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IndependentPanelforCapacityProjectReview

ReporttoMurrayDarlingBasinMinisterialCouncil

17December2019

DrJaneDoolan(Chair)DianneDavidsonDavidHarriss

DrTerryHillmanPaulSimpsonGraemeTurner

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ExecutiveSummaryOn4August,2019,theMDBMinisterialCouncilagreedtoappointanindependentpanelofexpertstopeerreviewtheRiverMurrayCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectcurrentlybeingundertakenbytheMDBAinpartnershipwithjurisdictions.TheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectwasdevelopedinresponsetoagrowingconcernwithingovernmentsandcommunitiesthat,overtime,theriskoftheRiverMurraysystem(RMS)notbeingabletomeetallsystemanddeliverydemandswasincreasing.TheIndependentPanelforCapacityProjectReview(thePanel)undertookashortterm,highlevelreviewoftheworkprogram,theworkdonetodateandthemodelthathasbeendevelopedtounderpinit.Inundertakingthisreview,thePanelconsideredthattheworkprogramshouldbedesignedtoensurethatitcouldprovidegovernmentswithadequateinformationonallkeyissuesrelatingtotheriskandmanagementofsystemanddeliveryshortfallstoenablethemtomakerobust,evidence-baseddecisionsonoptionsforthefuturemanagementofshortfallrisk.ThePanelmadethreefindingsinrelationtotheworkprogramandtheunderpinningmodel.

Finding1–TheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplanisappropriatelyfocusedontheidentificationoffactorsaffectingtheriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallswithintheRiverMurraysystemandtheinvestigationofmanagementoptionstoalleviatethatrisk.Issuesrelatedtowateravailabilityareoutsidethescopeoftheproject.

Finding2-ThecurrentriskofasystemordeliveryshortfalldownstreamoftheChokewillincreaseasaconsequenceofreducingchannelcapacityattheBarmahChokeandindownstreamtributaries,increasinghorticulturedevelopmentintheMurrayValley,theincreasedwaterrequirementsofhorticulturedevelopmentsasrecentplantingsmature,andtherequirementtodeliverenvironmentalentitlementstoachieveoutcomesundertheBasinPlan.Thisislikelytobeexacerbatedunderadryingclimate.Finding3-Themodelisappropriateforcomparativeanalysisofscenariostodeterminesensitivitytoriskfactors.Itisnotappropriatetodetermineabsoluterisk.

ThePanelthenmadeanumberofdetailedrecommendationsonwhereadditionalworkwasrequiredtoimprovethecurrentprocess,enableappropriateevaluationofmanagementoptionsandprovidegreaterconfidenceintheanalyses.Theseincludedthefollowing:Understandingtheriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallsinthecurrentsystem(Section2.1)

1. Incorporatedetailedplantingandirrigation-methoddatafromSouthAustralia(whichisreadilyavailable)intotheSunRISEreportassoonaspracticabletoensurethattheMDBAisusingthebestavailablereferencedatainmanagingtheriversystem.

2. RequestVictoriaandNewSouthWalestoInvestigatethesignificanceofenvironmental

issuesintheLowerGoulburnandMurrumbidgeeRiversandtheirimplicationsforsystemcapacity–thisincludesidentifyingpotentialsummer-autumnflowregimesthatcouldminimiseenvironmentaldamagewhilstfacilitatinginter-valleytransfersintheLowerGoulburnRiverandunderstandingwhetherIVTsarecausingenvironmentaldamageintheLowerMurrumbidgee.

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Understandingwhethershortfallriskchangesunderfuturescenarios(Section2.2)

3. Undertakeasapriority,twoadditionalfuturemodellingscenarios:a. Examiningtheimpactsofclimatechangeonbothinflowsandincreased

temperature.b. Examiningtheimpactofconstraintrelaxationproposalsthatarecurrentlyunder

activeconsiderationbygovernments.Understandingimpactsofsystemordeliveryshortfallsforconsumptiveandenvironmentalentitlementholders(section2.3)

4. Undertakedetailedworkonimpactsanddurationofawaterdeficitatdifferentpointsinthegrowingseasonforavarietyofcropstakingintoconsiderationvariationsinsoiltypeacrossthemajorriverreaches.

5. Developindicatorsofenvironmentaldeliveryshortfalls.

6. Undertakedetailedworkinconsultationwithenvironmentalwaterholderstounderstand

theimplicationsofshortfallsforarangeofcategoriesofenvironmentalwateringeventsunderdifferentclimatesequencestounderstandtheirimpactsonenvironmentaloutcomes.

Assessingtheimpactsofpossiblemanagementoptions(Section2.4)

7. Asanimmediatepriority,jurisdictionsshoulddevelopacontingencyframeworkformakingdecisionsonhowtheywillmanageshortfallswhentheyoccurandagreeonkeysteps,rolesandresponsibilitiesinimplementingandcommunicatingthesedecisions.Thisshouldalsoincludeconsiderationofenvironmentaldeliveryshortfalls.

8. RevisitpreviousworkonBarmahChokebypassoptionsandundertakeafirst-cutfeasibilityanalysistobringforwardrevisedsetofoptionsinmid-2020.

9. DeterminetherateofsedimentationofBarmahChokeandfeasibilityofextractionto

increasecapacity.

ModelCapability(Section2.5)

10. Asahighpriority,improvetherepresentationofenvironmentalwateringdemandsacrossthesystem,andtheabilitytoindicatewhenenvironmentalwaterordersarenotabletobemet.

11. Undertakeanumberofgeneralmodelimprovementsincludingamorecontemporaryrepresentationof:Victorianallocationpolicies,modelledinflowsfromtheGoulburnandMurrumbidgeevalleys,LakeVictoriaoperatinglevels,rivertransmissionlossesintheBarmahChokeareaandtheinterimoperationalmeasuresintheLowerGoulburnrecentlyintroducedbyVictoria.

12. Reviewpotentialforoperationalanalysistoinformtheinterpretationofmodelleddelivery

shortfalls.

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Finally,thePanelexaminedthetimelines,resourcingandgovernanceoftheprojectandmadethefollowingrecommendations.Timelines,reviewandresourcing(Section3)

13. ExtendthetimelinefortheprojectandplanitoveraperiodtillJune2021.

14. Includeregular6-9monthlyreviewsoftheprojectoutputsandplannedactivities.

15. MaintainatleastcurrentlevelsofresourcingwithinMDBAandjurisdictions.GovernanceandCommunication(Section4)

16. EnsurethatjurisdictionalrepresentativesontheCPWGhavetheskills,authorityandtimeavailabletoproperlymanagetheproject.

17. Asahighpriority,developasharedproactivecommunicationstrategyincludingkey

messages,clearrolesandresponsibilitiesforcommunicatingwithstakeholdersandaclearpathwayforstakeholderstoengage.

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1 IntroductionOn4August,2019,theMDBMinisterialCouncilagreedtoappointanindependentpanelofexpertstopeerreviewtheRiverMurrayCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectcurrentlybeingundertakenbytheMDBAinpartnershipwithjurisdictions.PanelmembersandfinalTermsofReferencewereagreedbytheBasinOfficialsCommitteeon10October2019andareprovidedatAppendixA.TheBOCdeterminedthattheIndependentPanelforCapacityProjectReview(thePanel)wouldbeestablishedtoundertakeashorttermpieceofwork(reportingbacktotheMinisterialCouncilon17December,2019)to:

– ProvideadviceontheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplanincluding• Scope,timeframes,resourcesandriskmanagement.

– Peerreviewtechnicalandpolicyworktoensureitisadequatetoprovidehighqualityadvicetogovernmentsonoptionsforthefuturemanagementofshortfallriskincludingreviewingthe:

• modellingapproach;• adequacyofdataandanalyses;and• adequacyofexistingandproposedpolicydevelopmenttoaddressissues

relatingtothedeliverabilityofallwaterentitlementsintheRiverMurraysystem.

ThePanelChairprovidedadetailedpresentationoftheirconclusionsandrecommendationstoBOC20November2019.

