IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

PUBLIC SERVICES IN EUROPE

Jan Willem GoudriaanEuropean Federation of Public Service Trade

Unions

ETUI Conference Climate Change Opportunity for Social Cooperation 29 March 2011 Brussels

Combating climate change requires a mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies

Addressing climate change could be an opportunity for public services’ unions

EU climate change policies are biaised towards market-based approaches

EPSU strategy

Combating climate change requires a mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies

Linking mitigation and adaptation

Overwhelming scientific proof of climate change, (estimates conservative?) human activities are crucial factors, and this can be catastrophic, particularly for public infrastructure and services

Mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) is essential to prevent the avoidable… Adaptation is essential to cope with the unavoidable.

Water stress and droughts

Source: Centers for environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel. June 2001

Changes in severity of water stress and drought frequencies by 2070

Coastal flooding

Source: PESETA project. Coastal systems assessment

People actually flooded (thousands/year) across Europe by 2080s– Optimistic scenario

1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 18621863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 18711872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 18801881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 18891890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 18981899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 19071908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 19161917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 19251926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 19341935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 19431944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 19521953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 19611962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 19701971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 19791980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 19881989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062007 2008 2009

Each of the last 13 years was among the 14 warmest years on

record

Climate change could be an

opportunity for public services’ unions

Public services are at the fore front of climate action

Adaptation and mitigation bring opportunities for the creation of secure, quality jobs in all public services and utilities :

- Energy supply and distribution- Waste and Water management- Health care, social services - Central, local and regional governments

- Prevention, disaster, planning Public-Public Partnerships with developing countries However, adaptation will require a major departure from

business as usual in terms of skills and practices

Environmental Services in EPSU

Four sectors of public service character (solid waste management, waste water treatment, general public administration related to environment, and nature protection) make up almost 90% of total employment in pollution management industries.

And many other services will see change

Central Government

Environmental protection agencies Meteorological services Public buildings and infrastructure Insurance, financial, economic

regulation Research Security/ defence

Social Services

Impact on low income households• Advisory services - energy

Emergency situations Migration (EU COM  » displaced

populations »

Municipal and Local Government

Tasks and responsibilities for disaster risk reduction and most of the mitigation, preparedness, planning and recovery efforts have been transferred to this level

Responsible for key local infrastructures – urban transport, health care, refuse, water, energy, planning, coordination of emergency services (firefighting, police, ambulance, civil protecion..)

But - sufficient human and financial resources (local budgets)

Health

Diseases – different regional impacts

Consumer of energy- CO2 producing Adaptation

Surveillance Being prepared for extreme conditions (cold, heat waves)

Longer term perspectives…

Utilities

Water and Waste Water Treatment Electricity and Gas

Shifts in employment across sectors Challenges – smart grids, smart meters

Waste Collection, sorting, recycling

Investment needs enormous Risk of market based solutions

Box 3: Report from the UK electricity and gas regulator (OFGEM) - Options for delivering secure and sustainable energy supplies

 

The UK regulator OFGEM published a report in February 2010. It examines if the “current arrangements in GB are adequate for delivering secure and sustainable electricity and gas supplies over the next 10-15 years. The key issues are:

There is a need for unprecedented levels of investment to be sustained over many years in difficult financial conditions and against a background of increased risk and uncertainty

The uncertainty in future carbon prices is likely to delay or deter investment in low carbon technology and lead to greater decarbonisation costs in the future.

Short term price signals at times of system stress do not fully reflect the value that customers place on supply security which may mean that the incentives to make additional peak energy supplies available and to invest in peaking capacity are not strong enough.

Interdependence with international markets exposes GB to a range of additional risks that may undermine GB security of supply.

The higher cost of gas and electricity may mean that increasing numbers of consumers are not able to afford adequate levels of energy to meet their requirements and that the competitiveness of industry and business is affected years.

