Impact of the Clean Development Mechanism...Impact of the Clean Development Mechanism Quantifying...
13
Impact of the Clean Development Mechanism Quantifying the current and pre-2020 mitigation impact of the CDM 26 May, Carbon Expo German Pavilion, Cologne Thomas Day, NewClimate Institute
Transcript of Impact of the Clean Development Mechanism...Impact of the Clean Development Mechanism Quantifying...
Impact of the Clean Development MechanismQuantifying the current and pre-2020 mitigation impact of the CDM26 May, Carbon Expo German Pavilion, Cologne
Thomas Day, NewClimate Institute
Insights from BMUB research
CDM portfolio analysis
Aug 2013 – Oct 2015
Institutions: NewClimate Institute, Ecofys, TÜV SÜD
Publications:
Status Report released in May 2015
Impact of the CDM, November 2015
26.05.2016 www.newclimate.org 2
Impacts of CDM report
www.newclimate.org 3
Status of CDM projects, relative to emission reductions
Quantification of net-mitigation impact of the CDM
Pre-2020 outlook for credit demand and supply
26.05.2016
Net-mitigation impact
www.newclimate.org 4
Unintended
Undesirable
The CDM is designed as a zero-sum offsetting
mechanism
Unintentional net-mitigation comes with a
enormous cost in terms of disenfranchised
private investors
26.05.2016
Assessment methodology
www.newclimate.org 526.05.2016
Emission reductions
www.newclimate.org 6
Emission
reductions
~750 MtCO2e
emission reduction
activity took place,
representing
> 73%of theoretical maximum
26.05.2016
Emission reductions
www.newclimate.org 7
Emissions decreasing up to 2020 under BAU
Scenarios with higher CER price do not equate to much
greater volume of emission reductions
26.05.2016
Credit supply
www.newclimate.org 8
Credit supply
~270 mCERs
May be issued,
representing
27%of theoretical maximum
26.05.2016
Credit supply
www.newclimate.org 9
Credit supply decreasing up to 2020 under BAU
Modest demand increase required to recovery to EUR 2
Recovery to higher CER prices requires major demand
increase or non-market intervention
26.05.2016
Impacts of CDM report
www.newclimate.org 10
Net mitigation impact 2014
480 MtCO2e
64% of all CDM emission reduction activity
~1% of global GHG emissions
26.05.2016
Net mitigation impact
www.newclimate.org 11
Net mitigation impact decreases up to 2020 under BAU
Higher CER prices will slash the net-mitigation impact,
restoring investor confidence.
26.05.2016
Summary
www.newclimate.org 12
See paper for:
Technology specific results
In 2014:
Emission reduction activity: ~750 MtCO2e
Credit supply: ~270 million CERS
Net mitigation impact: ~480 MtCO2e
64% of all emission reduction activity and 1% of global emissions
Higher CER prices → no major increase in emission reduc8on ac8vity
CER price of EUR 2 requires only modest demand increase
CER price of EUR 5 generates major increase in credit supply
26.05.2016
Thank you
Thomas Day, NewClimate Institute
Download the report:
Impact of the Clean Development Mechanism
at newclimate.org
26.05.2016 www.newclimate.org 13
