IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON YAM PRODUCTION IN EMURE-EKITI … · EMURE-EKITI, EKITI STATE, NIGERIA...

Journal of Geography and Planning Sciences Volume 3, Number 2, 2018 ISSN 2006 – 1226

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IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON YAM PRODUCTION IN EMURE-EKITI, EKITI STATE, NIGERIA

OLORUNLA NA, Folasade Aderonke

Department of Geography and Planning Sciences

Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba-Akoko, Nigeria.

[email protected]

Abstract

The impact of climate change on yam production in Emure Ekiti was studied and analyzed. A random sampling technique was used in the selection of farmers. A structured questionnaire was administered to 200 randomly selected farmers. Data on rainfall and temperature was obtained from the archieves of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) which ranged from

2007-2016. Data on yam production was collected from the Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) in Ekiti State and it covers a period of 10 years from 2007-2016. Data was analyzed with trend analysis and descriptive statistics in order to evaluate the impact of climate on the yield of yam. The findings revealed that yam production was higher between the year 2010 and 2011 followed by a much lower production rate in the year 2012. There was variation in the trend pattern of rainfall. Temperature was not relatively constant either. The findings also revealed that temperature has a negative relationship with yam yield implying that increase in temperature will result in decrease in yam yield and vice versa. The findings also revealed that there were adaptation strategies put in place by the farmers to mitigate the impact of climate change such as mixed cropping, mulching, application of farm manure and planting of cover crops. This study recommended that continuous training of extension workers on current

information about climate change and encouragement farmers by providing incentives and subsidizing inputs for them.

Keywords: Climate Change, Crop Yield, Constraints, Adaptation


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1 INTRODUCTION

Agriculture continues to be the mainstay of the economy. It is an important contributor to

employment and food security or rural households. Agriculture is one of the most climate

sensitive industries with outdoor production processes that depend on particular levels of

temperature and precipitation controlled by weather conditions. Agriculture represents a

relevant economic sector for the analysis of climate change, given that it is situated at the

interface between ecosystems and society, and it is highly affected by changes in environmental

conditions (Oelesen and Bindi, 2002; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012). The

agricultural sector has a multiplier effect on any nation’s socio-economic and industrial fabric

because of the multifunctional nature of the sector (Ogen, 2007). It has the potential to be the

industrial and economic springboard from which the country’s development can take off

(Stewart, 2003). This sector remains the main source of livelihood for most rural communities

in developing countries in general. Agriculture is a climate dependent activity that places

serious burden on the environment in the process of providing the teaming Nigeria population with food and fibres (Ayinde, Muchie and Olatunji, 2011).

In Nigeria, agriculture is the main source of food and employer of labour employing about

60-70 per cent of the population (Mayong et al. 2005). It is a significant sector of the economy

and the source of raw materials used in the processing industries as well as a source of foreign

exchange earning for the country (Mohammed-Lawal and Atte 2006). Since agriculture in

Nigeria is mostly rain-fed, it follows therefore that any change in climate is bound to impact its

productivity in particular and other socio-economic activities in the country (Ayinde et al.,

2011). The impact could, however, be measured in terms of effects on crop growth, availability

of soil water, soil erosion, incident of pest and diseases, sea level rises and decrease in soil fertility (Adejuwon 2004).

Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes both of which take place on a

global scale (Jeremy. 2008). Global warming is projected to have significant impact on

conditions affecting agriculture, including temperature, carbon dioxide, precipitation and the

interaction of these elements. These conditions determine the carry capacity of the biosphere

to produce enough food for the human population and domesticated animals (Marcoux, 2000).

According to Kahil, Connor and Albiac (2015), the severity of climate change impact depends on

the degree of adaptation at the farm level, farmers’ investment decisions and policy choices and

these factors are interrelated. The issue of climate change has become more threatening not

only to the sustainable development of socio-economic and agricultural activities of any nations

but to the totality of human existence (Adejuwon, 2004). As further explained by UNFCC

(2007), the effect of climate change implies that the local climate variability which people have

previously experienced and adapted to is changing and this change is observed in a relatively great speed.

