India - A Reality(2)

8/8/2019 India - A Reality(2)

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Prepared by C Y Nimkar 1

INDIALand of paradox

IndiaIndiaIndiaIndiaLand of potentials but contrasts


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Indias Global Competitiveness


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Study of 131 economies accounting 98% of worlds GDP showed that

India ranks 48 th in global competitiveness with score 4.33

108Macroeconomic stability

101Health & primary education

96Labour efficiency

74Basic requirement

67Infrastructure

62Technological readiness

55Higher education & training

37Financial market sophistication

36Goods market efficiency26Business sophistication

3Market size

RankItem

Strengths

Weaknesses

Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2007-08published by World Economic Forum


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Population


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Population in Mn in 2002

47.4

127.5

59.8

82.4

291.0

1049.5

1294.9

Persons % grp.a.

Country

0.4Korea Rep

0Japan

0.4France

0Germany

1.0U.S.A.

1.3India

0.6China Second largest population Equivalent to

4 U.S.A.s 8 Japans 13 Germanys

18 Frances 22 Koreas High growth rate

Source : Human Development Report (HDR) 2005 by UNDP


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Prepared by C Y Nimkar 6Country

Brazil

Indonesia

United States

India

China P o p u

l a t i o n

2 0 0 2

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

P er c en t 50

0217291

10501295

Pareto curve of population - 2002

World population = 6225 Mn China accounts 21% India accounts 17%

Source : Human Development Report 2005 by UNDP


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458 million workforce

Agewise Population of India (2001)

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

140000000

0 - 4

5 - 9

1 0 - 1

4

1 5 - 1

9

2 0 - 2

4

2 5 - 2

9

3 0 - 3

4

3 5 - 3

9

4 0 - 4

4

4 5 - 4

9

5 0 - 5

4

5 5 - 5

9

6 0 - 6

4

6 5 - 6

9

7 0 - 7

4

7 5 - 7

9

8 0 +

A g e n o

t s

t a t e d

Today India is the second largest country

in providing workforce Will surpass China by 2025

World demographic study says that in 2025: India will have largest population

of young workable people (15 to 45 age)in the world


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Gross Domestic Product


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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is themoney value of all final goods andservices produced in the domestic territoryof a country in a year's time.

Definition of GDP


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PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) A rate of exchange that accounts for price

differences across countries, allowinginternational comparisons of real outputand incomes.

At the PPP US$ rate, PPP US$1 has thesame purchasing power in the domestic

economy as US$1 has in the UnitedStates.


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Prepared by C Y Nimkar 11Country

U n

i t e d K i n g d o m

C h i n a

G e r m a n y

J a p a n

U n

i t e d S t a t e s

G D P i n m i l

l i o n

U S $

30000000

20000000

10000000

0

P er c en t

50

0277257032508273322147

4383762

13843825

Pareto curve of GDP (PPP) in Mn US $ - 2007

Source : IMF(2007)

World GDP is 54392 Bn US $ Indias GDP is 1098 Bn US $contributing 2% to world GDP

Strength is in manufacturing

17 % population contributes 2% to world GDP


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Value of product/service an individual isproducing in his country

Per capita GDP


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- -

lllllllll

lllllllll

lllllllll

lllllllll

-lllllllll

-

-

-

lllllllll llllllllllllllllll

-

llllllllllllllllll

lllllllll

lllllllll

lllllllll

--

llllllllllllllllll-

Ranges for per capita gdp 2005Means

33,800 to 41,900 (6)25,500 to 33,800 (19)17,200 to 25,500 (12)

8,900 to 17,200 (24)

600 to 8,900 (104)Source: HDR 2007-08 by UNDP

Per capita GDP (PPP) - 2005 (US $)

9543World

5282Developingcountries

3452India

6757China

Per capitaGDP (US $)

Country

India ranks 117 among 177countries


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GDP at 1999-2000 pricesby Economic activity

8.79.6100100Total

10.711.155.754.7Services

8.911.026.826.7Industry

2.63.817.518.5Agriculture

2007-082006-072007-082006-07

% growth% shareActivity

Monthly Economic Report Apr 2008 Ministry of Finance

Population of India - 2001

100

28

72

%

21

31

18

Decadalgrowth

1028Total

286Urban

742Rural

Population(Mn.)

Agriculture contributes 17.5% to GDP but has to support 65% of population

-3837WORLD

133000India

54634Vietnam

45850Japan

36074China

27448U.S.A.

19431Egypt

RankKg/hectareCountry

Paddy

2665World

102617India

52974U.S.A.

