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Nifty weekly roadmap

Date : 29/06/2013

Prepared by Nitin. E. Bagde

E.mail address - nitin_in@yahoo.com

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Sentiments Analysis A major pattern seems to have completed and this may lead to fall in S&P500. The resistance on upper side is around

1625. If 1625 is not breached then S&P500 can fall till 1525 in next 1-2 weeks. The expected fall may generate negative sentiments in Indian

Stock markets.

Weekly wave chart of S&P500 cash

Expected pattern Expanding Triangle

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Sentiments Analysis the 60.23 is the strong weekly resistance on upper side. The weekly support is around 59.00. The probability is high that

short term top may have been made at the high of 60.76. If 59.00 on lower side is breached then USDINR may fall till 57.50 during next week.

The expected fall in USDINR may generate positive sentiments in Indian Stock markets.

Weekly wave chart of USDINR cash

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Trend and Candlestick Pattern Analysis As was mentioned in last report, the pull back took place during current week. The long term trend of

Nifty cash is sideways moving in between earlier high (6335.90) and low (4531.15). The medium term trend is up making higher highs and higher

lows. The short term trend was down and the Nifty cash turned up from the crucial support level. The weekly resistances are at 5865 & 6010 and

the weekly support are at 5710 & 5565. We expect index to breach above 5865 and may rise till 6010 level during next week.

Weekly candlestick chart of Nifty cash

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Medium term Elliott Wave (Neely) analysis In the last report, it was mentioned that the Nifty cash may fall till 5200-5100 area. But the Nifty

cash turned up from middle with powerful up move. The last wave circled g of the Diametric pattern took ten time units to complete. If the

Diametric concludes wave circled D then the last circled g wave must have been retraced more than 100% within ten time units, which has not

happened and hence the current fall from the top of 6229.45 may be wave circled x. If the Nifty cash fails to fall below 5500 then the fall from

6229.45 will be x wave and in this case, Nifty cash may rise up to minimum of 6550 in next 2-3 months.

Weekly wave chart of Nifty cash

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Short term Elliott Wave (Neely) analysis The up move from the end of wave (G) is too fast and does not disclose the internal pattern. But since

the first wave after completion of Diametric is generally equal to largest wave inside diametric, we can claim that the current up move may rise

till 5860-5880 area before a correction sets in. The correction may fall till 5800-5770 area and in no case beyond 5720 level. Hence we expect

Nifty cash to consolidate in between 5880 and 5770 for a week before next major up move takes place.

Daily wave chart of Nifty cash

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ConclusionFor medium term, the clarity is less about the future direction and extent of move as per

NeoWave theory. But since the last leg of up move was not retraced 100% in less time, the

probability of Nifty cash reaching 6550 in next 2-3 months is very high. Only if 5500 is

breached then the expected up move will get negated and in this case, Nifty cash may fall

till 5200-5100 area.

For shorter term, the trend has turned up and the Nifty cash may rise up to 5860-5880

area. We expect index to consolidate between 5880 and 5770 for a week before starting

next major up move.

Trade idea Buy Nifty July contract when cash Nifty is around 5780. Use 5700 of cash

Nifty as stop loss. Target can be set around 5950 of cash Nifty which may be reached in

next 2-4 weeks.

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Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by Nitin E.Bagde. Nitin E.Bagde is a Technical Analyst.

This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an

investment/trading decision. The investment/trades discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors/traders.

This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an officialconfirmation of any transaction. Also the value, income, appreciation, returns, yield of any of the securities or financial

instruments mentioned in this statement are based on current market conditions and subject to change. Please note, however,

that some data has been derived from sources that is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Please review this

information for accuracy as Nitin E.Bagde cannot be responsible for omitted or mistaken data. This report is not directed or

intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,

country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation orwhich would subject Nitin E.Bagde to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The distribution of

this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this document comes, should

inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. This information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Nitin E.Bagde reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time.

However, Nitin E.Bagde is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Nitin E.Bagde will not be liable for

any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or inconnection with the use of the information. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can

be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. Please note that past performance of

Capital / Debt Market / Financial Products / Instruments does not necessarily indicate the future prospects and performance

thereof.

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