Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality and Quantity in … · 2002-07-15 · Impacts of Climate...
Transcript of Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality and Quantity in … · 2002-07-15 · Impacts of Climate...
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Impacts of Climate Change on Water Qualityand Quantity in Agriculture and possible
Adaptations in Atlantic Canada
Caroline Pagé and Jean-Louis Daigle
CWRA 55th Annual Conference, Winnipeg, June 11-14, 2002
Presenter: G. Fairchild, Eastern Canada Soil and Water Conservation Centre
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•• Partners :Partners :
– PFRA (Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration,Agriculture & Agri-food Canada)
– CCA (Canadian Cattlemen’s Association)
– CFA (Canadian Federation of Agriculture)
– SCC (Soil Conservation Council of Canada)
– ECSWCC (Eastern Canada Soil and WaterConservation Centre)
Climate Change Awareness in AgriculturePartnership Project
•• Objectives :Objectives :
1)1) Increase awarenessIncrease awareness
2) 2) National networkingNational networking
3) 3) Identify and promote BMPIdentify and promote BMP
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Predictions for Atlantic Canada
http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/issues/what is/maps graphs.shtml
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Predictions for Atlantic Canada
http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/issues/what_is/maps_graphs.shtml
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A. Bootsma1, S. Gameda1 and D. W. McKenny2. (2001). Adaptation ofagricultural production to climate change in Atlantic Canada. 1AAFC. 2CFS
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A. Bootsma1, S. Gameda1 and D. W. McKenny2. (2001). Adaptation ofagricultural production to climate change in Atlantic Canada. 1AAFC. 2CFS
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R. De Jong1, K. Y. Li1, A. Bootsma1, T. Huffman1, G. Roloff1 and S. Gameda2. (2002).
Crop yield and variability under climate change and adaptation crop management scenarios.
1AAFC. 2Univ. Fed. de Parana
Modelled 30-yr means for potatoes @ 2 x CO 22
( EPIC & CGCM1+A1 )
location planting date growing season temperature stress water stress
(Day of year) ------------------------------------------- days ---------------------------------------
historic 2xCO 2 2 historic 2xCO 2 2 historic 2xCO 22 historic 2xCO 2 2
Fredericton 127 116 125 140 12 14 7 20
Charlottetown 139 119 120 139 13 15 0 0
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R. De Jong1, K. Y. Li1, A. Bootsma1, T. Huffman1, G. Roloff1 and S. Gameda2. (2002).
Crop yield and variability under climate change and adaptation crop management scenarios.
1AAFC. 2Univ. Fed. de Parana
Modelled 30-yr means for potato yields @ 2 x CO 22
( EPIC & CGCM1+A1 )
location baselinescenario
( Mg ha -1-1 )
2 x CO 22scenario ( Mg ha -1-1 )
mean std dev mean std dev
Fredericton 7.92 0.75 8.89* 0.97
Charlottetown 6.76 0.66 8.33* 0.69
* Significantly different at the 0.05 probability level
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Possible Atlantic C lim ate Change Considerations
• increasing climate variability• droughts, floods, irrigation, water quantity concerns ?
• increased frequency of intense rainfall events• more soil erosion, runoff, water quality concerns ?
• warmer winters
• earlier & larger runoff ?
• growing season and temperature increase• crop varieties, species, yield ?• over-wintering, cold-hardening ?
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Weather conditions
High Intensity rainstorms
NW NB farm - 40 mm intense rainfallduring 15 min
Soil conditions
• Dense, compactslowlypermeablesubsoils
• Poorly structuredsurface soils
• Shallow soilmaterials overbedrock
Water Quality concerns are related to:
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Excess Soil Erosion and Runoff
Soil Compaction
Loss of Organic Matter
Loss of Crop Productivity
Loss of Available Soil-Water
M a n y A tla n tic s o ils s h o w s erio u s so il e ro s io n an d d e g rad a tio n
Estimated annual on-farm cost $10-12million in NB potato belt alone
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Soil Erosion & Degradation
It is estimated that 60-70% PEI &NB potato land experiencesexcessive soil loss as a result offarming undulated slopes
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Sedim ent in farm runoff after very heavy showers (NW NB)
Black Brook6,000 t / yr ?
