0

Trade Credits 81.3 79.6 82.3 82.1 81.9

Other Liabilities 14.7 13.4 12.7 11.6 9.5

IIP: Net (A-B) -357.0 -361.7 -361.2 -352.8 -367.6

Assets to Liability Ratio (%) 59.7 59.6 60.4 61.0 60.6

India's International Investment Position (IIP)

83.6

81.2

16.8

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

60

70

80

90

100

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Mar-

14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Mar-

15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Short-term debt ($bn) Short-term (% of external debt) - RHS

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

FDI inflows ($ bn) Portfolio flows ($ bn)


Chitra Katha

Exchange rate: Rupee remains largely stable against major currencies with an appreciating bias

Rupee vs. US dollar


Rupee vs. Euro


Rupee vs. Pound


Rupee vs. Yen


Rupee vs. Yuan


Real effective exchange rate


60.34

67.81

50

55

60

65

70

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

INR/USD

101.45

84.85

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

INR/GBP

83.31

72.55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

INR/Euro

58.93

59.77

45

50

55

60

65

70

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

INR/100Yen

99.3

112.9

116.8

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jul-1

3

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Apr-

16

Jul-1

6

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

REER: 36 Currencies


9.70

9.88

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0A

pr-

14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

INR/Yuan

Chitra Katha

Fiscal deficit reaches 93.8% of the full year target in Apr-Dec FY17…

Macro Indicators: Fiscal situation

Govt expenditure in Apr-Dec FY17 increases 11.9% yoy, largely in

line with the budgeted growth for FY17

Direct tax collections growth 10.7% yoy in Apr-Dec FY17 lags budget

estimates, as corporate tax collections remain muted


Indirect tax collections increase 25% yoy in Apr-Dec’17, led by

higher excise and service tax collections…

Fiscal deficit reaches 93.8% of the full year target in Apr-Dec FY17,

while revenue deficit reaches 113.9% of FY17BE


65.9

72.3

73.4

91.6

94.0

69.1

54.5

73.0

93.8

113.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Net tax revenue Non-taxrevenue

Expenditure Fiscal deficit Revenue deficit

(% o

f fu

ll ye

ar

targ

et)

Apr-Dec FY16 Apr-Dec FY17

15.4

33.2

12.5

9.2

15.3

20.9

0.5

11.9

9.5

18.6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Net tax revenue

Non-tax revenue

Expenditure

Non-plan exp

Plan exp

Growth, %, yoy

Apr-Dec FY17 FY17BE

22.8

9.0

14.3

20.5

4.8

10.7

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

Personal income tax Corporate tax Direct taxes

(Gro

wth

, %

, yo

y)

FY17BE Apr-Dec FY173.2

34.5

17.1

20.0

4.9

43.7

25.0

25.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Custom duties Excise duties Service tax Indirect taxes

(Gro

wth

, %

, yo

y)

FY17BE Apr-Dec FY17

Chitra Katha Macro Indicators: Fiscal situation

Plan expenditure on Road and Highways


Plan expenditure on Rural development


Plan expenditure on Railways


Govt spending thrust continues to be on Roads, Rural and Urban development

Government’s clear focus is to push capex

Absolute (Rs. tn) Growth (%, yoy)

(%, yoy) FY17BE Apr-Dec FY17 FY16RE FY17BE Apr-Dec

FY17

Total Expenditure 19.8 14.7 7.3 10.8 11.9

- Non-plan 14.3 10.6 8.9 9.2 9.5

-- Non-plan revenue 13.3 9.9 9.3 9.5 10.3

-- Non-plan capital 1.0 0.7 4.2 5.4 -1.2

- Plan 5.5 4.1 3.1 15.3 18.6

-- Plan revenue 4.0 3.0 -6.3 20.5 30.5

-- Plan capital 1.5 1.1 35.4 2.9 -5.4

Trend in Expenditure during Apr-Dec FY17 Trend in Revenue during Apr-Dec FY17

Absolute (Rs tn) Growth (%)

FY17BE Apr- Dec

FY17 FY17BE

Apr- Dec

FY17

Total tax revenue 10.5 7.5 11.2 20.9

Direct tax 8.4 5.4 12.8 10.7

- Personal income tax 3.5 2.2 18.6 20.5

- Corporate tax 4.9 3.2 9.0 4.8

Indirect tax 7.8 5.8 10.8 25.0

- Custom duties 2.3 1.7 9.8 4.9

- Excise duties 3.2 2.5 12.2 43.7

- Service tax 2.3 1.6 10.0 25.0

Non-tax revenue 3.2 1.8 24.9 0.5

775

625 605

510 492

554 561

488

377

FY17FY16FY15FY14FY13FY12FY11FY10FY09

Ministry of Rural Development (Apr-Dec, Rs bn)