43907China

33907Egypt

26235France

17778U.K.

RankKg/hectareCountry

Wheat

Land availability per 1000persons

World 20.5 sq. kms,Asia 12.7 sq. kms,India 3.1 sq. kms

Low yield Inadequate storage facilities


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Value addition comes from industry whose growthis declining-

Poor infrastructure High taxation Inconducive labour laws for free economy Bureaucracy

Dependency for technology

Service sector can provide employment but willnot boost up GDP


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Per Capita Income


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80.4India

82.9Gambia

83.0Zimbabwe

84.0Central African Republic

84.0Bangladesh85.1Madagascar

85.8Niger

87.2Zambia

87.6Burundi

87.8Rwanda

89.9Tanzania

92.4Nigeria%Country

% of population earning $2 or less per day

12 th in the rank

820 Mn Indians earn $2or less per day

Poverty comparable to

African countries

Source: HDR 2007-08 by UNDP


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Ranges for per capita income at constant 93-94 pricesMeans

27,100 to 33,100 (2)21,200 to 27,100 (1)15,300 to 21,200 (4)

9,400 to 15,300 (7)3,500 to 9,400 (7)

Source : Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Chandigarh Administration.

Per capita income (Rs) in 2003-04

at 93-94 pricesAll India = Rs.11799

16479

11333

3557

824716779

15721

12302

13141

12109

82848383

6487

15800

8571

12976

5702

11612

Chandigarh 33047

Delhi 29231

Pondicherry 23610


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Annual Per Capita Income (Rs.) - India 1999-2000

0

5000

1000 0

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Urban annual PCIRural annual PCISource: India market

Demographics 2002 - NCAER

All India PCI Rs. 19407 (Urban) All India PCI Rs. 9481 (Rural)

Urban

Rural


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Literacy


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Ranges for adult literacy rate 2005Means

84.8 to 100 (103)69.5 to 84.8 (26)54.2 to 69.5 (17)38.9 to 54.2 (11)23.6 to 38.9 (9)


78.6World

76.7Developingcountries

61.0India90.9China

Adultliteracy

rate

Country

Adult literacy rate 2005(% aged 15 and above)

India ranks 147 in adult literacy among 177 countries


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21%16%11%Difference

54%66%75%Female

75%82%86%Male

IndiaAsia*(Excl Middle East)

World*

Literacy Rate - 2002

Source: Country Profiles of the Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations, Economic Situation:

Male Femaledivide is more

Low literacy


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Ranges for literacy rate 2001Means

82.2 to 90.9 (3)73.4 to 82.2 (9)64.6 to 73.4 (9)55.8 to 64.6 (8)

47 to 55.8 (3)

Literacy Rate - 2001

91

Mizoram 88

Lakshadweep 88

82 67

Delhi 82

Chandigarh 82

Pondicherry 81

81

Daman & Diu 8177

77

Tripura 74

73

70

70

70

69

Manipur 69

69

Nagaland 6764

64

Meghalaya 63

64

61

61

Dadra, N Haveli 60

5755

54

48

All India literacy rate 65 36 Cr. personscant read & write

Source: Census 2001


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P r e p ar e d b y C Y

N i mk ar

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0

KERALA

LAKSHADWEEP

MIZORAM

PONDICHERRY

GOA

DELHI

DAMAN & DIU

ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS

CHANDIGARH

MAHARASHTRA

HIMACHAL PRADESH

TAMIL NADU

TRIPURA

MANIPUR

GUJARAT

HARYANA

WEST BENGAL

KARNATAKAMADHYA PRADESH

SIKKIM

RAJASTHAN

ORISSA

PUNJAB

ASSAM

NAGALAND

DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI

M al e

F em al e

L i t e r a c yR

a t e 2 0 0 1

M a l e -F

e m a l e

S o ur c e: C en s u s 2 0 0 1

A l l I n

d i al i t e

M al e7

5 ,F

e

L ar g

er d i vi d

e


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Literacy Rate 2001Rural - Urban

All India literacyUrban 80 , Rural 59

Larger divide

Source: Census 2001


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Prepared by C Y Nimkar 26Source: Census 2001

14.146.1Rural Female

9.670.7Rural Male

7.572.9Urban Female

4.186.3Urban MaleStd. dev

Average

(%)

Urban Rural, Male Female literacy rate comparison

363.3Total illiterates

194.9Rural Female

110.7Rural Male

36.6Urban Female21.1Urban Male

No of illiterates (Mn)