Rainfall is by far the most important element of climate change in Nigeria and water

resources potential in the country (Adejuwon, 2004). Consistent reduction in rainfall leads to a

reduction in the natural regeneration rate of land resources (Fasona and Omojola, 2005).

According to Agboola (1997), soil moisture through rainfall is very important for plants growth.

When the negative aspect of rainfall on crop yield is carefully examined, it shows that rainfall

can lead to the development of many pest and diseases even on the crop. Inadequate rainfall


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on the other hand can cause witting of desiccation. Changes in rainfall patterns could cause

soil erosion, storms, floods and drought, affecting agricultural productivity. Suleiman (2009)

observes that climate effects would cause deepening food crisis resulting to energy decrease and general breakdown throughout the globe.

Climate change affects food and water resources that are critical for livelihood in Africa

where much of the population especially the poor, rely on local supply system that are sensitive

to climate variation (Ayinde et al., 2011). Distruptions of existing food and water systems will

have devastating implications for development and livelihood. These are expected to add to

the challenges climate change already poses for povety eradication (De Wit and Stankiewicz,

2006). According to Obioha (2009), the sustainability of the environment to provide all life

support systems and the materials for fulfilling all developmental aspiration of man and animal

is dependent on the suitability of the climate which is undergoing constant changes. Climatic

elements like rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration play key role in crop yield. The

unstable conditions of farming can affect the overall productivity of farmers, make them

abandon farming for some time, produce at capacities below their best or have little gains for

their efforts (Oluwasusi and Tijani, 2013). The effect of these changes is posing threat to food

security in Emure Ekiti. The specific objectives of this study therefore are to examine the trend

of rainfall, temperature and yam production in Emure Ekiti from year 2007 to 2016, identify the

impact of climate change on yam production and examine the adaptation strategies adopted by farmers to mitigate effect of climate change.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

Climate change is the complete variation or average state of the atmosphere over time

scales, ranging from decades to millions of years in a region or across the climate globe which

can be caused by processes internal to the earth, external forces from space or human activities

(Lemke, 2006), it is change of climate which attributed directly or indirectly to human activity

that alters the composition of the global atmosphere (UNFCCC, 2011). According to IPCC

(2007a), climate change is a change in the state of climate that can be identified by changes in

the mean and or the variability of its properties that persist for an extended period typically

decades or longer. Also, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC

(2007) attributes climate change directly or indirectly to human activities (anthropogenic

factors) that alter the composition of the global atmosphere and are in addition to nature

climate variability observed over a comparable period of time. Climate change can have both

direct and indirect impact on the general well-being of the people of a community who primarily

depend on natural resources such as agriculture and forest for their livelihood (Thapa et al.,

2017). In recent time, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change has

often been referred to as the noticeable variation in environmental and atmospheric

composition (IPCC, 2007b). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated

that climate change is emerging as one of the cardinal challenges of the 21st century (AFP,

2011). Human induced climate change resulting from increase in the concentration of

greenhouse gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere and food insecurity are too related threats facing

mankind in the 21st century. IPCC observed the unrelenting emission of greenhouse gasses into

the atmosphere (Omojolaibi, 2014). The gasses emitted into the atmosphere include carbon

dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), Hydroflourocarbons (HFCs)


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Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and Carbonhexafluoride (CF6). All these gasses were unambiguously

articulated in the Kyoto protocol. CO2 among the gasses increased over the per capita income

and population and thereby contributes to over 40% of the total emission of GHGs (Odingo,

2002). Most of the GHG are extremely effective at absorbing heat escaping from the earth and

keeping it trapped (Church & White, 2006). In other words, it takes only small amounts of

these gases to significantly change the properties of the atmosphere. By comparison, the

atmospheric GHGs that cause the earth's natural greenhouse effect total less than 1% of the

atmosphere while 99% of the dry atmosphere consists of nitrogen and oxygen, which are

relatively transparent to sunlight and infrared energy, and have little effect on the flow of sunlight and heat energy through the space (NASA, 2011).