1.1 ProjectContext

TheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectwasdevelopedinresponsetoagrowingconcernwithingovernmentsandcommunitiesthat,overtime,theriskoftheRiverMurraysystem(RMS)notbeingabletomeetallsystemanddeliverydemandswasincreasing.Theconcernwasgeneratedbyobservationsthat,inthe2014-15and2015-16wateryears,flowsintheRiverMurraywereatorclosetosystemcapacityforlongperiodsoftime.Thiswasduetohighoverallwateravailabilitywithinthesystem,combinedwithdryconditions.Whilstdemandswereabletobemetinthoseyears,theprospectofanincreasingriskofasystemordeliveryshortfallhadbeenraised.FromtheperspectiveoftheMDBjointventure,thequestionneededtobeansweredand,iffoundtobecorrect,actiontakentomitigatetherisk.Thesituationhasarisenbecauseofchangesinthetypicalhistoricdemandpatternthathaveoccurredgraduallyoverthepast25yearsasaresultofwaterreform,coupledwithaclimaticsequencewherethesystemhasbeenindroughtformuchofthatperiod.Inthepast(i.e.pre1994),theRMSanditsmajortributarieswereoperatedtosupplyanumberofgenerallypredictableconsumptivedemands.Theseincluded:

– SouthAustralia’sentitlementflow;– townwatersuppliesanddomesticandstockalongthesystem;and– consistentirrigationdemandsinknownirrigationdistrictsandprivatedivertersinknown

locations.

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Meetingthesedemandsthroughouttheseasonhasalwaysbeenachallengeforriveroperatorsbecauseofthenaturally-occurringBarmahChokeinthemid-RiverMurraywhichisamajorconstraintonthetransferofwaterbetweentheupperstorages(i.e.HumeandDartmouthDams)anddemandsinthelowerriverreaches.However,thepredictabilityofthesedemandsenabledriveroperatorstooptimisetheirmanagementofthesystembytransferringwaterintoLakeVictoriainthefarsouth-westofNSWearlierintheseason(i.e.overlatespring)sothatSouthAustralia’sentitlementflowcouldbestoredandsuppliedfromLakeVictoriainsummerandautumnratherthanfromHumeandDartmouthdams.ThisenabledwatertobeavailablefromthesestoragestomeetirrigationdemandsinNSWandVictoriabetweentheBarmahChokeandtheSouthAustralianborder.Inpastdecades,LakeVictoriahasalsobeenfilledfromsharedresourcesintheMenindeeLakesontheDarlingRiver.Evenunderthesearrangements,therehasalwaysbeenaninherentriskofadeliveryshortfall.However,inthepast25years,anumberofchangeshasoccurred.Governmentshaveintroducedsomesignificantpolicychanges,including:

– theintroductionofwatertradingandtheestablishmentofaninterstatewatermarketforbothpermanententitlementsandwaterallocations.Asaresultofwatertrading,therearenowsignificantnewareasofpermanentplantingsintheSunraysiaandRiverlandareaswhichdidnotexist25yearsago;and

– thedevelopmentoftheBasinPlanwhichrequiredrecoveryandtransferofasignificantvolumeofconsumptiveentitlementstotheenvironmentwithenvironmentalwaterholdersnowholding~1970GLacrossthesouthernconnectedsystemtobemanagedtomeetanewandverydifferentsuiteofdemandswhichwillevolveinresponsetonewknowledge.Someofthesedemandsrequiretheprovisionofhighflowsi.e.upto50000ML/daydownstreamofYarrawonga(althoughthisiscurrentlylimitedto15,000ML/d).

Inaddition,thepast25yearshasincludedsomeofthedriestperiodsonrecordandasaconsequence,businesseshavechangedthewaytheyusedwaterandgovernmentshavemadeanumberofchangestorulesincludingcarryoverofunusedallocationandchangestosystemreservetoassistentitlementholderstomanagethroughdrought.Allofthesechangescombinedhaveledtosubstantialchangesindemandpatterns.Theyhaveshiftedlargelydownstreamandarenowfarmoredynamicinnaturethateverbefore.Thishasoccurredagainstabackgroundofchanginginflows(e.g.throughmuchofthepast20yearstheDarlingRiverhasbeenindroughtandthecontributionofwaterfromtheMenindeeLakestotheRMSforthispurposehasbeenlimited).Riveroperatorshavehadtoadapttheirsystemmanagementandbecomemoreflexibleandadept.TheyarenowrunningsectionsoftheRiverMurrayatcapacityformuchofthetime,andincreasinglyrelyingonInter-valleyTransfers(IVT)frommainlytheGoulburnRiverandsometimestheMurrumbidgeeRiver.InthePanel’sview,giventhemajorchangesthathaveoccurredoverthelast25yearsandthechangingclimate,thisissuewasalwaysgoingtobehavingtobedealtwith–itwasmoreaquestionofwhen.

1.2 PanelApproach

Giventheshorttimeframe,thePanelundertookahigh-levelreviewoftheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplan(AppendixB)whichhadbeendevelopedbytheMDBAandendorsedbytheCapacityPolicyWorkingGroup(CPWG).Thisincluded:

– MeetingsbetweenthefullPanelandMDBAprojectstaffontheoverallworkprogram.– MeetingsbyPanelexpertsonspecifictechnicalissuesincluding

– modelling–withMDBAmodellersandrelevantjurisdictionalstaff

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– environmentalwaterdemandsandmethodsofassessingimplicationsofpolicyoptionsonenvironmentaloutcomes

– methodsofassessingimplicationsofpolicyoptionsonagriculturalproductionandindustries.

– Peerreviewoftworeportsandprojectscopedocuments.– APanelrepresentativeattendingtwomeetingsoftheCapacityPolicyWorkingGroup.– AfinalteleconferencewithjurisdictionalmembersofCPWGtodiscussthebroadoutcomes

andconclusions.Nostakeholderconsultationwasundertaken.

1.3 ProjectScope

ThePanelconsidersthatthefocusoftheprojectshouldbeontheidentificationoffactorswhichcouldincreasetheriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallswithintheRiverMurraysystemandtheinvestigationofmanagementoptionstoalleviatethatrisk.Awatersupplyshortfallisdefinedasaninabilitytoprovideentitlementholderswiththeirwaterallocationswhenandwheretheywantit.Thisincludesallentitlementholders–bothconsumptiveandenvironment.1ThePanelnotesthatashortfallinwatersupplycanoccurintwoways.

• Systemshortfall–wherethesystemmanagementisunabletodeliversystemrequirementsoverthefullseason.Underthisscenario,LakeVictoriadropstoolowanditispotentiallynecessarytorestrictconsumptive/environmentaldiversionsintoNSWandVictoriadownstreamoftheBarmahChokeinordertosupplymoreofSAentitlementflowfromtheupperMurray.Thisgenerallyoccursasaresultofchannelcapacityconstraints.

• Short-termdeliveryshortfall-whereaspikeindemandexceedswateravailableinriverfordiversions.Theseshortfallscanresultfromextended/intenseheatwaves.Thelongtraveltimesfromtheupperstorages(3-4weeks)andcapacityconstraintsattheBarmahChokemeanthatitisnotpossibletorespondtoreleasewaterintimetomeetdemands andotherpotentialmitigationmeasures(e.g.temporarydrawdownofweirpools)maybeinadequatetoavoidashorttermshortfall.

ThePanelrecognisesthattheriskofasystemordeliveryshortfallwithintheRiverMurraysystemisoftenconfusedinthepublicdomainwiththeriskposedtoentitlementholdersbyreducedwateravailabilityduetodrought.InthePanel’sviewthesearetwoverydifferentthingsandtheroleforgovernmentsineachisquitedifferent.

• Inthecaseofasystemordeliveryshortfall,theriskisthatactualwaterallocatedtoentitlementholdersinaseasoncannotbesuppliedtothemwhentheyneeditbecauseofissuesinsystemmanagement.ThemanagementoftheRiverMurraysystemisthejointbusinessofjurisdictionsandisundertakenbytheMDBAontheirbehalfundertheMDBAgreement.GiventhatanysystemordeliveryshortfallistheresponsibilityoftheMDBJoint

1ThePanelnotes,thatstrictlyundertheMDBAgreement,itisactuallythestatesthatsuffertheshortfallbuttheycanonlymanageitbyrestrictingaccesstotheirentitlementholderssotheeffectisfeltbyentitlementholders.

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Venture,thereisaroleforgovernmentstoreviewsystemmanagementand,wherepracticable,alleviatethisrisk.

• Inthecaseofreducedwateravailabilitybecauseoflowinflowstothesystem,thisisaprivateriskbornebytheentitlementholderwhomakesabusinessdecisiononthevolumeandtypeofentitlementsrequiredtosupporttheirbusinessenterpriseandindoingso,choosestheirlevelofriskbasedontheircommercialdecision-making.Theroleforgovernmentsinthiscaseisaboutprovidingadequateinformationtothemarketandcommunitytoinformthesedecisions.