24% 489

364

251 209 205 186

136 122 111


Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (Apr-Dec, Rs bn)

34%

199

273

207 195

167

117 119 110

53


Ministry of Railways (Apr-Dec, Rs bn)

Chitra Katha

13

11

9 9 8

5

4 3

2 1 1 1

-7

5

1 2

5 5 3

2 0

1

-4

4

-2

-9 -10

-5

0

5

10

15

Turkey Brazil Hang Seng Nifty Sensex Taiwan Shangai Malaysia Indonesia South Africa Shenzen Thailand Russia

Change YTD % Change 1M %

…….Same is the case with most of the developed markets with US indices touching its life time highs

Source: Bloomberg, Spark Capital Research.

All Emerging markets (except Thailand and Russia) indices have seen rally since start of CY17…..


Indian market indices are up 5% in last 1 month

Macro Indicators: Market Performance

9

6 5

3 3

2 2 1

1

0 0

-3

3 3 4

0

0 0

1 0 0

-2

0

-3 -4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

NASDAQ S&P 500 Dow Jones US Korea Germany Canada UK Australia Euro Stoxx Japan France Spain


Chitra Katha

27 25

19

7 5 4

4 3 1

-1 -3 -3 -5

-15

-19

2 3 3 2 2

4

0

1 2 2

-1 0

0

-1

7

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Brazil Real Ruble S. Af Rand JPY AU $ Korean Won Indo Rup Thai Bhat Sing $ INR Euro MalayRinggit

Yuan GBP Turkish Lira


INR has been fairly stable so far while other emerging markets currencies such as BRL, RUB gained in CY17


Silver gained 15% in CY17 so far…..


All base metals are up since start of this year ….


Precious and Base metals posted one of highest returns so far…..


15

14 14

10 9

7 7

4 4

7

5

3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Silver ($/OZ) Palladium($/Oz)

Platinum($/Oz)

Silver (INR/kg) Gold ($/OZ) Gold(INR/10g)


15 13

11 10

7

1

-2 -2

-8

-18

8

-8

1 0

0

2 1

-1

-8 -3

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Ch

ina I

ron

ore

Lea

d

Alu

min

ium

Zin

c

Co

pp

er

Bre

nt

WT

I

AU

Coa

l

S.A

f C

oal

Indo

Co

al


Chitra Katha

BSE mid and small cap indices gained 18% post falling to lows of Dec post demonetisation


CY17 rally in all sectors negated the fall seen post demonetisation


Delivery volume increased to 44% in month of Feb 2017- Highest in last one year


2.2 3.4 3.2 5.3 5.1 4.7 3.5 4.7 3.2 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.5

4.8

4.3 4.2 3.9 4.5 4.9 3.8 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.6 4.5 4.4 4.8 5.4 5.3 4.5 5.4 3.8 4.7 4.6

45% 44%

39% 42%

36%

38% 39%

42% 43% 44%

43%

41% 40%

46%

42% 45% 41%

43% 44%

38%

39% 36%

39% 38%

37%

42% 37%

39%

38% 37% 38%

40%

39%

41% 41% 41%

44%

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

46%

48%

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Fe

b-1

4

Mar-

14

Ap

r-1

4

May-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Cash market Turnover (Rs. tn) Delivered volume % (RHS)

-17% -12% -12% -11% -10% -10% -9% -8% -8% -7% -7% -7% -6%

-3% -2% -2% 0%

20%

10%

18% 18% 15%

17% 15% 14%

22%

12% 8%

14% 12%

14%

8%

17%

6%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Realty Auto BSESmallcap

BSEMidcap

FMCG Banks BSE 500 BSE 200 Metals Nifty H. care Cap gds Sensex Power BSE TMTOil & Gas Tech

Demonetisation (08/11) to Dec lows (26/12) Dec Lows (26/12) to Now

Chitra Katha

MSCI Indices US$ performance – Brazil and China posted one of the best returns in US$ so far


15

12 11 10 10

8

6 6

3 2

(4)

