Impacts of social protection on poverty reduction Social Security Summer School, ILO-ITC Turin...

Impacts of social protection on poverty reduction

Social Security Summer School, ILO-ITC TurinElective Course 13Week 2, Monday to Wednesday 3-5 October 2011, 14:00-17:00

Florence Bonnet and Christina BehrendtILO Social Security Department, Geneva

A. Introduction 0. Quick overview

Objectives and structure of the seminar

Impact of cash transfers on the reduction of poverty: A quick overview

Objectives Overview of the potential and limitations of micro-

simulations in the assessment of the possible impact of social transfers on poverty reduction

Includes some conceptual thinking behind (poverty concepts and measurement etc.)

In practice... Requirements: data needs (which survey types usually

contain the necessary information; how to find them; and how to use them?)

Assessment of possible impacts principles, steps, hypotheses, interpretation, limitations

Outline of the courseA. Introduction

0. Quick overview: objectives and structure of the seminar1. Linking poverty outcomes to policies: Social security

programmes and poverty reduction2. Elements of a wider process: country-level rapid assessment

B. Some basics3. Poverty and inequality: concepts and measurement4. Preparatory work for hands-on session

C. Simulating the possible impact of cash transfer programmes5. Hands-on exercises and discussion6. Scenarios and group work7. Presentations of group work results and discussion8. Presentation of more examples and discussion9. Working with survey data and other useful sources

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

A. Introduction 1. Linking poverty outcomes to policies:

Social protection programmes and poverty reduction

1.1 Evaluating the effects of social transfers on living standards

Ex-post assessment: Analysis of existing programmes or social security systems Effectiveness: Does the programme reach its

objectives? Efficiency: Does the programme achieve its objectives

in an optimal way? Ex-ante assessment: Preparing future reforms

Adjusting parameters of existing programmes Designing new social security benefits/schemes Enhancing the coordination between different schemes

within a social security system

1.2 Evaluating the effects of social transfers on living standards: Ex-post assessment (1)

Ex-post assessment: Analysis of existing programmes Effectiveness: Does the programme reach its

objectives? Coverage: e.g. which proportion of elderly receives

an old age pension? Benefit levels and effects: e.g. effects of old age

pensions on living standards of pensioners; effects of social assistance on overall poverty reduction

1.3 Evaluating the effects of social transfers on living standards: Ex-post assessment (2)

Efficiency: Does the programme achieve its objectives in an optimal way? Coverage: Are benefits going to those who should

receive them? (inclusion/exclusion errors) Benefit levels and effects: Are benefit levels

adequate to reach objectives? Costs: Does the programme reach its objectives in a

cost-effective way?

1.4 Evaluating the effects of social transfers on living standards: Ex-ante assessment (1)

Ex-ante assessment: Preparing for future reforms Adjusting parameters of existing programmes

How can the coverage of a social insurance scheme can be extended to still uncovered groups of workers?

Which benefit levels should be provided in order to effectively prevent poverty?

Designing new social security benefits/schemes How could a new social pension programme be designed? What is the most effective way to introduce child benefits?

Enhancing the coordination between different benefits within a social security system Identifying undue cumulation of benefits and coverage gaps

1.5 Evaluating the effects of social transfers on living standards: Ex-ante assessment (2)

Relevance of ex-ante assessments for establishing national social protection floors Identifying effective ways to close coverage gaps Assessing the possible impacts of a set of basic social

security guarantees on poverty reduction Assessing the interplay between different programmes

and identifying gaps Assessing several options for benefit levels and their

impact on poverty reduction Assessing the cost of a proposed reform and its

possible impact

1.6 Ex-ante assessment of impacts (1)

Ex-ante assessment of the impact of cash transfers on the reduction of poverty is....

a static micro-simulation of the (direct) impact of transfers on individual/household income/expenditure and poverty status

And is not.... a full assessment of the impact which would take

into account changes in people’s behaviour and further socio-economic effects

a Poverty Impact Assessment / Poverty and Social Impact Assessment (WB, OECD and others)

Example: Tanzania

21.7 24.3 23.9

19.6 19.9 20.9 20.4 23.2

27.1 30.0

33.3

19.3 15.1 16.5 16.2

13.8 14.6 14.0 14.4 16.0 18.1

20.6 22.7

14.1

-6.6 -7.8 -7.7 -5.8 -5.3 -6.9 -6.0 -7.3 -9.0 -9.3 -10.7

-5.2

-15

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Actual poverty rate Child benefit (7-14) and orphan benefit (0-14) Change in poverty rate

Source: Gassmann, F. and Behrendt, C., 2006: Cash benefits in low-income countries: Simulating the effects on poverty reduction for Senegal and Tanzania, Issues in Social Protection Discussion Paper (Geneva: International Labour Office).

The basic idea

pre-reform income

post-reform income

households

income

minimum income

threshold

1.7 Ex-ante assessment of impacts (2)

Why conducting ex-ante assessments of impacts? Estimating the likely effects of future reforms on people’s

incomes Testing different reform options

... without hurting anyone... Reflecting the interplay of different programmes with

household structures, employment, wages etc. Enhancing the effectiveness of future reforms

Preconditions Know how.... Availability of good survey data (see next section...)

A. Introduction 2. Element of a wider process

Rapid assessment at the country level

Poverty impact | The process

The impact assessment is one element of a wider process Identification of coverage gaps and needs Costing exercise to close the coverage gap Assessment of the potential impact of different options on the

reduction of poverty Feeds into national discussions

National dialogue including social partners and other stakeholders

Leading to a national social security extension strategy Aiming at building a national social protection floor… …progressively extending social security in line with

national conditions Iterative process

Sequential adaptation of assessment during the dialogue process to take into account new options considered

Assessment Matrix: structure

SPF objectives

Existing SP provision

What is foreseen in the SP Strategy

Gaps Agencies involved

PrioritiesDesign gaps

Implemen-tation gaps

Health

Children

Working age

Elderly

Social Protection Floor template: guarantees and objectives

Describe the present and planned social protection situation, taking into account SP strategy objectives

Identify design gaps (population not covered due to the lack of SP policy / legislation

Identify implementation gaps: dysfunction in existing policy and schemes (entitlements not meet, unavailability or lack of access to services

Basis for the preliminary costing and thr analysis of potential impacts on poverty reduuction

A consistent framework where all schemes and UN agencies support interventions can fit.

Mapping & sharing of responsibilities and activities among actors and more specifically One UN

Priority policy options to be decided through national dialogue on assessment results

The purpose of the assessment

Key questions Is there a SPF or some elements of the SPF in this country?

