Impact of climate scenarios on freshwater resources in the ......Walter Collischonn IPH UFRGS...
Transcript of Impact of climate scenarios on freshwater resources in the ......Walter Collischonn IPH UFRGS...
Impact of climate scenarios on freshwater resources in the Rio
Grande - Brazil
Márcio NóbregaWalter Collischonn
IPH UFRGS
Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulPorto Alegre,
Brazil
• 60% of hydropower production in Brazilcomes from the Paraná river and its tributaries
• Itaipu dam
2 The rio Grande basin: headwaters of the Paraná river
2 The rio Grande basin: Potential impacts
• Hydropower is the most important source of electric energy in Brazil
in recent years there was an increase in natural gas and nuclear power share
2 The rio Grande basin: Interest points
- drainage area of 145000 km2
- used extensively for hydropower generation (~12% of Brazilian total)
Hydroelectric reservoirs
Annual Precipitation: ~1400 mm.year-1
Wet SummerDry Winter Annual runoff: ~540 mm.year-1
Long term runoff coefficient: 0.39
3 The MGB-IPH large scale hydrological model
• Similar to the VIC (Univ. Washington) and LARSIM (Univ. of Freiburg) models
• Distributed (regular cells or small catchments)• Daily or hourly time steps• Typically applied in 6 minutes (0.1 degree)
latitude and longitude resolution
3 The MGB-IPH large scale hydrological model
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Vegetation / land cover
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GRUs
• Basin divided in grid cells• Grid cells divided in Grouped Response Units, or Hydrological
Response Units, according to soil types and vegetation cover or land use
• Parameters are related to GRUs and can be calibrated
3 The MGB-IPH large scale hydrological model
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3CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION OF THE HYDROLOGICAL MODEL
- In both calibration and verification, the values obtained for NS and NSlog coefficients were about 0.9 in all but one of the catchments;
- Values of volume bias were also acceptable, with values less than 0.05% during calibration and less than 7% at validation.
Verification period – outlet of Furnas catchment
The MGB-IPH large scale hydrological model
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Scenarios
dados cenário períodocccma +2C 2040-2069 okcsiro +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5 +2C f fhadgem1 +2C 2040-2069 okipsl +2C 2040-2069 okncar +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataukmo HadGEM1 A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure datacccma_A1B A1B f fCSIRO mk3.0. A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3_a1b A1B f fhadcm3_a2 A2 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b1 B1 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b2 B2 2006-2100 okipsl_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okncar_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3 +1 +1C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +2 +2C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +3 +3C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +4 +4C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +5 +5C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +6 +6C 2040-2069 okdetrend 1961-90 CRU TS 2040-2069 detrend okBaseline CRU TS 3.0 1930-2002 CRU TS 3.0 data set okMGB-IPH 1970-1980 observed ok
2 degree prescribed warming scenarios
Hadley temperature cenarios
obs.
dados cenário períodocccma +2C 2040-2069 okcsiro +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5 +2C f fhadgem1 +2C 2040-2069 okipsl +2C 2040-2069 okncar +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataukmo HadGEM1 A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure datacccma_A1B A1B f fCSIRO mk3.0. A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3_a1b A1B f fhadcm3_a2 A2 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b1 B1 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b2 B2 2006-2100 okipsl_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okncar_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3 +1 +1C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +2 +2C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +3 +3C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +4 +4C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +5 +5C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +6 +6C 2040-2069 okdetrend 1961-90 CRU TS 2040-2069 detrend okBaseline CRU TS 3.0 1930-2002 CRU TS 3.0 data set okMGB-IPH 1970-1980 observed ok
2 degree prescribed warming scenarios
Hadley temperature cenarios
obs.
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Scenarios
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
dados cenário períodocccma +2C 2040-2069 okcsiro +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5 +2C f fhadgem1 +2C 2040-2069 okipsl +2C 2040-2069 okncar +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataukmo HadGEM1 A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure datacccma_A1B A1B f fCSIRO mk3.0. A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3_a1b A1B f fhadcm3_a2 A2 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b1 B1 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b2 B2 2006-2100 okipsl_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okncar_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3 +1 +1C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +2 +2C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +3 +3C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +4 +4C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +5 +5C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +6 +6C 2040-2069 okdetrend 1961-90 CRU TS 2040-2069 detrend okBaseline CRU TS 3.0 1930-2002 CRU TS 3.0 data set okMGB-IPH 1970-1980 observed ok
2 degree prescribed warming scenarios
Hadley temperature cenarios
obs.
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Scenarios
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Concluding remarks regarding CRU usability
• CRU slightly underestimates rainfall in the Rio Grande Basin
• underestimation is higher in smaller basins• at Água Vermelha (close to basin outlet) the
underestimation of CRU is only 7% compared to naturalized streamflow
• the same magnitude of error was found during hydrological model verification
We can conclude that CRU satisfactorilyrepresents rainfall in the rio Grande basin
dados cenário períodocccma +2C 2040-2069 okcsiro +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5 +2C f fhadgem1 +2C 2040-2069 okipsl +2C 2040-2069 okncar +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataukmo HadGEM1 A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure datacccma_A1B A1B f fCSIRO mk3.0. A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3_a1b A1B f fhadcm3_a2 A2 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b1 B1 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b2 B2 2006-2100 okipsl_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okncar_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3 +1 +1C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +2 +2C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +3 +3C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +4 +4C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +5 +5C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +6 +6C 2040-2069 okdetrend 1961-90 CRU TS 2040-2069 detrend okBaseline CRU TS 3.0 1930-2002 CRU TS 3.0 data set okMGB-IPH 1970-1980 observed ok
2 degree prescribed warming scenarios
Hadley temperature cenarios
obs.
