1.IMPACT OF CHINESE AND INDIANECONOMIC BOOMS ON THEENVIRONMENT Manish Bapna Executive Vice President, WRI(Photo: Andreas/Flickr)

2. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and Indias Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives5. Politics Going Forward 3. WRIS MISSION | To move humansociety to live in ways that protectEarths environment and its capacityto provide for the needs and aspirationsof current and future generations. 4. WRIS WORK | We work withgovernments, companies, and civil societyto build solutions to urgent environmentaland development challenges. 5. WRIS APPROACHManaging for ResultsScaling IMPACT AnalysisPartnerships 6. WRI GLOBAL PRESENCEInstitutionalProject staff on ground, deeppartnership, and/or project officeAt least one partner 7. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and Indias Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives5. Politics Going Forward(Photo: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr) 8. GDP GROWTH: WHERE NEXT? 16 14 12 China 2013(8.2%)GDP growth (%) 1086 India4 2013(5.9%)2 0 1994-20032005 2007 2009 2011 2013(IMF, 2012) 9. SHIFTING POWERS 10. EXPLOSION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS 11. EXPLOSION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS 3 billion added by 2030 90% of growth in Asia mostly India and China (Photo: ben124/Flickr) 12. CHINESE CITIES GROWING QUICKLY530 Million people livingin cities in 2005 78%urban930 Million people livingin cities in 2025contributionto GDPINDIAN CITIES SLOWER315 Million people livingin cities in 200839% Urban contribution to530Million people living in cities in 2025 GDP(McKinsey Global Institute 2012, ) 13. ARE WE RUNNING OUT?Price trends of major commodity bundles (real 2005 dollars)250 Food Energy Timber200 Fertilizers Metals and Minerals Price in real 2005 dollars150100501960 1970 1980 19902000 2010(WRI chart using World Bank data, 2012) 14. CHINA DRIVES GLOBAL CONSUMPTIONShare of the world total 53% 47%48% 45%28%Iron Ore Cement Steel10% CoalCO2GDP 15. AND INDIA IS A SIGNIFICANT PLAYERShare of the world total 8% 6%5% 4% 3%CoalCO2 SteelGDPOil 16. CHINAS ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATIONIS MASSIVELY COSTLY 10Cost of environmental degradation as9.2% OF GDP8 % of GDP equivalent6420(World Bank reports, 2005-2012) 17. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and Indias Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives5. Politics Going Forward 18. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY(WRI, 2012) 19. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY INDIA(WRI, 2012) 20. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY CHINA INDIA(WRI, 2012) 21. COAL | COAL DEVELOPMENT AND WATER RISK 22. COAL | NEGATIVE HEALTH IMPACTS Average PM 2.5 Concentrations 2008 - 2010 23. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 2009Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 8 6 4 2 01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20252030(EIA, 2009-2012) 24. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 20092010Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 8 6 4 2 01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20252030(EIA, 2009-2012) 25. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 20092010Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 82011 6 4 2 01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20252030(EIA, 2009-2012) 26. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 20092010Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 82011 62012 4 2 01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20252030(EIA, 2009-2012) 27. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS RESERVES 100 500 trillion ft3 500- 1000 trillion ft3 1,000 + trillion ft3N.B. Estimates for Russia and the Middle East are not included(EIA, 2011) 28. RENEWABLE ENERGY | CHINA LEADSRenewable energy installed capacity 140 120 100 Gigawatts 80 60 40 200 ChinaChina United Germany Spain U.S. Germany Spain ItalyItaly Japan Japan IndiaIndia France France Brazil BrazilStates(Pew, 2012) 29. RENEWABLE ENERGY | INDIATotal Invested in 2011: $10.2 billionDistribution by Sector, 2005 201115%2%WindSolarBiofuels52%Other Renewables 31% 30. RENEWABLE ENERGY | CHINATotal invested in 2011: $45.5 billionDistribution by Sector, 2005 20113% 1%13%WindSolar 14%Other RenewablesBiofuels69% Efficiency & low carbonTech/services 31. RENEWABLE ENERGY | CHINAS GOALS FOR 2020 160 120GW of EnergyInstalled capacity 80Target 400 Wind Biomass Solar(Pew, 2012) 32. RENEWABLE ENERGY | INDIAS GOALS FOR 2012 20 16GW of Energy 12 Installed capacity 8 Target 4 0Wind Biomass Solar(Pew, 2012) 33. WATER | BASELINE WATER STRESS 34. WATER | WHERE FLOOD RISK IS GREATEST 35. WATER | WHERE DROUGHT THREATENS 36. FOOD | WATER FOR AGRICULTURE IN 2025 37. FOOD | CROP YIELDS UNDER THREAT (World Bank, World Development Report 2010) 38. FORESTS | DEMAND DRIVES GLOBAL DEFORESTATION 39. FORESTS | POTENTIAL EXTENT Potential Extent of Forests and Woodlands Where forests would grow if climate and soils were the only constraint 40. FORESTS | CURRENT EXTENT Current Extent of Forests and Woodlands Where they are today 41. FORESTS | RESTORATION OPPORTUNITIES 42. CITIES | INDIAS AIR POLLUTION Thousand premature 630,000 deaths from air pollution in 201078%Of Indian cities exceeding PM10 limits(Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 2012, ) 43. CITIES | CHINAS AIR POLLUTION Days in January 14with AQI very unhealthy or hazardous Januarys average199PM 2.5 air quality index unhealthy 44. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and Indias Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives Climate Change Resource Consumption Clean Energy Trade War5. Politics Going Forward 45. CLIMATE CHANGE | TOTAL & PER CAPITA EMISSIONS12,0003010,00025 MT CO2e per Capita 8,00020MT CO2e Total 6,00015 4,00010 2,00050 0 46. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY AREAmbition in Chinas 12th Five Year Plan16% 17%Energy intensityCarbon intensity 11% 1.25 M Non-fossil fuel hectare increase in energydomestic forest coverSources: Deborah Seligsohn on ChinaFAQs; The Climate Group; Reuters 47. CHINAS CARBON TRADING PILOTS Carbon Trading Pilots Low-Carbon Provinces & Cities 48. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY AREIndias National Action Plan for Climate Change 20-25% Emissions intensity reduction by 2020 under 2005 levels20 GW98 MTSolar PowerCO2-eq. savings byinstalled by 20222015 from energy efficiency by 2020 49. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY ARE - TBCIndias National Action Plan for Climate Change PAT Scheme Carbon Tax on coal (about $1 per ton) Feed in Tariffs (FITs) for Solar and Wind 50. THEY WILL BE HURTWeather: Typhoons and heat waves haveincreased in frequency and intensity Sea-Level Rise: projected increases would inundate thousands of kilometers Water: increase flooding and drought expected associated with melting glaciers and permafrost(Photo: Bert van Dijk/Flickr) 51. SHIFTING POLITICS - BASIC 52. SHIFTING POLITICSAny attempts to recategorizedeveloped and developing countrieswould delay progresswithnothing to come at the end. China submission to UNFCCC Process, March 2013 53. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and Indias Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives Climate Change Resource Consumption Clean Energy Trade War5. Politics Going Forward 54. INCREASING OVERSEAS INVESTMENT 55. 50%foreign directinvestment going toextractive industries$16bn 2011 Chinese investments in Africa(Photo: ENOUGH Project/Flickr) 56. INCREASING OVERSEAS INVESTMENT 57. COAL | U.S. COAL EXPORTS ARE RISING (2002 = 1.0) 3.5 3.0 2.5Relative to 2002 2.0 1.5 EXPORTS 1.0 0.5 CONSUMPTION 0.020022004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 (EIA, 2012) 58. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and Indias Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives Climate Change Resource Consumption Clean Energy Trade War5. Politics Going Forward 59. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH CHINA The size of U.S.-China TradeImports from ChinaImports from ChinaTotalExports to ChinaOtherExports to ChinaSolar 0 100 200300 400 500Wind Billions of US dollars 0 100200300400 500(Pew Research Center 2012) 60. CLEANTECHTRADE WITH CHINAAreas of DisputeU.S. tariffs on solar panelsand wind towers importedfrom ChinaChinese conducting an anti-dumping and subsidyinvestigation on importedpolysilicon from the US,EU and S. Korea 61. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH CHINAAreas of ProgressAreas of Progress on Trade(all is not bleak) 62. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH CHINAGoing ForwardCompetitiveness in clean tech depend significantly on factors outsidetrade Creating markets forlow-carbon power Financing companies Creating newknowledge Providing clearregulation 63. CLEAN ENERGY TRADE WITH INDIAHiccups Ahead?US Challenging Local-Content Requirements in the National Solar Mission 64. AGENDA1. WRI Overview2. China and Indias Rising Economic Power3. Resource Snapshots4. Deep Dives5. Politics Going Forward 65. 18TH NATIONAL CONGRESSOF THE COMMUNIST PARTYOF CHINA, NOVEMBER 2012We must fully implement theoverall plan for promotingeconomic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress.- PRESIDENT HU (Photo: Remko Tanis/Flickr) 66. THEY MUST ACT AND THEY AREFaster, More Inclusive, and Sustainable Growth No development process can afford to neglect the environmental consequences of economic activity, or allow unsustainable depletion and deterioration of natural resources - Indian Planning Commissions 12th Five Year Plan 67. GEARING UP FOR NEXT ELECTIONS IN 2014 What role for the environment?(Photo: Al Jazeera English/Flickr) 68. IMPACT OF CHINESE AND INDIANECONOMIC BOOMS ON THEENVIRONMENT Manish Bapna Executive Vice President, WRI(Photo: Andreas/Flickr) 69. DRIVING GLOBAL CONSUMPTIONShare of the world total50%40%30%IndiaChina20%10% 0% GDPCO2 Steel Coal Timber Palm Oil Fish(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)