1. Inventory of schemes for the four guarantees: health, children, working age, elderly & disabled

How far has a country advanced in the implementation of the floor? 2. Analysis & identification of gaps

If the government plans to further develop its SPF, what should be done? 3. Recommendations

How much would it cost and what would be the impact in terms of the reduction of poverty and inequality? 4. Scenarios, costing and respective impacts

Vietnam Assessment Matrix

Vietnam Assessment Matrix Main results (1)

Health for all

Policy fully developed to achieve population coverage until 2014

No design gap as far as policy is concerned

But some implementation gaps: At present 60% covered but no

clear solution for the implementation the remaining 40% uncovered;

lack of comprehensive analysis of the delivery or supply of services (quality, availability and geographical access); and

need for a proper registration, data collection and monitoring system

Income security for children Higher poverty rate than the overall

poverty rate (22% against 14.5% on average)

Provision of various benefits: Under regular social assistance schemes

and the National Targeted Programme for Poverty Reduction (NTP-PR) few beneficiaries and low resources

Specific programmes such as school fee exemptions and

reductions for poor students. Over 10 per cent of children attending school benefiting

Loans for food for students living in poor households

Support for minority children for food, textbooks, notebooks

Health coverage under 6 years (included under health)

… but no general child benefit

Vietnam Assessment Matrix Main results (2)

Income security for people in working age Some design gaps

Unemployment insurance covering 10% of the labour force (limited to formal employment in enterprises of 10 or +)

maternity protection: 18% of the labour force (not all workers in formal employment)

Social assistance for the disabled and single parents: low coverage and minimal benefit (only 32,5% of the poverty line)

Some targeted programmes: housing and food support for minorities; and

Benefits to people with national merit

But no general income support for workers in informal employment Recommends to study the experience of India (100 days employment scheme)

Income security for the elderly Some benefits provided through:

Contributory pension covering 18% of the working age

20% of the 55/60+ receive an old age pension)

Targeted social assistance for the 80+ Some design gaps for the persons

aged 60-80 not covered by the contributory pension and the various targeted programmes groups under the NTPs

Some implementation gaps Non contributory pension:

closed to 40% of entitled beneficiaries not covered and

Low level of benefit = 2/3 of the poverty line

Under-declaration of wage level among formal workers

B. Some basics3. Poverty and inequality:

Concepts and measurements

3.1 Income and poverty | Definitions

Poverty measures can be grouped into four major categories: Economic: mainly monetary indicators of household well-being,

particularly food and non-food consumption or expenditure and income.

Social: Other non-monetary indicators of household well-being such as quality and access to education, health, other basic services, nutrition and social capital.

Demographic: These indicators focus on the gender and age structure of households, as well as household size

Vulnerability: focus on the level of household exposure to shocks that can affect poverty status, such as environmental endowment and hazard, physical insecurity, political change and the diversification and riskiness of alternative livelihood strategies.

Focu

s

3.1 Income and poverty How to measure poverty?

What are the respective advantages and disadvantages of different poverty concepts?

Which resources are assessed? Consumption Income Assets Multidimensional deprivation

How are they assessed? Objective measures Subjective measures

How to draw the line? Absolute poverty line Relative poverty line

3.1 Income and povertyExamples of indicators and tools

Income and consumption expenditure level and distribution: Quintiles, deciles, etc Gini coefficient

Poverty monetary main indicators Poverty headcount (poverty rate)

• Percentage of population below food poverty line• Percentage of the population below the basic needs

poverty line Poverty gap Poverty squared gap

Typical income distribution

3.2 Income & Poverty | Indicator of distributionExpenditure or Income quintiles / quartiles /deciles

“Quantiles” are a set of 'cut points' that divide a sample of data into groups containing (as far as possible) equal numbers of observations.

Main steps Divide population into ‘groups’ ranked from ‘poorest’ to ‘richest’ based on

expenditure (or income) Divide into 4 groups (25% of the population each): quartiles Divide into 5 groups (20% of the population each): quintiles Divide into 10 groups (10% of the population each): deciles

Sum for each group (equal proportion of the population) the total consumption (or income)

Calculate the share of the consumption expenditure for each specific group (quintile, quartile or decile) to the total consumption expenditure or income

Usual indicators Last quintile/decile - richest fifth/tenth of the population First quintile/decile - poorest fifth/tenth of the population Ratio Q5:Q1 for quintiles or Q4:Q1 for Quartiles

3.2 Income & Poverty | Gini Coefficient Definition

Gini coefficient or gini index The Gini index summarizes how equal or

unequal income or expenditure distribution is.

Gini index is calculated on a per capita basis

Higher values indicate greater inequality.

A Gini index of zero represents perfect equality and 1, perfect inequality.

The Gini index measures the area between the Lorenz curve and the hypothetical line of absolute equality, expressed as a percentage of the maximum area under the line.

Cumulative share of people from lowest to highest

incomes (Xi)

Cumulative share of income earned (or expenditure) (Yi)

10%

10%

G = 1 – 2B

Gini coefficient in Vietnam (total, urban, rural)Vietnam VHLSS 2008

0,41 0,41

0,39

0,40

0,36

0,37

0,380,39

0,33

0,34

0,35

0,36

0,37

0,38

0,39

0,4

0,41

0,42

2002 2004 2006 2008

Gin

i coe

ffici

ent Urban

Rural

3.2 Income & Poverty | Gini Coefficient

Urban versus rural

Inequality is highest in urban areas, lowest in rural areas

While poverty rates decrease notably in rural areas, inequalities increase over time

3.3 Income & Poverty | Poverty monetary indicators Definitions

Poverty headcount index (or poverty rate) the headcount index estimates the percentage of the population

living in households with per capita consumption expenditure (or per equivalent adult) below the poverty line.

it measures the incidence of poverty

Poverty gap The Poverty Gap Index expresses the total amount of money which

would be needed to raise the poor from their present incomes (c) to the poverty line (z), as a proportion of the poverty line, and averaged over the total population, which measures the depth of poverty

The aggregate poverty gap shows the cost of eliminating poverty by making perfectly targeted transfers to the poor. This total cost can be related to GDP.

The squared poverty gap measures the severity of poverty as the poorest households are given a greater weight in the equation.

