In search of a consistent Risk Assessment Framework for organisms

Society for Risk Analysis ANZ conference 2013

Office of the Gene Technology Regulator

Andrea Robold and Paul Keese

We wish to acknowledge the persons who made the photographs or other images used in this presentation freely available on the internet .

When do risk assessment of organisms?• When someone would like to release a new or modified organism, eg

GMO or synthetic organism

• When someone would like to introduce an exotic organism to Australia, eg exotic pasture species, ornamental plants or a biological control agent

• When we have to assess possible risk to native organisms, crops or domestic animals, eg during a disease outbreak

• Namely, when there are uncertainty and a valuable environment.

Risk assessment of organisms

Assess the likelihood and consequences by considering

• the organism and

• the environment potentially affected by the

organism and

• their interaction.

Likelihood assessmentInvasiveness of the organism.establish – reproduce – spread

Susceptibility of the environment to invasion.resource availability and suitability – presence of stressors

Risk assessment of organisms

Invasiveness

SusceptibilityEnvironment

Organism

Likelihood

Degree of invasion

Consequence assessmentImpact of the organism.

Sensitivity of the environment.

Risk assessment of organisms

SensitivityEnvironment

ImpactOrganism

Consequence

Degree of harm

Risk assessment of organisms

Invasiveness

Vulnerability to damage

SensitivitySusceptibilityEnvironment

Capability to do damage

ImpactOrganism

Likelihood Consequence

Risk assessment of organisms

Invasiveness

Vulnerability to damage

SensitivitySusceptibilityEnvironment

Capability to do damage

ImpactOrganism

Likelihood Consequence

RiskDegree of invasion

Degree of harm

Acknowledgements

OGTR staff and

members of the National Post-Border Weed Risk Management Forum

Prof Lute Bos – Plant Viruses, unique and intriguing pathogens (1999)

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