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Scenarios
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
MGB-IPH using CRU with and without trend
dados cenário períodocccma +2C 2040-2069 okcsiro +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5 +2C f fhadgem1 +2C 2040-2069 okipsl +2C 2040-2069 okncar +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataukmo HadGEM1 A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure datacccma_A1B A1B f fCSIRO mk3.0. A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3_a1b A1B f fhadcm3_a2 A2 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b1 B1 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b2 B2 2006-2100 okipsl_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okncar_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3 +1 +1C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +2 +2C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +3 +3C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +4 +4C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +5 +5C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +6 +6C 2040-2069 okdetrend 1961-90 CRU TS 2040-2069 detrend okBaseline CRU TS 3.0 1930-2002 CRU TS 3.0 data set okMGB-IPH 1970-1980 observed ok
2 degree prescribed warming scenarios
Hadley temperature cenarios
obs.
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Scenarios: one GCM (Hadley Centre) with different prescribed temperatures
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Scenarios: one GCM (Hadley Centre) with different prescribed temperatures
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Scenarios: one GCM (Hadley Centre) with different prescribed temperatures
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Scenarios: one GCM (Hadley Centre) with different prescribed temperatures
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
• Streamflow will increase in all months in all scenarios• Higher global temperatures will result in higher rio
Grande discharge • 8 to 9% increase for each 1 degree increase in
temperature• Most important changes will occur in November and
December, which corresponds to the start of the wet season
• But what are the predictions of other GCMs?
Scenarios: one GCM (Hadley Centre) with different prescribed temperatures
dados cenário períodocccma +2C 2040-2069 okcsiro +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5 +2C f fhadgem1 +2C 2040-2069 okipsl +2C 2040-2069 okncar +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataukmo HadGEM1 A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure datacccma_A1B A1B f fCSIRO mk3.0. A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3_a1b A1B f fhadcm3_a2 A2 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b1 B1 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b2 B2 2006-2100 okipsl_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okncar_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3 +1 +1C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +2 +2C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +3 +3C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +4 +4C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +5 +5C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +6 +6C 2040-2069 okdetrend 1961-90 CRU TS 2040-2069 detrend okBaseline CRU TS 3.0 1930-2002 CRU TS 3.0 data set okMGB-IPH 1970-1980 observed ok
2 degree prescribed warming scenarios
Hadley temperature cenarios
obs.
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Prescribed-temperature change scenarios with different GCMs
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Prescribed-temperature change scenarios with different GCMs
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Prescribed-temperature change scenarios with different GCMs
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Relative differences between GCMs in +2 scenarios and detrended series
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Relative differences between GCMs in +2 scenarios and detrended series
2 degree scenarios
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
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30.0%
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% fr
om d
etre
nded
ave
rage
CCMA
CSIRO
ECHAM
HADGEM
NCAR
IPSL
Comments: +2 scenario difference between GCMs
• Three GCMs predict that average streamflow of the rio Grande will increase, while other three GCMs predict that average streamflow will decrease.
• Increase or decrease occurs both for low and high flows with no visible pattern
• A new generation of the Hadley Center model gives a prediction which is completely different from the previous generation.
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Different GCMs and emission-based scenarios
dados cenário períodocccma +2C 2040-2069 okcsiro +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5 +2C f fhadgem1 +2C 2040-2069 okipsl +2C 2040-2069 okncar +2C 2040-2069 ok without vapour pressure dataukmo HadGEM1 A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure datacccma_A1B A1B f fCSIRO mk3.0. A1B 2006-2100 ok without vapour pressure dataecham5_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3_a1b A1B f fhadcm3_a2 A2 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b1 B1 2006-2100 okhadcm3_b2 B2 2006-2100 okipsl_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okncar_A1B A1B 2006-2100 okhadcm3 +1 +1C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +2 +2C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +3 +3C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +4 +4C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +5 +5C 2040-2069 okhadcm3 +6 +6C 2040-2069 okdetrend 1961-90 CRU TS 2040-2069 detrend okBaseline CRU TS 3.0 1930-2002 CRU TS 3.0 data set okMGB-IPH 1970-1980 observed ok
2 degree prescribed warming scenarios
Hadley temperature cenarios
obs.
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Different Hadley Center emission scenarios
2061 - 2100
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month
Rel
ativ
e C
hang
e S
tream
flow
hadcm3_a1bhadcm3_a2hadcm3_b1hadcm3_b2
4 PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Different GCMs same emission scenario (A1B)
2061 - 2100
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
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20%
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40%
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ccma_a1b
csiro_mk30 x
echam5_A1B
hadcm3_a1b
ipsl_A1B
5 Impact assessment
Conclusions:
There is no consistency in climate change predictions in the RioGrande Basin.
5 Impact assessment
Future developments:
• Use the hydrological model outputs to feed the Long-term planning model of the hydropower system (NEWAVE) and see how energy costs will be affected
• Limited approach because several other basins in the region should be considered:
• less rainfall in one basin could be balanced by more rainfall inanother (energy production would be less affected)
5 Low frequency variability
Sequences of dry / wet years