Imperialism, globalization in crisis and Obama’s Middle Eastern empire.
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Transcript of Imperialism, globalization in crisis and Obama’s Middle Eastern empire.
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Imperialism, globalization in crisis and Obama’s Middle Eastern empire
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Introduction
o Place of report in the sessiono Reporter:
a US Jewish gay anti-imperialist … in Holland
o Reporter’s limits: not an economist not an expert on any of these countries
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Overview of report
I. Imperialism: Lenin’s classic theory
II. Neoliberal globalization
III.Armed globalization and the ‘war on terror’
IV.From Bush II to Obama: in Iraq,
Afghanistan, Libya and Palestine
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I. Imperialism: Lenin’s theory
The Marxist understanding of imperialism before Lenin Marx and Engels: Ireland, Poland, Algeria and India German social democracy: ‘not a man, not a penny’ Cracks in the consensus: the Moroccan crisis (1911) An outdated vision of capitalism: revisionism and
Hilferding’s Finance Capital Luxemburg’s The Accumulation of Capital The shock of 1914
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Basics of Lenin’s theory
(from a non-economist!)Laissez-faire capitalism and monopoly capitalismUneven development and export of capitalCompetition for raw materialsThe division of the planet: colonial empiresSpheres of influence and semi-colonies
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Colonial empires 1914
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(Official) division of the world
PERCENTAGE OF TERRITORY BELONGING TO THE EUROPEAN COLONIAL POWERS (including the United States)
1876 1900 Increase or decreaseAfrica.......... 10.8 90.4 +79.6Polynesia.... 56.8 98.9 +42.1Asia............ 51.5 56.6 +5.1Australia..... 100.0 100.0 —America...... 27.5 27.2 -0.3
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(Unofficial) control of the world
DISTRIBUTION (APPROXIMATE) OF FOREIGN
CAPITAL IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE GLOBE
(circa 1910)
Britain France Germany Total
(in billions of German marks)
Europe.......... 4 23 18 45
America.......... 37 4 10 51
Asia, Africa, and Australia...... 29 8 7 44
Total........ 70 35 35 140
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Imperialism, 1916-1982
1914-20 Re-division: German and Ottoman possessions become British, French, Italian, Japanese and US
1936-45 Failed German challenge to re-division; Italy and Japan lose their colonial possessions
1947/1956 Truman Doctrine and Suez crisis mark replacement of British by US hegemony
1949 Chinese revolution1955 Bandung: India, Indonesia, Egypt etc. gain
autonomy1975 US defeat in Vietnam1979/1980/1982 Thatcher elected; Reagan elected; debt crisis
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II. Neoliberal globalization
Is imperialism still a relevant framework to analyze the post-1979 world economy?
Claudio Katz’s arguments:• Growth of inequality: dominant and dependent countries• Terms of trade• Extraction of financial resources• Transfer of industrial profits• Loss of political autonomy
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Distribution of wealth (2005)
% world pop. % world GDP GDP per cap.
Dominant 14% 78% $ 31,000
countries
Dependent 80% 19% $ 1,410
countries
(Figures from CADTM)
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Debt: the poor fund the rich
Marshall Plan aid to Europe,
post-WW2: $ 90 billion
Debt payments from dependent
to dominant countries, 1980-2004:$5300 billion
Number of total Marshall Plans
from poor to rich: 59
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Terms of trade and repatriation of profits
Ratio of prices between dependent country exports and dependent country imports:
1980 100
2002 48
Net repatriation of profits from dependent countries by multinational corporations, 1998-2002:
$ 334 billion
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Multinationals: monopoly finance capital
Selected GDP of countries and revenues of multinational corporations
Countries (IMF, 2010, $ billion) 1. US $ 14,658 2. China 5,878 5. France 2,582 7. Brazil 2,09010. India 1,53812. Spain 1,41016. Netherlands 869 Egypt 218 Israel 213 Iraq 82 Afghanistan 15
Multinationals (2010/11, $ billion)1. Wal-Mart $ 4222. Exxon Mobil 3703. Shell 3684. BP 2975. Sinopec 2906. Toyota 2427. PetroChina 2228. Total 2139. Chevron 20510. Japan Post 201
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Autonomy lost - and found?
IMF/World Bank/WTO: one dollar, one vote
‘Structural adjustment’ and ‘conditionality’
Consequences for social spending and debt repayment
Consequences for negotiating positions
Beyond dependence: China, Brazil, India(?)
Signs of change: Doha, Bancosur(?)