36 crore Indians can not read and write,

of which 30 crore are in rural areas


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Urban

92.0HIMACHALPRADESH

93.2TRIPURA

93.8LAKSHADWEEP

95.9KERALA

96.4MIZORAM

MaleState

76.8UTTAR PRADESH

79.9BIHAR

80.0JAMMU & KASHMIR

83.1PUNJAB

83.2ANDHRA PRADESH

MaleState

Top 5 Bottom 5

83.5MEGHALAYA

85.0HIMACHALPRADESH

85.0TRIPURA

90.6KERALA

95.8MIZORAM

FemaleState

61.7UTTAR PRADESH

62.0JAMMU & KASHMIR62.6BIHAR

64.7RAJASTHAN

68.7ANDHRA PRADESH

FemaleState

Top 5 Bottom 5

Rural

84.9MIZORAM

86.6DELHI

87.4GOA

91.5LAKSHADWEEP93.6KERALA

Male

57.1BIHAR

57.7ARUNACHALPRADESH

59.2MEGHALAYA

60.9JHARKHAND

61.7JAMMU &KASHMIR

Male

71.9GOA

72.3

ANDAMAN &NICOBARISLANDS

77.3MIZORAM

78.3LAKSHADWEEP

86.7KERALA

Female

29.6BIHAR

29.9JHARKHAND

30.8DADRA & NAGARHAVELI

36.7JAMMU &KASHMIR

36.9UTTAR PRADESH

Female

Bottom 5Top 5Bottom 5Top 5

Literacy rate Top 5 and bottom 5 states


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Needs 20 more years to achieve 100% literacySource: Economic survey of India 2001 02,Ministry of Finance

Progress in literacy rate


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Prepared by C Y Nimkar 29Reproduced from 61st

NSS round (July 2004-June 2005)

Reasons for not attending school

How do we break vicious circle between needto earn & education?


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Housing


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Housing conditions in rural India

50%Pucca structure31%Semi pucca structure

19%Katcha structure

%Type of house

% households

31Tripura

36Andaman Nicobar

36Nagaland

37Mizoram

44Meghalaya

52Assam

64Arunachal Pradesh

%State

% Rural households living in

unserviceable katcha structure

Census - 2001

High %

All in NE India


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% of slum population

6050403020100-10

P o p u

l a t i o n o f c

i t y -

2 0 0 1

14000000

12000000

10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0

PatnaKalyan-Dombivali

LucknowBhopalAgra

Bangalore

HaoraPimpri Chnchw adVaranasiNashik

Ahmadabad

Vadodara

KanpurJaipur

Hyderabad

Indore

Delhi

Chennai

PuneSurat

LudhianaThane

Kolkata

Nagpur

MeerutFaridabad

Mumbai

27 cities withpopulation morethan 10 lacs (73.3

Mn) of which 24% livein slums (17.7 Mn)

Source: Census 2001

Slum population

City severely affected


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Health


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30India

31Sudan

32Yemen

36Bangladesh

Infants with low birthweight (%)

Country

Fourth in the world in infants born with low birthweight



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Ranges for % of anaemic children below 3 yearsMeans

80 to 87.6 (7)72.3 to 80 (5)64.6 to 72.3 (6)

56.9 to 64.6 (3)49.2 to 56.9 (4)

% anaemic children below 3 years

All India = 79%

32

Mizoram 52

49 83

Delhi 63

72

59

73

80

80

69

Manipur 53

83

58

Meghalaya 69

74

79

80 85

68

88

57 66

77Tripura 68

Source : Lok Sabha UnstarredQuestion No. 4589,dated 08.05.2007.


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Ranges for % of anaemic females between 15 to 49 yearsMeans

61.8 to 69 (6)54.4 to 61.8 (3)47 to 54.4 (7)39.6 to 47 (4)32.2 to 39.6 (5)32

Mizoram 38

39 50

Delhi 43

49

41

53

56

38

63

Manipur 39

57

58

Meghalaya 45

62

62

53 51

53

68

47 49

69Tripura 64

% anaemic women between 15 - 49

All India = 56%

Source : Lok Sabha UnstarredQuestion No. 4589,dated 08.05.2007.


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TechnologyCreation & Diffusion


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1190.81India

7081.416China31872.61113Korea

32612.5158Germany46052.7244USA

52873.1857Japan

Researchers

in R & D(per Mnpeople)

R & D Exp

(% to GDP)No. of patents

granted toresidents (per

Mn people)

Country

1.0Developing Nations2.3World

R & D Exp (% to GDP)


6%India17%China

32%Korea35%U.S.A.