Giventhis,thePanelreviewedtheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplanandconsidersthatitisappropriatelyfocusedonthenecessaryissues.

1.4 ConceptualModelforReview

InreviewingtheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplan,thePanelconsideredthatitshouldbedesignedtoensurethatitcouldprovideMinisterswithadequateinformationonallkeyissuesrelatingtotheriskandmanagementofsystemanddeliveryshortfallssogovernmentscouldmakerobust,evidence-baseddecisionsonoptionsforthefuturemanagementofshortfallrisk.Weconsideredtherewerefivekeyareasthattheworkplanneededtocover(Fig1).Theseinclude

1. Understandingtheriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallsinthecurrentsystem.2. Understandingwhetherthatriskchangesunderlikelyfuturescenarios.3. Understandingtheimpactsofeithersystemordeliveryshortfallsforbothconsumptive

andenvironmentalentitlementholders.4. Assessingtheimpactsonentitlementholdersofarangeofpossiblemanagement

options(includingpolicy,structuralandoperationaloptions)tosupportdecision-making.

5. Thedevelopmentofamodelandaprogramofmodellingworkthatcouldsupporttheseanalyses.

Finding1–thePanelconsidersthattheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplan is appropriately focused on the identification of factors affecting the risk ofsystemanddeliveryshortfallswithintheRiverMurraysystemandtheinvestigationofmanagementoptionstoalleviatethatrisk.Issuesrelatedtowateravailabilityareoutsidethescopeoftheproject.

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Fig1.ConceptualmodelofaWorkPlantosupportevidence-baseddecision-makingondeliveryshortfallriskForeachofthesekeyelements,wereviewedrelevantareasoftheworkprogramtodetermine:

• Whetherthecurrentwork(undertakentodateandplanned)wasappropriate• Whethertherewereanygaps• Iftherewerepossibleimprovementsthatcouldbemade• Whethersomeareasrequiredahigherpriority• Ifthemodellingcapabilitywasadequateforthetask.

Wethenfinallyexaminedtheprojectgovernancearrangementsandthecommunicationplan.Ourcomments,findingsandrecommendationsforeachoftheseelementsareoutlinedintheSectionsbelow.

2 ReviewofKeyElementsofCapacityandDeliveryShortfallWorkProgram

Inreviewingtheworkprogram,thePanelnotedthatiteffectivelyhas18monthsstilltorunandthattheworktodatehadbeenfocusedonbuildingthemodelwhichwillprovidethebasisformuchoftheanalysisandpopulatingitwithdata.Therefore,someelementsarefurtheradvancedthanothersandanumberarescheduledforcompletionin2020andsomehaveyettocommence.

2.1 RiskinCapacityandDeliveryShortfallsintheCurrentSystem

Inestablishingthewatersupplyshortfallriskinthecurrentsystem,anumberoftaskshavebeencompleted.Theseinclude:

Assesspotentialimpacts

ManagementOptions• Identifyoptions• Assessimpactofoptionsonentitlementholders

Modelling- futurescenarios

Policyoptions

FutureRisk• Dorisksincreaseordecreaseunderlikelyfuturescenarios

CurrentSystem•Assesscurrentrisk•Understanddriversofrisk• Isproblemincreasing?•Arethereotherfactors

Modelling- sensitivityanalysis

Modelling- currentconditions

Analysisofhistoricaldata

Examples• Increasechoke

capacity• Chokebypass

options

Examples• Tradelimitations

eg RestrictingIVT,lateseasontrade

• Protocols withewater managers

• Landandwaterusecontrols

Examples• Constraint

relaxation• Mid-murray and

weiroperations• Riskofspill in

LakeVictoria

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- Understandingcurrentwateruseanditsdrivers.Thisinvolved:

o UpdatingfiguresforirrigatedcropareasintheLowerMurray-Darling(undertakenbySunRISE21)asinputtothemodel;and

o AnanalysisofwateruseinthereachBarmah-SAborderoverthepast25yearstofullyunderstandtheextentofchangeinwaterdemands(theHARCreport).

- UnderstandingthereductioninBarmahChokecapacityThechannelcapacityattheBarmahChoketopassregulatedflowshasbeenreducingoverthepastthreedecadesfrom11,500ML/dinthe1980’s,to10,500ML/dinthemid-1990’sto9,200ML/din2019.WorkundertakenbytheMDBA,supportedbySAWaterhasidentifiedthatsectionsofriverbankonoutsidebendsareexperiencingincreasingratesoferosion,butthatthechannelisreducingbecauseofsedimenttransportfromupstreamoftheBarmahChoke.AgeomorphologicalstudysuggeststhatitisduetoasandslugmovingslowlyfromVictoriantributariesdowntheriver.However,theincreasingerosionofoutsidebendsoftheriverandunderminingofriparianvegetationisdamagingthenaturalvaluesoftheforestandgivesthebroadercommunitythepotentiallyerroneousimpressionthattheincreasinglyconstantdeliveryofhighflowsthroughtheBarmahChokeisresponsiblefordecreasingchannelcapacity.

ThePanelreviewedboththeHARCandtheSunRISE21reportsandmadethefollowingcomments.SunRISE21reportThisreport,commissionedbytheMDBAforuseinconfiguringtheSOURCEmodel,providesirrigatedcropareadatafortheLowerMurrayDarling2003-2018.ThereportcoverstheRiverMurrayreaches10-22,approximatelyfromLakeBogatotheBarrages.ThedataistakenfromaerialimageryofJanuary2018,and‘forVictoriaandNSWdatawassourcedfromover80%ofirrigators.Thedataisconsideredtobethemostuptodateavailableasofthe2017/2018seasonwiththereportmappingchangesintheirrigatedcropareasoverthe15yearsandreportingthemethodsofirrigation.ThePanelnotedthatthedata,aspresented,appearsacceptableforNSWandVictoria,buttheSouthAustraliandataisincompleteandentirelyinadequate.InReach22,some6000haofpermanentplantings(grapevines)intheLanghorneCreekandCurrencyCreekareaarenotrecorded,eventhoughtheyliewithintheMDB.Inaddition,waterdrawnfromReaches19/20isusedtoirrigateapproximately5000-6000haofhighvalueplantingsintheBarossaandClareValleys.WhilstSouthAustralia’suseofRiverMurraywateriscapped,themodel’sfocusonensuringthedeliveryof1850GLeachyeardoesnotallowforanyconsiderationofthewaterrequirementsofthesecrops,northetimingthereof,northeeconomicimpactofaseriousshortfall.ThePanelconsidersthatdetailedplantingandirrigation-methoddatafromSouthAustralia(whichisreadilyavailable)shouldbeincorporatedintotheSunRISEreportassoonaspracticabletoensurethattheMDBAisusingthebestavailablereferencedatainmanagingtheriversystem.HARCreportThisreport,undertakenasanindependentreviewbyHydrologyandRiskConsulting(HARC),examinedthehistoricaluseofwater,usingSunRISEcropdataforNSW,VictoriaandSouthAustralia.Ithasshown:

• Asignificantincreaseincroparea,particularlypermanentplantings,downstreamoftheBarmahChoke;

• Recoveryofwaterentitlementsfortheenvironment;• ExpansionofpermanenthorticultureintheSunraysiaregion;

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• Increasedinter-valleytradeofwaterfromtheGoulburnandMurrumbidgeeRiversintotheMurray,and

• IncreasedflowstoSouthAustraliaduetotradeandenvironmentalflows.