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III. Armed globalization and the ‘war on terror’
• Militarism: response to — and cause of — disintegration of peripheral states (Katz)
• Role of US:
* Enforcer of neoliberal world order
* Sole superpower: 50%+ of global military spending
* Military-industrial complex
* Military supremacy & inter-imperialist rivalries
* Oil: Latin America and the Middle East
• Tools: ‘Coalitions of the willing’, NATO and UN
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The post-1991 world order
The first US invasion of Iraq (1991): a decisive moment (Achcar)US military return to Gulf region (after 1962 withdrawal)
Demonstration of superior US military technology
Network of bases and alliances
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9/11: Bush’s opportunity
The intervention in Afghanistan and the US presence in Central Asia
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IV. The empire and Obama
A time of deepening crisisIn Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and PalestineFactors in imperial politics in Mideast:
• Oil• Geopolitics• Alliance with Zionism• ‘Clash of civilizations’
Introduction: imperialism and globalization in the Islamic world
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Glory of the Islamic world
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Ottomans (and Safavids)
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British and French
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US imperialism
1933 US contract with Saudi king1956 Suez crisis1967 & 1973 US backs Israel1979 Iran revolution; USSR invades Afghanistan1989 USSR leaves Afghanistan1991 First US invasion of Iraq2001 9/11; US invasion of Afghanistan2003-? US invasion and occupation of Iraq2008 Descent into global slump2010/1 Arab revolutions; intervention in Libya
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Lessons of Middle Eastern history
Depth of anti-imperialismOil, imperialism and populismVital interests: converging and contradictory‘The Arab despotic exception’
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Oil: proven reserves (2010)
Rank Country Reserves (bil. bbp) % of total
Saudi Arabia 265 19
Canada 175 13Iran 138 10Iraq 115 8Kuwait 104 8United Arab Emirates 98 7Venezuela 98 7Russia 74 5Libya 47 3Nigeria 38 3
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Oil: reserves by region
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Oil: control
Control over oil depends less on legal ownership than on extraction and refining technology and profit-sharing
1912 Iraq: Turkish Petroleum Company founded (later Iraq Petroleum Company, European consortium)
1933 Saudi Arabia: Agreement with Standard Oil (US)1951 Iran: Parliament nationalizes oil1954 Iran: After coup, shah signs Consortium
Agreement with Western companies1972 Iraq: Ba’athist regime nationalizes oil1973 OPEC boycott of US and Netherlands2007 Iraq: Hydrocarbon law introduced in parliament
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Israel: imperial liability, imperial asset
Liability• Spark of revolutions (1952 and after)• Major factor in legitimacy of independent-minded fundamentalism
(Hamas, Hezbollah)• Cost ($3 billion per year and trade benefits)• A loose cannon
Asset• A rock-solid ally• Source of expertise in spying, assassination, torture• A useful proxy for intervention (in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq…)• World’s fourth-largest military• … at a fraction of the cost of US forces
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The clash of barbarisms
Islam and Arab identity
The diversity of Islam: Sunni centre and Shia crescent
Petty bourgeoisie and fundamentalism
The diversity of fundamentalism: pro-imperial, anti-‘crusader’ and undecided
Women and LGBTs
Fundamentalism: a deadly enemy
‘March separately, strike together’
The Arab revolutions: fundamentalism sidelined
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Iraq
Oil (fourth largest proven reserves)
Resistance: 1920s, 1958, Ba’athism
‘A new Middle East’
US hegemony: challenge to Russia, China … France
US power, Iranian influence: clash ahead?
Obama’s ‘withdrawal’
Ongoing resistance and solidarity
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Afghanistan
No oilResistance: 19th century (Durand Line, 1893), 1979, TalibanAl-Qaeda in AfghanistanState-building?: the US (‘Enduring Freedom’), NATO (ISAF) and the UNObama’s warA difficult solidarity
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Arab revolutions/intervention in Libya
An end to the ‘Arab despotic exception’?Tunisia: the sparkEgypt: the central country (since 1952)Imperialism threatened (Bahrain) or marginalized (Syria)A very unfinished process (tomorrow)Libya: oil (a bit), history of resistance (since 1911), shifting relation to imperialismThe right to assistance - and the danger of subordination
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Palestine
No oilResistance: 1929, 1936, fedayeen, Intifadas (1987 & 2000)Fatah, Hamas … and the leftThe impossible second stateThe assault on Gaza (2008)Obama and the ‘peace process’Towards a new strategy?
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Palestine: the impossible second state
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Resistance and solidarity
The legitimacy of resistance
The balance of military forces
Our globalization: linking civil societies
Fundamentalism and democracy, capital and labour
Solidarity: a political battle
Solidarity: concrete tasks