3.3 Income & Poverty | Poverty monetory indicators Calculation

where n represents the total population, q the poor z the poverty line and c consumption expenditure

If the parameter α = 0, then the equation is simply the headcount index. With α = 1, the equation measures the poverty gap, which is the average income /

expenditure shortfall of the poor with respect to the poverty line. When α = 2, the equation represents a measure for the severity of poverty

Poverty rates, poverty gap and squared poverty gap formulae can be represented as follows:

Poverty rate = Q/N

With Q = total number of poor

Poverty gap index =

1/n* [(z-c)/z]

Squared Poverty gap =

1/n* [(z-c)/z]2

q

c<z

q

c<z

3.3. Poverty | Poverty rates in Viet Nam (1)

Poverty rate by urban rural and region calculated by income (Government poverty line)

2002 2004 2006 2008

Food poverty lines (in thousands per capita and per month)Rural 112 124 200 290

Urban 146 163 260 370

Poverty ratesRural Food poverty line 11,9 8,1

New government poverty line 21,2 18 16,1

Urban Food poverty line 3,9 3,3

New government poverty line 8,6 7,7 6,7

Total Food poverty line 9,9 6,9

New government poverty line 18,1 15,5 13,4

New Government poverty line adopted in 2006 and reported in 2004 for poverty rate calculation

Food poverty line

3.3. Poverty | Poverty rates in Viet Nam (2)

General poverty rate by urban rural and region calculated by expenditure

2002 2004 2006 2008

Rural 35,6 25 20,4 18,7

Urban 6,6 3,6 3,9 3,3

Total 28,9 19,5 16 14,5

35,6

25

20,418,7

6,63,6 3,9 3,3

28,9

19,516 14,5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2002 2004 2006 2008

Gen

eral

po

vert

y ra

te (

%) Rural

Urban

Total

Exercise based

on this one

Equivalence scales How to account for economies of scale?

Household income Equivalized income (how?) Per capita income

Choice of scale may have strong effects on measured poverty, especially for sub-groups of the population

Examples of equivalence scales: “classical OECD scale”:

head: 1, other adults: 0.7, children: 0.5 “modified OECD scale”:

head: 1, other adults: 0.5, children: 0.3 square root scale:

(number of hh members)0.5

More general: income / (hhsize)e

Equivalence scales: Effects on measured poverty rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

classical OECD scale

modified OECD scale

square root scale


modified OECD scale

square root scale


modified OECD scale

square root scale

Germany 1994 Sweden 1995 United Kingdom 1995

extreme poverty

severe poverty

moderate poverty

near poverty

Source: Behrendt, C., 2002: At the Margins of the Welfare State: Social Assistance and the Alleviation of Poverty in Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom (Aldershot: Ashgate).

Poverty gaps | Vietnam

General poverty gaps (calculated by expenditure)

Poverty profile

Objectives Analysing the relationship between poverty rates

and household’s or individual’s characteristics Demographic and composition of the household Situation in the labour market Housing conditions and access to basic services

Developing a picture of who are the most exposed to poverty

Comparison of poverty rates and poverty gaps between different groups of the population

14,5

2322,1

18,2

14,4

12,112,8

25,8

13,4 12,8

11,0

9,4 8,9 8,3

14,3

17,1 16,6

5,13,9 3,5 3,3

1,7

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Poverty profile | Poverty rates & socio-demo characteristics – Vietnam

Poverty rates by age range: highest poverty rates among

children (especially <6)

Poverty rates in the population aged 6+ not working: highest risk of

poverty among disabled

Poverty rates in the population aged 6+ working: higher general poverty rate than the non working Highest

poverty rates among the self employed in non registered enterprise (65% of total employment, 72% in rural areas)

and people working for other households (16%)

Poverty profile | Poverty rates by age and area of residence Vietnam

Typical U curve with higher

poverty rates among children

and elderly

Higher poverty rates in rural areas: between 5 to 7 times higher than in urban areas

B. Some basics4. Preparatory work for hands-on session:

How to become familiar with Excel formulas

Click session | Quiz

Question 1 | Would you say that Excel is Your favourite software… and has no secret for you Some horizontal and vertical lines Nice to do tables… possibly with one or two “=“ or “+” …. ?? Is it a new Hollywood master production?

Question 2 | Definition of a formula A formula is a mathematical equation used to calculate

a value Can be conditional Can be used to aggregate or redistribute values A formula can be ... magic None of the above 4 of the above

Quick exercice (1) | Context

We — the happy participants to the course n°13 — have the pleasure to celebrate our new ability to measure impact on poverty reduction of social security benefits and enjoy a delicious dinner Antipasti, Primi Piatti, Secondi Piatti and Dolci della Casa in Turnino…

Difficult to resist! Result: an impressive bill …. far too big to be paid by a single person and still many participants do not have Euros (not yet or not any more)

Solution by “speciality”: the bill is split between 3 persons by type of dishes José Manuel covers all Antipasti (1) Jane Chantal the Primi Piatti (2) Secondi Piatti (3)

and…… Chico the Dolci della casa (4) and drinks (5)….

Quick exercice (2) | Context

Please go into Excel file….. It is just training in prevision of tomorrow session

The Menu …… purely informative

The bill, basis of the exercise hasFive different colours = five codes1.Antipasti in blue2.Primi Piatti in red3.Secondi Piatti in green4.Dolci della casa in purple5.Drinks in orange

Quick exercice (3) | Questions

=SUM(C6:C50) Yesterday night unfortunately the

restaurant’ cash register has been stolen…. there is a computer with Excel but the owner of the restaurant was not available to participate in this course… so no total bill is provided but only the detailed dishes prices…

Question 1Please calculate the sum of the total bill

Quick exercice (2) | Questions =IF(E6=1,1,0) and

=IF(AND($E6=2,$E6=3),1,0) =IF(OR($E6=4,$E6=5),1,0) Alternative not used here =IF(OR($E6=2,$E6=3),1,0) Question 2

Based on the codes indicated in the excel file, identify the respective “dishes” to be paid respectively by José Manuel (1), Jane Chantal (2) & (3) and Chico (4) et (5)

= “simple formula” = $C6*F6 Question 3

After identification in question 2, allocate the amount by dish to the three “payers” … to sum the total amount to be paid respectively by José Manuel, Jane Chantal and Chico

Quick exercice (4) | Useful formula SUMIF

Question 4: Calculate the total amount to be paid respectively by José Manuel, Jane Chantal and Chico

How to? In Excel, the SumIf function adds all numbers in a range of

cells, based on a given criteria.Generic syntax: SumIf ( range, criteria, sum_range) range is the range of cells that you want to apply the

criteria against (e.g code of type of dishes or code of household associated to each dish)

criteria is used to determine which cells to add (e.g. list of codes for type of dishes).

sum_range are the cells to sum (amount per dish)

Quick exercice (5) | Useful formula SUMIF

Applications: 2 options …. both will be used tomorrow Option 1 [in Bill (original)]

=SUMIF(F6:F43,"=1",$C$6:$C$43) Sum the amount of dishes allocated to each of the 3

people in question 2 by column Option 2 [in Dishes category (original)]

=SUMIF ('Bill (original)'!$E$6:$E$43,$C$6:$C$10,'Bill (original)'!$C$6:$C$43)

'Bill (original)'!$E$6:$E$43: column of codes for each types of dishes (from 1 to 5) in ‘Bill (Original)’ sheet

$C$6:$C$10 Column with 5 values = list of individual codes for types of dishes in ‘Dishes category (original)’

$C$6:$C$43 Column of respective prices for dishes

Quick exercice (6) | Question 5 — redistribution

VLOOKUP

SituationItaly just wins the football world cup and to celebrate this great news, the Ristorante Il Leccio offers a percentage reduction by type of dishes

Question 5Reallocate for each dish the percentage reduction applied depending to the category it belongs to

VLOOKUP | Redistribution of per capita value of benefit to each individual HH member (1)

ObjectiveSearches for a value in the first column of a table array and returns a value in the same row from another column in the table array.