A little supply of GHGs above normal has drastic effects as such small percentage caused

an increase of the earth's average surface temperature from -19°C to +14°C – a difference of

about 33°C (NASA, 2011). Because the required concentration of greenhouse gases for

normalcy in the atmosphere is so low, human emissions can have a significant effect. For

example, human emissions of CO2 currently amount to roughly 28 billion metric tons per year

(IPCC, 2011). In some cases, the term climate change is used with a presumption of human

causation of continuous weather alteration, as stated in the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2011). Climate change in the context of this study

refers to the variation in the statistical distribution of average weather conditions over a

prolonged period of time. Climate is not static, that is, it changes with time. This usually

results in a clear and permanent impact on ecosystem (Tsojon, 2017). Reports have shown

that increasing global temperature is likely to boost agricultural production in the temperate

regions and it is expected to reduce yields in the tropical regions of the world (WTO-UNEP,

2009). It is projected that many African regions will suffer from drought and floods with greater

frequency and intensity in the nearest future (IPCC, 2007b). The report further observed that

the rise in average temperature between 1980/1999 and 2080/2099 would be in the range of

3˚C - 4˚C across the entire African continent which is 1.5 times more than global level. The

report continued that Africa’s Mediterranean region will experience a de crease in precipitations

during the century. These dry conditions would affect the northern boundary of the Sahara where Africa lies.

Agricultural produces goods which are utilized by man and industries directly or indirectly.

Farmers utilize scarce resources to produce agricultural goods (crops and animals) that are

useful to man and industries, thus they can be referred to as agricultural producers. In the

view, agricultural production is the process of utilizing resources such as land, labour, capital

and entrepreneurial skills to create goods that have exchange and utility values to man and

industries. Agricultural productions, like every other production processes, require certain conditions for good yield; these conditions are usually affected by climate.

There are innumerable potential effects climate change could have on agriculture. It

could affect crop growth and quality, livestock health, and pests. Climate change could affect

farming practices, as well as pest control and the varieties of crops and animals that could be

raised in particular climactic areas. These could, in turn, affect the availability and price of

agriculture products as well as the costs of doing business (Moore et al., 2017). Climate

change impacts on agriculture varied over space and time. The effects are heterogeneous and highly uncertain ( Zilberma et al., 2017).


133

Agriculture is the mainstay of majority of households in Nigeria and a significant

determinant of the Nigerian economy. The significance of the agricultural sector cannot be

overemphasized as it a catalyst for food production, contributing to the gross domestic product,

provision of employment and raw materials for agro allied industries, and generation of foreign

earnings. A sectorial analysis in 2006 of the real GDP indicated that the agricultural sector

contributed about 42 percent compared with 41.2% percent in 2005 (CBN, 2007). Similarly the

growth rate of the contribution of the agricultural sector to the GDP at 1990 constant basic

prices grew from 4.2 percent in 2002 to 7.2 percent in 2006, 7.21 percent in 2007, 6.2 percent

in 2008, 5.9 percent in 2009, 4.2 percent in 2002 to 4.12 percent in 2014. The agricultural sector also employed over 60 percent of the total labour force in Nigeria in 1999 (Agba, 2015).

Crop production takes a significant part of agricultural production in Nigeria. Generally there

are many factors influencing crop production and these include soil, relief, climate and diseases

among others. In relation to climate, rainfall is one of the dominant controlling variables in

tropical agriculture since it supplies soil moisture for crops. Nigeria’s wide range of climate

variation allows it to produce a wide variety of cash and food crops (Tunde et al., 2011).

Climate is an important resource to crop production in Nigeria especially in the rainforest zone

of Nigeria as farmers depend largely on rain for agriculture. Studies indicate that Africa’s

agriculture is negatively affected by climate change, and that adaptation is one of the policy

options for reducing the negative impact of climate change (Adger et al., 2003; Kurukulasuriya,

2008). Ayinde et al. (2011) pointed out that climate fluctuation is putting Nigeria’s agricultural

system under serious threat and stress. This implies that rural sustainability and food security is

under serious threat as crop production takes significant aspect of agricultural activities in

Nigeria. The salinization of underground water leads to shortage of underground fresh water

which the inhabitants of the region (mostly farmers) depend on as their main source of water

for drinking and for other domestic use (Awosika, 1995). Other impact of sea level rise on the

region is the emergence of health-related hazards for the farmer and his family. Rise in

temperature and humidity increases pest and disease and the risk of invasion as well as other

natural disasters like floods, ocean and storm surges, which not only damage sources of

livelihood but also causes harm to farmland, post-harvest activities, life and property (Idowu et

al, 2011). The evolution of agriculture in the future will be shaped by its response to climate

change. Farmers need to adapt their practices to accommodate climatic conditions and

agricultural activities will need to be modified to reduce greenhouse gas emission.