59%Malaysia59%Phillipines

61%Singapore

High techexports as % of manf. exports

Country


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487.256618India

8.5991684China0.01007710Korea

0.01008685Singapore

1569.0681221DevelopingCountries

1577.0762701World

Populationwithout electricity(Mn)

ElectrificationRate (%)

Per capita

consumption(Kilowatt -Hours)

Highest in the worldSource: HDR 2007-08 by UNDP

Per capita electricity consumption in 2004-05E l d D d


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Ranges for per capita consumption of elctricity in kwh 2004-0Means

1,750 to 2,180 (2)1,330 to 1,750 (1)

910 to 1,330 (5)490 to 910 (10)

70 to 490 (12)

(in Kwh)

Source : Lok Sabha UnstarredQuestion No. 3608, dated on16.12.2005.

Excludes DadraNagarhaveli (8290 Kwh) &Daman Diu (7360 Kwh)

All India = 618 Kwh760

1281

1247

951

578

649

398

Mizoram 433

Lakshadweep 348

2179

680

Delhi 1549

Chandigarh 873

Pondicherry 2045341

Daman & Diu 81899

Tripura 352

1059

984

430

Manipur 283

Nagaland 181163

517

Meghalaya 521

724

791Dadra, N Haveli 60

310

325

75

C i f d 200 0


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54%90%Electricity

12%59%LPG

RuralUrbanCommodity

Consumption of goods 2004-05

Figures show % households owning goods

Source: NSS round 509

86% rural households use firewood for cooking. 42% rural households use kerosene for lighting


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Telephones


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Ranges for overall no of telephones per 100 personsMeans

67.6 to 82.7 (1)52.3 to 67.6 (0)37 to 52.3 (0)21.7 to 37 (5)6.4 to 21.7 (19)

Tele-densityNo. of telephones* per 100 persons - 2006

17 telephones per 100 Indians

* Public and private Direct ExchangeLines, CMPs, WLL (Fixed & Mobile)

Source: Ministry of Communications & IT

25

23

35

21

14

13

32

23

Delhi 82

17

17

20

8

8

11

9

18

10 7

3

3

9

North East 10

2 4 6 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 S o *W


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P r e p ar e d

b y C Y N i mk ar

0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0

HIMACHAL PRADESH

KERALA

DELHI

PUNJAB

ANDHRA PRADESH

KARNATAKA

HARYANA

BIHAR

GUJARAT

ASSAM

RAJASTHAN

ARUNACHAL PRADESH

WEST BENGAL

JAMMU AND KASHMIR

ORISSA

MAHARASHTRA

UTTAR PRADESH

TAMIL NADU

MADHYA PRADESH

ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS

MANIPUR

MEGHALAYA

T el e- d

en

si t y* 2

0 0

6 U r b

an

1 7

T o t al

2

R ur al

5 3

Ur b an

T e l e - d e n s i t y

o ur c e: Mi ni s

t r y of C omm

uni c a t i on s & I T

* P u b l i c an d pr i v a t eD i r e c t E x c h an

g eL i n e s , C MP

s ,

WL L

( F i x e d

& M

o b i l e )


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Radio & TV

S B 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0


47/69

P r e p ar e d

b y C Y N i mk ar

o ur c e: Mi ni s t r y

of I nf or m

a t i on

&

r o a d c a s t i n g , G ov

t . of I n

d i a.

0 . 0

0 . 0

0 . 0

0 . 0

0 . 0

0 . 0

0 . 0

0 . 0

0 . 0

Jammu & Kashmir

Kerala

Goa

Delhi

Uttaranchal

Himachal Pradesh

Karnataka

Tamilnadu

Pondicherry

Manipur

Mizoram

Uttar Prad esh

Haryana

Punjab

Arunachal Pradesh

Sikkim

Maharashtra

Rajasthan

Nagaland

Meghalaya

Assam

Gujarat

Tripura

Bihar

R a d i o

onw

er s h i p

T V

own

er s h i p

%

HH o wni n

gR a d i o ,T V

Al l I n d i a

o wn e r s

R a d i o- 3 8%

T V-

3 4 %

E x c e p t i on s


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Newspaper

0 . 0 0

1 . 0 0

2 . 0 0

3 . 0 0

4 . 0 0

5 . 0 0

6 . 0 0


49/69

P r e p ar e d

b y C Y N i mk ar

C H A N D I G A R H

DAMAN & DIU

KERALA

UTTAR PRADESH

G U J A R AT

JAMMU AND KASHMIR

M A H A R A S H T R A

SIKKIM

RAJASTHAN

M I Z O R A M

ORISSA

ANDAMAN & NICO BAR ISLANDS

MADHYA PRADESH

P U N J A B

TRIPURA

TAMIL NADU

ANDHR A PRADESH

P O N D I C H E R RY

W E S T B E N G A L

HARYANA

DADRA & NAG AR HAVELI

G O A

KARNATAKA

MANIPUR

R e a d e r s h i p

( N o of n e w

s p a p e r s r e a d

p e r HH

)