Opportunities for progressive social change

Better working conditions: shorten working hours, reduced air pollution

Increased democratic control of the economy, less market competition

Reduced social inequalities

Gender equality

Strengthened social protection systems

EU climate change policies are biaised towards a market-based

approach

EU White Paper on Adaptation (April 2009)

Strongly promotes market based instruments such as private insurance and Public-Private Partnerships, despite evidence of their inefficiency in delivering public goods (e.g. PSIRU)

But : Acknowledges that climate change worsens

existing inequalities across regions and households Recommends an assessment of the potential

employment impacts of climate change in Europe

EU climate change and energy package

Europe must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020

Carbon trading ‘mantra’ Establishes White Certificates trading A liberalised electricity and gas market is

assumed to be positive for environmental goals

Europe 2020 Strategy for Growth and Jobs

Europe 2020 strategy makes the case for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth

Flagships initiative « Resource efficient Europe » :

« Decouple economic growth from the use of resources, support the shift towards a low carbon economy, increase the use of renewable energy sources, modernise our tranport sector and promote energy efficiency ».

Europe 2050 Towards Low Carbon Society

New targets Power sector to deliver major effort Build environment (public buildings...)

Emphasis on Energy Efficiency but not binding

Stresses role of private sector and private savings in delivering investment while recognising market does not deliver

Skimpy on Just Transition – funding for change

Environment, Climate Change and Austerity

Concerns about job cuts Human resource capacity in regulatory

agencies – environmental protection (nuclear safety ??)

Pay freezes and cuts Recruitment and retention of qualified staff ?

Resources What is core business ?

Annual Growth Survey, Economic Governance

Reprioritising the targets and EU 2020 strategy

Absence of positive social agenda, poverty reduction measures and climate change policies (sole focus on energy...)

Euro-Pact-Plus Further reinforces the Annual Growth

Strategy No positive environmental side Austerity endangers steps towards low-

carbon environmentally friendly economy

Recommendations for EPSU policy strategy

Support a EU ‘Just Employment Transition’ package

Strengthened social dialogue on climate change, supported by employment impact assessment studies

A massive EU investment programme in labour intensive, green public infrastructure and services, creating quality employment.

An EU Strategy for skills development and retraining of the workforce in order to make the transition to new green jobs possible for the workers

Strengthened social protection systems Public services solutions for delivering energy

efficiency and renewable energy

Just Employment Transition Electricity

Social dialogue electricity EPSU/EMCEF –Eurelectric project: Towards a low carbon electricity: employment effects and opportunities for the social partners

Just transition – shift (transition) towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly economy based on social dialogue between governments, employers and trade unions in a way that promotes high economic growth and investments in low carbon technologies while ensuring a smooth transition through adaptation and mitigation actions as well as through development of skilling and reskilling programmes and the creation of quality jobs

Endorse a proactive climate change agenda

EPSU consider EU emissions reduction commitment to 30%, given that: Developed countries’ fair share of effort is estimated to 25-

40% by the IPCC Substantial co-benefits would accrue to public services

sectors and workers, as well as most vulnerable social groups

Flexibility mechanisms lessen the costs of achieving 30% target

Emissions have fallen as a result of the economic crisis BUT with conditions: more commitment of large emitting

countries, funding for just transition - investment, training and jobs for those sectors and regions affected and safeguarding investment in the most efficient technologies..

Binding EU energy efficiency targets for 2020 EU targets on green and social public procurement Beyond GDP

For discussion: Rethink the relationship between growth and well-being

The « myth of decoupling » : continued economic growth with continually declining material throughput is possible

Achieving an equitable distribution of incomes across nations implies that material growth is curtailed in the richer nations

Social change – including changes in working time, consumption patterns, and social modes of organization – will be as important as technological advances

Developing new measurements of progress that include environmental and social indicators (Beyond GDP)

www.epsu.org

...faster than expected

IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007) now looks conservative

Subsequent research shows

increasing rates of: Global Greenhouse Gas emissions Ice melting (Arctic sea ice, Greenland/Antarctic

ice-sheets, alpine glaciers)

Sea level rise

Also: carbon stored in permafrost = twice the

atmospheric carbon

Climate change is occuring …

Temperature: +0.74°C since 100 years

Sea level rise1,3 mm/year since 18701,8 mm/year since 19613,1 mm/year since 1993Glacier and snow cover

retreat