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Impacts to Labor Productivity in h M l S d F i D llthe Metal Stud Framing, Drywall, Tape & Finishing Tradesp g
Gerald H Williams Jr Ph D PEGerald H. Williams, Jr., Ph.D., PE
Author Biographyg p y
Gerald H. Williams, Jr., Ph.D., P.E.• Ph D Systems Science: Engineering• Ph.D. Systems Science: Engineering
Management, Portland State University• Master of Engineering Management,
Washington State UniversityWashington State University• B.S. Civil Engineering, Oregon State
University• 28 years of Engineering, Government, y g g, ,
Construction, and Consulting Experience– Engineering Design Firms– Portland Development Commission– Donald M. Drake Company– Construction Research Inc., (1996)
• Registered Professional Civil Engineer, since g g1985 California, 1986 Oregon, 2004 Washington, and 2008 Idaho
Purpose of the StudyPurpose of the Study
• Evaluate impacts to labor productivityEvaluate impacts to labor productivity
• Establish relationship between acts (trauma) and effects (productivity impacts and cost (p y pincreases)
• Provide literature review and describe special pissues related to productivity impacts in the trade
• Provide examples for calculating impacts
Legal Issues Requiring Cause & EffectsLegal Issues Requiring Cause & Effects
• Legal entitlement:Legal entitlement:
– Contractual Breach
– Breach of implied or “legal” warrantiesBreach of implied or legal warranties
• Breach
C & Eff• Cause & Effect
• Junk Science/Daubert
Importance of the Construction IndustryImportance of the Construction Industry
• 11% of US GDP is accounted for by the construction i dindustry
• Drywall work makes up about 10% of most commercial building projectscommercial building projects– Generally drywall will be a critical path activity through the middle portion of the job life.g p j• Excavation• Foundation• Structure
•Framing & DrywallLabor is
approximately 75% f h fFraming & Drywall
• Finishesof the cost of drywalling
Principal Tasks in DrywallingPrincipal Tasks in Drywalling
• Wall framingWall framing
– Putting up 2x4’s or (more typically metal studs) to support the drywall) pp y
• Hanging boardsg g
– Putting in place and securing the drywall panels
• Taping & finishing
– Sealing the seams between drywall panels
Contractors are Selected
• Lump sum bid competitive bid based on a predetermined set of plans and specifications…predetermined set of plans and specifications…
• Variables:
Estimate of labor productivity–Estimate of labor productivity– Material pricing/financing
– Bonding and insurance costs
– Overhead and fee
Distribution of Wall Framing RatesgMean=35.5 LF/MD
σ=16.6
Mean=35.6 LF/MD
σ=14.4
Measured in terms of linear feet per man‐day
Average rate is 35.5 linear feet per man‐day but some jobs are much easier (over 80 LF/MD) or harder (under 20 LF/MD)
Wall Framing Productivity Varies WidelyWall Framing Productivity Varies Widely• Production rates
vary widely for wallvary widely for wall framing
an-d
ay)
• Estimators are able to account for less than half of the at
e (L
F/m
athan half of the variation in actual production rates A
ctua
l ra
Estimated rate (LF/man-day)
What explains the rest of the variation?
Taping and Finishing is Similar…
• Taping and finishing tasks
)
from one of the largest drywallers in e
(SF/
day)
drywallers in the US
Act
ual r
ate
Estimated rate (SF/day)
A
Estimated rate (SF/day)
Research Projectj• Two projects
Pilot Project involving one firm– Pilot Project involving one firm
– Final Study, presented here
• Sponsors:
Northwest Wall & Ceiling Bureau– Northwest Wall & Ceiling Bureau
– Northern California Drywall Contractors AssociationAssociation
– NW Wall & Ceiling Contractors Association
Associated Wall & Ceiling Contractors– Associated Wall & Ceiling Contractors
– Western Wall & Ceiling Contractors Association
What are the Factors thatWhat are the Factors that Negatively Affect Productivity
• Expert Panel was assembled from the members of the NWCB
• Factors included:
– Trade Stacking
– Labor and Material Congestion
– Overtime and Added Shift Work
– Out of Sequence Work, Go Backs and Ramp‐q , pUp/Ramp‐Downs
13
14
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S f P j tSurvey of Projects
• A survey of projects was conductedA survey of projects was conducted
• 255 responses received– Projects under $100K were excluded along with exterior work only
– Projects reporting 200% or better productivity were examined and found to be subject to scope change thereby making them inappropriatechange thereby making them inappropriate
• 218 valid responses were used for the analysis
Survey Instrument
4• 4 pages
• First page asked for project characteristics• First page asked for project characteristics
• Next three pages asked about effects• Next three pages asked about effects observed on the work site.
