Improving Quality of Area & Production Estimates of Crops
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Transcript of Improving Quality of Area & Production Estimates of Crops
Improving Quality of Area & Production Estimates of Crops
By
Directorate of Economics & StatisticsDepartment of Agriculture & Cooperation
Ministry of AgricultureNew Delhi
National Conference on Agriculture for Kharif Campaign
20th & 21st March 2009, New Delhi
Advance Estimates (27 crops)– First : September/October– Second : January/February– Third : April/May– Fourth : June/July
Final Estimates (44 crops)– Six months after the end of agriculture year
System of Release of Estimates of Agriculture Production
The Directorate of Economics & Statistics in the Union Ministry of Agriculture brings out four advance estimates and one final estimate at the national level:
Contd…
State Agricultural Statistics Authorities (SASAs)
State Governments have designated one of its Departments as SASA which is responsible for providing requisite data at prescribed intervals to DES for finalising Advance Estimates.
SASA’s vary from State to State and is one of the following State Departments:
Deptt. of Agriculture Deptt. of Economics & StatisticsDeptt. of Land Records
Validation of Data
DES validates the above data at the national level with input from:
Forecasts given by the Space Applications Center (SAC), Ahmedabad and IEG, New Delhi Inputs received from the weekly Crop Weather WatchGroup (CWWG) meetings Results of the available Crop Cutting Experiments received from the SASAs/ NSSO for selected crops Trends in the area, production and yield of different crops during the last 5 years and Trends in procurement and prices of respective commodities
Some Important Issues
Inter State variation in yield rates
Year to year large variations in estimates within the State
Large variations in successive advance estimates and final estimates
Inter-agency variation in the estimates within the State
Mismatch between the district wise estimates and State level estimates received from SASA’s
Reliability of the results of the crop-cutting experiments
Inter State variation in yield rates (Rice)
State/ UTProduction Yield (Kg./Hectare)
2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Andhra Pradesh 13324.0 3009 3111 2939 2984 3344
Assam 3319.0 1534 1460 1468 1332 1428
Bihar 4418.1 1523 792 1075 1486 1237
Chattisgarh 5426.6 1454 1170 1337 1354 1446
Gujarat 1474.0 1891 1806 1949 1894 1942
Haryana 3613.0 2749 2941 3051 3238 3361
Jammu & Kashmir 561.3 1941 1969 2150 2194 2133
Jharkhand 3336.4 1695 1305 1150 1828 2018
Karnataka 3717.0 2375 2712 3868 2470 2625
Madhya Pradesh 1461.9 1018 720 999 824 938
Maharashtra 2996.0 1853 1425 1779 1680 1903
Orissa 7540.7 1496 1446 1531 1534 1694
Punjab 10489.0 3694 3943 3858 3868 4019
Tamil Nadu 5040.2 2308 2703 2546 3423 2817
Uttar Pradesh 11780.0 2187 1790 1996 1879 2063
West Bengal 14719.5 2504 2574 2509 2593 2573
All India 96692.9 2078 1984 2102 2131 2202
Inter State variation in yield rates (Wheat)
State/ UT
Production Yield (Kg./Hectare)
2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Bihar 4450.4 1776 1609 1617 1908 2058
Gujarat 3838.0 2681 2482 2700 2498 3013
Haryana 10236.0 3937 3901 3844 4232 4158
Madhya Pradesh 6032.5 1800 1735 1613 1835 1612
Maharashtra 2078.7 1170 1344 1393 1325 1659
Punjab 15720.0 4207 4221 4179 4210 4507
Rajasthan 7124.9 2794 2839 2762 2751 2749
Uttar Pradesh 25679.0 2794 2502 2627 2721 2817
All India 78570.2 2713 2602 2619 2708 2802
Inter State variation in yield rates (Total Coarse Cereals)
State/UTProduction Yield (Kg/Hectare)
2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Andhra Pradesh 4274.0 2139 2026 2772 2305 3336
Bihar 1498.5 2296 2293 2021 2555 2185
Gujarat 2151.0 1492 1083 1142 928 1373
Haryana 1357.0 1486 1249 1124 1567 1762
Madhya Pradesh 2122.5 1401 1062 1150 918 1082
Maharashtra 7093.0 746 820 887 895 1122
Tamil Nadu 1357.1 1056 1054 985 1951 1943
Uttar Pradesh 3058.9 1366 1577 1383 1404 1454
All India 40750.4 1221 1153 1172 1182 1431
Inter State variation in yield rates (Groundnut)
States
Production Yield (Kgs./Hect.)
2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Andhra Pradesh 2604.0 660 890 728 557 1451
Gujarat 3299.0 2235 943 1734 809 1777
Karnataka 733.0 530 766 645 497 807
Maharashtra 472.0 1153 1123 958 889 1168
Rajasthan 477.4 1566 1552 1549 1310 1728
Tamil Nadu 1047.6 1552 1632 1775 1981 1957
All India 9182.5 1357 1020 1187 866 1459
Inter State variation in yield rates (Soyabean)
STATES
Production Yield (Kgs./Hect.)