3

5

7

5 4 4 3 3 2

0

(6)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

Brazil China India EM Asia APAC ex JP APAC US World Indonesia Europe Russia

Change YTD% Change 1M%

MSCI Indices: India’s Forward PB @ 2.6x


MSCI Indices: India’s Forward PE @ 17.1x


USA is the most expensive market followed by India in terms of PE and PB multiple

Macro Indicators: Market and Sector valuations

18.0 17.1 16.7

15.5 14.8

13.8 13.4 13.0 12.4 12.3

6.2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

US

Ind

ia

Worl

d

Ind

on

esia

Euro

pe

AP

AC

AP

xJ

Bra

zil

EM

Asia

Ch

ina

Ru

ssia

2.8 2.6

2.5

2.2

1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4

0.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

US

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Worl

d

Euro

pe

Bra

zil

AP

xJ

Ch

ina

EM

Asia

AP

AC

Ru

ssia

Chitra Katha

Stocks near 52 week high (BSE 200 subset)


Stock & Index 52 week H/L: Key trends

Stocks near 52 week low (BSE 200 subset)


Nifty stocks performance snapshot



0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

Vakrangee Soft.Jindal SteelJaiprakash

BioconRIL

Adani PowerPetronet

TVS MotorBajaj Finserv

Procter & GambleGAIL

L&T FinIB Hous. Fin

Tata SteelIGL

IndusIndHCL Tech

Supreme IndustriesYes

GMR InfraBharat Forge

Near 52 Week highs

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%

EmamiContainer Corp

CRISILDabur

Divi's LabsM&M

United Brew.Colgate

Torrent PjharmaLupin

InfosysGSKCH

HULAurobindo Ph.

SanofiAmara Raja

GSK PharmaDr. Reddy's

BhartiGillette

Near 52 Week lows

Name Sector Price Performance (%)

Current 52W high 52W low 1m 3M YTD

Idea Cellular Ltd Telecom 115 128 66 46.9 55.5 8.4

Reliance Industries Ltd Oil & Gas 1,239 1,257 926 20.9 24.7 30.4

Bharti Airtel Ltd Telecom 356 401 283 9.9 18.2 11.9

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd Cap gds 153 163 90 9.5 20.6 60.7

Grasim Industries Ltd Materials 1,018 1,077 651 9.4 23.7 54.3

HDFC Bank Ltd Banks 1,394 1,454 928 7.9 17.2 45.0

Axis Bank Ltd Banks 509 638 374 7.6 8.0 31.7

Infosys Ltd IT 1,012 1,279 900 7.5 3.6 (9.7)

Tech Mahindra Ltd IT 500 557 402 7.0 2.6 21.1

GAIL India Ltd Power 515 531 290 6.9 23.5 69.5

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd IT 2,490 2,745 2,052 5.6 8.2 12.6

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd Pharma 674 881 572 5.3 (5.6) (22.6)

IndusInd Bank Ltd Banks 1,319 1,366 802 5.3 22.9 61.6

Wipro Ltd IT 490 607 408 5.2 5.4 (7.7)

Coal India Ltd Energy 330 350 272 3.8 8.4 5.9

Eicher Motors Ltd Auto 24,337 26,641 17,895 3.6 20.3 28.9

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Auto 1,294 1,509 1,141 3.4 10.3 5.2

Asian Paints Ltd Materials 1,002 1,230 837 3.3 6.0 16.2

ITC Ltd FMCG 265 292 178 2.8 15.6 37.2

ICICI Bank Ltd Banks 279 298 182 2.5 7.2 50.9

Tata Steel Ltd Materials 481 496 245 2.4 17.6 93.4

Tata Power Co Ltd Power 83 86 56 2.1 18.1 43.7

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd Banks 801 836 586 2.0 6.4 30.0

Larsen & Toubro Ltd Cap gds 1,466 1,615 1,053 1.8 6.9 32.0

Yes Bank Ltd Banks 1,422 1,472 663 1.7 21.8 107.1

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd Media 504 590 364 1.4 14.6 32.2

UltraTech Cement Ltd Materials 3,737 4,130 2,690 1.4 6.9 34.9

Hindustan Unilever Ltd FMCG 866 954 782 1.2 3.9 1.9

Cipla Ltd/India Pharma 585 622 457 0.9 3.6 11.7

State Bank of India Banks 268 289 153 0.7 2.8 72.1

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd Auto 5,952 6,234 3,193 0.6 22.1 74.6

Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd Oil & Gas 708 735 370 0.4 10.7 85.1

Housing Development Finance Corp Financials 1,376 1,464 1,022 0.1 10.6 30.6

HCL Technologies Ltd IT 840 870 706 (0.5) 4.7 1.9

ACC Ltd Materials 1,418 1,738 1,173 (0.9) 8.3 19.0

Hero MotoCorp Ltd Auto 3,176 3,740 2,471 (1.2) 4.3 24.3

Ambuja Cements Ltd Materials 230 282 185 (1.2) 13.3 21.6

Lupin Ltd Pharma 1,464 1,875 1,280 (1.9) (3.0) (15.2)

Bank of Baroda Banks 164 192 127 (2.0) (2.1) 23.8

Bajaj Auto Ltd Auto 2,795 3,122 2,172 (2.1) 7.0 24.9

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Shipping 297 317 170 (2.4) 11.9 48.3

Bosch Ltd Auto 21,646 25,671 16,377 (3.6) 14.9 29.5

Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd Pharma 2,857 3,690 2,799 (4.6) (9.8) (4.6)

Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd Energy 195 212 126 (4.8) 5.3 35.2

Aurobindo Pharma Ltd Pharma 679 895 622 (4.8) (8.3) 10.3

Hindalco Industries Ltd Materials 181 200 67 (5.2) 0.1 160.3

Power Grid Corp of India Ltd Power 193 209 129 (5.8) 2.2 44.2

NTPC Ltd Power 165 178 118 (6.8) 2.4 36.1

Tata Motors Ltd Auto 458 599 290 (15.5) 1.2 51.7

Bharti Infratel Ltd Cap gds 288 414 283 (18.6) (19.0) (21.0)

Chitra Katha

…..this is after US$3.8bn FII selling in Nov-Dec 16

Source: Bloomberg

Foreign investment in Equity Instruments (net) Foreign investment in Debt Instruments (net)

US $mn 1QCY 2QCY 3QCY 4QCY Total US $mn 1QCY 2QCY 3QCY 4QCY Total

2017 1,284 na na na 1,284 2017 581 na na na 581

2016 1,214 1,742 4,554 -4,607 2,903 2016 -739 -1,186 2,185 -6,720 -6,459

2015 6,000 184 (2,576) (334) 3,274 2015 6,903 (461) (110) 1,229 7,560

2014 4,086 5,832 3,896 2,348 16,162 2014 6,160 4,252 9,329 6,511 26,252

2013 10,151 2,959 61 6,584 19,754 2013 2,294 (4,017) (4,750) (2,016) (8,489)

2012 8,866 -350 7,617 8,414 24,548 2012 3,941 229 897 1,795 6,862

2011 -657 1,151 -644 -362 -512 2011 2,424 600 1,174 4,348 8,546

2010 4,369 2,331 12,554 10,067 29,321 2010 4,103 1,371 3,733 843 10,050

2009 -1,345 6,421 7,369 5,194 17,639 2009 (1,306) 145 928 1,393 1,160

2008 -3,551 -3,322 -2,710 -3,335 -12,918 2008 907 (655) 1,787 665 2,705

2007 1,534 4,207 7,462 5,315 18,518 2007 139 377 515 1,395 2,425

2006 3,930 -1,381 2,678 3,110 8,338 2006 (300) 296 360 526 883

2005 3,801 891 3,864 2,345 10,901 2005 113 (261) (186) (903) (1,236)

2004 3,198 305 1,471 3,653 8,627 2004 354 (409) (85) 831 692

2003 361 933 1,824 3,585 6,702 2003 168 677 68 96 1,008

2002 583 -91 181 65 738 2002 126 (113) (56) 54 10


FII’s bought US$1.3 in Indian equities in CY17 so far….