Al l I n d i aM

e d i an

N o of p a p er s r e a d

p er H H

3

3 . 0 0

2 . 5 0

2 . 0 0

1 . 5 0

1 . 0 0

. 5 0

0 . 0 0 N

o of p a p er s r e a d

pe

Frequency

2 0 1 0 0


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Computers & Internet


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Source : Ministry of Statistics and ProgrammeImplementation, Govt. of India.

1.341.040.770.580.53PCs in use per 100 Population

14.511865.4PC population (in million)

20052004200320022001Year (March Ending)

(2001 to 2005)

Personal Computer (PC) Population and In Use per 100Population in India

PC penetration


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Source : Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,Govt. of India.

5.5630.06.2005

5.3031.03.20054.0531.03.2004

3.5031.03.2003

3.2431-03-2002

2.9131-03-2001

0.9431-3-2000

0.2313-3-1999

Internet Subscribers (million)Year

(As on 13.03.1999 to 30.06.2005)

Number of Internet Subscribers in

India

38% of PC users


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Human Development Index


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Adult literacy rate


56/69


du t te acy ate

Adult literacy index =Adult literacy rate - 0

100 - 0

Gross enrolment index =Gross enrolment ratio - 0

100 - 0

Education index = 2/3 (Adult literacy index) + 1/3 (Gross enrolment index)

GDP per capita


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GDP per capita

GDP Index =log (GDP per capita) log 100

log 40000 log 100



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(Life expectancy index) + (Education index) + (GDP index)HDI =

3


HDI - 2005


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Ranges for human development index 2005Means

0.84 to 0.968 (49)

0.714 to 0.84 (54)0.588 to 0.714 (21)0.462 to 0.588 (27)0.336 to 0.462 (15)

0.743World

0.691Developingcountries

0.619India

0.777China

HDI2005

Country


1280.6192005

1150.5711999

820.2541970

RankHDIYear

Indias performance

Rank is slipping

Gender related Development Index (GDI)


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0.600113India

0.77673China

0.91026Korea

0.93120Germany

0.93518New Zealand

0.93716U.S.A.0.94410U.K.

0.9507France

0.9555Sweden

0.9564Canada0.9573Norway

0.9602Australia

0.9621Iceland

GDIRankCountry


Index of equality betweenmale and female development

Based on three factors-

Long and healthy life Literacy

Earnings

India ranks 113 th among 177countries in gender equality


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Governance

India


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Prepared by C Y Nimkar 62Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2007-08published by World Economic Forum

Infrastructure, Bureaucracy, labour laws, corruption and tax regulations are main issues

Transparency Index 2007(Score out of 10)

0 88Per capita GDP

Correlation of Transparency index with


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Ranges for transparency indexMeans7.82 to 9.4 (14)6.24 to 7.82 (13)4.66 to 6.24 (24)3.08 to 4.66 (38)1.5 to 3.08 (75)

Source: Transparency International (2007)

-0.03Population

0.72HDI

0.88Per capita GDP


64/69

Prepared by C Y Nimkar 64Source: Transparency International India (2007)


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Corruption Index


66/69


Ranges for corruption indexMeans

604 to 695 (2)

513 to 604 (5)422 to 513 (7)331 to 422 (2)240 to 331 (2)

p

301

417

459

516

543

655

240

576

Delhi 496

433

509

461

542

584

475

421

491695

445

520

Indias Balance Sheet


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Second largest workforce Third largest market size

Democratic country Good Business acumen Developing economy

Assets Heavy pressure on agriculture for

livelihood Inadequate infrastructure Bureaucracy Corruption Outdated labour laws Poor work culture Low literacy Low emphasis on science & technology High taxation Widening Urban-Rural gap Male-Female gap

NE India lagging behind in few parameters Central India lagging behind in all

parameters

Liabilities


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Therefore ..


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India is shining .......

What about Bharat ???

India - A Reality(2)

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Transcript of India - A Reality(2)