Impact of flooding in Mediterranean Europe: the Impact of flooding in Mediterranean Europe: the case of Cataloniacase of Catalonia

MARÍA DEL CARMEN LLASATMARÍA DEL CARMEN LLASAT Meteorological Hazards Analysis TeamMeteorological Hazards Analysis TeamDepartment of Astronomy & MeteorologyDepartment of Astronomy & MeteorologyUniversity of Barcelona, SpainUniversity of Barcelona, Spaincarmell@am.ub.es http://www.am.ub.es/~carmell

Participating Institution in the MEDEX programme

Workshop on Social Impact Research in MEDEX. Barcelona 23-24 February 2004

A. The framework: Floods in the Mediterranean EuropeB. Catalonia: events 2002, damages, casualties, space, timeC. The answer: public policies against floods

Besos River, 25 September 1962, 815 deaths

Part A: the framework

The social perception from the press: What is it telling us?

The social perception from the reinsuraces companies: What are they telling us?

The social perception from the facts: What are they telling us?

815

82 128 13719 33 15

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Themes (File GAMA)

Number of news in the press(1982-2002) 1 – Heavy rainfalls, floods and landslides

2 – Wind storms

3 - Snow and cold

4 – Forest fires, agromet. risks and heat waves

5 - Sustainable development, climatic change, polution

6 - Alert chain

7 - Others

497

3196 96

13 186

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Themes (File GAMA)

Number of news about Catalonia in the press (1982-2002)

The social perception from the press: What are they telling us?

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Number of events in the press (1982-2002)

RINAMED project

CAUSE Nº EXPED. % PAYED %

Flood 228.178 55,17 1.574.530.945 75,86

Earthquake 10.733 2,59 16.141.144 0,78

Atypical cyclonic storm 125.277 30,29 227.870.565 10,98

Sideral bodies fall 3 0,00 41.470 0,00

Terrorism 24.708 5,97 178.523.531 8,60

Riot 146 0,04 668.966 0,03

Popular rising 4.982 1,20 41.852.408 2,02

FF.AA. actuations 640 0,15 1.117.239 0,05

Various 18.946 4,58 34.916.063 1,68

TOTAL 413.613 100 2.075.662.330 100

Expedients and compensations payed by the CCS 1971-2002. Source CCS

The social perception from the reinsuraces companies: What are they telling us?

Flash-floods: Catalonia, 10 June 2000: 215 mm/3h, 5 casualties, 65. 106 €.

Floods: East of Spain, 19-25 October 2000: 177 mm/24 h (>600 mm), 11 casualties

Flash-floods: Gard region, 8 September 2002: 687 mm/24 h, 23 casualties, 1,2. 106 €

Floods and landslides (+ snowmelt): Lombardia, 13-27 November 2002, 559 mm(5 days), Private damages: 8.182.000 euros, Public damages: 5.430.000 €

Montserrat, June 2000 Aaramon, sep 2002

The social perception from the facts: What are they telling us?

Part B: The Catalan case

•2002: Two events of different social impact. Why?

•The role of the mass media

•From damages to risk: some considerations in basis to objective information

An event with a great social impactThe“Castelldefels” event, 8-10 October 2002

“Castelldefels” event, 8-10 October 2002

“Castelldefels” event, 8-10 October 2002: Why the social impact was so strong?

36 headlines in press

169.4 mm/24 h (201) 156 mm/12 h (199) 127,7 mm/6 h (198)

45.7 mm/1 h (148)The cumulated rainfall? Hydroptimet project

The damages?

Fireman’s exits: 370 4 houses collapsed6 h traffic-jam: 1000 cars Airport control center inondated>200 flights cancelledGreat losses in Agriculture (>70% in Baix Llobregat)Cuts: Power electricity (>30.000 users) , underground, train, Debris flow in Garraf mountainHail

The forecast?.Flood warnings in different parts of Spain

319.1 mm/24 h (26) 280.9 mm/12 h (26) 243.1 mm/6 h (26) 68.6 mm/1 h (26)

A different case: the“Empordà” event, 9-12 April 2002

20 headlines (including sea storm and temporal of snow)

Why this difference?

The cumulated rainfall?

“Empordà” event, 9-12 April 2002

Fireman’s exits: 150

600 scholarships evacuated.

Cuts: roads, streets, power electricity (>5.000 users)

Partial destruction of some river channels

Damages in some buildings (mainly, parkings)

Damages in agriculture

Wind storm: Ebro Delta (waves of 4 m); Alt Empordà, 128.5 km/h NW (waves of 5 m)

The damages?

The specific affected area?