TheanalysisundertakenbyHARC,concludedthattherehasbeenlittlechangetotheannualpatternofconsumptive(irrigation)usedownstreamoftheBarmahChokealthoughdemandhasmovedfromclosertotheBarmahChoke(Torrumbarry)downstreamtoSunraysia.Theanalysisalsoindicatesthatenvironmentalwateruseandconsumptivewateruse(includingtradetoSouthAustralia)arecombiningtogeneratehigherpeakmonthlydemands.TheprimaryconclusionbyHARCisthatthecombinedconsumptiveuse,inter-valleytradeandthegenerallyseparatetimingofconsumptiveandenvironmentalflowsshowstherehasbeennoincreaseintotalorpeakseasonconsumptivedemandintheMurraysystemovertime.This,in-turn,wouldindicatethattherehasbeennoincreaseinthepotentialforsupplyordeliveryshortfallsovertime.WhiletheHARCanalysisconsidersthehistoricaluseofwaterandconcludesthereisnoincreaseinpotentialforsupplyordeliveryshortfalls,itonlyconsiderstheimpactonconsumptiveentitlements,andassumesthereisnoconflictwiththedeliveryofenvironmentalentitlements,whichmaynotbevalidinallyears.ThePanelconsidersthattheHARCreportisausefulinput.Takenonitsown,itsuggeststhatthereisnochangeinshortfallrisksolelyasaresultofgrowthinirrigatedhorticultureplantings.However,thePanelconsidersthatthisisnoreasonforcomplacencyasthereareanumberofotherfactorsthatneedtobeacknowledgedinrelationtothecurrentsystem.Theseinclude

1. ImplicationsofcurrentpermanentplantingforfuturewaterdemandsPlantingsinSunraysiaandRiverlandarenotyetatfullmaturityanddevelopmentiscontinuingtooccur.TheSunRISEreportdoesnotrecordthenewnutplantingsinSunraysiain2019andtheAlmondBoardexpectstheretobeanincreaseofalmostanother10%ofplantingsinthecurrentwaveofdevelopmenttoreach50,000haacrossallstates.TheAlmondBoardindicatesthat38%ofthetotalplantingsareinVictoria,20%inSouthAustraliaand8%inNSW.TheBoardfurtherestimatesthatabout30%ofcurrentplantingsareyoungornotatfullmaturity,sowiththeseorchardsandothersyettobeplantedthereisclearlygoingtobeahigherdemandfromtheriversysteminSunraysiaandSouthAustralia.

2. PotentialfuturereductionsinSystemCapacitya. BarmahChoke-TheanalysisundertakenbyHARCconcludesthatthedirected

releaseofenvironmentalwaterfromHumeDamaretimedtoensurenoincreasedpressureontheBarmahChoke.However,thePanelbelievesthatthecumulativeincreaseindiversionsthroughtheChoke,fortransfertoLakeVictoria,fordeliveryofwaterforconsumptiveuseandfordeliveryofenvironmentalentitlementsisresultinginhighflowspassingthroughtheChokeformuchlongerperiodsthanwouldhaveoccurrednaturallyandiscontributingtotheincreasederosionoftheriverbanks.ThetrajectoryandrateofsedimentationoftheBarmahChokeduetothesandslugalsoneedstobedeterminedtounderstandwhetheritwillcontinuetoreduceandbyhowmuch.

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b. TheLowerGoulburn-AnecdotalevidenceprovidedtotheExpertPanelsuggeststhatthechannelandriparianenvironmentoftheLowerGoulburnRiverisbeingseverelydegradedasaconsequenceoftheintervalleytransferoflargevolumesofwaterfromtheGoulburnValleyinsummerandautumninthepastfewyears.TheVictorianGovernmentrecentlyintroducedinterimarrangementsforIVTsfromtheGoulburnRivertoreducethedetrimentalimpactofthesetransfersontheenvironmentoftheLowerGoulburnRiver.Theimpactoftheseinterimmeasuresonsystemcapacitywillneedtobeunderstoodandtheireffectivenessinreducingenvironmentalimpactswillneedtobemonitored.ThePanelnotesthat,dependingonthesuccessoftheseinterimmeasures,furtherrestrictionsmaybenecessaryinthefuture-whichcouldinturnimpactsystemcapacity.

c. TheMurrumbidgeeRiver–ThePanelalsoheardthattheremaybepotentialfor

environmentaldegradationoccurringasaresultofIVTsintheMurrumbidgeeRiver.Thereseemedtobelessevidencetosupportthis.Giventhis,thePanelconsidersthatitisimportanttoestablishwhetherthisisanactualissuewhichwillrequireactionornot.

3. ActualEnvironmentalShortfallin2018-In2018,theMDBAwasunabletodeliverenvironmentalentitlementsinspringandsummerasthechannelcapacityoftheBarmahChokewasalreadyexceededinthedeliveryofwatertomeetdownstreamconsumptivedemandandthetransferofwatertoLakeVictoria(IRORG2019).Thisisthefirstactualshortfallsince2002.

4. RMSdrivenmuchharderoverthelast20years–asreportedpreviouslytoMinisterialCouncil(August2019),thelast20yearshavebeendrierthanpreviousandRMoperationshashadtodrivethesystemmuchhardertomeethigherpeakdemandsinsummerwhentradeandenvironmentalwaterdeliveriestoSouthAustraliaaretakenintoaccount.Theyhavereportedthatusinganumberofcontingencyactionswithintheircontroltoavoiddeliveryshortfallshasvirtuallybecomenormalpracticeandthereisnofurtheroperationalbufferthatcanbeemployed.

5. Consequencesofdeliveryshortfallsaresignificantlyhigher–becauseofthelevelof

investmentinSunraysiaandtheRiverland,theeconomicconsequencesofanactualdeliveryshortfall(dependingontimingandduration)onirrigatorsislikelytobemuchhigherthaninthepastwhilsttheimpactofashortfallontheenvironmentisyettobeassessed.

Asaconsequence,thePanelconsidersthatariskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallsintheRiverMurraydownstreamoftheBarmahChoketotheSouthAustralianborderremains,particularlyindryseasonswithhighwaterallocationsthatrestrictstheuseofMurrayIrrigationLimitedchannelinfrastructure(theMulwalacanal)topassadditionalvolumesaroundtheBarmahChoke.Moreover,thecurrentriskiscomplicatedbythelackofsecurearrangementsforaccesstoadditionalcapacitythroughtheuseoftheMulwalaCanal.Currently,theJointVentureonlyhastemporaryarrangementswithMurrayIrrigationLimited,andtherehasbeennoagreementinplaceinsomeyears.Moreover,thePanelalsobelievestheriskofsystemordeliveryshortfallswillpotentiallyincreaseasthecapacityoftheBarmahChokeanddownstreamtributariesreduces,ashorticulturedevelopmentcontinues,andifthepatternofthedeliveryofenvironmentalentitlementsshouldextendfurtherintoperiodsofpeakconsumptivedemand.Thisislikelytobeexacerbatedunderclimatechange.

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2.2 RiskinCapacityandDeliveryShortfallsunderLikelyFutureScenariosThenextlogicalstepistounderstandhowthecurrentriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallscouldchangeunderlikelyfuturescenarios.TheworkprogramincludedseveralscenariostobetestedandcompletedbyMay-June2020.Theseincludedchangestoinflowsequences,reductionsinBarmahChokecapacityandincreasingconsumptivedemandinthelowerreachtosimulatecurrentplantationsreachingfullmaturityandfurtherdevelopment.ThePanelconsidersthattherearetwoadditionalscenariosthatneedtobeundertakenasapriority.Theseare

1. Climatechangescenario–incorporatingasfaraspossiblea. potentialchangesininflowsb. likelyirrigatorresponsetobothincreasedtemperaturesandreducedwater

availability

2. ConstraintRelaxationscenario–ThePanelconsidersthatideallythereshouldbeascenariowhichlooksattheimpactoffullBasinPlanimplementationincorporatingallSDLAMprojectsandunconstrainedenvironmentaldeliverysequences.However,thePanelunderstandsthatmanyoftheSDLAMprojectsarestillunderactivediscussion.Consequently,itwilltakeanumberofyearstofullydeveloptheenvironmentaldeliverypatternanditisnotpossibletoundertakethisinthenextfewmonths.However,thePanelconsidersthereisrealmeritinmodellingtheimpactoftheconstraintproposalsthatarecurrentlyunderactiveconsiderationbygovernmentsandwhichdirectlyaffectthecapacityoftheRiverMurraysystem.ItisimportantforgovernmentstounderstandwhethertheseproposalsarelikelytoaffecttheriskofawatersupplyshortfallandthereforewhethertheywouldhaveanyadditionalbenefitsfortheRMSoverandabovetheenvironmentaloutcomesoftheBasinPlan.

Theseadditionaltwopiecesofworkwillassistgovernmentsinunderstandingwhetherthecurrentriskislikelytobeincreasedordecreasedunderthesefuturescenarios.

2.3 UnderstandingImpactsofCapacityandDeliveryShortfallsonEntitlementHolders

InadditiontounderstandingthecurrentandfutureriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallsintheRMS,itisimportanttounderstandtheconsequencesofashortfallonentitlementholdersshoulditactuallyoccur.Therearelikelytobesignificantdifferencesbetweenconsumptiveusers(i.e.irrigators)andtheenvironmentinarangeofparameterstobeconsidered.Theseinclude;

Finding2 - thePanel considers that the current risk of a systemor delivery shortfalldownstreamoftheChokewillincreaseasaconsequenceofreducingchannelcapacityattheBarmahChokeandindownstreamtributaries,increasinghorticulturedevelopmentintheMurrayValley,theincreasedwaterrequirementsofhorticulturedevelopmentsasrecentplantingsmature,andtherequirementtodeliverenvironmentalentitlementstoachieveoutcomesundertheBasinPlan.Thisislikelytobeexacerbatedunderadryingclimate.

