Incorporating Environmental Costs in Decision Making
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Transcript of Incorporating Environmental Costs in Decision Making
Incorporating Environmental Costs in Decision Making
Gordon Sparks – U of S / VEMAX
Nicole Allen – M.Sc. Candidate / VEMAX
September 29, 2010Saskatchewan Ministry of Highways andInfrastructure
Acknowledgements
•SMHI▫Ron Gerbrandt▫Dave Stearns▫Tom Davies
•HJR Asphalt Ltd.•Battle River Asphalts•VEMAX
▫Paul Christenson▫Darian Brown
The Overall Objective
•Develop a framework to incorporate full costs (economic and environmental) into Saskatchewan Ministry of Highways and Infrastructure (SMHI) decision making
The Specific Project Objective
•As part of the innovation agenda SMHI tendered a hot-in-place recycling contract▫Explore if HIR technology could offer
reduced life cycle costs and reduced environmental impact Reduction of input materials (eg. aggregate)
Why is this important for SMHI?
•Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment GHG Bill 126
&
•SMHI Innovation Framework
What is GHG Bill 126 ?
• An Act respecting the Management and Reduction of Greenhouse Gases and Adaptation to Climate Change, including:
▫(i) measurement of GHG output
▫(ii) 20% reduction in GHG thresholds by 2020
▫(iii) carbon compliance payments
▫(iv) carbon offset credits
▫(v) a technology fund to subsidize investments in low carbon technologies
What is the Innovation Framework ?•SMHI is in the process of developing and
implementing an “Innovation Framework” - the objective of which is to accelerate the integration of innovative ideas into standard practices for the Ministry
•Implementing new solutions and ideas that will lower economic and environmental costs
This Current Project -
•Addresses objectives for both Bill 126 & the Innovation Framework -
The Problem -
•Putting an economic value to environmental issues is a complex problem and includes high levels of inherent uncertainty
•When used in the context of decision making, trade-offs need to be made when comparing the economic and environmental costs
Part of the Solution – Decision Analysis
•Decision Analysis - process developed for problems that are:▫Important▫Complex▫Have inherent uncertainty
•Decision Analysis provides a way to “explicitly” deal with complexity and incorporate and quantify the inherent uncertainty
Decision Analysis Basics
•Decision analysis is an in-depth subject, however, some key concepts and principles are provided below -
Decision Analysis - modelInfluence Model
Requisite Model
A model, agreed upon by all participants, representing all variables and influences for a
problem
Decision Analysis - excelExcel Spreadsheet Model & Data
Decision Analysis – LCC profile
$
tt0 t2 t3 t4 tn
……..
t1
….
Initial costs
Annual O&M costs
Periodic repair costs
Decommission costs
i = 5% c.a.
Life cycle cost profile and discounted cash flow calculations
Decision Analysis – LCC uncertainty
$
tt0 t2 t3 t4 tn
……..
t1
….
i = 5% c.a.
Role of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
Decision Analysis – tornado plot
Present Worth of Life Cycle Costs (PWLCC) in $’s
Nominal value
Initial costs
Periodic repair costs (t2, t4)
Low value High value
Annual O&M costs
Periodic repair costs (t3)
Periodic repair cycle (t3)
Periodic repair cycle (t2, t4)
Decommission costs
Decommission timing (tn)
üüüüü
A Tornado plot and selection of variables
Decision Analysis - probabilities
$
tt0 t2 t3 t4 tn
……..
t1
….
i = 5% c.a.
Role of probability and simulation
Decision Analysis – risk profile
Present Worth of Life Cycle Costs (PWLCC) in $’s
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rob
abili
ty
100%
0%
50%
75%
25%
Comparing risk profiles and expected values
Expectedvalue
95% ConfidenceInterval
Role of Decision Analysis
•Applying the full environmental costs to decision making is an important, complex problem with a high level of uncertainty▫Additionally this analysis needs to be done
in a way that is systematic, rational and transparent
the type of problem thatdecision analysis can help to solve
Saskatchewan ExperienceHot-in-place Recycling
HIR Background
•The first technology that this framework was applied to was HIR
•As part of the innovation agenda SMHI tendered a hot-in-place recycling contract
•Contracted with Battle River Asphalt Equipment Ltd. and HJR Asphalt Ltd. to complete a pilot segment of 70 lane km
Battle River Asphalt NXG 9000 – Recycle Train
•Derivative of 20 years of HIR experience
•4 stage system - material is heated and removed in lifts of less than 15mm▫Greater productivity▫Less damage to materials
less oxidization and damage to aggregate as material is soft at milling
▫More consistent temperatures in mix▫Ability to meet specification in difficult
conditions
HIR Equipment
ProduceHMAC(Plant)
Produce Bitumen
(Refinery)
Dilute Crude Oil(Facility)
ProduceHeavy Crude Oil
(Oil Well)
Transport Bitumen(Truck)
Transport Blended Crude
(Pipeline)
Transport Crude Oil
(Truck)
Bitumen
ProduceOil
(Refinery)
Produce Crude Oil(Oil Well)
Transport Crude Oil(Pipeline)
Transport Burner Oil
(Truck)Burner Oil
Produce Diesel
(Refinery)
ProduceLight Crude Oil
(Oil Well)
Transport Light Crude(Pipeline)
Transport Diesel(Truck)
Diesel
ExtractLimestone(Quarry)
ProduceHydrated Lime
(Plant)
Transport Limestone
(Truck)
Transport Hydrated Lime
(Truck)
ProduceAggregate(Crushing)
Transport Aggregate
(Truck)
Lime
Aggregate
Produce Pavemen
t(Paving)
Transport HMAC(Truck)
HMAC
Mobilization
Transport Equipment
(Truck)
Produce Reclaim
(Mill)
Transport Reclaim(Truck)
Reclaim
Reclaim Stock Pile
Processing
Transport
Upstream Processing
Upstream Transport
Process Boundary
Conventional HMAC
ProduceHMAC(HIR)
Transport Rejuvenator
(Rail)
Transport Crude Oil(Pipeline)
Transport Rejuvenato
r(Truck)
Produce Rejuvenator
(Refinery)
Produce Crude Oil(Oil Well)
Rejuvenator
Produce Propane
(Refinery)
Produce Natural Gas(Gas Well)
Transport Natural Gas
(Pipeline)
Transport Propane(Truck)
Propane
Produce Diesel
(Refinery)
ProduceLight Crude Oil
(Oil Well)
Transport Light Crude(Pipeline)
Transport Diesel(Truck)
Diesel
Produce Corrective HMAC
(Asphalt Plant)
Transport Corrective HMAC
(Truck)
Corrective HMAC
Produce Pavemen
t(Paving)
HMAC
Mobilization
Transport Equipment
(Truck)
Processing
Transport
Upstream Processing
Upstream Transport
Process Boundary
HIR HMAC
Comparison of Various Pavement Design Alternatives
•Initially looked at a project with three types of HMAC▫Conventional HMAC▫HMAC with reclaim material▫Rubberized HMAC
•HIR HMAC Project– Data Collection in progress
Illustrative Project Results
Requisite model-Full Initial Cost of HMAC ($/t)
Project Spreadsheet
Risk Profiles
Cum
ula
tive
Pro
babi
lity
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Total Initial Cost – Including Cost of Carbon ($/tonne HMAC)
Alternative 4
Overall Objective of this Project
•The development and application of an analysis framework which is:▫Rational,▫Systematic, and ▫Transparent
•That is capable of quantifying economic and environmental costs, including expected values and uncertainty, associated with alternative pavement rehabilitation methods