The Study Area

Emure Ekiti is located between latitude 7022ʺ and 703 north of the equator and longitude

5026ʺ and 5036ʺ East of the Greenwich Meridian. It is bounded in the north by Agbado-Ekiti in

Gbonyin Local Government Area, in the south by Owo in Ondo State,in the west by Ise/Orun

Local Government Area and in the east by Supare Akoko in Ondo state(Fig. 1). The population of Emure Ekiti as at the 2006 National Census is 94,264.

Geologically, the region lies entirely within the pre-Cambrian basement complex rock group

which underlies much of Ekiti State. The temperature of the area is almost uniform throughout

the year and the rainfall is highly seasonal with well-marked wet and dry season. The wet


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season lasts from April to October with a break in August. The main occupation of the Emure Ekiti people is farming.

Fig. 1: Map of Ekiti State Showing the Study Area

3. Methodology

Data used in this research work was generated from both primary and secondary source.

Emure Ekiti is divided into four quarters namely Oke Emure, Odo Emure, Ogbontioro and

Idamudu. Fifty farmers were randomly selected from each quarters and this gave a sample size of 200 farmers. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain information from the farmers.


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Rainfall and temperature data covering the years under study was obtained from the

archives of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) which ranged from 2007-2016.

Availability and reliability of the annual rainfall and temperature data was considered hence

data from NIMET was used because if their longstanding operational stations, standard equipment and personnel.

Data on yam production was collected from the Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) Ekiti State and it covers a period of ten years from 2007-2016.

Descriptive statistics was used to analyze the data using Statistical Packages of Social Sciences (SPSS).

Analysis and Discussion

Trend of Yam Production

The study revealed that there are persistently higher rates in yam production between 2010

and 2011 in the study area (Fig. 2). Findings further revealed that a much lower rate was

experienced in yam production in the year 2012. In fact sharp and great reduction was

revealed in the year 2012.


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Fig. 2: Yam Production Index Trend

Trend of Annual Rainfall

Rainfall distribution over the study period is presented in Table 1 while the rainfall

distribution for ten years (2007-2016) is also presented as Table 2. The months of May, June,

July, August, September and October usually had the heaviest rainfall while there is a decline in November to April.


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Table 1: Mean Monthly Rainfall at Emure Ekiti

Month Mean (mm)

January 2.68

February 30.21

March 47.27

April 75.91

May 115.46

June 154.91

July 212.92

August 104.83

September 165.66

October 173.52

November 35.97

December 11.33

Table 2: Ten Years Mean annual rainfall of Emure Ekiti

Years Annual Rainfall (mm) Mean (mm)

2007 507.3 42.28

2008 1373.5 114.46

2009 1433.1 119.43

2010 1753.4 146.12

2011 1760.4 146.7

2012 1394.7 116.23

2013 1417.5 118.13

2014 1286.8 107.23

2015 1445.99 120.50

2016 1195.2 99.6

Figure 3 shows the trend of total rainfall across the years (2007-2016). Year 2011 has the

highest amount of rainfall with a sharp decline in year 2012 while there is no particular trend in the remaining years (2013-2016).


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Fig. 3: Rainfall Trend

Relationship between rainfall distribution and yam production in the study area is presented in

Table 3. Findings revealed that there was increase in yield of yam in 2010 and 2011 and this

could be attributed to moderate rainfall distribution during the planting and growing seasons

similar to the findings of Yahaya et al. (2014) in Kuta. According to them, rainfall variability

from season to season greatly affects soil water availability and thus poses yam production risks. Yam formation is favored greatly by moderate rainfall that is well spread.