– List of 38 potential effects developedList of 38 potential effects developed by industry experts.
Survey Instrument Pages 2‐4y gFactor
Non
e
Low
Mod
erat
e
Hig
h
Seve
re
Comments:
h/ on
str
. d
i Overzealous InspectionU bl f t i t
Ow
ner/A
rch
Insp
ecto
r R
lt
dCo t
Ad Unreasonable safety requirements
Des
ign Incomplete documents/changes to scope
Quality of Plans & Specs/RFI’s (add # of RFI's in comment)Change Orders (add # of CO's in comment)Constructability Issues
erna
l ct
ors
Extreme WeatherWork Stoppages (Acts of God, War & Public Enemy)Wage Increases
Exte
Fac Wage Increases
Problems with access to the JobsiteOther Problems? (comment)
bcon
trac
tor
Con
trol
led
Bid Issues (missing scope? Overly optimistic productivities?)Problems with motivation/moraleOther local workforce problems (lack of skilled workers?)Availability/Supply of tools and equipmentExcessive rework/Punchlist (Quality control with workforce)Coordination/Layout errors of own work
Sub C Coordination/Layout errors of own work
Problems with vendor deliveriesOther Problems? (comment)
ed /coo
rdin
atio
n Problems with access to specific work areasBuilding interior environment problems (heat, rainwater, etc)Mechanical/electrical/jplumbing interferencesDelay/Availability of GC supplied materials (General OFCI)
a) Door Framesb) Windows or exterior skin/curtain wall
ral C
ontr
acto
r Con
trol
le
Adm
in/ b) Windows or exterior skin/curtain wall
c) Unfinished substrait work by othersProblems w/ response time to RFI's and Change Order RequestsProblems w/ response time to submittals
dulin
g
Trade stacking/Labor congestion due to other tradesCrowding/Labor congestion of your crewsCongestion due to materials and equipmentOvertimeAdded shift work
Gen
er
Del
ay/S
ched Out-of-sequence work
Remobilizations/Go BacksRamp-up/Ramp-down labor forces
Yes No Comment on Frequency:Were Three-week/coordination schedules distributed?Was the overall project schedule distributed?Were overall schedule updates distributed?
Core Idea –Finding Sources for Productivity LossFinding Sources for Productivity Loss
• A framing production rate is generally measured as linear feet per worker‐day (i e higher values are better)feet per worker‐day. (i.e. higher values are better)
– 50 means 50 linear feet per worker‐day
• Key variable: Framing Relative Project Estimate• Key variable: Framing Relative Project Estimate
– This stands for framing productivity as measured by actual rate/estimated rate.
• Therefore, framing productivity as measured by actual rate/estimated rate
> 1 implies your team worked faster than estimated (expected)
i li k d l h i d< 1 implies your team worked slower than estimated (expected)
Projects RepresentedProjects Represented
• 2/3 of the projects i twere private
Types of Projectsyp jFrequency Percent
2 0.9
Clean Room 7 3.2
Higher Education 17 7.8
Hospital 23 10.6
Institutional 12 5.5
Multifamily 12 5.5
Office 31 14.2
Office TI 1 0.5
Office/Manufacturing/Testing 1 0.5Office/Manufacturing/Testing 1 0.5
Office/Warehouse 1 0.5
Other ‐Medical Facilities 1 0.5
Other ‐ 40 18.3
Other Data/Hightech 1 0 5Other ‐ Data/Hightech 1 0.5
Residential 2 0.9
Retail 16 7.3
Schools ‐ K‐ 12 24 11.0
TI 26 11.9
Waste Water Treatment Plants 1 0.5
Project SizeProject Size
Trade StackingTrade Stacking
• Trade Stacking was experienced by contractors as shown to the left b d i ffbut does it affect productivity?
Labor CongestionLabor Congestion
• Too many cooks spoil the soupthe soup…
• Frequently there isFrequently there is labor congestion but does it affect productivity?
