Implementation Update: 2017 Scoping Plan · 9. Transportation Focus in 2018 Implementation of 2017...

Implementation Update: 2017 Scoping Plan FEBRUARY 21, 2019

CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD 1

AIR RESOURCES BOARD

California GHG Emissions Reduction Targets

Total G

HG Emiss

ions (M

MTC

O2e)

Emissions to be Additional Additional reduced by 2020 reductions reductions500

by 2030 by 20502020

Target* 400 431 MMTCO2e

300 2030 Target

200 260 MMTCO2e

2050100 Goal

86 MMTCO2e 0

1990 2020 2030 2050

MMT = Million Metric Tons

*2016 emissions below 2020 target

2CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD

7 /

California’s GHG Emissions

Transportation 39%

Industrial 21%

Electricity Generation In-

State 10%

Electricity Generation

Imports 6%

Commercial and Residential

9%

Agriculture 8%

High GWP 5%

Recycling and Waste

2%

Source: CARB, 2018 Edition 2016 Total CA Emissions: 429.4 MMTCO2e California GHG Inventory


2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

__,,,,..,

- - - - -~ .

550

300

250

GHG Inventory

Progress on Reducing GHG Emissions 550

350

400

450

500

MMTC

O2e 2020 Target

350

400

450

500

MMTC

O2 e

2020 Target

300

250

GHG Inventory Mandatory Reporting GHG Inventory

Source: CARB , 2018 MMT = Million Metric Tons

4CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD

800

700 Q)

N

0 600 u I-2 500

6 (/)

C 400 0 (/) (/)

E 300

w (.9 200 I (.9

100

0 Scoping Plan

-- 236 Cap-and-Trade Program

217 Short Lived Climate Pollutants High Global Warming Gases & Methane Reduction from LCFS and Direct Measures

64 Mobile Sources CFT & Freight

64 Energy Efficiency (Res, Com, Ind Ag & TCU)

~boJuR~l8% LCFS)

Scoping Plan Measures to Achieve 2030 Target

Cumulative GHG Emissions Reductions Reflected best available data at (2021 – 2030)the time

Policy and regulatory changes since Scoping Plan adoption

Short‐lived climate pollutantstrategy second largest measure Sources not covered by Cap‐and‐Trade

Source: CARB, California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan


Metrics for Tracking Progress Annual Emissions Reporting Greenhouse gas data Enhanced criteria and toxics data

Trends Data State GDP and population Energy and fuel use Renewable electricity generation Low carbon fuel volumes Technology deployment New source‐based emission analysis Vehicle miles traveled

Climate Change Investments Reports


Summary of Board Actions in 2018 Set GHG Planning Targets Electricity sector and retail electricity providers Sustainable Communities Strategies

Strengthen/Extend Existing Regulations Vehicle Standards Low Carbon Fuels Cap‐and‐Trade Program

Adopt New Requirements Short‐Lived Climate Pollutants from refrigeration/foam end uses


I Q • ~ affordable public renewable zero-emission housing transportation energy vehicles

0 lo * ~ environmental recycling sustainable and

restoration agriculture much more

Climate Investments

$1.4 billion appropriated in fiscal year 2018‐2019

$8.4 billion appropriated since 2014

> 50% of investments to date benefit disadvantaged communities CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD 8

Transportation Focus in 2018 Implementation of 2017 Scoping Plan will reduce on‐road fuel demand 45% by 2030 Transportation sector GHG emissions increased 2% from 2015‐2016

Board direction to investigate additional cost‐effective technologically feasible GHG reduction measures Interagency Workshop on Opportunities for Additional GHG Reductions from Petroleum Transportation Fuels

Governor direction to explore new regulatory actions to accelerate ZEVs Workshop on Assessment of a Zero Emission Vehicle Requirement for Public and Private Light‐ and Heavy‐Duty Vehicle Fleets


Transportation: Additional Actions Needed Need Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reductions to achieve the 2030 GHG emission reduction target VMT reduction of 7% below projected 2030 levels, 15% below projected 2050 levels SB375 regional targets do not achieve the VMT level called for in the Scoping Plan

Sustainable Development Reduce VMT Protect Natural and Working Lands Develop Affordable Housing

AB 32: Achieve reductions in this sector to compensate for potential federal waiver revocation


