Impacts of COVID-19 on Transportation and Key Considerations...

Impacts of COVID-19 on Transportation

and Key Considerations for the Future

Presented to: ITE Annual Meeting

August 13, 2020

Neil Pedersen, TRB Executive Director

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Impacts of COVID-19 on Transportation

and Key Considerations for the Future

• Presentation Outline

– Impact of COVID-19 on travel

demand by mode

– Key considerations affecting long

term demand by mode

– Poll questions regarding future

demand

– Some cross modal and longer

term issues for consideration

Transportation Research Board• Mission

– Provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based research, information exchange, and policy advice regarding all modes of transportation.

• Convene

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• Research

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– 900+ papers published annually

– TRID: 1.25 million records of transportation research citations

• Advise

– Independent, objective, evidence-based, thorough, non-partisan policy studies

Aviation– Reduction in demand

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

2020 2019 % Reduction

4/14/20 87,534 2,208,688 96.0

7/27/20 700,043 2,613,346 73.2

– Source: Transportation Security Administration

– Reduction in flights (week ended 7/25/20

vs. 2019)

• Total: 48 percent

• Domestic: 43 percent

• International: 80 percent

– Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Credit: Nick Oxford/Reuters

Aviation

• Pre-COVID-19 Trends

– 2015-2019 increases: 4-8% per year

• Key long term considerations

– Length of economic recovery

– Public confidence that it is safe to

travel through airports and on

airplanes

– Telecommunications substitution for

business travel

– Changes in leisure travel

– Timing on vaccine availability

Credit: CNN

Poll Question

One year from now what will be TSA Checkpoint

Travel Numbers as a percentage of 2019 numbers?

A. 30-50%

B. 50-70%

C. 70-90%

D. >90%

Highways: Passenger Car Travel

• Personal travel reductions

from 2019

– April 4, 2020 Nationwide: 44

percent

– July 24, 2020 Nationwide: 11

percent– Source: Inrix

• Metro area data

– Has varied considerably based

on rate of reopening

Credit: CNN International

Highways: Passenger Vehicle Travel


– Steady 1-2% growth per year

– Congestion growth in metro areas


– Economic conditions

– Trip substitution (e.g. telework,

telemedicine

– Modal diversion

– Changes in density and distribution

of activities

– Auto ownership

Credit: Houston Chronicle

Public Transportation• Major reductions in ridership

(vs. 2019)

– Transit App Nationwide: 58%

reduction as of 7/29/20

– DC Metrorail: 90% reduction as

of 7/27/20

– DC Metrobus: 66% reduction as

of 7/27/20

– New York MTA commuter rail:

78-84% reduction as 7/27/20 Credit: ABC7NY

Sources: Transit App, WMATA, New York MTA

Public Transportation


– 2015-2019: 7.3% reduction


– Willingness to return to crowded

vehicles & stations

– Telework impacts

– Changes in density and distribution

of activities, especially office space

– Auto ownership

– Willingness of governments to pay

subsidiesCredit: New York Times

Poll Question

One year from now what will be nationwide transit

ridership as a percentage of 2019 numbers?

A. 50-65%

B. 65-80%

C. 80-90%

D. >90%

Ride-hailing - TNCs

• Uber ridership decreased by 94%

in March

• Major layoffs of employees by

both Uber and Lyft

• Gradual increases in ridership as

cities have opened up

• Highly publicized safety

measures, such as plastic shields

between drivers and passengers

• Shift to food delivery to offset

reduction in passenger travel Credit: Uber

Sources: Forbes, Business Insider

Ride-hailing - TNCs


– Dramatic increases, especially in

CBDs and to airports


– Public confidence in safety of

shared ride vehicles

– Profitability of ride-hailing

– Integration with transit as part of

Mobility as a Service approach

– Automated vehicle shared ride

servicesCredit: Forbes

Micromobility

• Many companies downsized or

suspended services

• Companies pulled out of some

markets altogether

• Major increases bicycling and e-

bikes, but most privately owned

• March-May bikeshare ridership

down 44% in 8 largest systems

• Reluctance to use shared

vehicles that could be infected Source: NPR

Micromobility


– Explosion in use of e-scooters

– Docked bikeshare systems steady


– Public acceptance of using shared

vehicles

– Profitability for companies to

replace those that have pulled out

of markets

– Conversion of travel lanes for bike

and other micromobility use

Source: Next City

Telework• Pre-COVID-19 Trends

– 10% telework full time

– 68% traveled to office 5 days/week


– How many COVID-19 teleworkers

will continue teleworking long

term, part time or full time?

