IMPACT OF FiT ON DEVELOPMENT OF ITALIAM PV MARKET 1st PV MED CONFERENCE Catania, October 6th, 2005
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Transcript of IMPACT OF FiT ON DEVELOPMENT OF ITALIAM PV MARKET 1st PV MED CONFERENCE Catania, October 6th, 2005
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IMPACT OF FiT ON IMPACT OF FiT ON
DEVELOPMENT OF DEVELOPMENT OF
ITALIAM PV MARKETITALIAM PV MARKET
1st PV MED CONFERENCE1st PV MED CONFERENCE
Catania, October 6th, 2005Catania, October 6th, 2005
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SUMMARY OF PRESENTATION
• PV Market Today – A Disaster
• Drastic Change of Scenario in 3Q05– FiT approved
• PV Market Tomorrow– A brilliant future
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THE ITALIAN PV MARKET • A Young Market – Net Metering permitted only since Dec. 2000
• Subsidy Programme launched in 2001– Managed by Min.Env./ Regions– Grants up to 75% of Investment Costs– Max PV Price fixed (7,25 – 8,00 €/W)
• No Installations made in 2001• First Installations in 2002• New Subsidy Programme launched in 2002
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THE PV MARKET TODAY• Stagnant Market– 5 MW per Year
• Large Gap towards Germany– 5 MW/y vs. 336 MW/y in 2004
• Uncertainty for future Subsidies– No longer Rooftop Program– No Government Subsidies
• Strong interest versus Renewable Energies• No Future for PV
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PV DEVELOPMENT IN ITALY
00,5
11,5
22,5
33,5
44,5
5
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
MWp/year
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WHERE WE ARE?WHERE WE ARE?
• Law 387 on RE approved in Dec 2003– Feed-in Tariff Incentive established
• “Incentive Tariff which allows remuneration of investment costs”
– Feed-in Tariff Start-up linked to two decrees • Ministry for Industry Decree (by August 15th 2004)• Electricity Authority Guidelines (by May 15th 2004)
• MI Decree approved on August 5th 2005• EA Guidelines issued on Sept 15th • Development of FiT started on Sept 30th
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ADVANTAGES OF FEED-IN TARIFFADVANTAGES OF FEED-IN TARIFF
• Appropriate Tool to stimulate Industrial Investments
• Adequate Return on Capital Employed
• No Financial Burden for Government
• No Bureaucratic constraints
• Clear Financing Rules
• Easy Access to Credits / Bank System
• One unique set of rules for Whole Market
• Plant Performance becomes Driving Force
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ADVANTAGES OF FiT (cont.d)ADVANTAGES OF FiT (cont.d)
• Market Exploitation expected in spite of critical points
• Great Attention towards PV
• Development of full PV Chain
–Modules Assembling Factories
• Quality of Service key selling point
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FiT CRITERIAFiT CRITERIA
• FiT Users Individuals
Registered Companies
Pubblic Bodies
• PV Plant Size > 1 kWp <1.000 kWp
• Tariffs Plant Size, kWp Tariff, €/kWh
< 20 kWp 0,445
> 20 kWp < 50 kWp 0,460
> 50 kWp < 1.000 kWp 0,490
• Tariff Duration 20 Years
• Tariff Degression 2%/Year from 2007 on
• Tariff Update Tight to Inflation Rate yearly
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FiT CRITERIA (cont.d)FiT CRITERIA (cont.d)
• Electricity Value Plant Size, kWp Value, €/kWh
< 20 kWp Net Metering
> 20 kWp < 1.000 AEEG 34/05
• Tender Mechanism for Plants > 50 kWp
• Bank Guarantee for Plants > 50 kWp
• Maximum PV Power Plant Size, kWp Power, MWp
< 50 kWp 60
> 50 kWp < 1.000 40
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FiT CRITERIA (cont.d)FiT CRITERIA (cont.d)
• FiT Request By end of quarter
• Documentation Preliminary Project
Technical Memorandum
• Tariff Compatibility Yes with incentives from Local Bodies up to
20% investment
No with Green Certificates
• Body for FiT Management To be designated by Energy Authorityon Sept 18th
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FiT CRITICAL POINTSFiT CRITICAL POINTS
• Modest Power Target 100 MWp
Will be increased to 300 MWp
Further Increase committed by Ministry of Industry
• BIPV No special tariff
• FiT Request Process Time consuming
• Tender Process It favours utility companies
• Hybrid System May generate conflict with local Utility
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THE PRELIMINARY 3Q RESULTSTHE PRELIMINARY 3Q RESULTS
• Strong Interest towards PV
• Very large number of FiT requests
– More than 4.000
– Most likely 100 MWp
• No information available on split between
– small plants (to be installed by 2006)
– large plants (to be installed by 2007)
• Most likely 50/60 MWp will be installed in 2006
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P V P L A N T S E X P E C T E D T R E N DC o n s e r v a t iv e F o r e c a s t
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
M W p /Year
M W p C u m u lative
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P V P L A N T S E X P E C T E D T R E N DO p t im is t ic F o r e c a s t
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
M W p /Year
M W p C u m u lative
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CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
• FiT incentive right tool to exploit PV Market
• Great PV Market Growth expected
– 500% in 4 Years
• Net Jobs created mainly in Sicily
• Quality of Service mandatory
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BACK-UPSBACK-UPS