India and its Neighbours

Alok BansalDirector

Centre for Security & StrategyIndia Foundation

HDI Index• Country Index Rank• Afghanistan 0.392 172• Bangladesh 0.558 142• Bhutan 0.584 136• China 0.719 91• India 0.586 135• Maldives 0.698 103• Myanmar 0.524 150• Nepal 0.540 145• Pakistan 0.537 146• Sri Lanka 0.750 73

China• Resurgence of Nationalism

– Chinese Nationalism has overtaken Communism as guiding principle

– Was easier for Mao’s China to make territorial concessions• A Revisionist Power

– Not happy with present status in comity of nations– Wants to avenge injustices of the past– Suffers from a persecution complex

• Vulnerabilities– Despite being 2nd Largest Economy & a military power,

technologically still far behind the West– Psychologically, scared of militarised Japan– Maritime Vulnerabilities– Paranoid about Islamic Radicalism – Kunming Attacks– Political Reforms

Chinese Perceptions of India• Does not want India to become ally of the US• Wants India to remain tied down within South Asia• Feels India has a strong leverage in Tibet• Views India as a huge market• Realises its shipping is vulnerable in Indian Ocean• Skeptical of India’s prospects of emerging as a big

power• Boundary Dispute unlikely to be resolved• Will avoid confrontation with India in near future• Will react strongly, if India joins multilateral

security arrangements perceived to be anti-China

MYANMAR

Area 676578 km2

Population

51,419,420 (2014 census)

Population Density (per km2)

75.97

GDP (Nominal in $) 2013E

56.759 Bn, 1113 (per capita)

GDP( PPP in $) 2012 E

221. 479 Bn, 4344 (per capita)Ethnic Groups Burman 68%

Shan 9%Karen 7%Rakhine 3.5%Chinese 2.5%Mon 2%Kachin 1.5%Indian 1.3%Chin 1%Other 5.8%

Religion Buddhist 80%Christians 7%, Muslims 4% Hindus 2% Others 7%

MYANMAR• Govt has shown remarkable flexibility after 2010 General

Elections• Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters won a landslide in

2012 by elections and are expected to do well in next elections

• Govt has tried to distance itself from China• West has started engaging Myanmar in a big way• Ethnic Conflicts still going on with Kachins, Shans, Lahu and

Karens• Rohingyas in Rakhine State• Military all powerful, Reforms still reversible • Communal Violence• Relations with India???

Area

17%

1% 3% 12%

0%

1%

3%

63%

India

Maldives

Sri Lanka

Nepal

Pakistan

Bhutan

Bangla Desh

Afghanistan

Population11%

0% 10% 2%

0%

2%

1%

74%

India

Maldives

Sri Lanka

Nepal

Pakistan

Bhutan

Bangla Desh

Afghanistan

GDP

0%2% 1%

11% 0% 5%1%

80%IndiaMaldivesSri LankaNepalPakistanBhutanBangla DeshAfghanistan

AFGHANISTAN

Area

652864 km2

Population

31,822,848 (2014 est)

Population Density

( per km2 )

48.7

GDP (nominal)

$ 21.747 Bn (2014 est)

per capita

$695 (2014)

GDP (PPP)

$ 36.838 Bn (2014 est)

per capita

$ 1177 (2014)

3

Security Challenges in Afghanistan• 9,800 American & 2,000 NATO troops to remain in

Afghanistan after 31 Dec• Taliban is psychologically on the ascendance. • Pakistan wants to have Taliban as a component of the

Government in Kabul• ANA has emerged as a credible force, but still the

desertion rates are fairly high• ANA lacks Air Force and credible artillery• It will be a challenge to garner adequate funds to sustain

the current strength of ANSF• Ethnic faultlines are still acute• Sectarian faultlines are growing• Presidential Election did not bolster public confidence

Prognosis• Al Qaeda will not let Taliban come to a negotiated

settlement• Taliban has started distancing itself from ISI• The conduct of future Elections essential for

consolidating democracy• Future of Afghanistan dependent on developments

in Pakistan• ANA looking at India to provide necessary

wherewithal• Developments in Afghanistan likely to have an

impact on India

BANGLADESHArea 147,570 km2

Population

156,594,962 (Mar 2013 est)Population Density( per km2 ) 1033.5GDP (nominal) 2013 (est) $161.76 Bn, $ 1033 (per capita)GDP( PPP) 2013 (est) $ 496 Bn, $ 3167 (per capita)