Macro Indicators: Fund flows

1.9 1.1 0.9 0.1

2.3 (0.1) 2.9 1.4 1.7 1.2

(0.1)

(1.0)

0.9

(2.6) (0.9)

0.8 (1.1)

0.0

(1.7)

(1.2)

4.1

0.6

0.4 0.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 (0.7) (2.6) (1.2)

(0.0) 1.3

3.8 2.8 2.7

2.8

1.9

1.8

3.7

2.2 1.0 0.5

(1.3)

0.3 (0.1)

(0.1)

0.0 2.4

(0.6)

(0.6)

0.2

(1.2)

0.2

0.5

(0.8) (1.0)

1.0

(0.4)

1.6

(1.1)

(2.9) (2.8)

(0.4)

1.0

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

FII Investments in Debt ($bn) FII Investments in Equity ($bn)

Chitra Katha

DII bought US$5bn since demonetization and supported markets amid FII selling in Nov and Dec

Source: Bloomberg, Spark capital research

DII’s have invested US$7bn and US$40bn in Indian Equities and Debt respectively so far in CY17

Domestic mutual funds net debt investment (US$bn)


Domestic mutual funds net equity investment -US$ 7bn on YTD basis


Macro Indicators: Fund flows

-0.5

0.4

-0.2

0.7

-1.2

0.9

-1.3

0.4 0.0

1.8 1.3

1.9

0.1

2.5

1.6

-0.2

1.2

0.9 1.9 1.5

-2.4

-0.4

1.1

-0.3 -0.9

-0.7

0.3 1.2

2.7

1.3

0.7

0.1

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

DII Investment in Equity ($bn)

5 4 8 12

18 18

38

55

84 86 90

96

57

40

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

YT

D

0 0

3

2

4

2

(2)

(4)

(0)

(4) (4)

7

10

7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

YT

D

STRATEGY Chitra Katha

India market cap to GDP is still hovering around 10 year avg whereas Midcaps valuations are approaching its peak

Sensex 12 month forward PE is trading at around 10Y average

Source: Bloomberg

Nifty 12 month forward PE is hovering around +1sd

Source: Bloomberg

India market cap to GDP below its average since 2006- 65% (Current)


BSE Mid caps 12 month forward PE is trading above +1sd



15.1

17.2

13.1

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

De

c-0

5

Jul-

06

Fe

b-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

No

v-0

8

Jun

-09

Jan

-10

Au

g-1

0

Mar-

11

Oct-

11

May-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jul-

13

Fe

b-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jun

-16

Jan

-17

Sensex PE Avg +1sd -1sd Price (Index)

14.7

16.6

12.8

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

De

c-0

5

Jul-

06

Fe

b-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

No

v-0

8

Jun

-09

Jan

-10

Au

g-1

0

Mar-

11

Oct-

11

May-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jul-

13

Fe

b-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jun

-16

Jan

-17

Nifty PE Avg +1sd -1sd Price (Index)

12.9

16.2

9.5

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Dec-0

5

Jul-

06

Feb-0

7

Sep

-07

Ap

r-08

No

v-0

8

Jun

-09

Jan

-10

Aug

-10

Mar-

11

Oct-

11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-

13

Feb-1

4

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

No

v-1

5

Jun

-16

Jan

-17

BSE Midcaps PE Avg +1sd -1sd

88

147

49

98

59 49

81

64

70

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

India Mkt cap to GDP Avg


Nifty Expected average return chart based on 12 month forward PE


15.9

9.1 7.1

1.7

(4.1)

33.5

21.0

7.7 5.7

(8.3)(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

<13x 13x -14x 14x -15.5x 15.5x -16.5x >16.5x

6M forward return 12M forward return Hit rate

Sensex 12 month forward PB trades at last 10 years average of 2.6x

Source: Bloomberg

Nifty 12 month forward PB is trading around average levels

Source: Bloomberg

Nifty delivered 8% average annual return when trading in current range of valuations historically