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- theidentificationofashortfalli.e.howitisdefinedinthemodelforirrigationand

environment- thetypesofshortfallsthatwillimpacte.g.ashort-termdeliveryshortfall(durationofdays)in

summerisunlikelytohaveenvironmentaleffectsbutcouldhavesevereimpactsongrowers.Whereasalong-termcapacityconstraintinspringcouldcutshortalongtermplannedenvironmentaldeliveryresultinginanunsuccessfulbirdbreedingeventwiththedeathsoflargenumbersofchicks.

Worktodatehasfocusedondevelopingthecapabilitytoquantifyeconomicimpactsonconsumptiveusers(i.e.irrigators)withworkbeingundertakenbyAgricultureVictoria.Thisworkiscurrentlyinprogressandneedscarefulscopingtoensurethatitwillbecredibletoirrigators.Suchworkwillneedtobequitedetailedwithattentiongiventothewithinseasonwaterrequirementsofdifferentpermanentplantingsandtotheimpactsanddurationofawaterdeficitatdifferentpointsinthegrowingseasonsuchasflowering,fruitsetorfruitmaturity.Toaddtothecomplexity,themaincropsofgrapevines,nutsandcitrusdonothavesynchronisedgrowingseasons.Theworkshouldalsoattempttoconsidermajorvariationsinsoiltype(soilwaterholdingcapacity)indifferentreaches,assomedistrictsmaywellcopebetterwithashortfallthanothers.Lessattentionhasbeenpaidtodatetotheenvironmentalimpactsofasystemordeliveryshortfallalthoughitisscheduledontheworkprogramforthenextfewmonths.Thisisbecauseenvironmentalwateringisanewmanagementdisciplineandourunderstandingofthefactorsinfluencingitssuccessiscontinuingtoevolveasenvironmentalwaterholdersundertakemorecomplexwateringevents.Intryingtodeterminetheriskprofileofdeliveringenvironmentalwaterortheimpactofsufferingashortfallinthatdelivery,thefollowingshouldbenoted:

• Therelationshipbetweenthevolumeofdeficitandecologicalresponseisoftennon-linear.Failuretoactivateanenvironmentaltriggerexpectedfromanenvironmentalwateringeventmayresultinwastingthetotalenvironmentalallocation.Itfollowsthatproratareductioninvolumeamongstenvironmentalflowsfacingashortfallisaninappropriateresponse.Areviewofprioritiestofewersitesmaybebetteruseoftheavailableenvironmentalwater.

• Timingofthebeginningofanenvironmentalfloweventmaybenegotiable(weeks)but,onceit’scommenced,theshapeofthehydrographiscriticalandneedstobemaintainedoverthefulldurationtoachievetheenvironmentaloutcomes.

ThePanelrecognisesthattheworkrequiredtoenablesomepredictionoftheenvironmentalimpactsofashortfallwillbenotbeeasyandwillbeabestattempttoconsolidateexistingknowledge.Itwillneedtobeundertakeninconsultationwithenvironmentalwaterholdersandshouldinclude:

• Thedevelopmentofanindicator(s)ofanenvironmentalshortfallwithinthemodel.• Theundertakingofdetailedworktounderstandtheimplicationsofashortfallforthefull

rangeofcategoriesofenvironmentalwateringevents.Thiswouldincludeunderstanding,underdifferentclimatesequences,theirimpactsontheplannedoutcomeforthatenvironmentaleventandthelonger-termenvironmentaloutcomesforthesite.

ThePanelrecognisesthatthiswillbeabletobecontinuouslyimprovedoverthenextfewyearsasreal-timewateringeventsareundertakenandadaptivelymonitored.IntheviewofthePanel,boththeseareasofworkareimportantandofhighprioritybecauseuntiltheyarecompleted,itisnotpossibletoconsistentlyevaluatetheimpactsofanymanagementoptionsthatgovernmentsmaywishtoconsider.

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2.4 AssessingManagementOptionsFollowinganalysisofthecurrentandpotentialfuturerisks,governmentwillhavetomakedecisionsonwhetherit’sworthwhiletotakeactiontoreduceriskandifso,how.Therearethreetypesofpossiblemanagementoptionsthatcouldbeundertakentoalleviatetheriskoverthelongerterm(Figure1).Theseinclude:

• Structuraloptionstoincreasethecapacityofthesysteme.g.increasingthecapacityofBarmahChokeorby-passingtheBarmahChoke.Theseoptionsarelikelytobecostly,haveanumberofenvironmentalissuesassociatedwiththemandwouldrequiredecisionsonhowmuchadditionalcapacitywouldbedesirabletomeetcurrentandfuturedemand.

• Policyoptionswhichcouldinclude:o Reviewingtradelimitstoinfluencelevelsofirrigationdevelopmentandwaterusein

theRiverMurraybelowtheBarmahChokee.g.restrictingIVT,lateseasontradeoralltradefromupstreamtodownstreamoftheBarmahChoke.Dependingonhowtheywereimplemented,thesecouldhavesignificantimpactsonexistingentitlementholders,thevalueofwateronthemarketandfuturedevelopment.

o Developmentofprotocolswithenvironmentalwaterholders,includingwhereagreementsareundertakenbetweenenvironmentalwaterholdersandriveroperatorswhichreflectthelevelofrisktotheenvironmentandenableimprovedenvironmentaloutcomes.Thiscouldbeasensibleapproachbutstartstodepartfromtheprinciplethatallentitlementholdershavethesameconditionsandobligations.

o Landandwaterusecontrolsinareaswherefuturedevelopmentislikelytooccur.CurrentlytherearesalinitycontrolsinplaceinVictoriaandSAbutgiventhepaceandprospectforfuturedevelopmentintheLowerMurrayarea,governmentsmayhavetoconsiderarangeofpotentiallystrongeranddifferentcontrols.

• Operationaloptionse.g.o RelaxingkeyconstraintsalongtheRiverMurraythroughimplementingsomeofthe

proposedconstraintprojects.o Reviewmid-Murrayweirandstorageoperations.o ReviewprotocolsfortransferringwaterfromLakeHumetoLakeVictoria–thiscould

resultinearliertransfersfromLakeHume.ThiswouldreducevolumesinLakeHumeandhavesomeimpactonresourceavailabilityinsomeyearsandincreasetheriskofspillsfromLakeVictoriafromtributaryinflow.

Thelistabovegivesanideaofsomeoftheoptionsavailable.ThePanelconsidersthatwiththeconsiderationofanyoptiontherewillbeperceivedwinnersandlosers,includingjurisdictionsandentitlementholders.Therewillbemanyvariationsontheseoptionsandmultiplecombinations.Akeymessageisnoneofthemarewithoutsomeimpactandthereforetheywillhavetobeconsistentlyassessedandevaluatedandtheircomparativeimpactswellunderstood.Themodelanditsrelatedpredictionsofimpactswillbeanimportantcomponentinassistingtoidentifyapreferredsubsetofmanagementoptions.However,anyfinaldecisionbygovernmentsonamanagementsolutionwouldnotonlytakeintoaccountmodeloutcomesbutwouldhavetoalsoassessabroaderrangeofpotentialimpactse.g.potentialimpactonpriceofwater-temporaryandpermanent,potentialflow-oncommunityimpacts,effectsonBasinPlanenvironmentaloutcomes.Becausetheefforttodatehasgoneintodevelopingthemodelandthecapacitytoevaluateimpacts(stillrequiringfurtherworkasdetailedabove),thesectionoftheworkprogramdealingwiththe

