In the Aftermath of Copenhagen - Schwarze

8/3/2019 In the Aftermath of Copenhagen - Schwarze

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In the aftermath of Copenhagen

Reimund Schwarze

Panel presentation at the IGEL conference workshop 2010 session:

The Future of Carbon


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Content

1. International Climate Negotiations2. The Copenhagen Accord

3. Pledges by developed and developing countries

4. Success or failure?

5. Events of the year


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International Climate Negotiations

1. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs to avoiddangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (Art. 2)

Principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (Art. 3)

194 signatories, Organ: Conference of the Parties (COP)

2. Kyoto-Protocol

Legally binding commitments of developed countries (Annex B) to emissionsreductions of 6 GHGs until 2012, marked-based instruments (IET, CDM, JI)

190 signatories, Organ: COP serving as the meeting of the Parties to theKyoto Protocol (CMP)

3. Bali-Roadmap Ad hoc Working Group Long Term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA)

Ad hoc Working Group Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)

4. Gleneagles-Processes (G8+x)

Heiligendamm, Toyaku, LAquila,


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The Copenhagen Accord

1. 2C-goal

2. Deep cuts in global emissions "as soon as possible"

3. Voluntary commitments to emissions targets for 2020in developed countries (Annex I)

4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)in developing countries (Non-Annex I)

Domestic measurement, reporting and verification (mrv), ifnotinternationally funded

Reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)

5. Scaled up, new and additional funding

$30 billion from 2010-2012, $100 billion per year by 2020

Copenhagen Green Climate Fund/High-Level Panel


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Developed countries pledges

Annex I countryKyoto Target

(baseyear 1990)Aired 2020 reduction

target before CopenhagenCopenhagen Accord (as

of 2/4/2010)

CopenhagenAccord

(baseyear 1990)Australia +8% 5-15-25% below 2000 5-15-25% below 2000 -2 to -22%

Canada -6% 20% below 2006 17% below 2005 3%

Croatia -5% 6% above 1990 5% below 1990 +6%

EU27 -8% 20-30% below 1990 20-30% below 1990 -20 to -30%

Iceland +10% 15% below 1990 30% below 1990 -30%Japan -6% 25% below 1990 25% below 1990 -25%

New Zealand 0% 10-20% below 1990 10-20% below 1990 -10 to -20%

Norway +1% 30-40% below 1990 30-40% below 1990 -30 to -40%

Russian Fed. 0% 10-25% below 1990 15-25% below 1990 -15 to -25%

Switzerland -8% 20-30% below 1990 -20 to -30%Ukraine 0% 20% below 1990 -20%

USA -7% 17-20% below 2005 17% below 2005 -3%


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Developing countries pledges

Non Annex I country Copenhagen Accord (as of 2/4/2010)

Brazil 36.1-38.9% below BAU

China 40-45% below 2005 per unit GDP

Costa Rica significant deviation from BAU; long-term carbon neutrality

India 20-25% below 2005 per unit GDPIndonesia 26-41% below BAU

Maldives 100%

Mexico 30% below BAU

South Korea 30% below BAU

Singapore 16% below BAU

South Africa 34% below BAU


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EU 27

EU27s low ambition target of 20% below 1990

would not meet the proposed long-term target of80-95% below 1990 by 2050

Inadequate

Role model

Medium

Sufficient


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Developed countries aggregate

Developed countries aggregate reductions7-14% below 1990 levels by 2020does not meet 25-40% range consistent with

lowest stabilization scenario in IPCC


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Russian Federation

Surplus emission allowances from Kyoto periodfor all developed countriesestimated to be 9 -11 GtCO2eq


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India

Target of 20 to 25% below 2005emissions per unit GDPequivalent to business as usual


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China

Target of 40 to 45% below 2005emissions per unit GDPequivalent to business as usual


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Brazil

Roughly half of emissions from forestry

Reduction of 36.1-38.9% below BAU,majority from reduction in deforestation


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Can the 2C-goal be achieved?

Source: M. Meinshausen, www.primap.org


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Summing up

1. Copenhagen Accord goal of limiting warming tobelow 2C is not consistentwith current 2020 emission reduction targets

2. Developed country aggregate

does not meet 25-40% below 1990 rangeconsistent with lowest stabilization scenario in IPCC

3. Surplus emission allowances and forestry accountingcan significantly impact the functioning

of global emissions trading4. To achieve stated Copenhagen Accord goal,

countries should adopt longer term emission reductiongoals (at least 50% below 1990 globally by 2050)


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Success or failure?

Important step ahead:

Defining the meaning of Art. 2 UNFCCC (2C-goal)

First time all major emitters involved

but major weaknesses: Purely political decision, not legally binding

Voluntary pledge and review system

Lacking verification for unilateral activities in

developing countries Missing linkages to global emission trading

Missing long-term targets (2050), no peaking year:

inconsistent with 2C goal!


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OUT LOOK: Events of the year

9.- 11. Apr, Bonn, Climate talks (procedural aspects)

2.- 4. May, Bonn, Petersberg Conference,

(Meeting of environmental ministers of 50 nations;chaired by Merkel and Caldern)

31. May - 11. Jun, Bonn (subsidiary bodies)

29. Nov - 10. Dec, Mexico City, COP16 & CMP 6TIME TO ACTDAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

00:00:00:00

In the Aftermath of Copenhagen - Schwarze

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