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Climate Change Impacts on water quality
in Atlantic Canada
Increased risks of soil erosion & impacts of agriculturalrunoff containing sediments, N, P, pesticides & bacteria
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Need for more Soil & Water Conservation systems ?
Site 22
Site 20
AAFC Study - Effectiveness of Terracing SystemsNW NB on NSCP SQEP Benchmark sites 20/22
Cross-slope cultivation,diversion terraces, grassedwaterways
Up & down - slopecultivation, no terraces
Site 22
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Site 22
0 25
50
75 100
125
150 175
200
225
mm
Crg(90) Pa(91) Pa(92) C(93) Pa(94) Moy (90-94)
Terrasse Sens de la pente
Runoff (mm)
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t/ha
Crg(90) Pa(91) Pa(92) C(93) Pa(94) Moy (90-94)
Terrasse Sens de la pente
Soil loss (t/ha)
terraced terracedUp & down slope Up & down slope
AAFC Study - Effectiveness of Terracing SystemsNW NB on NSCP SQEP Benchmark sites 20/22
Soil and Water Conservation Systems
Runoff & soil loss were greatly reduced on site with soil and waterconservation system. Terraces and grassed waterways veryeffective.
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Soil Management & Conservation
Sheet & rill soil erosion are being addressed by:
1. Better Crop Rotation2. Strip cropping3. Winter cover crops4. Conservation tillage5. Green manures6. Residue management7. Mulching
1,2 3
4 3 & 5
766
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8. Cross-slope & contour cropping9. Diversion terraces & grassed waterways10. Sub-surface drainage, subsoiling & 4x4 tractors11. Straw cover, mulches
8,98
9 10 11
rill & gully soil erosion (steeper fields) by:
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• Cross-slope & contour cropping• Diversion terraces & grassed waterways• Crop rotation• Residue management
Some progress, with 20,000 acres in each of PEI & NB nowprotected with site-specific, appropriate combinations of:
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Increased moisture deficits & frequency of localized drought
IrrigationWater storage
Climate change impacts on water quantity
in Atlantic Canada
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% Distribution of irrigated land in Canada
from: The Health of our Water. (2000). Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Man (3 )
Sask (11 )
Ont/Que (12 )
Alta (60 )Atlantic (1 )
BC (13 )
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IRRIGATION ACREAGE BY PROVINCE(acres)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1996 1999
NB
PEI
NS
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Feasible W ater Sou rcin g O p tions in M aritim es
• dugouts (maritimes high rainfall and runoff)
• Common infrastructures & reservoirs systems (lacking in
maritimes)
• Small dams & storage ponds
• By-pass ponds
• Rivers and lakes
• Groundwater (important in PEI)
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Integrated Soil and Water Management & Irrigation
• Soil suitability criteria
• Integrated land management
• Water sourcing options
• Irrigation feasibility
• Best Management Practices
If we encourage irrigation in the maritmes, we need:
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Integrated Soil and Water Management & Irrigation
• In the maritimes, with our rainfall, conserving the water in thesoil is extremely important in producing high quality crops andpreserving the environment.
• This includes measures taken to:
• increase soil WHC
• improve soil drainage
• reduce runoff
• reduce evaporative losses
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Water content at FC and PWP versus OM content
Hudson. 1994. J. Soil and Water Cons.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Percentage OM by weight
0
10
20
30
40
50Percentage water by volume
FC
PWP
AWC 16.6 20.3
Green Manure Crop
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Economics of BMPs in agriculture for climate change ?
• S & W Conservation BMPs
• for water quality & quantity
• GHG emission reduction BMPs
• crop adaptation
We will need:
• cost/benefit evaluations
• demo farms & sites
• programs to support adaptation to CC
• what is fit to new APF ?
Conclusion: Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality andQuantity in Agriculture and possible Adaptations in Atlantic Canada