India-China Relations: The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala (2010)
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Transcript of India-China Relations: The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala (2010)
The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala
Nitin Pai
Xuanzang in India 629-645
High Tide
649 AD
The Year China first Invaded India
648 : Wang Xuance’s embassy to India
1200 Tibetan warriors7000 Nepali horsemen
3000 Indians killed10,000 thrown into river
‘Thereupon, India was overawed.’ Standard Tang History
The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala
Under the new Himalayas
The New Raja Mandala
power projection
markets & maritime
new spaces
human security
Policy implications
Outline
Big differences at a fundamental level
Why might this have happened?
World: Political World: Political
Wang framework
Ba framework
The Middle KingdomMindset
From the earliest times, India lacked interest in the balance of power outside its own national frontiers. While China was continuously watchful of developments across its land frontiers and had developed a very efficient system of diplomatic relationship on a continental basis, the Indian idea of diplomacy was confined to states within the geographical limits of India
K M Panikkar
Harsha’s death
Succession struggle
Buddhists v Brahmins
Politics in Northern India
645 AD
Songsten Gyampo & Tang Taizong enter into an alliance (641-645)
648 : Wang Xuance’s embassy to India
1200 Tibetan warriors7000 Nepali horsemen
3000 Indians killed10,000 thrown into river
This was a rare event
The HimalayanBarrier
20th century breaches the barrier
Large scale troop movements by land and air become feasible
1940s 1970s
Old barrier comes down
New barrier goes up
1960s
Clash
The 20th Century
“War is the failure of strategy”
Conventional deterrence
Nuclear deterrence
Risks of a India-US alliance
Risks to its economic growth
Kautilyan dynamic is still at work, butChina is unlikely to want a border war
Corollary?
The game is now globalThe New Raja Mandala
Under the new Himalayas
The New Raja Mandala
power projection
markets & maritime
new spaces
human security
Policy implications
Outline
Dependence on fuel imports
Fuel supply cartelised (OPEC, NSG etc)
So, diversification, diversification, diversification
Energy conundrum
Net Oil Import Dependence
World Energy Outlook 2009
67%
83%
100%
1981-82 1983-84 1985-86 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06
Exports by Sea Imports by Sea Seaborne trade as % of total trade
Most of India’s trade is seaborne
Data: Indicus Analytics Markets & Maritime go together
Wishfulness Strategy
Iran-Pakistan-Indiagas pipeline
Energy Security: Infrastructure & Markets
Singapore & Indonesia will be adversely affected
India will sit astride the new route but increased presence of foreign navies
An old idea: China’s turn
China’s trade from Europe, Africa and Middle East could bypass India
Possibility that it will be available for shipping for several weeks a year
Improves China’s access, but under Russian influence
The Northern Sea Route
Under the new Himalayas
The New Raja Mandala
power projection
markets & maritime
new spaces
human security
Policy implications
Outline
Absence Projection
Sep 2007 Oct 2008
Absence Projection
Balance of Power in SE
Asia
Balance of Power in NE
Africa
Post-tsunami credibilitydiluted
India is a credible player
China’s bandwagon strengthens
China wants to get in
Under the new Himalayas
The New Raja Mandala
power projection
markets & maritime
arms & trade
human security
Policy implications
Outline
Human security ‘Unconventional’ transnational security threats
Plausible scenarios
Natural Disasters
Pandemics
Mass political violence/genocide
Migration dynamics & global interests introduce political imperative to intervene
heavily populated parts of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Pakistan (as indeed,
several parts of India).
Extreme weather. In addition, climate change risks worsening the impact of natural
disasters like cyclones, floods and droughts that affect the subcontinent. This could
take several forms: increasing the intensity of cyclones or floods, changing the
geographical area where these occur, occurring at increased frequencies and , in
general, complicating adaptation efforts. For instance, a cyclone of record strength
striking a river delta that is itself deluged as a result of glacial recession would
transform the disaster into a much more complicated one.
Changing the dynamics of conflicts
Global climate change, by its very nature, is a trans-national phenomenon. While
its impacts will not respect political frontiers, the sources of climate-related problems
and the those at risk from them might well be on different sides of national
boundaries. This situation is further complicated when the boundaries themselves
are unclear, contested or both. As states react to climate change issues in line with
their self-interests, asymmetries in risk perceptions and the existence of unresolved
inter-state disputes are likely to complicate ongoing conflicts. The following table
interposes the impact mechanisms of climate change against the ongoing conflict
dynamics in South Asia.
Conflict system/
Impact
mechanism
Glacial
recession
Rising sea
levels
Extreme
weather
Net assessment
Jammu & Kashmir High - Medium Risk of war, motivated in part by the quest
for water resources
India-China border High - Medium Risk of natural disasters in India, worsening
India-China relations
Bangladesh !ethnic
invasion"
High High High Risk of mass migration into India
Pakistani
separatism
High Medium Medium Risk of existential crisis in Pakistan, and of
ethnic conflict
Sri Lankan civil war - High Medium Risk of mass migration, and of ethnic conflict
Nepal civil war High - High Risk of natural disasters and mass migration
into India due to social unrest
Table 1: Impact of climate change on ongoing conflicts in the Indian subcontinent
Climate change and national security
3 No 1 April 2008
Climate change can exacerbate conflict systems
What it means for military preparedness?
Expeditionary capability
Strategic partnerships
Military co-operation capital
Interoperability
India must remain a credible provider of human security across its shores
Under the new Himalayas
The New Raja Mandala
power projection
markets & maritime
new spaces
human security
Policy implications
Outline
New spaces Dealing with the asymmetric
China’s asymmetric strategy
Why PLAN has a submarine focused strategy?
Why did China shoot down one of its own satellites?
Google pulls out of China
Why is China selling nuclear reactors to Pakistan?
These capabilities can be used to target India too
Under the new Himalayas
The New Raja Mandala
power projection
markets & maritime
new spaces
human security
Policy implications
Outline
Broadly...
The New Himalayas must be high
Relative power dynamic suggests India must act as a geopolitical swing power
India
China US
2004
2009
balance
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Power Projection
Pax Indica in the immediate maritime neighbourhood
Deep partnerships in the extended maritime domain(footholds, forward bases, supply depots)
Economic security
Promotion of unhindered access to international markets: for fuel, goods & services
An open but cautious approach towards IT imports from China is warranted: regulators need help from IT industry
Military capacity
Heavy lift over long distances
Amphibious capacity /CIMPCOR
Policy review on overseas military deployments
A foreign policy orchestra
Policy coordination: External Affairs + Finance + Commerce + Defence Ministry- eg Can India use G-20 to its advantage?
Role of civil society - not just to influence govt, but to act on its own- eg Why are we unconcerned about Balochistan?
Lastly, Why isn’t there a Channel !ndia?
Think about it Thank you