IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATE ON COASTAL WINDS,

STORM SURGES AND WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH SEA

Hans VON STORCH, Arnt PFIZENMAYER, Ralf WEISSE, Katja WOTH, Institute for Coastal Research,

GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany

IUGG Sapporo, 7 July 2003, MC08, FUTURE CHANGES IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

Series of EU projects

• WASA (1995-97)

• STOWASUS (1998-2001)

• PRUDENCE (2001-2003)

WASA: Mögliche Änderung der Windgeschwindigkeit der größten Stürme bei CO2 Verdopplung

STOWASUS: Ein ähnliches Szenario

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WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment

North Sea wind: increase of up to 0.5 m/s (10%ile)

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WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment

Mean water level: +10 cm

Storm related sea level: + 5 cm

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WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment

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WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment

Zukünftige Szenarien

WASA: Mögliche Änderung der Höhen der größten Wellen bei CO2 Verdopplung

CDV-2075: Mögliche Änderung des Überspülens von Deichen bei CO2 Zunahme

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WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment

North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (10%ile)

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STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment

North Sea wind: increase of up to 2 m/s (0.1%ile)

STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment

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North Sea elevation: increase of up to 40 cm (estimated 50 yr return values)

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elevation: increase of up to 20 cm (estimated 50 yr return values)

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STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment

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North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (0.1%ile)

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PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100

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PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100

• Over the years, several projections for the changing storm and storm impact statistics in the North Sea area, related to anthropogenic arming, have been constructed.

• These projects WASA, STOWASUS and PRUDENCE have been or are funded by the European Commission.

Conclusions

The scenarios indicate uniformly for the North Sea:

• A slight increase of higher wind percentiles of up to 0.5-2 m/s.

• A slight increase of storm surge levels, of up to 20-40 cm.

• A slight increase in significant wave height of up to 0.5 m.

Conclusions

Climate change Temperature WinterClimate change Temperature Winter

Climate change Precipitation WinterClimate change Precipitation WinterOle Bøssing Christensen, 2003

PRUDENCE regional scenarios

Dynamically downscaled from HADAM3H