Improving impact measurement to make the most of demand ......Improving impact measurement to make...

Improving impact measurement to make the most of

demand management

Monash Sustainability Institute Seminar

Amandine Denis, Head of Research

• Network upgrades will be the main component of electricity price increase in the next few years

• Increase in peak demand drives the need for new infrastructure

• Demand management can avoid or differ the need for infrastructure upgrades

Benefits to distributors

Benefits to consumers

• However, most of the time, split incentives exist

Why demand management?

1

SOURCE: The Climate Institute, Electricity prices: the facts (2011)

• Financial benefits due to

vertical integration

- Postponing costly

infrastructure upgrades to

link remote communities

to the main network

- Decreasing consumption

of diesel in off-grid

remote communities

2

Ergon Energy is an atypical case where incentives align

SOURCE: Ergon Network Management Plan 2011/12 to 2015/16; CRA report, 2006

• Other benefits

- Better insight into customer

requirements and practices

- Improved customer satisfaction

• Reduced energy costs

• Increased ‘value add’

through incentives, rebates

and in-home consultation

1 2

Ergon Energy has conducted a number of demand management programs in

the last 5 years, and they asked us to help them understand

what are the relative financial benefits of each option

Aimed at reducing peak demand for electricity:

Energy Savers – low-intensity consultation program in

Mackay and Mt Isa suburbs

Townsville Solar city program – high-intensity

consultation program in Townsville suburb + solar panels

installation program

Rewards Based Tariffs – pricing system to incentivise

demand reduction on extreme peak days

Air conditioning direct load trial - incentive to install load

controllers on existing AC systems, controlled by Ergon

Pool pumps trial – incentive to investigate ways to reduce

pool pump demand in peak periods

Aimed at reducing overall energy consumption (diesel generation):

PowerSavvy – intensive consultation program in three

isolated communities

We analysed six of Ergon’s demand management trials

SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis

Ergon requested

help to compare the

efficiency and

effectiveness of

various demand

management

programs based on

past trials…

…and also to define

what optimised

versions of programs

would look like.

3

In order to create the program cost curve, we followed a five-step process

4

• First, we estimated the baseline consumption profile for the average

household targeted by past programs (North Queensland)

• Second, we assessed the savings that could be delivered by a set of

actions undertaken by a typical household

• Third, we analysed the programs: how many households can be

expected to take up a program, and how much savings can be

expected for each household taking up the program (more complex

for consultations)

• Fourth, we assessed how much reduction would remain after 5 years

to make all programs comparable

• Finally, we assessed how the costs would decrease if the programs

were to be operated at larger scale


A

B

C

D

E


5%

5%

5%

3%

12%

Space heating

0%

Laundry

1%

Water heating

1% Appliances

Pool

Refrigeration

Lighting

Electronics and

entertainment 11%

Cooking

Cooling 57%

Peak demand definition: extremely hot summer day, maximum hourly consumption (typically within 5pm-8pm)

Average per household, % of total consumption

Total = 4.1 kW

By end use By piece of equipment (top 10)

10%

4%

5%

4%

5%

3%

Electric cook-top

7%

Televisions

7%

Air Conditioners

54%

Other

Microwave

2% Fans

Electric oven

Refrigerators

Pool

Lighting

3 pieces of equipment make up 2/3 of peak demand

First, we estimated the baseline consumption profile for the average

household in the regions targeted by demand management programs

A

5


* Does not include interaction between different actions represented

Second, we assessed the savings that could be delivered by a set of

actions undertaken by a typical household

B

6

Peak demand savings available (kW/HH)*

2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0

-300

-350

Cost to household

($/yr)

250

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

-200

-250

Replace electric hot water system with a solar system

Upgrade your pool pump filter to a new unit that complies with new 2009 MEPS

Change old AC to new AC

Replace electric hot water system with gas storage/continuous flow or 5 star storage

Purchase/ retrofit decisions

Behaviour changes – one-off

Behaviour changes – continuous Replace electric hot water system with an electric heat pump system

Use fan in conjunction to AC

Change air conditioning temperature to 25 degrees

Switch appliances off at the wall to reduce standby load

Buy best-in class AC instead of average AC

Buy 7+ star LCD TV to replace plasma TV

Install water-efficient low flow showerheads/roses

Switch to gas for cooking - cooktop

Switch traditional halogens to high-efficiency halogens

Switch incandescent bulbs to CFLs

Change thermostat on fridge

Placing the fridge to allow for air circulation around the coils

Service Air conditioner check filter, refrigerant levels and clear vegetation)

Swap pool pump to T33

Use shading (curtains and pelmets)

Turn off lights when not in the room

Switch to gas for cooking – oven

Upgrade to a 7 + star LCD TV (from average 5 star)

Weather-strip homes

Do not use electric stove during peak times (4pm to 8pm), use BBQ/pre-cooked meals

Upgrade your ceiling insulation from R2 to R4

Turn off TVs when not in use

Install water efficient tap fittings (tap aerators)

Paint roof white

Turn off/surrender second fridge

Run pool filter outside of peak times (4pm to 8pm)

Do not use appliances during peak times (4pm to 8pm)

Upgrade from old 2* fridge to new 3.5*

Fit load controllers to new medium air conditioners (demand ready AC)

The impact of a program is the sum of the impact of each action

promoted

Expected

savings from

program (on

average per

household)