The V in VLOOKUP stands for vertical. Use VLOOKUP instead of HLOOKUP when your comparison values are located in a column to the left of the data that you want to find.

Syntax: =VLOOKUP(lookup_value,table_array,col_index_num,range_lookup)

Lookup_value The value to search in the first column of the table array Table_array Two or more columns of data. Use a reference to a range

or a range name. The values in the first column of table_array are the values searched by lookup_value. These values can be text, numbers, or logical values.

Col_index_num The column number in table_array from which the matching value must be returned

Range_lookup A logical value that specifies whether you want VLOOKUP to find an exact match or an approximate match (use FALSE)

C. Simulating the possible impact of cash transfer programmes

5. Hands-on exercises and discussion

Poverty line = 500

Total population (42)

Non poor (30)

Poor (12)

Poverty rate12/(30+12) = 29%

Gap

Indi

500-230 = 270 Total poverty gap

c<z

Gap Indi

= 2510

400

200

420

180230

250300

200220220

420450

Poverty impact | OverviewInitial situation

Total poverty gap ratio

(2510/500)/42=11.9%

Poverty impact | OverviewInitial situation

Poverty line = 500

Total population (42)

Non poor (30)

Poor (12)

400

200

420

180230

250300

200220

220

420

450

Social cash benefit provided: targeted benefit of 200 to all poor people enable to work ….. and living alone

Poor (10)

Poverty rate10/42 = 24%

New

Total poverty gap

c<z

Gap Indi

= 2180

New

400

200180230

250300

200220

420

620

420

650

Non poor (32)

Simplified example of people living alone .... With no redistribution of benefit among household members

Total poverty gap ratio

(2180/500)/42=10.3%

Poverty impact analysis | Steps

1) Data file ready for use and key variables identified

2) Analysis of the initial situation « ex-ante »3) Define and identify target groups for the new benefit (s)4) Define benefit(s): type and amount5) Add the new benefit amount to the income or

consumption expenditure ex-ante

6) Aggregation of individual (or equivalent) income or consumption expenditure « ex-post » at the household level

7) Redistribution of this amount (per capita or per equivalent adult) among household members

8) Calculation of distribution and poverty indicators « ex-post »

Household level

Pre-requisite

Indi

vidu

al

leve

l

Pre-requisite | Ready to use data file (1)

… it is not … A black box Necessarily transparent

not always one single file but a collection of files .... to merge

not always in line with official results presented in national reports

.. So it is sometimes … a puzzle in Vietnamese or

Nepalese to “reconstruct” on the basis of associated documents

… to come to this stage of « ready for use » can sometimes be the hardest and longest part of the process

Hands on | Excel files

Excel files for exercises Groups

Several groups working on the same Excel file but testing various benefits

Excel file One file with mainly two sheets

Household level sheet Individual level sheet

Built from the Viet Nam Living Standard Survey 2008 (sub-sample)

Quick access to all other sheets in the Excel file..... An overview

Step 1 | … the excel file a quick guided tour

Main formula: explanation and applied formula

Main parameters: poverty line, benefit amount, etc.

Main results

One line = one individual

Random sampling from the VHLSS 2008 (10% of the original datafile) for training purposes (DON’T DO THAT FOR A REAL ANALYSIS)

Original sample size: 38,253 (total population: 86,312,257)

Selected subsample for the exercise: 3,878 (10%)

Total number households in the original sample: 9,189 (20,960,121 households at the national level)

Step 1 | Excel file — File 1 at the individual level

The individual datafile

Variables to identify individuals and households

# Ind_ID Unique ID for each individual

# HH_ID Unique Household ID

Link with the HH datasheet for the aggregation of each individual income/expenditure at the household level

From the sample to the total population

WEIGHT Adjusting for non-response

Adjusting for external information notably some proportions known in the total population for key variables selected when defining the sampling (e.g distribution of the population by region, district obtained from a recent census or an extrapolation of the most recent one

#H: Household size: total number of household members

Per capita basis calculation

No equivalent scale used in Viet Nam for poverty analysis

#I – M: basic socio-demo characteristics

Total annual consumption expenditure per capita in thousands of VND

Poverty rates and gaps, quintiles and gini are calculated on an individual basis

HH

Pre-requisite | Excel file | File 2 at the household level

The household datafile

One line = 1 household

# HH_ID Unique Household ID / identifiant unique de chaque ménage

Link with the Individual datasheet for the aggregation of each individual income/expenditure at the household level

From the sample to the total population

WEIGHTHH for household

WEIGHTHH= WEIGHTIND * HHSIZE

#C: Household size: total number of household members

Per capita basis calculation

#D: Total consumption expenditure at the household level =

SUM of individual per capita expenditure pre-benefit for all household members

Click session | Quiz 2

Question 3 | First impression Super, the steps are clear and I am fully ready to jump in to step 2 Well, why do we have two separate sheets??? From which one should I

start? Break! I need a break

Question 4 | Which are the essential variables to carry out an impact analysis on poverty reduction? Identification variables: individual and household id Weight variable Size of household Some individual characteristics: Sex, age, depending on the eligibility

criteria used for the benefits The income or consumption expenditure variable used to determine

poverty status All of the above All minus one of the above

Click session | Quiz 2

Question 5 | Structure of the individual level table In the individual table, each row represents an individual who can initially be

poor or not, and who can potentially be a future beneficiary In the individual table, each column provides some information about the

personal characteristic of all the individuals included in the sub-sample One of several lines of the individual tables correspond to one row of the

household table (individuals who live in the same household) All of the above

Question 6 | Working with a Sample survey means that Each line in the individual file represents one person at the national level Each line in the household file represents an household level Each line in the individual file is representative of a number of individuals at

the national level equals to the value of the WEIGHT variable (for this individual/line)

All of the above None of the above

Click session | Quizz 2

Question 7| What is the next step? Calculate the initial poverty rate and eventually some poverty distribution

indicators from the individual table Discuss parameters of possible benefit to provide to defined target groups Look for resources to finance the future benefit or change in existing

programme Think of arguments to convince relevant ministries about the need of a new

social protection benefit

Question 8 | How do I go from the individual to the household level and vice-versa The individual_id is the key variable The household_id is the key variable The household size is the key variable All of the above

Click session | Quizz 2

Question 9 | Why do I have to deal with both individual and household levels? Because of the redistribution effect Benefit are provided to individuals, and poverty is calculated at the

individual level => I do not need to deal with household level Because it makes the whole process more complicated