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assessmentofmanagementoptionsislesswell-advanced.Oncethemodelisfullyconfiguredandtheworktopredictimpactsiscompleted,itwillbepossibletostartassessingarangeofmanagementoptions.Atthispoint,itwillbeimportantforjurisdictionstoagreeonaprioritylistofoptionsforassessment.ThisshouldnotbelefttotheMDBAalone.ThePanelconsidersthatjurisdictionswillhavetomanageanyimpactsontheirentitlementholdersandthattheywillneedtoagreeonwhatoptionstheywanttojointlyconsider.InthePanel’sview,jurisdictionsshouldundertaketodothisbyMarch2020.However,thePanelconsidersthatthereisanimmediateandurgentpriority.Currently,MDBAadvisethatthereisalowlikelihoodofadeliveryshortfallovertheremainderofthe2019-20wateryear.However,theyalsoadvisethatthereisalwaysaninherentriskarisingfromfactorslikearunofextremelyhotweather.Currently,jurisdictionsdonothavecontingencyarrangementsinplacetomanagesuchanincidentshoulditoccur.Whilstitmaynotbepossibletoagreeonexactsharingarrangements,giventhattheimpactsofeveryshortfallwillbedifferentdependingontimingandduration,itshouldbepossibletodevelopaframeworkformakingthesedecisionswhentheyoccurandagreeingonkeysteps,rolesandresponsibilitiesinimplementingandcommunicatingthem.Thisshouldalsoincludeconsiderationofenvironmentaldeliveryshortfalls.Whilstitisontheworkprogram,thistaskhasbeendelayedandisnotyetcomplete.ThePanelconsiderthistobeanurgentpriority.ThePanelalsoconsiderthattherearetwotasksthatcouldbeundertakenintheshorttermthatwouldassistintheassessmentofmanagementoptionswhenthemodelisreadyandtheworkonpredictingimpactsiscomplete.Theseare:

– RevisitpreviousworkonBarmahChokebypassoptionsandundertakeafirst-cutfeasibilityanalysistobringforwardrevisedsetofoptionsinmid-2020.

– DeterminerateofsedimentationofBarmahChokeandfeasibilityofextractiontoincreasecapacity.

2.5 ModelCapability

TheMDBAhasdevelopedalong-termdailysimulationmodeloftheRiverMurraysystemusingtheNationalHydrologicModellingPlatform(Source),knownastheSourceMurrayModel(SMM).

TosupporttheRiverMurrayCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProject,theMDBAhasconfiguredSMMtoreflectascloselyaspossibletheirrigationdevelopmentlevels,wateruserbehaviourandmanagementrulesinplacein2018/19,knownastheReferenceScenario.TheReferenceScenarioisdescribedinmoredetailinthefollowingsections.Uniquelyamongbasinmodels,theSourceMurrayModel(SMM)hasrecentlybeenenhancedtoincludekeyprocessessuchasallocation(temporary)tradeandamorecontemporaryrepresentationofenvironmentalwateruse,althoughtheseremaindifficultprocessestoreproduceclosely.

2.5.1 Initialoutcomes

Short-termdeliveryshortfallsModellingsuggeststhatveryminordeliveryshortfallsareoccurring,butithasnotbeenpossibleatthisearlystagetoformaconclusionofanychangetothefrequencyofshort-termdeliveryshortfalls.

Historicallythepossibilityofshort-termdeliveryshortfallsinhighdemandperiodshasbeenanon-goingconcernalthoughtheoccurrenceofactualshortfallshasnotbeenfrequent.Thishaslargelybeenduetoactivemanagementoforders,thedrawdownofweirpoolsasatemporarymeasureorthetimelyoccurrenceofrainfallevents.

Withinseasonsystemshortfalls

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TherequirementtohaveminimumoperatinglevelinLakeVictoriaattheendofthefollowingMaytosecureSouthAustralia’sentitlementflowforthefollowingseasonisakeydriverofRiverMurrayoperations.ThemodellingisshowingthatmeetingtheserequirementsoccursslightlylessoftenintheReferenceScenariothantheBDLscenario,althoughthereisnosignificantincreaseintransfersfromHume–LakeVictoria.Thisissueislikelytobeincreasinglyimportantunderdryconditions,particularlywhenadditionalsuppliescannotbecalleduponfromtheMenindeeLakesstorages.

2.5.2 Limitations

NotwithstandingthesignificantadvancesthathavebeenmadeinthedevelopmentoftheSMM,itisimportanttokeepinmindthatthisisalong-termplanningmodelthatrunsovera125yearperiod,andcannotbeexpectedtocapturethefullrangeofvariabilityinthebehaviourofwaterusers(consumptiveandenvironmental)andtheriversystem,particularlyduringtheextremesinwetanddryconditions.Thismeansthattheselong-termplanningmodelsarenotwellsuitedtoidentifyingtransientdeliveryshortfallsduringthesummermonths.

Whilstitisnotedthatthemodelsimulatesasimilarlackofdeliveryshortfallstothatobservedintherecentpast,itishardtojudgewhetherthemodel’sresponsetochangesinconditionsundersomeoftheintendedfuturescenarioswillberobust.

AkeyprocesswithinSMMistherepresentationofenvironmentalwatering,withtheenvironmentbeingoneofthelargestentitlementholdersintheSouthernConnectedSystem.However,environmentaldemandsarestillevolving,andthemodelhasarelativelysimplerepresentationofhowwaterrecoveredundertheBasinPlanisused.

Thebehaviouroftheallocation(temporary)trademarketisdynamic,stillevolving,andinfluencedbyeconomicdriversthatarenotsimulatedinhydrologicmodels.ThemarketisalsoincreasinglyactiveacrosstheSouthernConnectedSystem,includingtheGoulburnandMurrumbidgeevalleysthataremodelledseparatelytoSMM.Accordingly,theinitialrepresentationoftradebehaviourinSMMhasrequiredsomesimplificationstobemade,anditisunderstandablydifficultforthemodeltocloselyreproduceobservedtradebehaviouracrossthebroadersouthernconnectedsystem.

Inter-valleytradeandtheoperationofendofvalleyaccountsisanimportantinfluenceontheriskofdeliveryandsystemshortfalls,andfurtherworkisrecommendedbyboththeMDBAandtherelevantbasinstatestoimproverepresentationofthisinthemodel.

2.5.3 Areasforimprovement

AhighpriorityimprovementinSMMforthisprojectistherepresentationofenvironmentalwateringdemandsacrossthesystem,andtheabilitytoindicatewhenenvironmentalwaterordersarenotabletobemet.EnvironmentaldemandsforwaterrecoveredundertheBasinPlanarecurrentlyrepresentedatafewkeylocationssuchasdownstreamofYarrawongaWeir.However,forayearsuchas2018/19,environmentalwaterorderswereunabletobemetassystemrequirementstorefillLakeVictoriausedtheavailablechannelcapacitythroughtheBarmahChoke.Inthiscircumstance,asimpleflowmetricatYarrawongaWeirwouldbemet,eventhoughtheintendedenvironmentaldeliverytargetsfurtherdownstreamwerenotmetinpractice.

Theeventof2018/19alsosuggeststhatashortfallinmeetingenvironmentaldemandsinthewinter/springcouldhavetheeffectofincreasingenvironmentaldemandsduringthesummermonths,whichwouldincreasetheriskofdeliveryshortfalls.Thismeansthatrepresentingtheeffectsofanenvironmentaldemandshortfallinthemodelisalsoconsideredaprioritymodelimprovement.

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Withtheincreasingrelianceontemporarytrade,includinginter-valleytrade,tosupporttheexpandinghorticulturaldevelopmentsinthemidMurray,themodel’sabilitytosimulatesuchtradeisbecomingincreasinglyimportant.ModelimprovementscouldincluderepresentationofthetradelimitationsacrosstheBarmahChoke,andareviewofassumedinter-valleytradevolumesunderarangeofcircumstancesthatextendbeyondthoseobservedin2017/18and2018/19.

Asisthecaseforlong-termplanningmodelsacrossthebasin,thereisalwaysarangeofimprovementsthatcan,andshould,bepursued.Manyoftheseimprovementsarenotlikelytobeindividuallysignificanttothemodel’sabilitytosimulatedeliveryandsystemshortfalls,buttherearesomethatcouldbepursuedintheshorttermtoimproveconfidenceinthemodel.Theseincludeamorecontemporaryrepresentationof:Victorianallocationpolicies,modelledinflowsfromtheGoulburnandMurrumbidgeevalleys,LakeVictoriaoperatinglevels,andrivertransmissionlossesintheBarmahChokeareaandtheinterimoperationalmeasuresintheLowerGoulburnrecentlyintroducedbyVictoria.

2.5.4 Modelling-Conclusions

Thedifficultiesincloselyrepresentingkeycurrentprocesses,suchastradeandenvironmentalwateruse,inlong-termmodellingmeansitremainsdifficultforlong-termmodellingtobeabletocloselysimulateshort-termoperationalcircumstancessuchasdeliveryshortfallsthatmightlastonlyafewweeks.Assuch,itisdifficulttoquantifytheabsoluteriskofshortfallsoccurringbasedonthemodelresults.