C i D M i l &E iCongestion Due to Materials &Equipment
• Stuff getting in the way of getting workway of getting work done
OvertimeOvertime
• Needing to have people work longer work weeks…
• Does it affect productivity?
Add d Shift W kAdded Shift Work
• Will a night shift be d has productive as the
day shift?
O t f S W kOut of Sequence Work
• Say a project should ll b dnaturally be done
as:
A B CABC • What is the impact of being forced toof being forced to do:
ACBACB
G B kGo Backs
• You can’t finish in areas and need to goareas and need to go back so:
ABCrest of AABCrest of A
Ramp Up/Ramp DownRamp Up/Ramp Down
• Hurry up and wait…
• You assemble a team starting work andstarting work and then have to wait before going again…g g g
Analysis Structure
Simple Single Linear RegressionsDetermines which causes and effects have
Calculate Fragmentation and Congestion
the strongest relationships with productivity Combines impacts finds factor which can be used for logistic regression
Correlation MatrixConfirms Relationships among
causes and effects but
Logistic Regression AnalysisDetermines levels of impact corresponding
to different productivity impactsindicate that SSLR results are not additive
to different productivity impacts
SSLR Results Survey Interpretation Coeff R2
1 FM OI O l I ti 0 0443 0 057SSLR Results 1 FM_OI Overzealous Inspection -0.0443 0.0572 FM_USR Unreasonable Safety Requirements -0.0517 0.0233 FM_ID Incomplete Documents/Changes to Scope -0.0729 0.0424 FM_QOP Quality of Plans -0.0622 0.0255 FM_CO's Change Orders -0.0365 0.0216 FM_CI Constructability Issues -0.0473 0.0297 FM EW Extreme Weather -0 0389 0 015
Simple SingleLinear Regressions
Calc Frag, Cong, Acc
35 t
7 FM_EW Extreme Weather 0.0389 0.0158 FM_WS Work Stoppages (Acts of God, War, & Public-0.0451 0.0589 FM_WI Wage Increase -0.0588 0.042
10 FM_PJA Jobsite Access -0.0286 0.06511 FM_Other_ExternaOther External Problems -0.0578 0.0512 FM_BI Bid Issues (Missing scope, overly optimistic p-0.0532 0.00313 FM_M/M Motivation/Morale -0.0656 0.015
Correlation MatrixLogistic
Regression
• 35 separate regressions
• Essentially
14 FM_LW Local Workforce Problems (such as lack of s-0.0573 0.00815 FM_A/S Availability of Tools and Equipment -0.0152 0.00116 FM_ERW Excessive Rework and Punchlist -0.0326 2E-0617 FM_CLE Coordination of Layout and Rework of Own W-0.0266 0.118 FM_VD Vendor Deliveries 0.0098 0.04219 FM_Other_SubconOther Subcontractor Controlled Problems 0.0005 0.07520 FM PA Problematic Access to Specific Areas 0 0693 0 046• Essentially,
everything thought to negatively impact productivity did…
20 FM_PA Problematic Access to Specific Areas -0.0693 0.04621 FM_BIE Building Interior Environment -0.0473 0.06822 FM_MEP Mechanical/Electrical/Plumbing Interference -0.0645 0.05723 FM_D_DF Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (G-0.0526 0.0724 FM_D_W Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (G-0.0625 0.00625 FM_D_U S Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (G-0.0556 0.09126 FM R RFI Response Time to RFIs and Change Orders -0.0644 0.097productivity did…
• High correlations prevent direct usage
26 _ _ Response Time to RFIs and Change Orders 0.0644 0.09727 FM_R_S Response Time to Submittals -0.0198 0.07428 FM_TS Trade Stacking/Labor Congestion due to Oth-0.0663 0.01429 FM_LC Crowding/Labor Congestion of Own Crews -0.0711 0.01830 FM_C Congestion due to Materials and Equipment -0.0640 0.12331 FM_Overtime Overtime -0.0291 0.09732 FM_ASW Added Shift Work -0.0415 0.107p g
though33 FM_ OSW Out-of-Sequence Work -0.0725 0.00734 FM_GB Remobilizations/Go-Backs -0.0684 0.01235 FM_RURD Ramp Up/Ramp Down -0.0760 5E-04
Correlation MatrixInterpretation O
I
USR
ID QO
P
CO
's
CI
EW WS
WI
PJA
Oth
er_E
xte
BI
M/M
LW A/S
ERW
CLE
VD Oth
er_S
ub
PA BIE
MEP
D_D
F
D_W
D_U
S
R_R
FI
R_S
TS LC C Ove
rtim
e
ASW
OSW
GB
RU
RD
Overzealous Inspection 1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5Unreasonable Safety Requirements 0.6 1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4Incomplete Documents/Changes to Scope 0 4 0 4 1 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 4 0 2 0 1 0 5 0 3 0 6 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 5 0 4 0 6 0 5 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 6 0 6 0 6Incomplete Documents/Changes to Scope 0.4 0.4 1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6Quality of Plans 0.4 0.3 0.6 1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4Change Orders 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0 0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3Constructability Issues 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 -0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5Extreme Weather 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4Work Stoppages (Acts of God, War, & Public E 0.3 0.3 0.2 0 0.2 0.2 0.5 1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3Wage Increase 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3Jobsite Access 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