Sensex 12 month forward implied ROE is below average levels



2.6

3.1

2.1

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan

-06

May-0

6S

ep

-06

Jan

-07

May-0

7S

ep

-07

Jan

-08

May-0

8S

ep

-08

Jan

-09

May-0

9S

ep

-09

Jan

-10

May-1

0S

ep

-10

Jan

-11

May-1

1S

ep

-11

Jan

-12

May-1

2S

ep

-12

Jan

-13

May-1

3S

ep

-13

Jan

-14

May-1

4S

ep

-14

Jan

-15

May-1

5S

ep

-15

Jan

-16

May-1

6S

ep

-16

Jan

-17

Sensex PB Avg +1sd -1sd

2.5

3.0

2.1

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan

-05

May-0

5S

ep

-05

Jan

-06

May-0

6S

ep

-06

Jan

-07

May-0

7S

ep

-07

Jan

-08

May-0

8S

ep

-08

Jan

-09

May-0

9S

ep

-09

Jan

-10

May-1

0S

ep

-10

Jan

-11

May-1

1S

ep

-11

Jan

-12

May-1

2S

ep

-12

Jan

-13

May-1

3S

ep

-13

Jan

-14

May-1

4S

ep

-14

Jan

-15

May-1

5S

ep

-15

Jan

-16

May-1

6S

ep

-16

Jan

-17

Nifty PB Avg +1sd -1sd

17.2

19.0

15.3

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

Jan

-05

May-0

5S

ep

-05

Jan

-06

May-0

6S

ep

-06

Jan

-07

May-0

7S

ep

-07

Jan

-08

May-0

8S

ep

-08

Jan

-09

May-0

9S

ep

-09

Jan

-10

May-1

0S

ep

-10

Jan

-11

May-1

1S

ep

-11

Jan

-12

May-1

2S

ep

-12

Jan

-13

May-1

3S

ep

-13

Jan

-14

May-1

4S

ep

-14

Jan

-15

May-1

5S

ep

-15

Jan

-16

May-1

6S

ep

-16

Jan

-17

Sensex ROE Avg +1sd -1sd


BSE Bankex index saw sharp rerating in last 3 months

BSE Auto- 12 month forward PE trend

Source: Bloomberg

BSE Bankex- 12 month forward PB trend

Source: Bloomberg

BSE Cap gds- 12 month forward PE trend

Source: Bloomberg

BSE Cons durable: 12 month forward PE

Source: Bloomberg

BSE FMCG- 12 month forward PE trend

Source: Bloomberg

BSE Healthcare-12 month forward PE trend

Source: Bloomberg


13.0

16.1

9.9

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

Dec-0

5

Jul-

06

Feb-0

7

Sep

-07

Ap

r-08

No

v-0

8

Jun

-09

Jan

-10

Aug

-10

Mar-

11

Oct-

11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-

13

Feb-1

4

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

No

v-1

5

Jun

-16

Jan

-17

Auto PE(x) Avg

+1sd -1sd

2.0

1.9

2.2

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

Dec-0

5

Jul-

06

Feb-0

7

Sep

-07

Ap

r-08

No

v-0

8

Jun

-09

Jan

-10

Aug

-10

Mar-

11

Oct-

11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-

13

Feb-1

4

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

No

v-1

5

Jun

-16

Jan

-17

Bankex PB Avg

+1sd -1sd

22.7 20.5

25.9

15.0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Dec-0

5

Jul-

06

Feb-0

7

Sep

-07

Ap

r-08

No

v-0

8

Jun

-09

Jan

-10

Aug

-10

Mar-

11

Oct-

11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-

13

Feb-1

4

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

No

v-1

5

Jun

-16

Jan

-17

Cap gds PE(x) Avg

+1sd -1sd

22.5

30.0

15.1

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Dec-0

5

Jul-

06

Feb-0

7

Sep

-07

Ap

r-08

No

v-0

8

Jun

-09

Jan

-10

Aug

-10

Mar-

11

Oct-

11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-

13

Feb-1

4

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

No

v-1

5

Jun

-16

Jan

-17

Cons durables PE(x)Avg+1sd-1sd

24.9

29.0

20.8

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

Dec-0

5

Jul-

06

Feb-0

7

Sep

-07

Ap

r-08

No

v-0

8

Jun

-09

Jan

-10

Aug

-10

Mar-

11

Oct-

11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-

13

Feb-1

4

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

No

v-1

5

Jun

-16

Jan

-17

FMCG PE(x) Avg

+1sd -1sd

19.7

23.2

16.3

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

Dec-0

5

Jul-

06

Feb-0

7

Sep

-07

Ap

r-08

No

v-0

8

Jun

-09

Jan

-10

Aug

-10

Mar-

11

Oct-

11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-

13

Feb-1

4

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

No

v-1

5

Jun

-16

Jan

-17

Healthcare PE(x) Avg

+1sd -1sd


BSE IT- 12 month forward PE trend

Source: Bloomberg

BSE IT trades at below its 10 year average due to muted US$ dollar revenue growth