Differences in orography and geomorfology, land uses, hydraulic infraestructures

Case A20 years: 24000 to 46000 inhabitants in Castelldefels

Previous flood on 12 September, (287 mm/6 h) 1.000.000 €October flood 892.000 €The Council of Castelldefels asked the declaration of “Catastrophique Zone”

Case B

La Jonquera (frontier Spain France): 60.000 €

The role of the mass media: >news and TV time devoted to the Castelldefels event

Event P(mm) Deaths L(106 €) Exped(CCS) P (CCS) (€)

22/10/1907   29      

17-18/10/1940 800 90    

25/9/1962 250 815 16

20-23/9/1971 400 19 42    

6-8/11/1982 556 14 270 1.587 15.899.787

1-5/10/1987 431 10 1.000 3.243 13.214.694

9-10/10/1994 400 9 60 4.631 46.830.863

10/06/2000 224 5 66 2.952 27.510.603

The worst events: Some figures about the damages

Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros: Quantities payed during 2002Barcelona 24.714.080 € (mainly Castelldefels cases)Tarragona 2.204.838 € (mainly Empordà + Castelldefels cases)Girona 1.904.816 € (mainly Empordà case) Lleida 61.466 € TOTAL 28.885.200 €

Some questions arise from those observations

• The more the rainfall the more the flood?

• More risk more damages?

• More damages more floods?

• More floods more rainfall?

• More information less casualties?

Social Impact Damages Vulnerability + Hazard =Risk

•The more the rainfall the more the flood?

1900-2000

Llobregat basin: 11 cases the highest rainfall / 35 Cases affected by floods

Ter basin: 12 cases the highest rainfall / 48 cases affected by floods

Segre basin: 5 cases the highest rainfall / 9 cases affected by floods

More risk more damages?

However, in the previous 8 selected cases (20th century) the Llobregat basin was always affected

14th-20th centuries

Girona: 121 floods

Baix Llobregat: 112 floods

Lleida: 41

1301 1351 1401 1451 1501 1551 1601 1651 1701 1751 1801 1851 1901 1951 2001

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30y. Filter 10y. Filter

CATALONIA. Catastrophic floods. (Smoothing filter 10 and 30 years)

1301 1351 1401 1451 1501 1551 1601 1651 1701 1751 1801 1851 1901 1951 2001

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30y. Filter 10y. Filter

CATALONIA. Extraordinary floods. (Smoothing filter 10 and 30 years)

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Nr. of overflows: 175

Nr. of overflows: 344

More damages more floods? SPHERE project

1672 1692 1712 1732 1752 1772 1792 1812 1832 1852 1872 1892 1912 1932 1952 1972 1992

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MARESME COUNTRY. Catastrophic floods. (Smoothing filter 10 and 30 years)

1672 1692 1712 1732 1752 1772 1792 1812 1832 1852 1872 1892 1912 1932 1952 1972 1992

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MARESME COUNTRY. Extraordinary floods. (Smoothing filter 10 and 30 years)

Nr. of overflows: 86

Nr. of overflows: 125

More damages more floods?

TESTS FOR TREND

Spearman Rank Statistic: rs = 0.881 <? Tkrit_97.5% = 33.295 (O.K.)

Mann-Kendall Rank Statistic: t = 0.680 <? Tkrit_95% = 0.073 (OUT)

Linear Regression:y = 0.0032·x – 0.5397

1672 1704 1736 1768 1800 1832 1864 1896 1928 1960 1992

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1E-3

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

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Maresme Basin Extraordinary Floods Alella Annual Precipitation

Trend

Accumulate slopes for extraordinary floods in Maresme BasinAccumulate slopes for extraordinary floods in Maresme Basin

•More floods more rainfall?

Barcelona annual precipitation (1787-2003)

y = 0,2258x + 543,21

R2 = 0,0068

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Floods with Pmax>150mm

More damages more floods?

1900-2000: A flood increasing?

1950-2000: Flood ? P>150 mm

1950-2000: Extraordinary floods > catastrophic floods

•More information less casualties?

Distribution of the number of casualties per year

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1971-2002: Reinboursements payed CCS

1900-2000: casualties produded directly by floods

Part C: The answer: public policies against floods

Special Report presented by the ombudsman of Catalonia: delimitation of flood risk zones + information to citizens maintenance hidraulic/measurement infraestructures + reflexion about reinsurance systems

INUNCAT

VI Long-Term Plan 2004-2011World Meteorological Organisation: Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme: to ensure the integration of relevant activities being carried out under the various WMO Programmes in the area of disaster prevention and mitigation, and to provide for the effective coordination of the pertinent WMO activities with related activities of international, regional and national organizations involved, including civil defence organizations

Thanks for your attention

Thanks to the members of GAMA for their support