aOther External Problems 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 1 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2Bid Issues (Missing scope overly optimistic pro 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 3 1 0 4 0 3 0 1 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 3 0 2Bid Issues (Missing scope, overly optimistic pro 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2Motivation/Morale 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4Local Workforce Problems (such as lack of ski 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4Availability of Tools and Equipment 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0 -0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3Excessive Rework and Punchlist 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5Coordination of Layout and Rework of Own Wo 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4Vendor Deliveries 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
nOther Subcontractor Controlled Problems 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2Problematic Access to Specific Areas 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.1 1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6Building Interior Environment 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 7 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 2 0 2 0 5 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 4 1 0 4 0 3 0 4 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 4Building Interior Environment 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4Mechanical/Electrical/Plumbing Interference 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 1 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (Ge 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (Ge 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (Ge 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6Response Time to RFIs and Change Orders 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5Response Time to Submittals 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4Trade Stacking/Labor Congestion due to Other 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 1 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6Crowding/Labor Congestion of Own Crews 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6Congestion due to Materials and Equipment 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 3 0 3 0 5 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 2 0 5 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 2 0 7 0 3 0 7 0 5 0 3 0 5 0 4 0 4 0 8 0 8 1 0 5 0 4 0 6 0 6 0 6Congestion due to Materials and Equipment 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6Overtime 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4Added Shift Work 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1 0.4 0.3 0.4Out-of-Sequence Work 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 1 0.8 0.7Remobilizations/Go-Backs 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8 1 0.8Ramp Up/Ramp Down 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1
Red numbers represent very strong correlations of 0.5 or higher.Red numbers represent very strong correlations of 0.5 or higher.Black numbers represent strong correlations of 0.3 to 0.5Gray numbers represent weak correlations of 0 to 0.3
Correlation MatrixSimple Single
Linear RegressionsCalc Frag, Cong, Acc
tor
Correlation MatrixLogistic
Regression
Fact
ors
ract
or
Con
trac
t
Group Correlation Averages(1’ i l d d)
wne
r
xter
nal F
ubco
ntr
ener
al C(1’s not included)
O Ex Su G
Owner 0.443 0.287 0.229 0.338
External Factors 0.287 0.39 0.254 0.281
Subcontractor 0.229 0.254 0.346 0.331
General Contractor 0.338 0.281 0.331 0.443
Types of ImpactsTypes of Impacts
• 38 Total Variables38 Total Variables
– Causes, Effects, and Directs
• Incomplete or Incompetent Plans &• Incomplete or Incompetent Plans & Specifications, Poor Management
•Out of Sequence Work, Go Backs, etc…Out of Sequence Work, Go Backs, etc…
•Environmental Factors: Weather
