The Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) Ensemble Data Assimilation System: Current Status and Future Plans
Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan
description
Transcript of Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan
![Page 1: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan
Shyuan-Ru Miaw, Pay-Liam LinDepartment of Atmospheric SciencesNational Central University, Taiwan
Jing-San Hong, Bao-Jao ChenCentral Weather Bureau, Taiwan
2008.7.1 UAW
![Page 2: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
OutlineOutline
IntroductionMethodology COSMIC data and model setup RAFS
Real time forecast validationReal time forecast validationSummary
![Page 3: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Radiosondes (weather sensors launched by balloon) have obtained vertical profiles since the 1930s. However, they are launched only twice a day in most spots, and few are deployed over the ocean.
The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission was launched in April 2006. As part of its mission, COSMIC will provide approximately 2000-2500 global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) soundings per day distributed uniformly around the globe.
Introduction
![Page 4: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC provides ~2500 vertical profiles (green points)
per day in near-real timeGround based observation provides ~900 vertical profiles (red points)
![Page 5: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
What’s GPS Radio Occultation Data?
•As the radio signals, transmitted by the GPS satellites, pass through the atmosphere, they are refractedrefracted due to the density gradients along the path. •As a LEO satellite sets or rises behind the earth’s limb relative to the GPS satellite, the onboard GPS receiver takes measurements of the phase and amplitude of the GPS signals.
![Page 6: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Obtaining Temperature and Pressure from Refractivity
Refractivity
Dry air Water vapor
Smith and Weintraub(1953) :
P: Total atmospheric pressure (mb),
T: Atmospheric temperature (K),
Pv: Partial pressure of water vapor (mb).
![Page 7: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The number of GPS RO soundings per day from 21,Apr, 2006 to 31,July,2007 (from TACC website)
GPS RO Soundings per dayGPS RO Soundings per day
![Page 8: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Jul. – Oct. in 2006
2007 5 6 GPS-RO realtime年 月 月 接收數量
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500TACC realtime
Jul 1 2006 Aug 1 2006 Sep 1 2006 Oct 1 2006
May and Jun. in 2007
GPS RO Soundings per dayGPS RO Soundings per day
Realtimedaily
![Page 9: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Mp physics : WSM 5-class scheme Longwave radiation option : rrtm scheme Shortwave radiation option : Goddard short wave bl_pbl_ physics : YSU scheme cu physics : Kain-Fritsch ( new Eta ) scheme Resolution: 45 ( 222×128 )、 15 ( 184×196 )、 5 ( 94×124 ) Vertical: 41 simga levels
Configuration of WRF modelConfiguration of WRF model
![Page 10: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Configuration of WRF modelConfiguration of WRF model
Control Run (NO GPS) 、 GPS Run(GPS)
IC & BC:CWB GFS WRF 3DVAR Assimilation data: ALL SYNOP 、 SHIPS 、 METAR 、 PILOT 、 SOUND 、 SATEM SATOB 、 AIREP 、 wind profiler 、 BUOY 。 GPS RO
Forecast :72 hours
![Page 11: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
RReal-time eal-time AAssimilating and ssimilating and FForecasting orecasting SSystemystem
![Page 12: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Real time forecast validation
![Page 13: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Validation of q with sounding dataValidation of q with sounding data
domain2
RMS of q in domain2 July to October 2006
![Page 14: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Profile of HDomain1 Domain2
Validation In Grid point (May –Sep 2007)Validation In Grid point (May –Sep 2007)
Domain 2 have more significant result than Domain 1
![Page 15: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
RMS RMS
M-error M-errorAbs_m Abs_m
S_D S_D
Validation in Grid point (May –Sep 2007)Validation in Grid point (May –Sep 2007)Profile of H Profile of T
![Page 16: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
U 垂直剖面RMS RMS
M-error M-errorAbs_m Abs_m
S_D S_D
Profile of U Profile of V
Validation in Grid point (May –Sep 2007)Validation in Grid point (May –Sep 2007)
![Page 17: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Validation in Grid point - timeseries (May-Sep)Validation in Grid point - timeseries (May-Sep)
850 hPa
500 hPa
300 hPaMay 1 Oct 1
Typhoon
Height
![Page 18: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Typhoon WutipModel forecast rainfall accumulation in the past 3 hr at 72hr
GPS run nonGPS run Init=Aug 6 00Z
![Page 19: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
GPS run nonGPS run Aug. 9 00 UTC
Typhoon WutipModel forecast rainfall accumulation in the past 3 hr at 48hr
Init=Aug 7 00Z
Radar
![Page 20: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Validation in Grid point - timeseries (May-Sep)Validation in Grid point - timeseries (May-Sep)
850 hPa
500 hPa
300 hPa
•When H have significant result, T maybe not have so much different result at the same time.
•The results of validation show that GPS RO data assimilation have positive impact on the WRF model forecast but not so much!
Temperature
![Page 21: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Mei-yu front heavy rainfall
Accumulate precipitation on Jun 7, 2007 by CWB
The location of the GPS RO sounding on Jun 5 00Z, 2007(Time window is 3 hr)
![Page 22: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
GPS run nonGPS run Jun 7 17 LST
Mei-yu front heavy rainfall
Model forecast rainfall accumulation in the past 3 hr at 57hr
Radar
Init=Jun 5 00Z
![Page 23: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
time month 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z
(May) RO sounding number in the domain/ all receive
10.87 / 173.19
21.47 / 302.65
15.90 / 185.35
27.58 / 257.48
(Jun) 16.23 / 227.53
24.17 / 332.27
20.13 / 252.07
22.17 / 357.5
• 00Z and 12Z has less RO soundings than 06Z and 18Z
• We need to proceed post run (ex. Update cycle) to optimize use GPS RO data and to assess the impacts!
Number of GPS RO data during 2007 Mei-yu season
![Page 24: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Validation of Update cycle run
![Page 25: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
H T
RMS
M-error Abs_m
S_D RMS
M-error Abs_m
S_D
Validation In Grid point (Update cycle run)Validation In Grid point (Update cycle run)
![Page 26: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
U V
RMS
M-error Abs_m
S_D RMS
M-error Abs_m
S_D
Validation In Grid point (Update cycle run)Validation In Grid point (Update cycle run)
![Page 27: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
1. In order to assess the impact of COSMIC GPS RO data on the regional weather forecast we conduct near real time WRF 3dvar assimilation forecast and validation.
2. Preliminary results show that GPS RO data assimilation have positive impact on the WRF model forecast but not so much!
3. Cases studies show that GPS RO data assimilation have impact on typhoon track and precipitation system forecast when initial condition is not good, but not always have positive impact. We need more cases studies in the coming days!
4. Cycling experiment show neutral impact during 2007 meiyu season.
SummarySummary
![Page 28: Impact of FORMOSAT-3 GPS Data Assimilation on WRF model during 2007 Mei-yu season in Taiwan](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081418/56814b73550346895db8601f/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
~Thank you~