BSE Oil & Gas- 12 month forward PE trend

Source: Bloomberg

BSE Power- 12 month forward PE trend

Source: Bloomberg

BSE Realty- 12 month forward PE trend

Source: Bloomberg

BSE PSU- 12 month forward PE trend

Source: Bloomberg


15.0

17.5

20.9

14.2

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Dec

-05

Jul-

06

Feb

-07

Sep

-07

Ap

r-08

No

v-08

Jun

-09

Jan

-10

Aug

-10

Mar

-11

Oct

-11

May

-12

Dec

-12

Jul-

13

Feb

-14

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

No

v-15

Jun

-16

Jan

-17

IT Avg +1sd -1sd

11.5

13.7

9.3

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Dec

-05

Jul-0

6

Feb-

07

Sep-

07

Apr-

08

Nov

-08

Jun-

09

Jan-

10

Aug-

10

Mar

-11

Oct

-11

May

-12

Dec

-12

Jul-1

3

Feb-

14

Sep-

14

Apr-

15

Nov

-15

Jun-

16

Jan-

17

Oil & Gas PE(x) Avg

+1sd -1sd

14.3 15.5

20.2

10.8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

Power PE(x) Avg +1sd -1sd

18.3

13.1

17.4

8.8

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

Realty PE(x) Avg +1sd -1sd

11.8

10.1

11.6

8.6

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Jan

-10

May-1

0

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May-1

1

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May-1

2

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May-1

3

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May-1

4

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May-1

5

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May-1

6

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

PSU PE(x) Avg+1sd -1sd

Chitra Katha

Name Sector 3QFY17 2QFY17 1QFY17 4QFY16 3QFY16 2QFY16 1QFY16 4QFY15

Beat % 28% 42% 40% 42% 30% 30% 34% 28%

Inline% 30% 24% 36% 28% 34% 38% 38% 30%

Miss% 42% 34% 24% 30% 36% 32% 28% 42%

Maruti Suzuki India Auto Inline Beat Beat Miss Miss Inline Inline Beat

Eicher Motors Auto Inline Miss Beat Inline Beat Beat Beat Beat

UltraTech Cement Cement Beat Beat Beat Beat Beat Miss Beat Inline

Ambuja Cements Cement Miss Beat Beat Beat Miss Miss Miss Inline

ACC Cement Miss Miss Inline Beat Miss Miss Miss Beat

HDFC Bank Financials Inline Inline Inline Inline Inline Inline Inline Inline

HDFC Financials Inline Inline Inline Beat Inline Inline Inline Inline

ICICI Bank Financials Beat Beat Miss Miss Inline Inline Inline Inline

Axis Bank Financials Miss Miss Miss Miss Inline Inline Inline Inline

IndusInd Bank Financials Inline Inline Inline Inline Inline Inline Inline Inline

Yes Bank Financials Beat Inline Inline Beat Beat Beat Inline Inline

Adani Ports & SEZ Infra Miss Beat Beat Beat Beat Inline Inline Beat

Tata Consultancy Services IT Inline Miss Inline Inline Inline Inline Inline Miss

Infosys IT Inline Inline Miss Inline Inline Inline Inline Beat

Wipro IT Miss Inline Miss Miss Inline Inline Inline Inline

HCL Technologies IT Beat Beat Beat Beat Beat Inline Inline Miss

Reliance Industries O&G Inline Beat Beat Inline Inline Beat Inline Beat

Bharti Airtel Telecom Miss Beat Beat Beat Miss Beat Beat Miss

Bharti Infratel Telecom Miss Beat Inline Beat Inline Inline Inline Inline

Idea Cellular Telecom Miss Miss Miss Beat Inline Inline Inline Beat

Bank Of Baroda Financials Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Beat Miss

