Improving rental growth is on course · MARKETVIEW Q3 2015 AUSTRALIA RETAIL -5%. MARKETVIEW Q3 2015...
Transcript of Improving rental growth is on course · MARKETVIEW Q3 2015 AUSTRALIA RETAIL -5%. MARKETVIEW Q3 2015...
MARKETVIEW
Improving rental growth is on course
Australia Retail, Q3 2015
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 1
4.5% y-o-y Aug
Figure 1: Large format retail centre vacancy rate by selected states
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
93.9 Sep 0.7% y-o-y Sep 5.8% Sep
KEY POINTS
Retail trade has been growing at a consistent
pace this year, between 4%-5%, with Q315
results estimated at 4.5% y-o-y (3mma).
Yield compression was largely driven by
improving rental growth expectations across
the retail sectors, in addition to lower
required returns for investors. The healthier
retail environment (compared to 2011-
2012) is driving investors towards retail
investments.
Large format retail is experiencing an
increase in tenant diversity.
The pace of first time foreign brand entrants
and expansions has held up so far this year,
with more than 30 stores opening or
securing a lease.
Total returns for retail have outperformed
both office and industrial over the past 25
years. Going forward, we expect retail to
also provide the strongest risk adjusted
returns over the short-term.
0%
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Vacancy R
ate
NSW VIC QLD
MARKETVIEW
DIVERGENCE IN PERFORMANCE
AUSTRALIA IS A HOTSPOT FOR FOREIGN
BRANDS
•
•
•
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 2
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Figure 2: Foreign brand retailers’ penetration rates in selected APAC markets
*Number of foreign retailers operating in a country as identified by CBRE divided by total foreign retailers in APAC region
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
0%
10%
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30%
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Chin
a
Sin
gapore
Hong K
ong
Japan
Mala
ysi
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Kore
a
Taiw
an
Thailand
Indonesia
Philip
pin
es
India
Austr
alia
Vie
tnam
New
Zeala
nd
Cam
bodia
MARKETVIEW
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 3
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Figure 3: Retail prime yields by type
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
STRONG YIELD COMPRESSION
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Yie
lds (
%)
Regional Sub Regional Neighbourhood CBD Prime Large Format
MARKETVIEW
RETAIL TRADE GROWTH STABILISING
DEVELOPMENT RETURNS DRIVING SUPPLY
FOREIGN RETAILERS – THE NEW ANCHOR
TENANTS?
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 4
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Figure 5: Regional Centre Supply by State
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Figure 4: Retail Sales and Regional Centre Rents
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Figure 6: Major Regional Centre Supply Pipeline
Regional Shopping Centres
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Reta
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upply
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NSW VIC QLD SA WA ACT
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Retail Sales Regional Centre Rents
Centre Name State Development
Type
Current
Status
Total
sqm (net
increase)
Completion
Quarter
Karrinyup
Shopping Centre WA Extension DA Approved
49,903 Dec-19
Pacific Square
QLD Extension
Under
Construction
49,000 Jun-16
Eastland Shopping
Centre VIC Extension
Under
Construction
47,000 Jun-16
Westfield
Chatswood NSW Extension
Under
Construction
45,832 Mar-16
Narellan Town
Centre NSW Extension
Under
Construction
40,200 Jun-17
Chadstone
Shopping Centre VIC Extension
Under
Construction
30,000 Jun-17
MARKETVIEW
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 5
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Regional Shopping Centres
RENT GROWTH SOFT, BUT IMPROVING
YIELDS APPROACH CYCLICAL LOW
Figure 7: Regional Centre Key Stats
Figure 9: Average National Regional Centre Yield
Figure 8: Regional Centre Transactions by State
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Note: There were no major transactions in H115
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
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YTD
Annual Sale
s V
olu
me (
$m
)
NSW VIC QLD SA WA ACT
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Yie
ld (
%)
Capital Value
Qtr Ann % Qtr Ann Bp
Change
Ann %
NSW 2,158$ 1.0% 5.38% -32 6.9%
VIC 1,664$ 2.9% 5.52% -14 5.6%
