IMPACT Model, Baseline, and Scenarios: New...

IMPACT Model, Baseline, and Scenarios: New Developments

Mark W. Rosegrant, Keith Wiebe, Sherman Robinson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Shahnila Islam, and

Nicostrato Perez

Environment and Production TechnologyInternational Food Policy Research Institute

Washington, DC, USA

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight ConferenceIFPRI

Washington, DCNovember 7, 2014

Outline

Improvements in IMPACT 3

New Look at

• Climate Change under IPCC AR5

• Livestock Scenarios

Conclusions

IMPACT Model System

What is new in IMPACT?

Geographic and crop disaggregation

• 58 agricultural commodities

Prices and markets

• Three markets: farm gate, national, international

• Tradability: traded and non-traded commodities

Land allocation to crops

Activity-Commodity framework

New Water models: hydrology, water basin management, water stress on crops

Modularity of the IMPACT model system

IMPACT 3 Spatial Disaggregation

159• Countries

154• Water Basins

320

• Food Production Units

Land Allocation to Crops

Land types: irrigated and rainfed land

Demand for land by crop is a function of commodity price and shadow price of land

Total supplies of irrigated and rainfed land shift in response to irrigation investment in each region (FPU)

Shadow price of land varies to equate supply and demand for land by type and region

• Solution determines allocation of land to crops

Oilseed Activity-Commodity Value Chain

Activity

• Soybean Farm(jsoyb)

• Demands land, fertilizer, labor

Activity Output

• Soybean Commodity(csoyb)

Activity

• Soybean Processing (jsbol)

• Demands soybeans (csoyb) at market price

Processed Commodities

• Soybean Oil (csbol)

• Soybean Meal (csbml)

IMPACT – A Suite of Linked Models

Modularity: “a la carte”

• Use only the modules you need

• Modules can be run in “stand-alone” mode as separate models (e.g., water models)

Linking modules

• Model system is driven by core multimarket economic model (IMPACT 3)

• Standardized data transfer between modules

- Information flows: dynamic interaction with core model

Baseline and Climate Change Results

Core drivers: population, GDP, land

Climate change:

• Suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of climate change

• Different assumptions about climate drivers: socioeconomic and greenhouse gas pathways

Changes in technology

Sources of Technology Change

Underlying Intrinsic Productivity Rates (IPRs)

• Exogenous trends in yields

Climate Change:

• Water: Hydrology, water basin management, water stress on crop yields

• Temperature: Crop Models (DSSAT)

Market Effects

• Changes in prices affect farmer behavior and yields (e.g. fertilizer use)

Core Drivers – Population, GDP, and Land (SSP2)

New Look at Climate Change under IPCC-AR 5

Climate Change Scenarios: Terminology

AR4

• SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

AR5

• SSPs – Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

• RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways

•SSP

•RCPSRES (A1B,

B1, etc.)

RCP – Climate Trends

RCP 2.6 is below anything from AR4

RCP 6 is most similar to A1B

RCP 8.5 is higher than anything AR4

Climate Change - Base Suite

NoCC – Historical climate

Four GCMs, IPCC-AR5, with one Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5

• IPSL, Hadley, MIROC, GFDL

Climate Change Baseline – with climate change, HadGEM2, RCP 8.5 and SSP2

Change in Cereal Yield between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

Change in Wheat Yield under Baseline, 2010, 2050: Climate Change Effects on Top 10 Wheat Producers

Change in Pulse Yield between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

Change in Fruits and Vegetables Yield between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

Change in Roots and Tubers Yield between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

Change in Cereal Prices between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

Change in Pulse Prices between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

Change in Roots and Tubers Prices between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

Change in Fruits and Vegetables Prices between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

New Look at Livestock Scenarios Under Climate Change

Sustainability of the Livestock Revolution

Impact of climate change• Reduced crop yield, higher feed prices

Slow down of production growth• Production growth started to decelerate in the last

decade

Environmental concerns with livestock development• GHG emission

• Pollution of surface and groundwater

• Soil compaction, erosion and loss of fertility

• Additional new land for feed-grain production

IMPACT Model and Baseline Projections to 2050

Acronyms, Abbreviations and Definitions

EAP - East Asia and Pacific

EECA - Eastern Europe and Central Asia

LAC - Latin America and the Caribbean

MENA - Middle East and North Africa

NAM - North America

OCE - Oceania

SAS - South Asia

SSA - Sub-Saharan Africa

WEU - Western Europe

Mutton - sheep meat

Chevon - goat meat

Baseline: with climate change, HadGEM2, RCP 8.5 and SSP2

BASELINE PROJECTIONS:Production, Consumption,

World Prices, Trade

Total Meat Production: Historical trends and baseline projections, by commodity, region, 1980-2010 and 2010-2050 with climate change

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

mil

lion

mt

Developed Countries – Meat Production

Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

mil

lion

mt

Developing Countries – Meat Production


Total Meat and Milk Products Demand: Historical trends and baseline projections by region, 1980-2010 and 2010-2050 with climate change

0

100

200

300

400

500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

mill

ion

mt

Demand for Meat

Developed Developing

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

mil

lion

mt

Demand for Milk

Developed Developing

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

mill

ion

mt

WEU

SSA

SAS

OCE

NAM

MENA

LAC

EECA

EAP0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

mill

ion

mt

WEU

SSA

SAS

OCE

NAM

MENA

LAC

EECA

EAP

Per Capita Consumption/Demand of Meat and Milk: Historical trends and baseline projections, by region, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2030 and 2050 with climate change

