Increasing Globalization of the Gas Industry and What it all Means
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17 th International Conference and Exhibition on Liquefied Natural Gas – LNG 17 Houston, 16 th to 19 th April 2013 Increasing Globalization of the Gas Industry and What it all Means LNG 17 Briefing for the Financial Community New York, NY January 15, 2013
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17 th International Conference and Exhibition on Liquefied Natural Gas – LNG 17 Houston, 16 th to 19 th April 2013. Increasing Globalization of the Gas Industry and What it all Means LNG 17 Briefing for the Financial Community New York, NY January 15, 2013. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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17th International Conference and Exhibition on Liquefied Natural Gas – LNG 17 Houston, 16th to 19th April 2013
Increasing Globalization of the Gas Industry and What it all MeansLNG 17 Briefing for the Financial CommunityNew York, NYJanuary 15, 2013
Natural Gas – the Global Foundation Fuel
“Not surprisingly, the worldwide energy industry has embraced natural gas as a ‘foundation’ fuel for the 21st century.”
Soon to be published, “Energy for the 21st Century: Opportunities and Challenges for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)” by Susan L. Sakmar, University of Houston Law Center
JapanJapan
Argentina
Lithuania
East Africa/ Tanzania /Mozambique
USA
Panama Canal
Australia
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Natural Gas – the Global Foundation Fuel
US Gas Demand Could Stack Up by 2020
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CAGR = 0.5% CAGR = 2.1%
* The lower range of electric and industrial demand growth is based on AEO 2012 reference case while the higher range is based on AEO 2012 High Carbon Dioxide Emission Fee case and High Economic Growth cases, respectively. This is an un-integrated, exogenous demand scenario for each sector.
Including LNG exports, US gas consumption could grow between 6 and 15 Bcfd
US Gas Consumption Scenarios – 2020*
As shale grows to
supply 50% of an 82+ Bcfd market, what
will be the price impact of
increasing shale costs and demand
growth?
Christopher Goncalves, BRG - Berkeley Research Group. 'Drivers and Disruptions: The challenge of rebalancing global LNG markets', presented at the CWC World LNG Summit 2012
The Global Gas Market is Growing Dramatically
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
No
. of
Co
un
trie
s
mm
tpa
Volume of LNG Trade
No. of LNG Exporting Countries (right axis)
No. of LNG Importing Countries (right axis)
Source: 2011 IGU LNG Study
2012 LNG Trade Flows – 240 mtpa MarketOver 30% of flows were “flexible” (less than 4-year contract term)
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Markets
LNG
Pipeline
NBP & Other Hubs
Brent (85%), NBP (15%)
Long Term: JCCShort Term:
NBP/Other Hubs
Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin
V.V. Rao, Galway Group LP. ‘East Africa and Southeast Asia: The Next Industry “Game Changers”?’, presented at the CWC World LNG Summit 2012
2020 LNG Trade Flows – up to a 400 mtpa marketMany new supply side and market entrants
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Markets
LNG
Pipeline
NBP & Other Hubs
Brent (85%), NBP (15%)
Long Term: JCCShort Term:
NBP/Other Hubs
Henry Hub/ NYMEX
Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin
New LNG Supplies
V.V. Rao, Galway Group LP. ‘East Africa and Southeast Asia: The Next Industry “Game Changers”?’, presented at the CWC World LNG Summit 2012
Strong Gas Demand Growth
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World gas demand (bcma)CAGR
2010 – 2020
0.1%Europe
0.8%Russia and Central Asia
2.9%South America
4.4%Middle East & Africa
3.3%Asia (excluding China)
TOTAL 2.6%
2.1%North America
11.2%China
Source: IEA, BG GroupBetsy Spomer, BG Group. 'The outlook for LNG: Are the dynamics changing?', presented at the CWC World LNG Summit 2012
LNG: Outpacing Gas Industry Growth
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
LNG as a share of global gas
69%
22%
9%
2010 global gas consumption
International trade ~ 30%
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Source: Actual – CEDIGAZ (2011), Outlook – Wood Mackenzie (2012)Betsy Spomer, BG Group. 'The outlook for LNG: Are the dynamics changing?', presented at the CWC World LNG Summit 2012
LNG
PipelineDomestic
consumption
The LNG Supply Challenge
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Qatar
LNG trade forecast
Australia
Supply- demand gap
Supply: existing and under construction
Source: BG Group interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (Aug 2012)Betsy Spomer, BG Group. 'The outlook for LNG: Are the dynamics changing?', presented at the CWC World LNG Summit 2012
175 mtpa
What is LNG 17?
In 2013 LNG 17 will be the world’s largest gas industry event – 5,000 attendees from 80 countries
Alternates every three years between LNG producing and consuming countries
World’s largest conference on LNG
Literally hundreds of publicly traded companies from around the world will be speaking, exhibiting and attending
LNG 17 – the exhibition
17th International Conference and Exhibition on Liquefied Natural Gas – LNG 17 Houston, 16th to 19th April 2013
Increasing Globalization of the Gas Industry and What it all MeansLNG 17 Briefing for the Financial CommunityNew York, NYJanuary 15, 2013