Bangladesh

5.9 5.34.4

5.36.3 6 6.7

6

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

GDP Growth Rate

Bangladesh• Trial of 1971 collaborators – Hanging of Abdul Qadir

Mollah. Islamic forces fighting for survival• Elections were not credible• After initial protests, opposition has lost steam. BNP

facing crisis of credibility• AL govt focussing on governance & succeeding• Conflict in CHT has abated but simmering• Rohingyas migration and Tension with Myanmar being

resolved• Fresh elections likely in near future• Economic & social indicators point to a bright future

BHUTAN

Area 38,394 km2

Population 742,737 (2012

estimated)

Population Density

( per km2 ) 18

GDP (nominal) 2011 in US $ 1.488 Bn, 2121 (per capita)

GDP( PPP) in US $

4.287 Bn, 6112 (per capita)

GDP Growth Rate

Bhutan

5.67.5

8.97.1 7.5

6.1

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

• Lhotsampas Migration and Conflict with State

• Border Dispute with China• Environmental Issues

Bhutan

MALDIVESArea 298 km2

Population393,500 ( Jul 2013 est)Population Density1102.5 (per km2 ) GDP (nominal) in US $ $1.944 Bn, (2011) 5973 (per capita)GDP( PPP) in US $$2.841 Bn, (2011) 8731 (per capita)

Maldives

4.8 3.56.5

8.5 9.5

18.7

6

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

-5.2

GDP Growth Rate

MALDIVES

• Yameen’s election as President has ushered in stability• The Presidential polls have pointed towards a divided polity• Majlis Elections have pointed towards a politicised judiciary

and judicial reforms are a must for institutional coherence• Dissensions within the ranks of MNDF & police• After the election set back, the relations between India and

Maldives have been improving• Maritime Piracy• Radicalisation of Society and the role of Islam• Security of Maritime Zones

NEPALArea 147181 km2

Population26,494,504 (2011 census)Population Density180 ( per km2 ) GDP (Nominal) in $19.921 Bn, 743 (per capita) 2012 EstimateGDP( PPP) in $62.384 Bn, 2310 (per capita) 2013 Estimate

Nepal

64.8

3 3.52.3 2.3

4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

-

GDP Growth Rate

NEPAL

• Successive Govts failed to build consensus• Integration of Maoist combatants completed 1460

inducted in the Army. 15610 took Voluntary Retirement• Constitution making remains a problem• Federalism a critical issue• Elections to Constituent Assembly after repeated

postponement brought NC as largest party• Maoists and Madhesis marginalised• Refugees from Bhutan• Border Dispute• Tibetan Refugees

PAKISTANArea 796095 km2

Population196,174,380 (2014 E)Population Density234.4 ( per km2 ) GDP(Nominal in $) 2014 E 243.818Bn, 1307 (per capita)GDP( PPP in $) 2013 est565 Bn, 3034 (per capita)

Pakistan

3.9

23.1

4.7

7.58.6

6.6 7

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

GDP Growth Rate

PAKISTAN

• Elections strengthened Democracy, but demonstrations by Imran & Qadri have weakened it

• Long periods of Military Rule have eroded most institutions. Civil –military dissonance

• Faces serious challenge from radical Islamists• Faces an impending Economic Crisis• Grappling with problems of Nation Building• For the first time there is a conflict between the

Islamists and Army• Operation continues in North Waziristan against TTP

PAKISTAN• Growing Talibanisation• Baloch Insurgency• Sindhi Alienation• Violence in Karachi• Sectarian Polarisation• Economic Crisis• Kashmir• Tensions with India• Tension with Afghanistan

SRI LANKA

Area

65610 km2

Population

20,277,597 (2012 census)

Population Density (per km2)

323

GDP (Nominal in $) 2014 E

70. 966 Bn, 3385 (per capita)

GDP( PPP in $) 2014 E

142.719 Bn, 7046 (per capita)

SriLanka

6

4

6 5.4

8

6.1 5.8

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

-

GDP Growth Rate

SRI LANKA• Govt has not shown desire for political accommodation after

military victory• Tamil grievances not addressed. Resurgence of militancy?• President showing autocratic tendencies, facing tough elections• Sense of Triumphalism amongst Sinhalese• Communal Violence• Rehabilitation has been a mixed bag• UN pressure for probe into alleged War Crimes has increased

after CHOGM• Elections in Northern Province showed Tamil Grievances • Economy on the upswing• Relations with India improving a bit after post CHOGM slide

QUESTIONS

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