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Impacts and Risks of Climate Change in Oregon

Climate Change Science and Adaptation in Oregon

Margi Bradway

Sustainability Program Manager

Oregon Transportation Commission

January 19, 2011

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Three Related Efforts Regarding Adaptation in Oregon:

1. Oregon Climate Assessment Report (OCAR)

2. Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework

3. ODOT’s Adaptation Efforts

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Mitigation Versus Mitigation Versus AdaptationAdaptation

� Climate Change Mitigation is any action taken to eliminate or reduce the long-term risk and hazards of climate change. - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

� Climate Change Adaptation is adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment caused by climate change.- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Adapting is taking “practical steps to protect communities from the likely disruption and damage that will result from effects of climate change.”

- United Nations Convention on Climate Change Secretariat

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1. Oregon Climate Assessment Report (OCAR)

• Produced by the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI)

• 2007 Oregon Legislature required a biennial state of the climate change science report for Oregon. – Regionally-specific scientific

data about climate change

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Key Findings of OCAR

• Increase in annual mean air temperature

– 0.2 to 1°F per decade

• Increase in wildfire

– 180% to 300% increase in regional forest area

burned by the end of the century

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• Shift in distribution of

plant and animal species– Shift northward due to

warmer climate.

– Pests and diseases will

continue to expand northward.

• Decrease in summer water supply– 14% decrease in summer precipitation

projected by 2080s.

– Cascade snowpacks will be one half in 2080.

Key Findings of OCAR (cont.)

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• Sea level rise

– Global mean sea level rise 2 to 4 feet by 2100.

– Wave heights causing more erosion and flooding.

• Increase in frequency and magnitude of coastal flooding events

Key Findings of OCAR (cont.)

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OCAR: Impacts to Transportation

1. Coastal roads, bridges and culverts

2. Infrastructure in floodplains

3. Roads and bridges at the urban/rural

interface

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2. Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework

• Convened by Governor Kulongoski

• Agency Directors meetings, lead by

DLCD

• Broad framework to guide state

agencies.

– Outline 11 key climate change risks to

Oregon.

– Identified list of state-level priority

actions (low-hanging fruit).

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11 Key Climate Risks

1) Increase in average annual air temperature and likelihood of extreme heat events. Very Likely

2) Changes in hydrology and water supply; reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins; changes in water quality and timing of water availability. Very Likely

3) Increase in wildfire frequency and intensity. Likely

4) Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes in ocean chemistry and increased ocean acidification. Likely

5) Increased incidence of drought. Likely

6) Increased coastal erosion and risk of inundation from increasing sea levels and increasing wave heights and storm surges. Likely

7) Changes in the abundance and geographical distributions of plant species and habitats for aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Likely

8) Increase in diseases, invasive species, and insect, animal and plan pests. Likely

9) Loss of wetland ecosystems and services. Likely

10) Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and incidence and magnitude of damaging floods. More likely than not

11) Increased incidence of landslides. More likely than not

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How will these findings impact transportation in Oregon?

Infrastructure:

• Roads

• Bridges

• Culverts

• Right of Way

• Airports

• Railroads

• Pipelines

• Stormwater Systems

Operations:

• Emergency Response

• Traffic Management

• Maintenance

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3. ODOT’s Efforts on Adaptation

Lead by Sustainability Program working with

the ODOT Climate Change Technical

Advisory Group

Three steps:

1) Research

2) Strategy

3) Plan

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1) Research – almost complete

– Funded research with other States

through a pooled research program

– Interviews with ODOT employees

– Best practices of local, state and

international governments regarding

transportation

ODOT’s Efforts on Adaptation (cont.)

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2) Strategy - underway

– Vulnerability and Risk

Assessment

– List of strategies to

reduce vulnerability

– Identify Priorities

ODOT’s Efforts on Adaptation (cont.)

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3) Plan – future work– Long-term plan to

guide the agency in smart investments and decision-making

– Continuous cooperation and coordination with partners, state agencies and local governments.

ODOT’s Efforts on Adaptation (cont.)

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Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

Potential Impacts to ODOT Infrastructure

Coastal Storm Intensity Changes in Precipitation

Changes in Air Temp

Sea level rise

Wave Heights

Wildfire

Population movement

Changes in veg. and wildlife

species

Wind storms and trees Flooding

Changes in seasonal flow

rates

LandslidesErosion

Goal: to assess how each of these potential climate change impacts affect the various types of transportation infrastructure in Oregon.

Summary of Next Steps for ODOT

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Questions?Questions?

Margi BradwaySustainability Program Manager

Oregon Department of Transportation

Director's Office

Salem, OR 97301

Phone: (503) 986-3491

Email:

Marjorie.C.Bradway@odot.state.or.us