In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth - World...
Transcript of In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth - World...
Bien A. Ganapin National Planning and Policy Staff
NEDA DIOC
23 October 2012
In Pursuit of
Inclusive
Growth
THE PHILIPPINE DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011-2016 AND ITS ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Inclusive growth
Growth that reduces poverty, including achievement of Millennium Development Goals
Higher economic growth for the next six years
Growth that generates mass employment
Plan Vision:
35.8 32.2
27.5 27.4 25.3 26.8
26.3
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1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
average growth rate for 3 years
Source: Poverty incidence is based on author’s estimates using FIES, various years; GDP growth rates is based on NSCB
(right axis) (left axis)
Toward Inclusive Growth
The Plan focuses on
5 Key Strategies
Boost competitiveness
to generate employment
Improve access to financing
Invest massively in physical
infrastructure
Promote transparent and
responsive governance
Develop human resources through
improved social services
• Stable macroeconomic environment • Ecological integrity • Education, science and technology • Peace process and national security
Good Governance
• Institutionalized accountability
• Promoting a tradition of transparency
• Enhanced citizen’s participation in
governance
• Special governance focus: Mindanao
Priority sectors
o Tourism
o BPO
oHousing
o Logistics
o Shipbuilding
o Agro-industry
Boosting Competitiveness
Key goals for Finance: Improve access to financing and deepen the Financial System
Promote a regionally responsive and inclusive financial system through effective savings generation and institutionalized resource mobilization Develop an enabling environment for long-term savings and investments Strengthen the governance framework of the financial system in line with best practices and standards Establish strong legal framework for financial sector development
Finance Policy
• Ensure access to quality education
• Enhance public health protection through
greater access to government health services
• Expansion of conditional cash transfer program
Develop human resources
Security, Justice and Peace
• Continue to upgrade capabilities to defend
national interests
• Pursue just and lasting peace
• Strengthen Rule of Law
• Advance and protect human rights
• Promote welfare of men and women in the
frontline
Climate Change Adaptation
and Mitigation
• Ensure the conservation and protection of
natural resources
• Improve environmental quality for a
cleaner and healthier environment
• Manage risks and threats from natural
calamities
Rapid growth
(growth rate, in %, at constant prices)
* Approved by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on June 26, 2012.
Actual 2012
Assumption*
2010 2011 Q1
2012
Q2
2012 Low High
GDP 7.6 3.9 6.3 5.9 5.0 6.0
GNI 8.2 3.2 5.8 5.6 4.4 5.4
Good Governance
• Mandatory budget disclosure of agencies
• Consultative budget preparation process
• Anti-corruption drives in revenue-generating
agencies through RATE, RATS, & RIPS
• Formulation of the Development Roadmap
for Minadanao
• Governance reforms and local and
international recognitions
25%
35%
5%
17%
1% 17%
Economic Services
Social Services
Defense
General Public Services
Net Lending
Debt Service
Develop human resources
Quality Education
• Reduce classroom gap to zero in 2013 (instead of
2015)
• Close textbook and teacher gap by 2012 and 2013,
respectively
• Install support mechanisms for basic education
system
• Align vocational and tertiary education to support
industrial development and job generation agenda
Social Protection
• Cover all indigent households in 4Ps by 2016
• Cover all Q1 and Q2 households (poorest 40% of
population) under universal healthcare by 2016
thereby attaining Health MDGs
Housing Program
• Provide decent affordable housing to informal settlers
2012 2013 Growth
Total Budget (in Php bn) 1,816.0 2,006.0 10.5%
Capital Outlay 18.1% 18.9% 15.7%
Infrastructure and Other Capital Outlays
13.9% 14.8% 17.5%
Budget Share
Proposed 2013 Budget • Infrastructure Development Program o Reducing the High Cost of Doing Business: Energy,
Transport, and Connectivity
Massive investment in
physical infrastructure
Challenge:
A more inclusive growth
Selected Employment Indicators, Philippines
Source: National Statistics Office
Items
2011 2012
Jan Apr July FY Jan Apr July
Labor Force Growth Rate (%) 1.0 3.1 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.4 1.2
Employment Growth Rate (%) 0.8 4.0 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 1.3
Employment Generated (‘000) 292 1,407 869 1,157 1,101 1,021 478
Unemployment Rate (%) 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.2 6.9 7.0
Underemployment Rate (%) 19.4 19.4 19.1 19.3 18.8 19.3 22.7
Challenge:
Risks to Growth
• Struggling global economic recovery
• Intensification of the Euro Area
problem and geopolitical uncertainty
• El Niño phenomenon
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0
5
10
15
20
25
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1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
average growth rate for 3 years poverty incidence
Source: Poverty incidence is based on author’s estimates using FIES, various years; GDP growth rates is based on NSCB
2012
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(right axis) (left axis)
Toward Inclusive Growth