QLD 1,605$ 2.6% 5.63% -9 4.2%
WA 1,718$ -2.4% 5.63% -13 -0.2%
SA 1,275$ 0.0% 6.25% 0 0.0%
Aust 1,613$ 0.7% 5.80% -14 3.5%
Indicative Rents (per
sq m) Yield
MARKETVIEW
DEMAND REMAINS SOFT, HOWEVER RENT
GROWTH RE-EMERGING
DDS UNDERPERFORMANCE A CONTINUING
DRAG ON CENTRE PERFORMANCE
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 6
Figure 11: Sub-Regional Retail Supply by State
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Figure 10: Retail Sales and Sub-Regional Centre Rents
Figure 12: Major Sub-Regional Supply Pipeline
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Sub-Regional Shopping Centres
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
(50,000)
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upply
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NSW VIC QLD SA WA ACT
Centre Name State Development
Type Current Status
Total
sqm
Completion
Quarter
The Nova Centre VIC New DA Approved
22,000 Feb-18
Tahmoor Town
Centre NSW Extension Under Construction
15,258 Sep-17
Centro Halls
Head WA Extension Under Construction
10,910 Mar-16
Stockland
Caloundra QLD Extension DA Approved
9,012 Dec-17
Warriewood
Square NSW Extension Under Construction
8,015 Jun-16
Parabanks
Shopping Centre SA Refurbishment Under Construction 7,000 Jun-18
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-2%
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Sub-Regional Rent Growth Retail Sales Growth
MARKETVIEW
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 7
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Sub-Regional Shopping Centres
DEVELOPMENT TO DRIVE RETURNS IN A LOW
RENT GROWTH ENVIRONMENT
YIELDS APPROACHING CYCLICAL LOW
Figure 15: Average National Sub-Regional Yield
Figure 13: Sub-Regional Centre Key Stats
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Figure 14: Sub-Regional Transactions by State
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YTD
Annual Sale
s V
olu
me (
$m
)
NSW VIC QLD
SA WA ACT
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Yie
ld (
%)
Capital Value
Qtr Ann % Qtr Ann Bp
Change
Ann %
NSW 1,103$ 1.0% 6.15% -71 12.6%
VIC 739$ 0.0% 6.58% -88 13.3%
QLD 1,125$ 2.3% 6.81% -44 8.8%
WA 828$ -0.6% 6.88% -38 4.8%
SA 571$ 0.0% 7.46% 0 0.0%
Aust 871$ 0.6% 6.81% -50 8.7%
Indicative Rents (per
sq m) Yield
MARKETVIEW
SUPERMARKET COMPETITION INTENSIFYING
SUPERMARKETS DRIVE NEW SUPPLY
RENTS REMAIN STABLE
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 8
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Figure 16: Neighbourhood Retail Rent Growth (p.a.)
Figure 17: Neighbourhood Retail Supply by State
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Figure 18: Major Neighbourhood Centre Supply Pipeline
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Centre Name State Developmen
t Type Current Status
Total
sqm
Completion
Quarter
Hope Island Town
Centre QLD New DA Applied 9,470 Dec-17
Emerald City NSW New DA Approved 8,920 Dec-18
Pinjar Road
Shopping Centre WA New DA Approved 8,513 Sep-18
Playford Alive
Shopping Centre SA New
Under
Construction 6,550 Oct-15
Woolworths
Universal Way VIC New
Under
Construction 4,000 Dec-15
Neighbourhood Shopping Centres
(50,000)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
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Reta
il S
upply
(sq m
)
NSW VIC QLD SA WA ACT
-2%
0%
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4%
6%
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10%
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Retail Sales Rents - neighbourhood
MARKETVIEW
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 9
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Neighbourhood Shopping Centres
TURNOVER RENT PROSPECTS LOWER
LACK OF REGIONAL STOCK DRIVING
INTEREST IN SMALLER RETAIL ASSETS
YIELDS CONTINUE TO COMPRESS
•
•
Figure 19: Neighbourhood Retail Rent Growth
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Figure 20: Neighbourhood Retail Transactions by State
Figure 21: Average National Neighbourhood Retail Yield
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YTD
Annual Sale
s V
olu
me (
$m
)
NSW VIC QLD
SA WA ACT
Capital Value
Qtr Ann % Qtr Ann Bp
Change
Ann %
NSW 920$ 1.0% 6.29% -109 18.4%
VIC 658$ 1.0% 6.79% -58 9.7%
QLD 710$ 2.2% 7.00% -75 13.1%
WA 592$ -2.5% 7.00% -75 7.9%
SA 464$ 0.0% 7.63% -13 1.7%
Aust 636$ 0.4% 7.17% -56 10.2%
Indicative Rents (per
sq m) Yield
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Yie
ld (
%)
MARKETVIEW
DEMAND CONTINUES TO OUTSTRIP SUPPLY
SUPPLY REMAINS STABLE WITH SOME FOREIGN
RETAILERS STRUGGLING TO FIND SPACE
