Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

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Transcript of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

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Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

An Overview of AR5 WG II Contribution

Purnamita DasguptaCLA, Chapter 9

Asahi Shimbun / Getty Images1

The Framing: Climate as part of multiple, interacting contexts(a) Risks and Opportunities (b) Interactions : Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development

The Presentation: Two partsPart A: Global and Sectoral Aspects (ch 1-20); Part B: Regional Aspects (21-30)

The Literature Assessment: 308 authors, 70 countries, 50492 review comments

7. Industry, Settlement and Society8. Human Health17. Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity18. Inter-relationships Between Adaptation and Mitigation

8. Urban Areas9. Rural Areas10. Key Economic Sectors11. Human Heath12. Human Security13. Livelihoods and Poverty14. Adaptation Needs and Options15. Adaptation Planning and Implementation16. Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits17. Economics of AdaptationAR4AR5

AR4

AR5

Scope of the Assessment

A CHANGING WORLDWIDESPREADOBSERVED IMPACTS

4

AROUND THE WORLDVULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE

Risk Level withCurrent AdaptationPotential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce RiskRisk Level withHigh Adaptation

Risk-LevelVeryLowMedVeryHigh

4C2CPresentLong Term(2080-2100)Near Term (2030-2040)

6

THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING MAGNITUDESOF WARMING INCREASE SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS

7

WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONSINCREASERISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8C over the 21st century.9

Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4

Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, emissions growth is expected to persist driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Baseline scenarios, those without additional mitigation, result in global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 from 3.7 to 4.8C compared to pre-industrial levels.For such large magnitudes of warming, the Working Group II contribution to AR5 highlights the increase in the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and challenging impacts. Risks include potential adverse impacts on agricultural production worldwide, potentially extensive ecosystem impacts, and increasing species extinction risk (high confidence), as well as possible crossing of thresholds that lead to disproportionately large earth system responses (low confidence). The precise levels of climate change sufficient to trigger tipping points (critical thresholds) remain uncertain, but the likelihood of crossing tipping points in the earth system or interlinked human and natural systems decreases with reduced greenhouse gas emissions.The overall risks of climate change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change. Risks are reduced substantially under the assessed scenario in ambitious mitigation scenarios compared to business as usual projections.9

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

F ood and water shortages

Increased poverty

Increased morbidity and mortality

Coastal flooding

AR5 WGII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

10

Key risks: Climate change,SouthEast Asia

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Region: Impacted by Flooding and Droughts

Vulnerabilities*

Some concerns.with adaptation potential bars relatively small in most cases at 4 deg C Wildfires, Health impacts from smoke exposure.Increase in vector borne diseases such as dengue Decline in rice yields, fisheries

* Please Refer to Table in the Asia Flyer

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

CLIMATE CHANGEREDUCING ANDMANAGING RISKS

EC / ECHO 2012 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/16

Climate change in the The Lower Mekong Basin

Observations & future projections include:Intensified flood and drought events which have noticeably impacted agricultural output (90% rice production losses in Cambodia during 1996-2001)Vietnam and Cambodia are most vulnerable to climate change impacts on fisheries

AR5 WGII ch.24All countries of the LMB have national adaptation plans; Transboundary adaptation planning : A multi-stakeholder Regional Adaptation Action Network has been proposed.

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report