2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Andhra Pradesh 173.0 1569 1567 1949 1515 1966
Madhya Pradesh 5480.5 1105 835 1058 1006 1091
Maharashtra 3976.0 1396 900 1077 1147 1492
Rajasthan 1071.2 1400 1425 1150 1203 1343
All India 10968.2 1193 908 1073 1063 1235
Inter State variation in yield rates (Cotton)
STATES
Production Yield ( Kg/Hect. )
2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Andhra Pradesh 3491.0 384 316 347 381 523
Gujarat 8276.0 417 421 604 625 581
Haryana 1885.0 454 568 437 582 663
Maharashtra 7015.0 190 176 187 253 373
Punjab 2355.0 556 697 731 750 663
All India 25884.1 307 318 362 421 467
Inter-agency variation in the estimates within the State
State
Production (Lakh Tonnes)2006-07 2007-08
DESCane
Commissioner
Difference DESCane
Commissioner
Difference
Uttar Pradesh 1339.49 1586.22 -246.73 1246.65 1650.00 -403.35
Maharashtra 785.68 834.44 -48.76 884.37 791.00 93.37
Tamil Nadu 411.24 268.36 142.88 380.71 269.00 111.71
Karnataka 286.70 388.00 -101.30 262.40 365.00 -102.60
Andhra Pradesh 216.92 216.00 0.92 202.96 196.80 6.16
Gujarat 156.30 132.33 23.97 151.90 136.69 15.21
Bihar 59.56 143.60 -84.04 38.55 159.50 -120.95
Others 299.31 249.91 49.40 314.34 364.38 -50.04
All-India 3555.20 3818.86 -263.66 3481.88 3932.37 -450.49
Suggestions Crop estimates should not be treated as a routine activity.
The assessment need to be validated by considering rainfall, weather conditions and market behaviour.
A Core Group of officers of concerned departments under the leadership of State Agriculture Secretary may periodically meet to firm up the estimates with other State Agencies before furnishing data to the Central Government
Contd…
The Core Group should also liaise with D/Sugar, D/Horticulture, other agriculture input related Deptts. (e.g. Irrigation, Power, Weather, Remote Sensing, Agriculture Research Institute etc.) before finalising estimates of area and production.
States with low yield rates in some crops should scrutinize more closely and validate their assessment.
Despite financial support under various schemes in the Agriculture sector, if the productivity is not increasing in some States, what are the reasons?
Thanks !!!
Inter State variation in yield rates (Gram)
State/ UTProduction Yield (Kg./Hectare)
2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Andhra Pradesh 912.0 1083 1012 1591 1085 1448
Chattisgarh 205.8 964 542 706 843 874
Gujarat 210.0 884 803 850 870 977
Madhya Pradesh 1735.0 926 928 926 980 711
Maharashtra 1116.0 530 561 691 706 825
Rajasthan 574.2 633 747 443 863 466
Uttar Pradesh 376.0 1035 910 893 742 745
All India 5748.6 811 815 808 845 762
Inter State variation in yield rates (Pulses)
State/UTProduction Yield (Kg./Hectare)
2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Andhra Pradesh 1697.0 567 565 772 679 803
Bihar 497.1 814 710 749 722 818
Chhattisgarh 536.8 608 395 477 543 586
Gujarat 743.0 748 675 704 593 843
Haryana 101.8 719 793 622 824 602
Jharkhand 301.8 508 586 592 686 736
Karnataka 1265.0 304 376 487 377 531
Madhya Pradesh 2453.6 761 759 754 780 609
Maharashtra 3024.0 569 492 584 602 746
Orissa 383.5 382 388 416 445 446
Rajasthan 1552.8 590 375 261 462 401
All India 14761.5 635 577 598 612 625
Inter State variation in yield rates (Oilseeds)
STATESProduction Yied (Kgs./Hect.)
2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Andhra Pradesh 3390.0 634 757 698 609 1276
Gujarat 4725.0 1901 990 1544 908 1618
Haryana 642.8 1547 1176 1124 1344 1214
Karnataka 1549.0 412 587 600 478 681
Madhya Prd. 6352.0 1049 833 1009 955 1015
Maharashtra 4874.0 1057 817 925 963 1274
Rajasthan 4197.6 1239 1079 1134 1146 1051
Tamil Nadu 1146.7 1386 1483 1624 1829 1739
Uttar Prd. 1146.8 852 861 993 837 856
All India 29755.3 1064 885 1004 916 1115
Inter State variation in yield rates (Sugarcane)
STATES/UTProduction Yield (Kgs./Hect.)
2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Andhra Pradesh 20296.0 72105 74948 76765 82167 82170
Bihar 3854.9 41370 39460 42822 45953 35496
Gujarat 15190.0 71820 74072 74010 73037 71991
Haryana 8860.0 58000 62000 64409 68429 63286
Karnataka 26240.0 65826 80202 83411 87944 85752
Maharashtra 88437.0 57941 63194 77551 74898 80912
Tamil Nadu 38071.0 91910 100845 104671 105123 107484
Uttar Pradesh 124665.3 55541 60733 58201 59626 57212
Uttaranchal 7686.0 59773 60196 60733 50413 61984
All India 348187.9 59380 64752 66919 69022 68877
Variation in Production Estimates
Year Estimated Production of Foodgrains
(Million Tonnes)
2nd Advance
3rd
Advance4th
AdvanceFinal
Estimate
2006-07 209.17 211.78 216.13 217.28
1.25% 2.05% 0.53%
2007-08 219.32 227.32 230.67 230.78
3.65% 1.47% 0.05%
Contd…