RETAIL SPACE FEATURING MORE
PREDOMINATELY IN NEW DEVELOPMENTS AND
RE-DEVELOPMENTS
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 10
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Figure 23: CBD Retail Supply by State
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Figure 22: Retail Sales and Prime CBD Centre Rents
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Figure 24: Major CBD Retail Supply Pipeline
CBD Retail
(40,000)
(20,000)
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Reta
il S
upply
(sq m
)
NSW VIC QLD SA WA ACT
Centre Name State Development Type Current
Status
Total
sqm
Completion
Quarter
Collins Square VIC New Under
Construction 10,000 Dec-16
Australia On Collins VIC Full Refurbish Under
Construction 9,000 Dec-15
170 Brisbane QLD Full Refurbish Under
Construction 8,150 Mar-16
York and George NSW New Under
Construction 4,947 Jun-18
Picadilly Arcade WA Full Refurbish DA Approved 2,000 Mar-18
Gateway Plaza
Podium NSW Full Refurbish DA Approved 1,929 Dec-17
-10%
-5%
0%
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10%
15%
20%
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Retail Sales
Rents - Prime CBD
MARKETVIEW
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 11
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
CBD Retail
Figure 25: Prime CBD Retail Key Stats
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
RENT GROWTH MODERATING
HIGHER MARGINS ALLOW SUSTAINABLY
HIGHER OCCUPANCY COSTS
YIELD COMPRESSION CONTINUES
Figure 26: CBD Retail Transactions by State
Figure 27: Average National CBD Retail Prime Yield
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
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YTD
Annual Sale
s V
olu
me (
$m
)
NSW VIC QLD
SA WA ACT
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Yie
lds (
%)
Property Grade: Super Prime CBD Prime CBD Secondary
Capital Value
Qtr Ann % Qtr Ann Bp
Change
Ann %
NSW 3,488$ 10.7% 5.63% -68 23.9%
VIC 3,769$ 9.7% 4.93% -43 19.3%
QLD 3,155$ 0.0% 7.38% 0 0.0%
WA 3,317$ 9.7% 6.75% -50 17.8%
SA 2,333$ 0.0% 6.50% -50 7.7%
Aust 2,782$ 6.0% 6.40% -35 14.2%
Indicative Rents (per
sq m) Yield
MARKETVIEW
HOUSEHOLD RETAIL TRADE REMAINS
STRONG
TENANT DIVERSIFICATION
STRONG SUPPLY BEFORE EASING IN 2017
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 12
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Figure 29: Large Format Retail Supply by State
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Figure 28: Large Format Retail Rents and Household Goods Sales
Figure 30: Examples from Large Format Retail Supply Pipeline
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Centre Name State Development
Type Current Status
Total
sqm
Completion
Quarter
Masters and Bulky
Goods Nowra NSW New
Under
Construction 13,134 Sep-16
1256 Armadale
Road Armadale WA New
Under
Construction 11,817 Mar-16
Rocklea
Homemaker Centre VIC New
Under
Construction 5,790 Sep-16
Harvey Norman
and Bulky Goods,
Port Lincoln
SA New Under
Construction 4,810 Oct-16
Jindalee
Homemaker Centre QLD Extension
Under
Construction 1,892 Oct-15
Large Format Retail
(100,000)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
20
05
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20
15
20
16
20
17
Reta
il S
upply
(sq m
)
NSW VIC QLD SA WA ACT
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
20
00
20
01
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02
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03
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15
Aust - Household Goods Sales
Large Format Retail Rents
MARKETVIEW
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 13
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Large Format Retail
BUYER PROFILE SHIFT
YIELDS SHARPEN FURTHER
•
•
Figure 31: Large Format Retail Prime Rent Growth
Figure 33: Average National Large Format Retail Prime Yield
Figure 32: Large Format Retail Transactions by State
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
0
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YTD
Annual Sale
s V
olu
me (
$m
)
NSW VIC QLD
SA WA ACT
Capital Value
Qtr Ann % Qtr Ann Bp
Change
Ann %
NSW 381$ 5.1% 8.28% -80 15.2%
VIC 244$ -0.7% 8.30% -56 6.0%
QLD 218$ 4.8% 9.38% -75 13.2%
WA 225$ 4.7% 8.38% -13 6.2%
SA 202$ 2.5% 8.33% -65 10.5%
Aust 238$ 3.0% 8.51% -48 9.3%
Indicative Rents (per
sq m) Yield
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Yie
lds (
%)
MARKETVIEW
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Inc. | 14
AUSTRALIA RETAIL
Source: CBRE, RCA, Q3 2015.
* Note: Table sorted by sale price in descending order.