Table 3: Relationship between the Annual Rainfall and Yam Yield in the study area

Years Yam Production in Tons Rainfall (mm)

2007 20 507.3

2008 63 1373.5

2009 85 1433.1

2010 337 1753.4


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2011 445 1760.4

2012 120.5 1394.7

2013 255.6 1417.5

2014 98.8 1286.8

2015 292 1445.99

2016 95 1195.2

Trend in Annual Temperature

The trend of yearly total temperature in the study area from 2007-2016 could be seen in

Fig. 4. Year 2016 has the highest temperature of 310C while the lowest temperature occur in

2011 with a temperature of 290C. According to Srivastava et al. (2012), the optimal

temperature for growth of yam is between 250C and 300C depending on the species of yam.

The annual average temperature in Emure Ekiti is 300C which is within the range of the optimal

temperature required for yam growth and development. Findings revealed that there was

increase in the yield of yam in 2011 implying that increase in yam yield recorded for year 2011 may be as a result of decrease in temperature.


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Fig 4: Temperature Trend

Impact of Climate Change on Yam Production

Table 4 below shows the various impact change in climate have on yam production in the

study area. Majority of the respondents (92%) indicated reduction in soil fertility, shortage of

water and low crop yield as serious constraints confronting yam production. Other constraints

recorded high percentage of seriousness except withdrawal of labour that recorded low level of

seriousness (15%). This implies that the farmers had access to labour which could help enhance their production capacity but limited by other factors.


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Table 4: Impact of Climate Change on Yam Production

Constraints Effect of Constraint (%)

Serious Mild Not a Constraint

Low Crop Yield 92 8 0

Pest and Disease Infestation of crops 87 10 3

Reduction in Soil Fertility 92 8 0

Change in Planting period 84 14 2

Shortage of water 92 8 0

Drying of yam seed due to high temperature 79 29 2

Quantity of fertilizer application 53 40 7

Stunted Growth 82.4 9.6 8

Withdrawal of labour force 15 67 18

Source: Field Survey, 2017

Adaptation Strategies Adopted by Farmers

Table 5 shows various adaptation strategies employed by yam farmers to mitigate the

impact of climate change. 15% of the respondents indicated mixed cropping as adaptation

strategy employed to mitigate the impact of climate change. Also, 12.5% of the respondents

used planting of cover crops and planting of early maturing yam as adaptation strategy while

11.5% respondents agreed that they use of mulching materials as adaptation strategy.

Findings also showed that 11% of the respondents applied farm manure and engage in crop

rotation. Furthermore, 10.5% of the respondents changed their planting periods while 9% of

the respondents used planting of tress as adaptation strategy. In addition, 7% of the

respondents leave their farmland fallow for a period of time. Ole et al (2009) validated the

above findings that rural communities have always managed their resources and livelihoods in the face of challenging environmental conditions.

Table 5: Adaptation Strategies

Adaptation Strategies Frequency Percentage

Mulching 23 11.5

Application of farm manure 22 11

Mixed Cropping 30 15

Crop Rotation 22 11

Change in planting periods 21 10.5

Bush Fallowing 14 7


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Planting of trees 18 9

Planting of cover crops 25 12.5

Planting of early maturing yam 25 12.5

Total 200 100

Source: Field Survey, 2017

4. CONCLUSION

The study shows that there was increase in yield of yam in 2010 and 2011 and this could be

attributed to moderate rainfall distribution during the planting and growing seasons. The study

also shows that there was increase in the yield of yam in 2011 implying that increase in yam yield recorded for year 2011 may be as a result of decrease in temperature.

. The farmers were aware of climate change and had enormous climate related constraints

limiting their level of production. The farmers used various adaptation strategies such as mixed

cropping, planting of cover crops, planting of early maturing yam, application of farm manure, crop rotation to mitigate the impact of climate change.

5. RECOMMENDA TIONS

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations has been proffered;

Extension workers should be continuously trained and educated on current information about

climate change and sent out to enlighten the farmers. This will enable them to update and

synchronize ideas with the farmers. Farmers in the region should be encouraged by providing

incentives such as fertilizers and subsidizing inputs for them. This will go a long way in improving production.

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