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

EAP EECA LAC MENA NAM OCE SAS SSA WEU

Kg/

cap

ita/

year

Meat Consumption/Demand

1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

EAP EECA LAC MENA NAM OCE SAS SSA WEU

Kg/

cap

ita/

year

Milk Consumption/Demand

1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050

World Prices of Meat and Milk Products: Baseline projections, 2015-2050

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

$/m

t

World Prices: $/mt

Beef

Pork

Poultry

Mutton/Chevon

Milk

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pri

ce In

de

x

World Prices: Relative to 2010

Beef

Pork

Poultry

Mutton/Chevon

Milk

Net Trade of Meat and Milk Products: Historical trends and baseline projections in developing countries, 1980-

2010 and 2010-2050 with climate change

-0.11

-6.56

0.33

-7.43

-1.52

-9.55

-5.02

-21.87

-17.59

-30.76

-24.25

-9.38

-35-30-25-20-15-10

-505

Meat Milk

mill

ion

mt

Developing Countries – Net Trade

1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050

0.47 0.03

-0.43 -0.19

0.41 0.23

-0.22 -0.09

0.21

-0.55 -0.93-0.25

0.18

-3.35

-1.16 -0.70-0.46

-9.97

-5.64

-1.52

1.32

-14.15

-9.39

-2.03

-16-14-12-10

-8-6-4-2024


mill

ion

mt

1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050

Alternative Scenarios forLivestock Production,

Consumption, Price, Trade

Alternative Livestock Development Policies

Intensive Growth in all countries (Int-All)• Technological improvement across all livestock producing countries

• Increased investment in agricultural R&D.

• Productivity increase equivalent to 10% in 2050 over the Baseline in all countries.

Intensive Growth in developing countries only (Int-Dvg)

• Technological improvement through agricultural R&D and

• Increased extension of existing modern production technologies

• Closing the yield gap between developed and developing countries.

• Productivity increase equivalent to 20% in 2050 over the Baseline in developing countries only.


Expansive Growth in all countries (Exp-All)• Intensive and extensive livestock development strategy.

• Combines yield improvement (intensive) and increases in stocks/production units (extensive)

• Productivity increase equivalent to 10% and additional 10% increase in the number of animals/stock in 2050 over the Baseline in all livestock producing countries.

Expansive Growth in developing countries only (Exp-Dvg)

• Intensive and extensive livestock development strategy focused on developing countries only

• Additional yield-gap extension strategy


Expansive Growth in developing countries only (Exp-Dvg)…continued

• Higher stocks and livestock production units to localize production in relatively increasing demand areas

• Productivity increase equivalent to 20% and additional 20% increase in the number of animals/stock in 2050 over the Baseline, in developing countries only

Baseline – business-as-usual• Historical trends in socio-economic parameters, level of investment in

research and technology development, population and GDP growth –are to continue

• No external intervention and exogenous shocks

Meat and Milk Production: Comparative projections by livestock development scenario, % deviation from

baseline, 2050

4.7 4.23.4 3

9.98.9

76.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

World - Meat World - Milk

% f

rom

Bas

elin

e

Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all

-8

11

2.8 3.7

-15.9

22.9

5.8 7.7

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Developed - Meat Developing - Meat

% f

rom

Bas

elin

e


-8.5

10.5

2.7 3.2

-16.7

21.6

5.6 6.5

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Developed -Milk Developing - Milk

% f

rom

Bas

elin

e


-18.1

-14.2

-16.9

-23.8

-11-12.7 -12.4 -13.1

-15.3

-8.4

-33.6

-27.5

-31.9

-42.4

-21.4

-23.8 -23.4-24.6

-28.3

-16.2

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon Milk

% f

rom

Bas

elin

e


World Prices of Meat and Milk Products: Comparative projections by livestock development scenario, %

deviation from baseline, 2050

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2010 - Beef 2050 - Beef 2010 - Pork 2050 - Pork 2010 - Poultry 2050 - Poultry 2010 - Mutton 2050 - Mutton

mill

ion

mt

Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all Baseline

Net Trade of Meat Products: Comparative projections by livestock development scenario in developing countries,

2010 and 2050

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 - Meat 2050 - Meat 2010 - Milk 2050 - Milk

mill

ion

mt

Int-dvg Int-all-dvg Exp-dvg Exp-all Baseline

Net Trade of Meat and Milk Products: Comparative projections by livestock development scenario in

developing countries, 2010 and 2050

Conclusions

Climate change impacts on yields vary significantly by crop and by region

Yield impacts in 2050 tend to be smaller than increases due to underlying improvements in productivity

Even small yield losses can have significant price impacts, with important implications for food security

Research in progress shows that improvements in traits such as drought tolerance and heat tolerance can help offset expected losses due to climate change

Investment in agricultural research for technology and productivity improvement is essential

Conclusions and Policy Implications

Need for further work on impacts under a range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios

IFPRI is collaborating with other leading global economic modeling teams through the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)



Rapid growth in livestock demand in developing countries continues

Demand is better met through expansionary policies focused on developing countries—but trade-offs need to be reduced

Investment in livestock research for technology and productivity improvement needs to be increased

Growth and development of the livestock sector has positive impacts on food production, trade and food security

New IMPACT livestock module will further address impact of rapid growth on pastures and grasslands

IMPACT Model, Baseline, and Scenarios: New...

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