Gail India O&G Inline Inline Beat Beat Beat Miss Miss Miss

Itc Consumption Beat Miss Inline Inline Miss Miss Miss Miss

Mahindra & Mahindra Auto Beat Beat Beat Miss Miss Inline Beat Beat

State Bank Of India Financials Beat Inline Inline Miss Miss Beat Beat Beat

Hindalco Industries Metals & Mining Miss Beat Beat Beat Beat Beat Miss Miss

Tata Steel Metals & Mining Beat Miss Beat Miss Miss Beat Beat Miss

Sun Pharmaceutical Pharma Miss Beat Beat Miss Beat Miss Miss Miss

Zee Media Miss Miss Beat Inline Miss Inline Beat Beat

BPCL O&G Inline Miss Beat Beat Beat Inline Beat Beat

Cipla Pharma Inline Miss Inline Miss Miss Miss Beat Miss

Asian Paints Consumption Inline Miss Beat Miss Inline Miss Beat Miss

Tata Power Co Power Miss Beat Miss Miss Miss Inline Beat Inline

ONGC O&G Miss Beat Beat Beat Miss Beat Miss Miss

Dr. Reddy'S Pharma Beat Miss Miss Miss Miss Beat Beat Miss

Hero Motocorp Auto Beat Beat Inline Inline Inline Beat Beat Miss

Hindustan Unilever Consumption Miss Inline Miss Beat Miss Miss Miss Beat

Lupin Pharma Inline Miss Inline Beat Inline Miss Miss Miss

Kotak Mahindra Bank Financials Beat Beat Inline Inline Inline Inline Miss Beat

Larsen & Toubro Cap goods Miss Beat Miss Beat Miss Beat Miss Inline

Ntpc Power Inline Beat Inline Beat Beat Beat Inline Beat

Bharat Heavy Electricals Cap goods Beat Beat Beat Inline Miss Miss Miss Inline

Power Grid Corp Of India Power Inline Inline Beat Miss Beat Inline Inline Inline

Coal India Metals & Mining Miss Miss Miss Miss Beat Miss Miss Miss

Tata Motors Auto Miss Miss Miss Beat Beat Miss Miss Miss

Tech Mahindra IT Beat Miss Inline Beat Inline Beat Beat Miss

Bajaj Auto Auto Beat Beat Inline Inline Beat Beat Beat Miss

Aurobindo Pharma Pharma Miss Inline Inline Inline Inline Miss Inline Miss

Grasim Industries Cement Miss Inline Beat Beat Beat Beat Inline Miss

Bosch Auto Miss Beat Inline Inline Miss Miss Beat Inline

Historic Beat Misses of NIFTY

Chitra Katha

Quarterly Sales growth

Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates, Spark Capital Research

Quarterly EBITDA margins


Quarterly PAT growth


Growth for Nifty constituents


10%

1%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Nifty PAT growth % Nifty ex Financial ex O&G PAT growth %

20.5%

20.3%

21.0%

20.7%

20.8%

20.4% 20.0%

19.1%

21.4%

19.5%

19.9%

21.8%

22.2%

20.7%

17.5%

18.0%

18.5%

19.0%

19.5%

20.0%

20.5%

21.0%

21.5%

22.0%

22.5%

Nifty ex Financial ex O&G EBITDA margins %

6%

13%

17%

13%

16%

9%

6%

1% 0%

4% 3%

8% 7%

4%

2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Nifty ex Financial ex O&G sales growth %

8%

10%

15%

3%

6% 6%

19% 18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Nifty earnings growth %

Nifty Index FY18E-19E PAT CAGR stands at 18% as per consensus

NIFTY50 Growth Ahead

Chitra Katha Fundamentals Data

BSE 200- Employee cost in upward trend since FY12

Note: Universe excluding financials and O&G. Source: Bloomberg

BSE 200 - EBIT interest cover at its trough levels


BSE 200 - Inventory and Receivables as % of sales


BSE 200 - Capex to sales have been flat due to muted private capex cycle


EBIT interest cover at its lowest due to increased capital cost and muted earnings

9.0

10.4 10.3

11.1 11.0

11.7 12.0

11.8 11.6 11.5

12.2

13.0 13.3

12.9

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

3.8

5.2

8.4

9.8

8.6

6.3

5.3 5.5

6.5

5.5

4.4 4.0 3.8

3.4

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

13.4

13.0 12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

Receivables as % of sales Inventory as % of sales

8.1 8.4 9.4 10.5

14.5

16.5

14.5 13.7

15.1

13.3 12.4

11.0

8.7 8.7

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

Chitra Katha

Spark Disclaimer

Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited (Spark Capital) and its affiliates are engaged in investment banking, investment advisory and institutional equities and

infrastructure advisory services. Spark Capital is registered with SEBI as a Stock Broker and Category 1 Merchant Banker.

We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom we are registered in the last five years. We

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Spark Capital has a subsidiary Spark Investment Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the services of providing investment advisory services and is registered

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This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction.

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This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through an independent analysis by Spark

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Absolute

Rating

Interpretation

BUY Stock expected to provide positive returns of >15% over a 1-year horizon REDUCE Stock expected to provide returns of <5% – -10% over a 1-year

horizon

ADD Stock expected to provide positive returns of >5% – <15% over a 1-year

horizon SELL Stock expected to fall >10% over a 1-year horizon

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Spark Capital and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency,

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Disclosure of interest statement Yes/No

Analyst financial interest in the company No

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products or services other than those above

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