Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute I NDABA A GRICULTURAL P OLICY R ESEARCH I NSTITUTE...

Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute

INDABA AGRICULTURAL POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Presented by Antony Chapoto, PhD

At

Reconciling agricultural growth with the

reduction of poverty

Policy dialogue on “Food Security & Nutrition in Zambia:

Issues, Gaps and Opportunities”Raddison Blu Hotel, Lusaka

August 14, 2014


Why this presentation

Highlight Zambia’s economic achievements and potential

Identify the opportunities arising from rising population (food demand) rapid urbanization rising urban incomes diverse and changing consumption patterns

Data on Zambia’s smallholder sector Potential value chains Conclusion

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Zambia’s Economic AchievementsZambia’s Economic Achievements

Zambia Classified as low-middle

income by World Bank GDP growing at 6% per annum Agricultural growth rate at 7%

- above 6% CAADP Goal Three consecutive maize

bumper harvest years

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BUT Persistently high rural poverty: ≈80%


Behind this backdrop Behind this backdrop

Zambia is characterized by Rapid population growth – 13 million High poverty rates ~ 80% of rural people poor High food and income inequality in urban areas High malnutrition rates of children under 5 years Rapid urbanization and increasing demand for

food Stagnant agricultural production


Under exploited potentialUnder exploited potential

Zambia is in a unique position Abundance of fertile land Water Generally, favorable climate for agricultural

production Growing population, rapid urbanization and rising

incomes creating more opportunities for smallholder farmers

Can easily become a ‘Breadbasket’ for Southern Africa


Rainfed AgricultureRainfed Agriculture

Zambian smallholders highly vulnerable to weather shocks

Ability to respond has improved Irrigation, winter maize Ag. policies stagnant

% of maize area planted to be harvested

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Poverty in ZambiaPoverty in Zambia

• Urban pop growing but rural population still high 64%

• Rural poverty rates stubbornly high

• Urban poverty declining • rising income• rising demand for a

variety of ag processed commodities

Source: GRZ’s Central Statistical Office and RALS 2012


Under nutrition a national problemUnder nutrition a national problem

53% of under 5 children exhibit signs of growth stunting in Zambia

Incidences of stunting are higher in rural Zambia than in urban: 56.6 % compared to 47.8% in urban.

Eastern and Northern Provinces have the highest number of children who are stunted provinces with the highest high levels of poverty and

relatively higher population densities

Source: LCMS 2006

Under 5 children exhibiting signs of growth stunting


Population growth and urbanization

Rising population and rapid urbanization Urban consumers income is growing but high

inequality Changing consumption patterns Diverse market opportunities

Are Zambia’s agricultural policies amenable to these opportunities?

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Urban Food Budget Shares For Key Products, 2007

Food Item ----------% expenditure share ----------

Lusaka Kitwe Mansa Kasama

Cereals & Staples 24.1 27.4 28.0 27.2

Dairy items 5.2 3.6 1.7 2.0

Meat & eggs 16.8 15.6 12.7 14.5

Fish 7.6 8.4 12.4 12.5

Vegetables 13.7 15.0 11.4 14.2

Fruits 3.6 4 3.7 4.0

Other Foods 16.4 17.1 16.9 18.4

Tobacco & alcohol 5.3 4.6 6.3 4.0

Food away from home

7.3 4.3 6.9 3.2

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Combined importance of meat, eggs, fish & dairy has surpassed the role of cereals/staples.

For poorest, cereals still dominate

Vegetables also important group, especially for poorest

Poultry & eggs have become very important & dominate the meats group outside Lusaka

Potential market: Potential market: Urban Food Consumption PatternsUrban Food Consumption Patterns


Share of different staples within total expenditureon staples by urban centre

Staple

---% Percent share by urban centre---


Maize 39.8 45.3 43.6 45.4

Wheat 40.7 36.1 17.9 17.6

Rice 8.7 8.8 8.2 12.1

Cassava 0.8 1.8 20.4 13.6

Other staples 10.0 8.0 10.0 11.4

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

• maize still dominates for lower income consumers, but wheat has become very important for all urban consumers.

• In Lusaka, wheat products dominate among staples except for the lowest expenditure groups

• Cassava important in Mansa & Kasama, esp. among low expenditure quintile of consumers

Potential market: Potential market: Urban Food Consumption PatternsUrban Food Consumption Patterns


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Wheat Product Consumption Trends - Zambia


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Urban Food Budget Shares Staples

Food Items

--------------------------% Expenditure Share -----------------------


low med high low med high low med high low med high

Staples 28.4 24.2 18.7 31.8 26.6 22 32.1 27.2 23 32.3 26.2 23.2

Maize 14.6 8.5 4.6 17.5 11.3 6.2 14.9 12.4 8.3 16.0 12.3 8.8

Rice 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.5 1.9 2.6 2.4 3.5 3.3 2.9

Wheat 9.2 10.7 9.6 9.1 10.0 10.8 2.0 5.6 8.4 1.7 4.7 7.9

Cassava .2 .2 .2 .6 .6 .3 9.9 4.0 1.9 7.4 2.8 1.1

Other staples 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.4 2.6 2.0 3.7 3.1 2.5

