Incorporating Climate Change, Risk, and Resilience into ...
Transcript of Incorporating Climate Change, Risk, and Resilience into ...
Incorporating Climate Change, Risk, and Resilience into Hydrologic Design
Procedures for Transportation Infrastructure
Roger Kilgore, Kilgore Consulting and Management Brian Beucler, Robert Kafalenos, Joe Krolak, and Cynthia Nurmi,
Federal Highway Administration George Herrmann, Desert Sky Engineering
Wilbert O. Thomas, Jr., Michael Baker International David Thompson, Thompson Hydrologics
NAS Conference September 16-18, 2015
Washington, DC
Hydraulic Engineering Circular 17 (HEC-17)
Title: Highways in the River Environment- Floodplains, Extreme Events, Risk, and Resilience. Part of FHWA’s anticipated implementation plan for the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard. Intent: Best available and actionable engineering and scientific data and approaches.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction 2. Federal Floodplain Policy 3. Riverine Flood Events 4. Risk and Resilience 5. Climate Change 6. Analysis Framework 7. Case Studies
Hydrologic Methods: Statistical
100
where:
0.52 0.24
Q100 = estimate of the 100-year peak, ft3/s
Can this approach accommodate watershed or climate changes? Can climate models provide precipitation?
A = watershed drainage area, mi2
P = mean annual precipitation, in
Hydrologic Methods: Rainfall Runoff
Q=CiA where:
Q = estimated peak discharge, ft3/s C = runoff coefficient, dimensionless i = average rainfall intensity, in/h A = watershed drainage area, acres Same questions…different answers…
Chapter 4: Risk and Resilience
Risk: Combined effect of consequence and probability of failure. Resilience: “adapt” “recover” from failure. Examine “What is failure” Violation of a standard or criteria Delay or inconvenience Property/infrastructure damage Loss of life
Consequences to Action and No Action
No Trend in Floods HO
Trend in Floods HA
Do Not Adapt
1-α β Type II Error (under-prepare)
Adapt α Type I Error (over-invest)
1-β
Chapter 5: Climate Change
Future projections (models and scenarios) Precipitation: average annual versus 1 hour 50 year event. Data sources
Chapter 6: Analysis Framework
Levels of effort Recommended steps Best available and actionable data and methods.
Chapter 7: Case Studies
Examples to illustrate concepts Lessons learned: Cumulative
conservativism Approach to
uncertainty What is important?