Question 10 | The analysis of Impacts of social protection on poverty reduction can be appropriate to Adjust parameters of existing programmes Design new social security benefits/schemes Determine exactly what benefit will be able to eliminate poverty at

the lower cost All of the above 2 of the above

Poverty impact analysis | Step 2





7) Redistribution of this total amount among household members (per capita or per equivalent adult)


Individual level

Step 2 | Simple analysis of the initial situation “ex-ante” (1)

Poverty line

Viet Nam national 2008 poverty line in national currency in Viet Nam 280 000 VND per month 3360 thousands VND per year

(consumption expenditure in the excel file are annual)

Calculation on a per capita basis


Objective: Calculate the initial poverty rate (before benefit) for the total population and by main age groups

Identification of children, working age and elderly and quantification of these groups

Identification of the poor Sum of poor population (do not forget the weight) Summary of initial poverty rates by group


How to? Identification of main age groups

In Excel file columns S to AD (can concentrate on main groups for children)

Formula: =IF($K6> Parameters!$C$28,1,0) With $K6: absolute address of age column in individual file Parameters!$C$28: maximum age of the working age in

“parameters”. Any age superior to this value is part of the elderly group

Allocate 1 for elderly, 0 otherwise Quantification of main age groups (e.g. Quantification of the

elderly) Formula: = $S6*$F6

With $S6 : identification of elderly $F6 Weight variable = representation of this individual in the

sample to the all population

Step 2 | Identified poor individuals. Useful formula (3) reminder

Useful formula: IF AND/OR

Example of syntax Identification of individuals between 16 and 64 =IF(AND($K6>Parameters!$C$22,

$K6<Parameters!$C$21),1,0)

With• $K = Age variable (by fixing the column

« $ » but not the line)• Parameters!$C$22: 15 years old• Parameters!$C$22: 65 years old


How to? Identification and quantification of the poor

Columns AF (identification) and AG (quantification) in excel Formula: =IF($P6<Parameters!$C$54,1,0)

With $P6: absolute address of consumption expenditure per capita Annual consumption expenditure per capita in thousands VND in

Vietnam Parameters!$C$54: Poverty line in the corresponding unit

in the parameters sheet Allocate 1 for poor, 0 otherwise

Quantification of total number of poor Formula: = $AF6*$F6

With $AF6 : identification of the poor *$F6 Weight variable = extrapolation to the all population


How to? Calculation of the poverty rate for the population and for

sub age groups Numerator: number of poor

For total number of poor: Simple SUM at the end of column AG

=SUM($AG$6:$AG$3883) For total number of poor by main age group

=SUMIF('Raw data Individuals'!$W$6:$W$3883,"=1”,'Raw data Individuals'!$AG$6:$AG$3883)eg : sum the poor only for children

Denominator: total population (F), total number of elderly (T), working age (W) Sum of the respective columns

Step 2 | Simple analysis of the initial situation “ex-ante” (8) | Poverty gap

Reminder ! Poverty gap The Poverty Gap Index expresses the total amount of

money which would be needed to raise the poor from their present incomes (c) to the poverty line (z), as a proportion of the poverty line, and averaged over the total population, which measures the depth of poverty

The aggregate poverty gap shows the cost of eliminating poverty by making perfectly targeted transfers to the poor. This total cost can be related to GDP.

The squared poverty gap measures the severity of poverty as the poorest households are given a greater weight in the equation.


How to: Main steps For the poorCalculate the difference between the consumption expenditure per

capita and the poverty line (column AI for total population) Formula:

=IF($AF6=1,(Parameters!$C$54-'Raw data Individuals'!$P6),0) With

$AF6=1 : identification of the poor Parameters!$C$54-'Raw data Individuals'!$P6: difference to reach the poverty line

The sum of this column = The total aggregate poverty gap ; i.e. the cost of eliminating poverty by making perfectly targeted transfers to the poor


Calculate the poverty gap ratio Calculate the poverty gap ratio for each individual by dividing

the by the poverty line (Column AR in excel file) Formula: =AI6/Parameters!$C$54

AI = Difference between individual consumption expenditure and poverty line ()

Parameters!$C$54 : poverty line

Sum (taking into account the weight variable) column AI for all individual and divide by total population Formula: SUMPRODUCT and simple division


Useful formula SUMPRODUCT Take into account the « WEIGHT » variable

Total poverty gap=SUMPRODUCT($AI$6:$AI$3883,$F$6:$F$3883) / $F$3885*100

With• $AI$6:$AI$3883 = sum of all poor of the

difference betweenn consumption expenditure and poverty line.

• $F$6:$F$3883 : weight variable to extrapolate to the total population

• / $F$3885*100 : divided by total population


6. Scenarios for group work

82

Which benefits could contribute to close coverage gaps as part of the SPF? Group work: National task force

You are: National Social Protection Task Force

for the Reduction of Poverty Composed of

1-2 national experts (quantitative analyses) 1-2 representatives of the Ministry of Labour and Social

Affairs 1-2 representatives of the Ministry of Finance 1-2 representatives of the Ministry of Planning Representatives of social partners and other stakeholders

as appropriate Task force elects spokesperson responsible for the

presentation to Cabinet

83


ToRs for the Tasks Force: Provide an ex-ante assessment of one of the following reform options: Income security for the elderlyGroup 1 Non-contributory pension for all elderly (universal social

pension)Group 2 Non-contributory pension for all poor elderly (targeted old

age pension) Income security for childrenGroup 3 Child benefits to all children (universal benefits)Group 4 Child benefits to poor children (targeted child benefits)

Note: The exact specification of each benefit may be adapted as appropriate if there are good reasons to do so (explain!).


Your tasks1. Depending on the benefit scenario chosen, define an initial set of

parameters (selection of beneficiaries, benefit levels, etc.) and justify why you have chosen these parameters

2. Simulate “your” benefit and assess the impact on poverty reduction for the whole population and specific subgroups

3. Discuss the design of “your” benefit within the Task Force taking into account considerations from different perspectives.

4. If necessary, adjust your initial set of parameters and recalculate until you have reached an acceptable solution.

Your presentation (max. 5 minutes)1. Explain the design of “your” benefit (selection of beneficiaries, benefit

levels etc.) and your reasoning behind this choice.2. Present the results of your simulation.3. Provide recommendations with regard to the implementation of

“your” benefit as part of a national social protection floor.

Poverty impact analysis | Step 3, 4 & 5


2) Analysis of the initial situation « ex-ante »

3) Define and identify target groups for the new benefit (s)4) Define benefit(s): type and amount5) Add the new benefit amount to the income or





Individual level

Steps 3&4 | Define and identify target groups and the benefit(s) provided (1)

Question : Which benefit(s) for who?1) Define and identify target groups

a) Individuals or householdb) By age group, situation on the labour market or status in

employment, ability to work or not, etc

2) Define benefit or benefits

a) Type of benefit and amount– Cash or in in-kind

– Estimate of corresponding cash value of a benefit in-kind– Relative or absolute value– If relative value: expressed as a proportion of the poverty line; of

minimum wage or any other value of reference– Value depending on household structure?

b) Means-tested, targeted or universal– If means-tested: perfect targeting of poor population or simulation

of an imperfect targeting more close to reality such proxy means-tests (suppose availability of appropriate indicators)

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Steps 3&4 | Simple examples of benefits

How to fix eligible age? For pension

Legal retirement age for existing contributory pension Based on detailed analysis of poverty profile among

elderly Cost versus impact on poverty reduction Any other?