ThelargerscaledriversforsystemshortfallsatLakeVictoriatendtooperateattheseasonalscale,suchasinflows,wateravailablefromMenindeeLakes,rivertransmissionlosses,andirrigationdemands.ThereisgreaterconfidencethatthesearebeingsimulatedrobustlyandthatSMMismorecapableofidentifyingthenatureandextentofsystemshortfallsintheRiverMurray.

ThevalueofmodelssuchasSMMisthattheycanbeusedtoundertakeacomparativeanalysisbetweendifferentmodelscenariostotestthesensitivityofsimulatedshortfallstovariousriskfactors,suchasplausiblealternateclimatesequencesordifferentoperatingrules,andtotestpotentialmitigationmeasuressuchaspolicychangesorinfrastructureoptions.TheMDBAhavealreadycomparedtheresultsoftheReferenceScenariototheBDLScenariothatrepresents2009conditions,whichsuggeststhatthepotentialfordeliveryandsystemshortfallshasnotworsenedsignificantly.

Theuseofoperationalcasestudiesmayassistinfurtherunderstandingthepotentialfordeliveryshortfalls.Casestudiesaremoreapplicabletoexaminingindividualyearsthanlong-termrisk.

3 Timelines,ReviewandResourcingTheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectiscurrentlyonlyan18monthprogramofwork.ThePanelconsidersthat,givenitscurrentstatusandtheremainingworktobeundertaken,itishighlyunlikelyitcouldbecompletedwithinthattimeperiodandthatattemptingtodosowillcompromisethequalityofthework.

Finding3-thePanelconsidersthatthemodelisappropriateforcomparativeanalysisofscenariostodeterminesensitivitytoriskfactors.Itisnotappropriatetodetermineabsoluterisk.

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Webelievetheprojectneedstobeundertakenovera2-3yearperiodtoenablegovernmentstomakeconsidereddecisionswithhighqualityinformationthatiscredibletokeystakeholders.Wealsoconsiderthattheworkdonetodateshowsthat,whilstthisisaseriouslong-termissueforgovernments,thereisnoneedforurgentactionwithinthenext18monthsotherthanthedevelopmentofanagreedcontingencyframework.ThePanelconsidersthatextendingthetimeframeoftheprojectwillenable:

• Continuousupdatingofcriticaldatausedinthemodel,including-o furthergroundtruthingofdatasoastoincorporaterefinementsovertime,suchas

variationsinirrigatorbehaviourandmajordifferencesinsoiltype.Thisisaresourceintensiveexercisebutessentialtogiveconfidenceandtransparencytothemodelledmanagementofthesystemandamoredefiniteframeworkonwhichtobuildfutureadvances.

o improvementsinenvironmentaldemandplanningandknowledgeofenvironmentaloutcomesofwateringevents.

o decisionsonSDLAMprojectsastheyaremadebygovernments.• ImprovedintegrationwithotherworkcurrentlyinprogresswithintheMDBAsuchasthe

PPM(PrerequisitePolicyMeasures)implementationandthesocio-economicstudybeingcarriedoutatthepresenttime.

• IncorporatingrelevantoutcomesofthecurrentACCwatermarketreviewduetobehandeddownattheendof2020whichislikelytomakesuggestionsorrecommendationswhichcouldinfluencethetimingandvolumesoftradedwater.

Theprojectworkplanwillneedtoaccommodateallthisnewinformationandbeadaptedasitgeneratesresultsfromthemodelledscenariosandplannedstudies.Giventhis,thePanelconsidersthatitshouldbereviewedevery6monthstoensurethatnewinformationhasbeenincluded,thatplannedactivitiesremainrelevant,andtoreviewprioritiesandidentifyanyemerginggaps.Inrelationtoresourcing,thePanelconsidersthatthecurrentlevelofmodellingcapabilitybothwithintheMDBAandjurisdictionsisahighriskfortheproject.Thereisashortageofskilledandexperiencedmodellers-experiencetellsusthatsuchpeopleneedtimetogainarealunderstandingoftheirsubjectandtheyneedsecureandstableemploymenttoachievethis.Thereisalsoakeyriskthatwiththeworseningofthecurrentdrought,jurisdictionalstaffwillberedeployedtodealwiththisimmediatepriorityissue.Whilstthisisunderstandable,itwilldelaykeyelementsofthisproject.Asdiscussedinthesectionbelow,thisprojectcannotbeundertakenbytheMDBAalone–italsorequiressignificantresourcesfromjurisdictions.

4 GovernanceandCommunicationAsoutlinedinthesectionsabove,thePanelconsiderstheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjecttoanimportantprojectthatshouldbeahighpriorityfortheMDBjointgovernmentventure.Webelievethattheprojectgovernanceshouldreflectbothitssignificanceandthefactthatitisasharedproblemforjurisdictionswhichwillrequiretrustandgoodwilltoresolve.TheprojectneedstobeownedandmanagedbythejurisdictionswiththeMDBAactingasacoordinator/facilitatorandundertakingagreedactivitiesonthejurisdictions’behalf.Currently,theprojectismanagedbytheCapacityPolicyWorkingGroup(CPWG).ThePanelhasreviewedtheirToRandfoundthemtobeappropriate.However,jurisdictionsneedtoensurethattheirrepresentatives:

• havetherightmixofskills

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• havetheauthoritytomakeappropriatedecisionsonbehalfofthejurisdiction• havethetimeavailabletoproperlydevotetotheproject• areabletoactinaccordancewiththeToR.

TheCPWGshouldreporttoBOCregularlyontheprojectandbeheldaccountablebyBOCforitsprogress.Inrelationtocommunication,theworkprogramrequiresthedevelopmentofacommunicationstrategyin2020buttheonlyworktodatehasbeenthepreparationofaverypreliminarydraftengagementplan.ThePanelnotesthattherearearangeofstakeholdershighlyconcernedaboutthisissue.Therefore,communicationneedstobeplannedcarefullywithaviewtoprovidingstakeholdersandcommunitieswiththebestavailableinformationonthecurrentunderstandingofsystemanddeliveryshortfallriskandaclearpathwayforinputintodecisionsonmanagementoptions.ThePanelconsidersthatthedevelopmentofaproactivecommunicationstrategyshouldbeapriorityfortheCPWG.Thestrategyshouldinclude:

• Keymessagesandcommunicationoutputs.• ClearunderstandingofrolesandresponsibilitiesbetweenthejurisdictionsandtheMDBA

outliningclearlywhotalksonwhattowhomandwhen.• Agreedprocessandpathwayforstakeholderengagementeithercollectivelyorwithin

individualjurisdictionsbutcoordinatedbetweenthem.ThePanelconsidersthatensuringthatthejurisdictionsandtheMDBAspeakwithonevoiceandcommonmessagesonthisissueiscritical.Itisimportanttorecognisethatmanyirrigatorsnowholdaportfolioofwaterentitlementstomeettheirbusinessneedswithwaterproductsfromallthejurisdictions.Theyarenowmoreinterestedincollectiveapproachesandthecombinedimpactsofjurisdictionalpoliciesandlessinthesingleactionsofjurisdictions.Aproactivestrategyisrequiredbecauseinrecenttimes,intheabsenceofasharedstrategy,thedefaulthasbeentoprovidetheminimumlevelofinformationrequiredtodealwithanissueafterithasbecomeasignificantcommunityproblem.Thissimplyincreasesmistrustwithinthecommunityandprovidestheopportunityformisinformationtotakehold.ThePanelsuggeststhattheMinisterialCouncilcouldgiveconsiderationtoaslightlymoreformalisedprocessthanoriginallyplanned.AshortpaperoutliningfindingstodateandtherangeofmanagementoptionsunderconsiderationcouldbereleasedinMarch2020withstakeholdersabletomakesubmissionsiftheywished.Thiswouldprovidetheopportunitytoputfactualinformationonthecurrentriskandthedriversofshortfallriskintothepublicdomain(i.e.todispelanymyths)andenablestakeholderstorecordtheirviewsonpossiblemanagementoptionswhichcouldassistinprioritisingthoseforfurtheranalysis.

5 FindingsandRecommendationsThePanelmadethreefindingsinrelationtotheworkprogramandtheunderpinningmodelwhichareoutlinedinthesectionsabove.Inaddition,wemakethefollowingrecommendationsrelatingtotheworkprogramUnderstandingthecurrentsystem(Section2.1)

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1. Incorporatedetailedplantingandirrigation-methoddatafromSouthAustralia(whichisreadilyavailable)intotheSunRISEreportassoonaspracticabletoensurethattheMDBAisusingthebestavailablereferencedatainmanagingtheriversystem.