Figure 34: Sales Transactions over $10m in Q3 2015
Building Name Suburb State Retail Type Sale Price ($m) Initial Yield (%) Sale Date
Westfield Strathpine Strathpine Queensland Sub Regional $209.00 Sep-15
Jam Factory South Yarra Victoria Sub Regional $165.00 Sep-15
Stud Park Shopping Centre Rowville Victoria Sub Regional $154.00 6.00% Sep-15
Spencer Outlet Centre Docklands Victoria CBD $125.00 5.20% Jul-15
Bass Hill Plaza Bass Hill New South Wales Sub Regional $90.00 6.00% Sep-15
Centro Goulburn Goulburn New South Wales Sub Regional $67.00 6.80% Aug-15
Sunshine Homemaker
Centre Maroochydore Queensland Large Format $62.00 9.00% Jul-15
Centro Goulburn Goulburn New South Wales Sub Regional $59.50 Aug-15
Lutwyche City Lutwyche Queensland Neighbourhood $48.80 13.50% Aug-15
Supa Centa Tuggerah Tuggerah New South Wales Large Format $45.00 Jul-15
Sunbury Square Shopping
Centre Sunbury Victoria Neighbourhood $40.00 Sep-15
Kings Cross Centre Darlinghurst New South Wales Neighbourhood $37.30 6.90% Aug-15
Centro Westside Broken Hill New South Wales Sub Regional $33.70 Aug-15
Centro Westside Broken Hill New South Wales Sub Regional $33.70 10.10% Aug-15
Bracken Ridge Plaza Bracken Ridge Queensland Neighbourhood $29.00 7.02% Jul-15
Geraldton Homemaker
Centre Geraldton Western Australia Large Format $27.30 Sep-15
Woolworths Marketplace Albany Creek Queensland Neighbourhood $26.10 6.11% Jul-15
319-325 Swanston Street Melbourne Victoria CBD $26.00 3.90% Jul-15
Woolworths Casula Casula New South Wales Neighbourhood $25.80 5.10% Sep-15
Westpac Chatswood Chatswood New South Wales Strip $25.00 3.90% Jul-15
Griffin Plaza Canberra New South Wales Neighbourhood $23.50 6.90% Aug-15
Chisholm Village Shopping
Centre Chisholm Australian Capital Territory Neighbourhood $22.00 7.80% Sep-15
227-229 Forest Rd Hurstville New South Wales Strip $18.80 4.00% Sep-15
Bay Central Shopping
Centre Hervey Bay Queensland Sub Regional $17.50 Aug-15
Lutwyche City Lutwyche Queensland Neighbourhood $16.30 13.50% Aug-15
123 Swanston Street,
Melbourne Melbourne Victoria CBD $15.80 2.77% Jul-15
House and Home South Nowra New South Wales Large Format $15.30 8.90% Aug-15
Bell Central Shopping
Centre Mudgeeraba Queensland Neighbourhood $13.50 8.40% Sep-15
Champion Drive Shopping
Centre Seville Grove Western Australia Neighbourhood $13.50 Jul-15
434 Oxford Street Bondi Junction New South Wales Strip $13.40 4.90% Sep-15
16 Collins Street Melbourne Victoria CBD $12.30 1.30% Sep-15
Valley View Shopping
Centre Valley View South Australia Neighbourhood $12.30 7.85% Aug-15
338 Queen Street Melbourne Victoria CBD $12.00 Aug-15
61 Mabo Blvd Gungahlin Australian Capital Territory Stand Alone $11.70 6.50% Aug-15
332 Victoria Rd Gladesville New South Wales Stand Alone $11.50 4.60% Aug-15
Divercity (18 shops on G/F) Waterloo New South Wales Strip $11.50 Aug-15
Dan Murphy's Queanbeyan Australian Capital Territory Stand Alone $11.30 Aug-15
Tamborine Mountain
Shopping Square Mount Tamborine Queensland Neighbourhood $11.30 7.56% Aug-15
180 Bay St Port Melbourne Victoria Strip $11.20 Sep-15
293 Doncaster Rd Balwyn North Victoria Strip $11.10 3.90% Sep-15
200 Grand Avenue Forest Lake Queensland Neighbourhood $11.00 9.50% Sep-15
Bunnings Swan Hill Swan Hill Victoria Large Format $11.00 5.10% Jul-15
1155-1161 High St Armadale Victoria Strip $10.60 Aug-15
12-14 McKillop St Melbourne Victoria CBD $10.00 Sep-15
MARKETVIEW
Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy,
we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness.
This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior
written permission of CBRE.
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