For Child benefit Based on detailed analysis of poverty profile among

children, cost versus impact on poverty reduction Various benefits for different ages according to

schooling age or not, any other?


Universal versus perfect targeted old age pension Pro and coins?

Steps 3&4 | Define and identify target groups and the benefit(s) provided (2)

Some particular cases …1) Change in an existing benefit

a) Identification of actual beneficiaries for this benefit: Option 1: the identification variable is available in the survey (rare) Option 2: usually, find some proxy variables to identify this group of the

population

b) Calculation of the additional cost resulting from the change in the benefit level Example: Viet Nam: increase in the level of the contributory

pension

2) Benefit for the populations not yet covered

1) Important in countries where the proportion of the population covered by existing social security provision represents a significant proportion (more than 10 per cent).

2) Identification of actual beneficiaries in order to exclude them from the target group of the new benefit (simulated) Or provide them with a lower level of benefit (for the new benefit)

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Universal versus perfect targeted old age pension Columns BK (universal) and BL (perfect targeting) in Excel In case of universal pension

Principle: a benefit of a given amount (to be fixed – parameters sheet) provided to all elderly (60+ or 65+ or any other age limit to be defined)

=Parameters!$E$94*$S6• =Parameters!$E$94 : level of benefit for the elderly

pension• $S6: identification of the elderly (1 if elderly, 0 otherwise)

In case of means-tested pension (perfect targeting….. Theory!) =Parameters!$E$94*$AF6*$S6

• The only difference if the selection of the poor only (AF6)

Poverty impact analysis | Step 6 1) Data file ready for use and key variables identified


3) Define and identify target groups for the new benefit (s)

4) Define benefit(s): type and amount

5) Add the new benefit amount to the income or consumption expenditure ex-ante




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Step 6 | Aggregation of individual (or equivalent) consumption expenditure « ex-post » - household level

6) Aggregation of ex-post consumption expenditure at the household level

Household level

a) From individual consumption to household aggregate consumption

– Hypothesis 3: distribution of the individual benefit for a shared and equal consumption among all household members

– Aggregation of new individual consumption expenditure (INDexp_post1 = INDexp_0 + Benef1) at the household level

– For each household = HHexp = ∑ INDexp_post1 (of each household member)

b) Calculate consumption expenditure post benefit per capita (or equivalent adult)

New consumption expenditure per capita =∑ INDexp_post1 / household size (or sum equivalent adult values)

Step 6 | Aggregation of individual (or equivalent) consumption expenditure « ex-post » - household level

6) Aggregation of consumption expenditure at the household level. How to?

Household level

< Raw data Individuals< Household level (“HHBasis”)

= sum of individual consumption expenditure in the household HHId « 118 »

67221 = 24647+21287+21287

Poverty impact | Step 6 household level useful formula (2)

Useful formula SUMIF

Syntax SUMIF (HH_ID in individual file, HH_ID in HH file, Expenditure in

individual file) SUMIF (range,criteria, sum_range)

With Range: the range of cells that you want to apply the criteria

against (e.g household id code in the Individual sheet | Column D)

criteria: used to determine which cells to add (e.g. corresponding HH_Id in the household basis sheet “HHBasis” column B

Sum_range: are the cells to sum (amount of ex-post individual consumption expenditure in individual basis sheet column BN)

Poverty impact | Step 6 household level useful formula (2)

Useful formula| application =SUMIF('Raw data Individuals'!$D$6:$D$3883,"="&HHbasis!

$A7,'Raw data Individuals'!$BN$6:$BN$3883)

'Raw data Individuals'!$D$6:$D$3883: HH_ID at the individual level (same value for all household members (for a given household)

"="&HHbasis!$A7: = HH_ID at the household level (household sheet “HHbasis” where one line = 1 household)

'Raw data Individuals'!$BN$6:$BN$3883: Column/ expenditure variable post benefit

Result: sum for each household of consumption expenditure post benefit

Last step: Calculate the new per capita (or equivalent adult) value (Columns I and J in the case of the elderly universal or means tested old age pension)

Poverty impact analysis | Step 7





7) Redistribution of this total amount (per capita or per equivalent adult) among household members


Individual level

Step 7 | Redistribution of this total amount among household members

< Household level (“HHBasis”)< Raw data IndividualsRedistribution of consumption

expenditure post benefit per capita (calculated for each household) to each household member (in the individual sheet).

New basis for the calculation of poverty indicators post benefit

Step 7 | From households to individualsUseful formula: VLOOKUP (1)

VLOOKUP Syntax

VLOOKUP(lookup_value,table_array,col_index_num,range_lookup)

With• Lookup_value : The value to search in the first column of the

table array • Table_array: Two or more columns of data. Use a reference

to a range or a range name. The values in the first column of table_array are the values searched by lookup_value. These values can be text, numbers, or logical values.

• Col_index_num: The column number in table_array from which the matching value must be returned.

• Range_lookup: A logical value that specifies whether you want VLOOKUP to find an exact match or an approximate match (use FALSE)

Step 7 | From households to individualsUseful formula: VLOOKUP (2)

VLOOKUP | application =VLOOKUP($D$6:$D$3883,HHbasis!$B$7:$I$933,HHbasis!$I$2,

FALSE)

($D$6:$D$3883 Column HH_ID at the individual level (the same for all household members of a given household)

HHbasis!$B$7:$I$933 Table with as a first column (reference) the HH_id at the household level (Hhbasis) and the last column the one with per capita consumption expenditure post benefit to realocate to each household member of a given household (HH_ID)

HHbasis!$I$2 = nième column in the table indicated above. 9 if column 9.

FALSE Take into account the exact value in the cell ... It is much easier in SPSS or STATA!

Poverty impact | Step 8In

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« « ex post »

Go!



3) Define and identify target groups for the new benefit (s)

4) Define benefit(s): type and amount

5) Add the new benefit amount to the income or consumption expenditure ex-ante





7. Presentation of results of group work


Your tasks1. Depending on the benefit scenario chosen, define an initial set of

parameters (selection of beneficiaries, benefit levels, etc.) and justify why you have chosen these parameters

2. Simulate “your” benefit and assess the impact on poverty reduction for the whole population and specific subgroups

3. Discuss the design of “your” benefit within the Task Force taking into account considerations from different perspectives.