=

Expected %

households

taking up

program

x

Driven by

community size

and receptivity

Expected

savings from

action X x

Expected %

households

taking up

action X

+

technology-

based actions

Expected

savings from

behaviour-

based actions

Driven by community

size and receptivity

Driven by baseline

and actions impact

calculations

Driven by equipment

ownership profile and

attractiveness of

actions to households

7

C


* Does not include interaction between different actions represented

0.050 0.075 0.100 0.125 0.150 0.175 0.025 0.200 0.225

Peak demand savings

(kW/HH)*

0

Operating cost

($/kW)

30,000

Replace electric hot water system with an electric heat pump system

Rebate - Swap pool pump to T33

Switch traditional halogens to high-efficiency halogens - living areas

Switch to gas for cooking - cooktop

Installed by Ergon Given for free by Ergon Rebate

Switch incandescent bulbs to CFLs - living areas

Paint roof white

Weather-strip homes

Install water-efficient low flow showerheads/roses

Swap pool pump to T33

Switch traditional halogens to high-

efficiency halogens in living areas

Fit load controllers to new medium AC

Switch incandescent bulbs to CFLs in living areas

Weather-strip homes

Switch to gas for cooking - oven

Upgrade your ceiling insulation from R2 to R4

Replace electric hot water system with a solar system

For different community categories, we identified how many actions

lead to the lowest unit cost for Ergon Peak demand reduction

Optimum set of activities for urban high and low intensity

consultation programs

8

C


Fourth, we assessed how much reduction would remain after 5 years

to make all programs comparable

D

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Year 5 Year 2

10% attrition per year

No attrition

Year 1 Year 0 Year 4 Year 3

Persistence of activities over time

Percentage of original impact, %


0.05

Cost ($/kW)

Expected peak demand savings (kW/HH)

0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10

Urban or suburban

areas – high intensity

Pool pumps program

Urban or suburban areas – low intensity

Air conditioning load control (new units, medium to large)

Rewards based tariffs

Finally, we assessed how the costs would decrease if the programs

were to be operated at larger scale

E

10


Cost ($/kW)

0.300 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050

Urban or suburban area –

high intensity

Urban or suburban area– low intensity

Pool pumps program



Cost ($/kW)

8,000

0


0.300 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050

Based on our analysis, we built a comparison of the different programs to

reduce demand in urban and suburban areas Peak demand - Future costs (estimated in case of extension to business-as-usual)


Urban or suburban area – high intensity

Urban or suburban area – low intensity

Pool pumps program



11

0.150 0.100 0.050

Cost ($/kW)

8,000

0


0.300 0.250 0.200






Pool pumps program



12

Low

cost Large volume

8,000

Cost ($/kW)

0.300 0.250


0

0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050






Pool pumps program



13

Low

cost Large volume

Benefit of

postponing

0.150 0.100 0.050

Cost ($/kW)

8,000

0


0.300 0.250 0.200






Pool pumps program



14

Low

cost Large volume

Benefit of

postponing

500 250 0

Cost ($/MWh)

1,500

0

Expected Annual consumption savings (kWh/HH)

2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750

We also built a comparison of programs to reduce annual demand in

isolated communities Annual consumption - Future costs (estimated in case of extension to business as usual)


Consultations in isolated communities – medium receptivity

Consultations in isolated communities – low receptivity

Consultations in isolated communities – high receptivity

15

16

Much can be done to improve the outcomes of demand management

programs in future

• First, focus on measurement from outset of projects helps to

ensure quality data is collected to quantify program success

• Second, potential exists to facilitate data sharing between

organisations undertaking demand management programs

Third, potential exists to develop voluntary data collection

protocols for consistency and comparability across programs


A

B

C

Collection of quality data at all program stages is key to developing a more robust tool

that can better estimate future program costs and benefits, e.g.

• Community characteristics

• Actions taken

• Energy savings

• Peak demand reduction

• Drivers for take up of program/actions

• Cost

www.climateworksaustralia.org 17

First, focus on measurement from outset of projects helps to ensure

quality data is collected to quantify program success

A

• Others are also doing trials, both within Australia and internationally

• Sharing can improve data gathering and quality of data for all

• Examples of how others are doing it well:

- International Energy Agency – Demand Side Management Program (INDEEP)

www.ieadsm.org

- California Energy Commission and California Public Utilities Commission – Database for

Energy Efficient Resources (DEER) www.energy.ca.gov/deer/

- Community for Energy, Environment and Development – LEAP (Long range Energy

Alternatives Planning System) Technology and Environment Database

www.energycommunity.org/

- Minnesota Department of Commerce and Energy – Deemed Savings Database

http://mn.gov/commerce/energy/topics/conservation/Design-Resources/Deemed-

Savings.jsp

18

Second, potential exists to facilitate data sharing between

organisations undertaking demand management programs B

• A voluntary data collection protocol could be used to improve demand management

programs.

• Developing and agreeing on performance measures and how/when to apply them is

a key step in establishing protocol

• ClimateWorks and Ergon are keen to collaborate with others on developing this

protocol.


Third, potential exists to develop voluntary data collection protocols

to ensure consistency and comparability across programs C

Questions?

Amandine Denis

Head of Research

E: [email protected]

P: (03) 9902 0743

www.climateworksaustralia.org

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