Meat and Eggs 14.1 18.0 18.6 11.9 17.0 19.2 7.9 15.0 16.5 10.2 14.7 18.6

Vegetables 17.6 12.9 9.8 18.6 14.4 10.5 13.1 11.2 9.5 17.2 14.1 11.4

All other expenditure 39.9 44.9 52.9 37.7 42.0 48.3 46.9 46.6 51.0 40.3 45.0 46.8

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


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Urban Food Budget Shares-Meat & Eggs

--------------------------------% Expenditure Share -----------------------------------

Lusaka Kitwe Mansa Food Items

low med high low med high low med high

Meat & eggs 14.0 18.0 18.6 11.8 16.8 19.1 7.9 14.9 16.5

Read Meat 5.2 7.4 8.1 3.7 5.6 7.2 1.5 4.4 6.0

Pork 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.5

Chicken/poultry 5.7 6.6 7.4 5.9 8.2 9.7 4.6 7.2 7.1

Eggs 1.7 2.7 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.3 0.8 2.4 2.9

Dairy items 3.4 5.8 6.7 2.0 3.7 5.7 0.6 1.8 3.5

Staples 28.4 24.2 18.7 31.8 26.6 22.0 32.1 27.2 23.0

Vegetables 17.6 12.9 9.8 18.6 14.4 10.5 13.1 11.2 9.5

All other expenditure 36.6 39.1 46.2 35.8 38.5 42.7 46.3 44.9 47.5

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Principal Crop Zones

Maize-led economy

Surplus Maize – Central and South

Surplus Cassava – North


Livelihood Zones

Zambia has potential for diversity

For most recent livelihood zone report see http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/ZM_LZ_descriptions_2014.pdf


Evidence that many smallholder households are land constrained

-- 25% have less than 0.5 ha of land

-- 58% indicate there is no unallocated land in their village

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Smallholder farmers land constrained Smallholder farmers land constrained


Percent of smallholder that say “There is NO land available”

<20%20-40%41-60%61-80%>81%


Source: FSRP (2009). Agricultural Surveys – Voice of smallholder farmers

Population Density and Distribution in Zambia, 2007

Settlements concentrated on

areas with infrastructure

Considerable land is covered by water, national parks, GMA

Hence the paradox of land constraints in

midst of plenty

Land Utilization Follows Land Utilization Follows Infrastructure DevelopmentInfrastructure Development

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Land constraints

Rural settlement follows public investment in rural infrastructure

Land constraints in a land-abundant country is not a paradox economically viable arable land requires access

to basic services, water, schools, roads, and markets.

The basic public investments to make settlement economically viable have yet been made in many areas of Zambia


Food crops production trends21

Maize and Cassava production

Source: CFS, various years


Food crops production trends22

Groundnuts, Sweet potato and Beans production



Negatively affecting Crop DiversificationNegatively affecting Crop Diversification23



Average yields of key commodities compared to global average

Source: CFS datasets, various years with Global figures obtained from COMESA

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Livestock Ownership among Smallholder farmers

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Source: RALS (2012): Note HH=household

Of 1,417,992 smallholder farmers 21.2% own cattle25.3% own goats14.7% own pigs 0.6% own sheep76% own village chicken


Average Number of livestock Owned among Smallholder Livestock Households

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Source: RALS (2012)

National average of livestock owned among smallholder households


Cassava


Zambia Cassava Production

most important crop grown after maize produced by small-scale farmers

Current production >1million tons/year >80% of households in the cassava belt rely on

cassava as a staple especially the poorest Great potential

Two initiatives started to enhance cassava production and utilization Root and Tuber Improvement Programme Acceleration of Cassava Utilization Task Force Cassava Strategy Plan for the sector


Zambia Cassava Production


Urban Food Budget Shares For Key Products, 2007

Food Item ----------% expenditure share ----------

Lusaka Kitwe

Mansa Kasama

Cereals & Staples 24.1 27.4 28.0 27.2

Dairy items 5.2 3.6 1.7 2.0

Meat & eggs 16.8 15.6 12.7 14.5

Fish 7.6 8.4 12.4 12.5

Vegetables 13.7 15.0 11.4 14.2

Fruits 3.6 4 3.7 4.0

Other Foods 16.4 17.1 16.9 18.4

Tobacco & alcohol 5.3 4.6 6.3 4.0

Food away from home

7.3 4.3 6.9 3.2

Total 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0

• Cheap effective source of vitamins, minerals & calories.

• Positive impact on other agro production systems (re investment potential).

• Potential avenue for poverty reduction through ag for land-constrained farmers

• BUT, land constrained farmers tend to be poor in income and assets (including education)

• And hort. production requires high use of inputs such as cash inputs and knowledge

Horticulture: An option for smallscale producers?


Horticulture not yet playing a major role for most land-constrained farmers

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1 2 3 4 5

Quintile of land holding

Sh

are

selli

ng

Share of hhs selling ffv and maize, by quintile of land holding

FFV

Maize


Share selling ffv and maize, by quintile of land holdingKENYA

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1 2 3 4 5

Quintile of land holding

Sh

are

sellin

g

FFV

Maize

Playing a much larger role in Kenya


Conclusion

Zambia has: potential to have broad-based economic growth; potential to address the stubbornly high rural

poverty rates and high malnutrition; potential to be the ‘breadbasket for the region’; But: Policies should evolve and take advantage

of the many agricultural opportunities arising from the rising food demand, rising urban incomes and the changing consumption patterns.

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