4. If necessary, adjust your initial set of parameters and recalculate until you have reached an acceptable solution.

Your presentation (max. 5 minutes)1. Explain the design of “your” benefit (selection of beneficiaries, benefit

levels etc.) and your reasoning behind this choice.2. Present the results of your simulation.3. Provide recommendations with regard to the implementation of

“your” benefit as part of a national social protection floor.


8. Presentation of more examples and discussion

Viet Nam: Simulating the cost of closing the Gap: The elderly

Income security for the elderly: 2 scenariosPension benefit at the level of the poverty line for all uncovered elderly

– Changes recommended (vis-à-vis existing schemes)– Lower the age (from 80 to 65) with progressive

implementation until 2020– Increase the level of benefit: from 270 to poverty line level

(500 thousands dongs per month in urban areas in 2011 and 400 thousands dongs per month in rural areas)

Scenario 2 = Scenario 1 50 percent of the poverty line level for elderly

benefiting from the contributory pension

Viet Nam: Simulating the cost of closing the Gap: the elderly (scenario 2)

Additional cost as percentage of GDP Additional cost as percentage of general government expenditure

Alternative scenario: Elderly universal pension at the level of the poverty line for ALL elderly with reduced level for pensioners of the contributory scheme and progressive reduction of eligible age to reach 65+ in 2020

Income security and return to employment for working age population

Comprehensive benefit package for the working age for workers in informal employment and disabled

– Employment guarantee scheme of 100 days per household per year– Benefit level: minimum wage for 100 days / 220 working days per household (2 adults on

average per household)

– Employment & training service available including training allowances to facilitate return to employment and creation of micro-enterprises

– Estimate of the cost of employment & training service: 2 staff per county & urban district (682) + non-staff costs

– Social assistance for those who are unable to work (3,7% of population has a severe disability):

– Benefit level: Increase in the level of existing benefits for people with disabilities to the level of the poverty line and cover those who are not covered at present

Implemented gradually over a period of 4 years

Viet Nam: Simulating the cost of closing the Gap: The working-age population

Viet Nam: Simulating the cost of closing the Gap: working-age population

Employment guarantee scheme of 100 days per household per year and social assistance for those who are unable to work


Viet Nam: Simulating the cost of closing the Gap: Children (Scenario 2)

Income security for Children | targeted scenarioComprehensive benefit package targeted at POOR children aged 0-15 (based on child poverty line = 22 percent)

– Child allowance for all children aged 0-15 years old:– Benefit level: between 30-50% of minimum wage depending on age group (0-5/ 6-

10/ 11-15) as an incentive against child labour– Additional education services for children in communities that are lacking

schools or kinder-gardens – Education services: 1 additional teacher per 20 children + non-staff costs

– One meal + take-home ration for all poor children in school (aged 5-15 yrs old)– 50% of poverty line per child

Scenario 2 = Scenario 1 but limited to 2 children per poor households

Implemented gradually over a period of 5 years (20 % coverage each year)

Viet Nam: Simulating the cost of closing the Gap: Children (Scenario 2)

Child allowance and benefits in kind for all poor children aged 0-15 years old (scenario 1)


Viet Nam: Closing the gapTotal cost of the benefit package

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Viet Nam: The impact of filling the SPF gap on the general government deficit

Impact on general government deficit

Poverty impact | Impact on poverty rates Viet Nam

Base: SPSS data file | total sample and simulation of impact of the detailed benetits as presented in the costing exercise

Reduction in the poverty rate

Initial poverty ratePost Elderly universal pension

Post Means tested for all poor children

Post 100 days guarantee for the working age

Poverty impact | Useful indicators

Some useful indicators Total aggregate poverty gap

Shows the cost of eliminating poverty by making perfectly targeted transfers to the poor.

Indicators This total cost can be related to GDP Broken down in sub-poverty gaps (e.g.; by age groups)

to analyse the composition of total poverty gap Comparison between expenditure to provide the

benefit and the reduction of poverty gap

Total COSTS (benefit + admin costs)Ratio =

Poverty gap reduction (initial poverty gap – new poverty gap)

Viet Nam: Poverty impact Cost versus reduction of total poverty gap

Initial aggregate poverty gap

Aggregate poverty gap post universal

elderly benefit

Aggregate poverty gap post means

tested child benefit

Zambia Impact on poverty reductionInitial situation [1]

On a household basis in 2010, 36% of the households are

in extreme poverty and 54% are considered as poor (combining extreme and moderate poverty).

Among the most critical situations are the households headed by elderly people in rural areas or households composed only of elderly people. In both cases more than 50 percent are in extreme poverty and around three quarters are poor (considering both extreme and moderate poor).

Zambia Impact on poverty reductionInitial situation [2]

On an individual basis 67% of ederly aged 60+ are

poor (46% in extreme poverty)

This proportion reaches 77% among elderly in rural areas (55% of extreme poverty)

Zambia Impact on poverty reductionInitial situation: where do elderly live?

The majority of the elderly are living within their extended family either with the younger generation of working age (61 percent) or within a three generations household (22 percent).

Only 6 percent of the elderly live in household composed exclusively of people aged 60 and over

Zambia Impacts of universal old age pension on poverty reduction | Options for static micro simulation

Eligible age for the pension 60+ years 65+ years 70+ years

Levels of monthly benefits 60 000 Kwacha per month

benefit level for the the elderly pension Katete pension 100 000 Kwacha per month

extreme poverty line in 2010 150 000 Kwacha per month

Total poverty line 2010

Source: LCMS data

Zambia | Impacts of universal old age pension on extreme poverty reduction

Zambia | Impacts of universal old age pension on extreme poverty gap reduction

Zambia | Impacts of universal old age pension on poverty rates by age range

Policy implications for building national social protection floors

Assessments are a useful tool to feed in the national dialogue on the extension of social security and on building national social protection floors Reflect the combined effects of a set of benefits on the

realities of households Allow for interaction with household structures and

employment patterns But: need to be aware of its limitations

Possibility of transforming assessment methodology into policy monitoring tools to support implementation Extremely useful if done seriously


9. Working with survey data (2) and other useful sources and references

Microdata | Sources: which surveys?