– Will corporations adopt new

telework policies?

– What is the impact on peak period

travel, especially for transit?

Credits: previous slide and photo this slide,

Giovanni Circella, Univ. of California, Davis

Poll Question

One year from now what percent of employees will

telework at least three days a week?

A. 15-20%

B. 20-25%

C. 25-30%

D. >30%

Goods Movement - Truck Travel

• Reductions from 2019

– Long haul truck traffic

• April 4, 2020 Nationwide: 10%

• July 24, 2020 Nationwide: 5%

– Metro area fleets

• April 4, 2020 Nationwide: 25%

• July 24, 2020 Nationwide: 7%

• Hours of service exemptions

• Food and rest area issues

Credit: Flickr

Goods Movement – Truck Travel


– Steady growth, slightly faster than

passenger travel growth

• Long term considerations

– Economic considerations

– Supply chain changes, more

sourcing domestically?

– E-commerce, last mile deliveries

from distribution centers

– Truck driver shortages

– Automated trucks

Credit: GCN

Goods Movements - Freight Rail

• U.S. Rail Freight v. 2019 for week

ended 4/18/20 7/18/20

– Total carloads: -27.5% -16.1%

– Intermodal Units: -19.1% -9.6%

– Total rail traffic: -23.3% -12.8%

– Strong rebound from low point

• Largest decreases by product

– Metallic ores and metals (-29.7%)

– Coal (-28.6%)

– Source: Association of American Railroads

Credit: kor-pak.com

Goods Movements – Freight Rail


– Rail volumes had been steadily

declining since mid-2018


– Economic factors

– Changes in sourcing for parts and

materials and locations of

manufacturing

– Decline in use of coal, increase in

renewable energy

Credit: The Courier-Mail

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Both US imports and exports affected by the global recession

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Real US exports Real US imports

Real value of US exports and imports of goods and services

Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit

US Economic Outlook | July 2020

Maritime - Ports

• As of May, containerized cargo at

U.S. ports was down

approximately 20-25% from the

same time periods in 2019.

• Bulk cargo movements at U.S.

ports year-to-date have declined

15-25% over 2019.

• Cruise ships, which are a major

revenue generator for ports,

have suspended sailings.

Credit: gcaptain.com

Source: American Association of Port Authorities

Maritime - Ports


– Port tonnage was increasing each

year, especially exports


– Rate of economic recovery

– Trade war impacts

– Domestic sourcing of parts

– Recovery of cruise industryCredit: SAFETY4SEA

E-commerce

• During the peak of the

shutdown, online ordering

nearly doubled

• Dramatic increases in delivery

of meals and pharmacy

deliveries

• Impacts on distribution centers

and last mile deliveries

• Increased use of robots and

drones for deliveries

E-commerce


– 2017 E-commerce share: 10.1%

– 2020 Pre-COVID share: 16.1%

– Source: Oberlo


– Will COVID-19 shopping habits be

retained?

– Expansion into additional markets

– Future of brick and mortar stores,

especially malls

– Use of AVs, including robots, and

drones

Credit: thehonestbison.com

Poll Question

One year from now what percentage of retail

shopping will be via e-commerce?

A. 15-20%

B. 20-25%

C. 25-30%

D. >30%

Cross Modal and Longer Term Issues

• Changes in location and density

of economic activity, including

location of jobs and

manufacturing

• Supply chain issues,

vulnerabilities, resilience

• Telecommunications as a

substitute for travel (e.g.

telework, telework, tele-

shopping, tele-recreation

• Integration of new mobility

services with transit

• Impact on the development and

deployment of autonomous

vehicles

• Long term implications of

unemployment on auto

ownership and modal usage

• Social equity issues exposed by

the pandemic

Transportation Research Board

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• TRB Annual Meeting,

Washington, DC, Jan. 2021

(to be held virtually)

Neil J. Pedersen

TRB Executive Director

[email protected]

Credit: Risdon Photography

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Impacts of COVID-19 on Transportation and Key Considerations...

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