SLCP Strategy: 2‐Yr Collaboration with Dairy Working Group

Working Group Subgroups’ Membership Fostering Markets Dairy Industry

Fostering for Non‐Digester Utilities Markets for Projects Project Developers

Digester Projects Environmental Justice (EJ) Organizations

Conservation Groups Financial Consultants

Research Needs, Including NGOs Enteric Fermentation Academia

Local, State, and Federal Agencies Workgroup Kick‐Off Workgroup Update Meeting Workgroup Final Meeting Meeting May 2017 January 2018 December 2018

Subgroup Meetings 20182017


• • ♦

• +

♦ •

SLCP Strategy: Significant Public and Private Funding of Dairy Projects CDFA Dairy Digester Research and Development Program

(2015‐2018)

CDFA Alternative Manure Management Program

(2016‐2018)

CPUC Dairy Pilot Pipeline Injection Projects

(2018)

*20‐yr GWP (AR4)

64 Projects Funded 57 Projects Funded 6 Projects Selected

$114M Awarded

$204M Matched

37 MMTCO2e*

Reduced (10 years)

$31M Awarded

$5M Matched

2 MMTCO2e*

Reduced (5 years)

$319M Investment

Not shown above: additional $99M was allocated for DDRDP and AMMP in FY 2018/2019


SLCP Strategy: Dairy‐Related Next Steps 2020 analysis (SB 1383)

Implementation of Subgroup recommendations

Explore improvements to competitiveness of in‐State renewable natural gas

Continue research into dairy and livestock emissions reductions


• Climate change impacts already evident

• Risks to public health, environment, and economic growth increase with warming

• Adaptation and mitigation reduce risks of climate change

• Efforts to limit climate change need to be upscaled and accelerated

• Vulnerable populations impacted disproportionally

Fourth National Climate Assessment

Globa

l2018 Climate Change Reports

United States

IPCC Special Report ‐Global Warming of 1.50 C


• ~,,, -

A Sources r-t, --

lo Sinks ~ ~

Ji il


Framing the Path Forward IPCC Report – Carbon neutrality by Carbon Neutrality by 2045 2045 may hold global warming to

1.5°C

Sources =

Sinks

Some regions are net emitters; Reduce fossil energy and NWL others are sinks emissions; evaluate potential sinks

Portfolio Approach and Ambition IPCC

Carbon pricing, complemented with other policies, can increase ambition cost‐effectively

Innovation policies and international cooperation can contribute to the development, commercialization, and widespread adoption of new and possibly disruptivetechnologies and practices

Education, information, and community approaches, when combined with other policies, are more effective in accelerating wide‐scale behavior changes

California

Since the 2008 Scoping Plan, California has implemented a portfolio of incentives, prescriptive regulations, and carbon pricing


International Carbon Neutrality Efforts European Union strategic long‐term vision climate‐neutral economy by 2050 aggregate goal over a region of 28 member states

Sweden goal of net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2045, negative thereafter 85 percent reductions achieved in‐jurisdiction, balance remaining 15 percent with investments abroad

Costa Rica aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2021


California Carbon Neutrality (CO2e) Today Mid‐century

AB 32 GHG Inventory

Natural & Working Lands Inventory

Conversion

Minimize emissions

Transition from source to sink

No net GHG emissions Both categories emit GHGs


►

~~

~~

m

Ii

m

Ii

Carbon Neutrality: Key Questions for California Pathways to minimize emissions in fossil energy and industrial sectors bymid‐century?

Long‐term potential of a resilient NWL to store and sequester carbon and timing to transition from emissions source to sink?

Options for additional mechanical sequestration technologies?

Optimal mix of carbon pricing with complementary policies?

Tools to assess economic and environmental outcomes of achieving carbon neutrality under different scenarios at multiple levels (e.g., stateeconomy, jobs, households and small businesses)?

How to maximize co‐benefits for vulnerable communities?


2019 Engagement Carbon Neutrality Webinar and Bioresources Economy Summit

Workshops to explore topic areas on achieving carbon neutrality Energy demand and supply Transformation across economic sectors (i.e. transportation, industrial) Options and support for sequestration activities

Continued collaboration State and local agencies Academics and researchers International partners


Thank You


Implementation Update: 2017 Scoping Plan · 9. Transportation Focus in 2018 Implementation of 2017...

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