Do not look for ONE data file and ANY variable on expenditure or income, but for THE data file used at the national level to carry out the poverty analysis and the variable(s) used to determine the poverty rate at the national level

Application-oriented and not (purely academic) research Work with national data and initial statistics that are used

at the national level Population: level and distribution by age and geographic

areas Initial poverty rate and other related indicators used and

shared in the country Types of surveys

Income and expenditure surveys or equivalent

Microdata | Some examples of typical surveys to be used for impact analysis

Country National statistical offices / Surveys

Egypt Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) Survey: Egypt, Arab Rep., Integrated Household Survey (EIHS)

Ghana Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) Survey: Ghana Living Standards Survey

Kenya Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) Survey: Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIBHS)

Burkina Faso Institut National de la Statistique et de la Démographie (INSD) Survey: Enquête Annuelle sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages au Burkina Faso en 2005

Cameroun Direction de la statistique et de la comptabilité nationale/ Institut National de la Statistique INS Survey: Troisième enquête camerounaise auprès des ménages ECAM3, 2007

El Salvador Direccion General de Estadistica y Census (DGEC) Survey : Encuesta de Hogares de Propósitos Múltiples (EHPM)

Mexico National Statistics Bureau (NSB) Survey :

Mozambique National Institute of Statistics (NIS) Survey : Inquérito Sobre Orçamento Familiar 2008/9 | More

Country National statistical offices / Surveys

Namibia Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) Survey : Namibia Household Income & Expenditure Survey

Nepal Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) Survey : Living Standard Survey 2003/2004

Tanzania National statistical office, NSO | More Survey: Tanzania Household Budget Survey (HBS)

Uruguay Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (INE) | More Survey: Uruguay- Encuesta Continua de Hogares

Viet Nam General statistics office of Viet Nam | More Survey : VHLSS 2008 | More

Zambia Central Statistical Office (CSO) | More Survey : Zambia Living Conditions Monitoring Survey 2010

Microdata | Where to find them? (1)

National institute of statistics More and more countries developed a data catalog with

sometimes a direct access to micro data in SPSS or STATA format Links to national statistical offices:

http://laborsta.ilo.org/links_content_E.html#m2

International sources (1) ISHN | International Household Survey Network

Survey catalog (http://www.ihsn.org/home/index.php?q=activities/catalog/surveys)

Survey questionnnaires (http://www.ihsn.org/home/index.php?q=country_questionnaires)

Recently: Household survey data catalog (http://www.ihsn.org/adp/index.php?q=nada-activities )

Microdata | Where to find them? (2)

International sources (2) World Bank Central Microdata Catalog

The Central Microdata Catalog is a portal for all datasets held in catalogs maintained by the World Bank and a number of contributing external repositories http://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/home

Europe: Luxembourg Income Study LIS is home to the Luxembourg Income Study Database and the Luxembourg Wealth Study Database: harmonised microdata from high- and middle-income countries around the world. (http://www.lisdatacenter.org/ )

From GESS | Statistics page http://www.socialsecurityextension.org/gimi/gess/ShowTheme.do?tid=10 Social protection in regular national household

surveys: questionnaires, types of questions and links to resources (including microdata when possible) ttp://www.socialsecurityextension.org/gimi/gess/ShowWiki.do?wid=72

GESS | Social protection in regular national household surveys: questionnaires, types of questions and links to resources

Information organized by

region country

Access to main resources

questionnaires survey reports microdata when

available webspace dedicated

to the survey updated on a regular

basis

Assessing impact on poverty reduction | some references (1)

ILO studies ILO: Viet Nam. Compatibility analysis of the national Social Protection

Strategy and the UN Social Protection Floor Initiative, Costing and financial projections to implement social protection policies 2011-2020, draft report. http://www.socialsecurityextension.org/gimi/gess/RessFileDownload.do?ressourceId=25381

ILO: Zambia. Introduction of a Universal Pension Scheme . Section 5. Impact of the universal old age pension on poverty reduction http://www.socialsecurityextension.org/gimi/gess/RessFileDownload.do?ressourceId=25382

Gassmann, F. and Behrendt, C., 2006: Cash benefits in low-income countries: Simulating the effects on poverty reduction for Senegal and Tanzania, Issues in Social Protection Discussion Paper (Geneva: ILO), http://www.socialsecurityextension.org/gimi/gess/RessFileDownload.do?ressourceId=6813

Broader Poverty impact assessment (PIA) Promoting Pro-Poor growth: A Practical Guide to ex-ante Poverty Impact

Assessment | Access to resources / download guide

Assessing impact on poverty reduction | some references (2)

The Poverty impact “webspace” (Gess)

Access to main resources associated to this course: Excel files, documents, guides and examples

http://www.socialsecurityextension.org/gimi/gess/ShowProjectPage.do?pid=1235

GESS | Social transfers matrix

Social transfers impact web space A matrix

presents available evidence on the effects of different social transfers programs around the world

a desk review on the social transfers domain which consists of quotes extracted directly from the literature reviewed

No restriction was applied but the Matrix does not pretend to be exhaustive

A search engine by type of effects, specific groups, main target groups (children, working age, elderly),country or region

A List of Social Transfers Programs: snapshot of a significant number of social transfer initiatives around the world

An extensive list of Bibliographical Resources on social transfers programs (available for download)


Social transfers matrix

presents available evidence on the effects of different social transfers programs around the world


Impacts classified by effects (poverty

impact, health, education, participation on the labour market, etc.)

Specific groups Main target

groups (children, working age elderly)

Category of programmes

GESS | Social transfers matrix Examples

Income level and stimulation of consumption Bolsa Familia As a result, the program has also demonstrated a

significant impact on poverty (...) Results of the annual household survey (PNAD 2004) show that the BFP accounted for (...) 16% of the recent fall in extreme poverty'. (Lindert et al, 2007, p. 116).

The nuts and bolts of Brazilian Bolsa Família programme: Implementing conditional cash transfers in a decentralized context Lindert, K. - Linder, A. - Hobbs, J. - Brière, B. - 2007 effects (poverty impact, health, education, participation on the labour market, etc.)

Progresa (Programa de Educacion, Salud y Alimentacion) | Oportunidades"

The conditional cash transfers [Bolsa Família, Oportunidades and Chile Solidario] proved to be an important inequality-reducing factor in all three countries. With a share of about 0.5 per cent of total income in Brazil and Mexico and much less in Chile, the CCTs were responsible for 21 per cent of inequality reduction in Brazil and Mexico and 15 per cent in Chile. (Soares et al, 2007: 17).

Conditional cash transfers in Brazil, Chile and Mexico: Impacts upon inequality "Soares, S. - Osório, R. - Soares, F. - Medeiros, M. - Zepeda, E. " - 2007


Child Support Grant `In the absence of the CSG, but after taking account of the SOAP, 42.7% of children would be in poverty and 13.1% would be in ultra-poverty. As previously explained, 33.1% of individuals are poor after taking account of SOAP. Assuming that all the eligible (under the age of 7) register for the CSG, household poverty would fall to 28.9%. Even more strikingly, poverty among children (under 7) falls from 42.7% to 34.3% and ultra poverty falls from 13.1% to 4.2%¿. (Woolard, 2003: 9).Social assistance grants: Impact of government programmes using administrative data sets Woolard, I. – 2003

Social Pension The social pension [in South Africa] reduces the number of people living below the poverty line by 2.24 million. It increases the income of the poorest 5% of the population by 50%'. (HelpAge International, 2009).Social Pensions in South Africa HelpAge International – 2009

Impacts of social protection on poverty reduction Social Security Summer School, ILO-ITC Turin...

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