2. RequestVictoriaandNewSouthWalestoinvestigatethesignificanceofenvironmental

issuesintheLowerGoulburnandMurrumbidgeeRiversandtheirimplicationsforsystemcapacity–thisincludesidentifyingpotentialsummer-autumnflowregimesthatcouldminimiseenvironmentaldamagewhilstfacilitatinginter-valleytransfersintheLowerGoulburnRiverandunderstandingwhetherIVTsarecausingenvironmentaldamageintheLowerMurrumbidgee.

Understandingriskunderfuturescenarios(Section2.2)

3. Undertakeasapriority,twoadditionalfuturemodellingscenarios:a. Examiningtheimpactsofclimatechangeincludingbothinflowsandincreased

temperature.b. Examiningtheimpactofconstraintrelaxationproposalsthatarecurrentlyunder

activeconsiderationbygovernmentsUnderstandingimplicationsforentitlementholders(Section2.3)

4. Undertakedetailedworkonimpactsanddurationofawaterdeficitatdifferentpointsinthegrowingseasonforavarietyofcropstakingintoconsiderationvariationsinsoiltypeacrossthemajorriverreaches.

5. Developindicatorsofenvironmentaldeliveryshortfalls.

6. Undertakedetailedworkinconsultationwithenvironmentalwaterholdersto

understandtheimplicationsofshortfallsforarangeofcategoriesofenvironmentalwateringeventsunderdifferentclimatesequencestounderstandtheirimpactsonenvironmentaloutcomes.

Assessingmanagementoptions(Section2.4)

7. Asanimmediatepriority,jurisdictionsshoulddevelopacontingencyframeworkformakingdecisionsonhowtheywillmanageshortfallswhentheyoccurandagreeonkeysteps,rolesandresponsibilitiesinimplementingandcommunicatingthesedecisions.Thisshouldalsoincludeconsiderationofenvironmentaldeliveryshortfalls.

8. RevisitpreviousworkonBarmahChokebypassoptionsandundertakeafirst-cut

feasibilityanalysistobringforwardrevisedsetofoptionsinmid-2020.

9. DeterminetherateofsedimentationofBarmahChokeandfeasibilityofextractiontoincreasecapacity.

ModelCapability(Section2.5)

10. Asahighpriority,improvetherepresentationofenvironmentalwateringdemandsacrossthesystem,andtheabilitytoindicatewhenenvironmentalwaterordersarenotabletobemet.

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11. Undertakeanumberofgeneralmodelimprovementsincludingamorecontemporaryrepresentationof:Victorianallocationpolicies,modelledinflowsfromtheGoulburnandMurrumbidgeevalleys,LakeVictoriaoperatinglevels,rivertransmissionlossesintheBarmahChokeareaandtheinterimoperationalmeasuresintheLowerGoulburnrecentlyintroducedbyVictoria.

12. Reviewpotentialforoperationalanalysistoinformthepotentialinterpretationof

modelleddeliveryshortfalls.Timelines,reviewandresourcing(Section3)

13. ExtendthetimelinefortheprojectandplanitoveraperiodtillJune2021.

14. Includeregular6-9monthlyreviewsoftheprojectoutputsandplannedactivities.

15. MaintainatleastcurrentlevelsofresourcingwithinMDBAandjurisdictions.GovernanceandCommunication(Section4)

16. EnsurethatjurisdictionalrepresentativesontheCPWGhavetheskills,authorityandtimeavailabletoproperlymanagetheproject.

17. Asahighpriority,developasharedproactivecommunicationstrategyincludingkey

messages,clearrolesandresponsibilitiesforcommunicatingwithstakeholdersandaclearpathwayforstakeholderstoengage.

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Appendix A

Terms of Reference: Independent Panel for Capacity Project Review

OfficelocationsAdelaide,Albury-Wodonga,Canberra,Goondiwindi,Toowoomba

mdba.gov.au 1800230067 engagement@mdba.gov.au

24

Independent Panel for Capacity Project Review TERMS OF REFERENCE

Establishment1. At the Ministerial Council meeting held on 4 August 2019, it was agreed to

appoint an independent panel of experts to peer review the River Murray Capacity and Delivery Shortfall Project.

2. The panel members and terms of reference are to be agreed by BOC members for the Commonwealth, NSW, ACT, Victoria and South Australia.

PrimaryObjectives3. Provide independent advice and peer review to the joint governments regarding

the Capacity and Delivery Shortfall Project (the Project) and whether it is addressing the right tasks/work to the appropriate standard and timeframes.

RoleofthePanel4. To achieve its primary objective the Panel will be responsible for:

a. Providing independent advice on the Capacity and Delivery Shortfall Project work plan regarding scope, timeframes, resources and risk management.

b. Peer review of technical work and policy development to make sure it is on track and fit for purpose and to provide advice to governments and MDBA on options for the future management of shortfall risk. This includes providing advice on:

• the modelling approach, considering if the modelling is addressing the right questions/scenarios and whether the proposed approach is sound

• adequacy of data collected and analysed for this project

• adequacy of analyses and interpretation of collected data and modelling results

• adequacy of existing and proposed policy development to address the issues around deliverability of all water entitlements

5. In undertaking the assessment the Panel may engage and seek advice from other technical experts in relevant fields.

Murray-DarlingBasinAuthority

OfficelocationsAdelaide,Albury-Wodonga,Canberra,Goondiwindi,Toowoomba

mdba.gov.au 1800230067 engagement@mdba.gov.au

25

6. The operational issues for the 2019/20 water year will be managed through existing mechanisms specifically through WLWG and operational practice at MDBA and do not need to be reported on by the Panel.

Tenure7. The Panel will report to the next Ministerial Council meeting, nominally December

2019.

8. The Ministerial Council may seek further advice from the panel. In this case, the tenure, scope and deliverables of the Panel will be reviewed by BOC following the Ministerial Council meeting.

Deliverables/Milestones9. Expected project deliverables and timeframes are provided in 10. Table 1.

Table1:PanelDeliverablesandTimeframes

Deliverable2 Timeframe1

1. Initial report providing advice to CPWG on the scope of the Capacity and Delivery Shortfall Project including work plan and timeframes for project delivery.

Mid Oct 2019

2. Draft Ministerial Council report to BOC on the review of technical work and policy development of the project including advice on: • the modelling approach, considering if the modelling is addressing the

right questions/scenarios and whether the proposed approach is sound • adequacy of data collected and analysed for this project • adequacy of analyses and interpretation of collected data and modelling

results • adequacy of existing and proposed policy development to address the

issues around deliverability of all water entitlements • any other matters requested by the BOC and/or CPWG that fall within the

terms of reference

For Nov. BOC meeting

3. Report to Ministerial Council providing advice on the review of technical work and policy development of the project.

For Dec. MinCo meeting

1 Timeframes are subject to review, pending timing of budget approval and procurement process 2 If the Panel is extended, additional deliverables will be developed at that time.

Murray-DarlingBasinAuthority

OfficelocationsAdelaide,Albury-Wodonga,Canberra,Goondiwindi,Toowoomba

mdba.gov.au 1800230067 engagement@mdba.gov.au

26

Governancestructure11. The Panel shall report directly to the Ministerial Council through a written report

and presentation by the chair of the Panel.

12. The Panel will liaise with the CPWG and BOC regarding the draft report to the Ministerial Council.

Membership13. The Panel will consist of a chair and up to three additional independent experts

appointed by BOC, who will collectively bring the following skills:

a. Extensive knowledge and administrative experience in water resource management and policy development in the River Murray System.

b. Extensive knowledge of River Murray operations and hydrological processes, and their representation within river system planning models.

c. Experience in providing strategic direction to water resource management to address policy issues

d. Extensive knowledge of socio-economic and/or environmental issues associated with water management in the Southern Connected system

14. As approved by BOC the members of the panel from each group are as follows:

• Dr Jane Doolan (Chair) • Dianne Davidson • David Harriss • Dr Terry Hillman • Paul Simpson • Graeme Turner

BudgetandSupport15. The Panel has no independent budget.

16. The Panel may make requests through MDBA for funding additional expert advice, which would have to go through the existing budgetary processes of the Joint Governments.

17. In undertaking the assessment, the Panel shall liaise with the CPWG and may seek additional information from any relevant working groups established by the MDBA and jurisdictional governments.

18. MDBA will provide contractual and secretarial support.

Appendix B

Capacity and Delivery Shortfall Project Work Plan