– 2 Main Effects:2 Main Effects:
• Fragmentation Related
•Congestion Related•Congestion Related
Calculating Congestiong gSimple Single
Linear RegressionsCalc Frag, Cong, Acc
Correlation MatrixLogistic
Regression
What was the impact of: (Circle one value in each row)
None Low Moderate High Severe
Trade stacking (Labor congestion due to other 0 1 2 3 4
g ( gtrades)
0 1 2 3 4
Labor congestion of your crews 0 1 2 3 4
Congestions due to materials and equipment 0 1 2 3 4
Sum of circled scores:
Congestion Sum/3Congestion = Sum/3
Calculating FragmentationCalculating FragmentationSimple Single
Linear RegressionsCalc Frag, Cong, Acc
Correlation MatrixLogistic
Regression
What was the impact of: (Circle one value in each row)
None Low Moderate High Severe
Out of sequence work 0 1 2 3 4
Remobilization and Go Backs 0 1 2 3 4
Ramp Ups and Ramp Downs of labor forces 0 1 2 3 4
Sum of circled scores:
Fragmentation = Sum/3
Logistic Regression UsageSimple Single
Linear RegressionsCalc Frag, Cong, Acc
L i ti
)(b- 2211011loss)y (efficienc1groupin being ofy Probabilit xbxb
Correlation MatrixLogistic
Regression
• Similar to regular linear regression but better suited t thi bl h ki h th t
)(b 22110e1)y(g pgy xbxb
to this problem where we are asking whether or not a loss occurred
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) FM_Congestion_Mean .186 .196 .899 1 .343 1.204 FM_Fragmentation_Mean .599 .201 8.893 1 .003 1.821 Constant -.846 .268 9.989 1 .002 .429
Likelihood of Loss
Construction ClaimsConstruction Claims
Step 1: Provide compelling evidence that a loss wasStep 1: Provide compelling evidence that a loss was incurred
Step 2: Using detailed project specific records, p g p j p ,quantify the loss
This work is to be used for the first step to provide compelling evidence so as to move to Step 2
Alternate Use: Forward Pricing
• Variations of this work can be used to predict the productivity loss due to an upcoming change andproductivity loss due to an upcoming change and factor that into the engineering change order.
Observed Range of Impacts
Upper Range of typically observed productivity impacts on:
F i H i T iFraming Hanging Taping
Congestion 44% 40% 47%
Fragmentation 50% 41% 47%
Acceleration 42% 42% 47%
ProductivityProductivityStudy TipsStudy Tips
by by James T James T YandYand
Stafford Frey CooperStafford Frey Cooper
Pass The AmmoPass The Ammo
• Make sure your lawyer knows about the study• Make sure your lawyer knows about the study
• Productivity = ProfitProductivity Profit
What Wins Lawsuits?What Wins Lawsuits?
• Facts, Facts and More Facts
• Document the factors that impact productivity:
– Daily logs
– Pictures/video
– Emails
– Change Orders
– Written Notice to GC
What Do You Have To Prove?What Do You Have To Prove?
• Impact Claims
• Must Collect Data to Support Claim
• Document in Writing the Process• Document in Writing the Process
• Create a Paper Trial of What Happened and Why
Factors That HarmFactors That Harm
• Inspections that Delay
• Quality of the Plans/Specs/RFIs
• Weather
• Crowding/Interference
• Out of Sequence
• Remobilize
SolutionsSolutions
• Cover Delay in Subcontract
• Make sure Employees Are Trained
• Involve You Lawyer Early rather than Late• Involve You Lawyer Early rather than Late
• Use of Digital Diary
Profit EquationProfit Equation
Higher quality field documentation =
– proper pricing
– successful pricing
– strength in negotiation
– WIN ‐WIN
ChecklistChecklist• Include ALL your costs
– CoordinationSmall tools– Small tools
– Consumables– C/O preparation– Tool box– Warranty– As‐builtAs built– Degree of difficulty
• Accurate cost code to the CO work– include inefficiency– include out‐of‐sequence costs
• Negotiate labor firstNegotiate labor first– then equipment– then material
TipsTipsTipsTips
• No wishy‐washy answers from Owner
• Persistent, not pest
• Assure owner knows: make change, pay
• Be professional
• Squeaky Wheel Cycle‐all projects, settle when on top
• Negotiate early, not at end of project
– Owner out of money
– Amount too large
– Long time to get
Tips For Quick ResolutionTips For Quick Resolution• Claim prevention
• Proper DAILY documentation
• Monitoring daily documentation
• Computerized documentation
• Active role during construction
• Schedule monitoring
• Contract terms review
• Cost coding and cost controls
Questions?
Stafford Frey Cooper
Q
Stafford Frey Cooper3100 Two Union Square601 Union StreetS ttl WA 98101Seattle, WA 98101
Website: www.staffordfrey.comEmail: jyand@staffordfrey comEmail: [email protected]: 206.623.9900