Impact of Climate Change on Water AvailabilityImpact of Climate Change on Water Availability

Historical climatological data indicates warming in upper snow Historical climatological data indicates warming in upper snow

covered parts of the Indus basin and some increase in rainfall covered parts of the Indus basin and some increase in rainfall

in flood generating areas, whereas decrease in rainfall, rise in in flood generating areas, whereas decrease in rainfall, rise in

maximum temperature and decrease in minimum temperature maximum temperature and decrease in minimum temperature

is observed during is observed during 1968-97 from that of 1937-67 in arid areas1968-97 from that of 1937-67 in arid areas

The analysis of both the Rabi and Kharif seasons indicated a The analysis of both the Rabi and Kharif seasons indicated a

6.4% reduction in river flows during 1968-97 from that of 1937-6.4% reduction in river flows during 1968-97 from that of 1937-

6767

A reduction of 6.7% in base flow of Indus basin is A reduction of 6.7% in base flow of Indus basin is estimated in 2020 at 0.3% decadal increase in estimated in 2020 at 0.3% decadal increase in temperature and 1% decrease in decadal precipitationtemperature and 1% decrease in decadal precipitation

2 % increase in reference crop ET is estimated by 2020 2 % increase in reference crop ET is estimated by 2020 resulting in increased irrigation requirements of cropsresulting in increased irrigation requirements of crops

IPCC 2001 predicts 27 % reduction in the Indus basin IPCC 2001 predicts 27 % reduction in the Indus basin inflows by the year 2050inflows by the year 2050

Impact of Climate Change on Water AvailabilityImpact of Climate Change on Water Availability

ProductionProduction

Less growing season lengthLess growing season length High crop water requirementHigh crop water requirement Low water availability (site 1)Low water availability (site 1) Change in rainfall pattern, so may effect current cropping systemChange in rainfall pattern, so may effect current cropping system Shift from high delta crops to low delta crops (Site 1)Shift from high delta crops to low delta crops (Site 1) Frequency of extreme eventsFrequency of extreme events Droughts/Floods Droughts/Floods With increase in relative humidity in rice intensive areas greater With increase in relative humidity in rice intensive areas greater

incidence of plant pests/ diseaseincidence of plant pests/ disease Land degradation due to drought and flooding, bank cutting, sand Land degradation due to drought and flooding, bank cutting, sand

castingcasting Loss in production due to rainfall at harvesting timeLoss in production due to rainfall at harvesting time

AccessAccess

High cost of production due to high cost of High cost of production due to high cost of irrigation due to low surface water availabilityirrigation due to low surface water availability

Change in selling patternChange in selling pattern Decrease in profitability Decrease in profitability Incidence of Poverty Incidence of Poverty Decrease in competitivenessDecrease in competitiveness Increased use of chemicals leading to high cost Increased use of chemicals leading to high cost

of production and prices of foodof production and prices of food Bigger gap in gender aspectBigger gap in gender aspect

Adaptive Capacity of Adaptive Capacity of outcomes to GEC outcomes to GEC

changes: changes: The Case of 1, 2,3 SitesThe Case of 1, 2,3 Sites

ProductionProduction Social:Social: Crop pattern can be diversified requiring less water Crop pattern can be diversified requiring less water

(Ludhiana)(Ludhiana) Conjunctive use of surface water with groundwater Conjunctive use of surface water with groundwater

(Ludhiana, Gujarat)(Ludhiana, Gujarat) Diversification in the income activities like shifting to Diversification in the income activities like shifting to

dairy and poultry (Ludhiana, Gujarat)dairy and poultry (Ludhiana, Gujarat) Shifting to water saving techniquesShifting to water saving techniques Developing/adopting those cultivars of rice, which Developing/adopting those cultivars of rice, which

have short durationhave short duration

ProductionProduction

Shift in public investment priorities (Government Shift in public investment priorities (Government support in research and development) towards dis-support in research and development) towards dis-advanteagous areas/crops/enterprisesadvanteagous areas/crops/enterprises

Emphasis on water use efficiency measures Emphasis on water use efficiency measures Technology emphasis on water use efficiencyTechnology emphasis on water use efficiency -zero till in wheat, raised bed in wheat, bund and -zero till in wheat, raised bed in wheat, bund and

furrow cultivation of ricefurrow cultivation of rice -Irrigation methods-Irrigation methods -Rain water harvesting -Rain water harvesting Early warning systemsEarly warning systems

AccessAccess

MigrationMigration

Credit Credit

Community supportCommunity support

Efficient storageEfficient storage

Through diversification of enterprisesThrough diversification of enterprises

UtilizationUtilization

Promoting local food habitsPromoting local food habits Changing food basketChanging food basket

Coping StrategiesCoping Strategies

Reducing conveyance losses by improving water Reducing conveyance losses by improving water distribution networkdistribution network

Managing water shortage by demand management, Managing water shortage by demand management, adjusting cropping pattern with water availability and adjusting cropping pattern with water availability and cultivation of drought resistant crop varietiescultivation of drought resistant crop varieties

Improving water productivity through improved field Improving water productivity through improved field layout, efficient irrigation techniques and optimized layout, efficient irrigation techniques and optimized irrigationirrigation

Reducing vulnerability to water related disasters - Reducing vulnerability to water related disasters - droughts and floods.droughts and floods.

Early waning system/ Weather Information sharing Early waning system/ Weather Information sharing systemsystem

Water saving techniquesWater saving techniques Heat resistant /shot duration veritiesHeat resistant /shot duration verities

Coping StrategiesCoping Strategies