Understanding Immigration:Key Issues in Immigration Debates and Prospects for Reform

Presented by

Judith Gans Immigration Policy Project Directorjudygans@email.arizona.edu

Udall Center Immigration Program Objectives

Illuminate rather than advocate

Focus on conceptual and analytic frameworksEngage a discussion at the political center Examine trade-offs

Research and publicationsProvide credible informationAvoid specific ‘outcome’ agenda

National and Arizona focus

Topics

Global and national context

Key issues in immigration debates Economic impactsCosts and contributionsIllegal ImmigrationNational security

Policy debates and prospects for reform

A World-Wide Phenomenon

UN estimates 190 to 200 million immigrants … ≈ 3.3% of the world's population

30% in the Americas (Canada & US = 42 million immigrants)20% in EuropeRemaining 50% around world with largest share in Asia

Cause and consequence of global economic integration… in everything except labor

Global remittances estimated at $150 billion per year

Source: Papademetriou, Demetrios G., “The Global Struggle with Illegal Immigration: No End in Sight”, Washington DC: Migration Policy Institute, September 1, 2005.

U.S. Laws Limit Economic Migration

Architecture of family reunification

Economic migration laws seek to:Minimize competition with U.S. workersProvide for scarce labor- Seasonal agricultural workers- Other seasonal workers- High skilled workers

Immigration to the U.S. Growing

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2004

Num

ber

(000

s)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Perc

ent

Number % of Total Population

35.7 Million Foreign Born in U.S.(2004 estimates*)

* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

Unauthorized Immigrants

10.3 million (29%)

Legal Permanent Residents

10.4 million (29%)

Naturalized Citizens

11.3 million (32%)

Temporary Legal Residents

1.2 million (3%)

Refugee Arrivals2.5 million (7%)

More and Different Countries of Origin

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

1870 1920 1970 1990

Europe Asia Latin America All Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Significant Demographic Impacts

20% of U.S. births occur to foreign-born mothers

Directly and indirectly, immigration accounts for ≈ 60% of U.S. population growth

Source: Bean, Fank & Gillian Stevens, America’s Newcomers and the Dynamics of Diversity, New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2003.

Economics Impacts

Immigrants Embedded in Labor Market

Slow U.S. population growth, tight labor markets, and high wages

Between 1990-2001, immigrants accounted for over 50% of growth in the civilian labor force

Example:

Between 1996 and 2000 (Economic boom)U.S. economy generated 14.3 million new jobs U.S. population increased by 12.3 million people including immigration

Strong ‘pull’ factor

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002

Changed Profile of U.S. Labor

Increases in proportion of low-skilled and high-skill laborSome crowding out of native-born workersProviding for scarce labor (i.e. agricultural labor, high tech workers)

In the Short Run: Lowers wages of some native born workers

In the Long Run: Shifts the mix of economic output with little or no impact on wages

Source: Hanson, Gordon G., “Why Does Immigration Divide America: Public Finance and Political Opposition to Open Borders”, University of San Diego and NBER, March 2005.

Income Growth Has Varied

Sources of Income: Arizona4th Quarter 2004 to 1st Quarter 2005: Total = 2.4%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Admin & Waste Svd

Utilities

Arts, ent & rec

Farm

Military

Accommod & Food Svc

State & Local Govt.

Wholesale Trade

Finance & InsuranceProf & Tech Services

Health CareConstructionRetail Trade

Contribution to Growth

Impacts Not Uniform

Net economic impact is small (positive) but…Large impacts on income distributionDistribution impacts shape opinions about immigration

Benefits and costs distributed unevenlyOwners of capital, owners of land, and employers gain most Taxpayers in high immigrant-receiving states bear immediate fiscal costs

Source: Hanson, Gordon G., “Why Does Immigration Divide America: Public Finance and Political Opposition to Open Borders”, University of San Diego and NBER, March 2005.

Costs and Contributions- Fiscal Impacts -

Net Fiscal ImpactsCentral to Immigration Debates

State and local impacts more negativeTaxes paid vs. services used

Social service benefitsEducationHealth Care

Federal impacts more positiveTaxes paid vs. services used

Social SecurityFederal social service benefits

Net Fiscal Impacts Are Conditional

Low-skilled immigrants: earn relatively low wagescontribute relatively little in taxeslegal immigrants make greater use of public assistance programs than do natives

Impact depends both on:Size and mix of immigrant populationGenerosity of state public services

Impacts require long-term horizon

Political Challenge:

Immigration increasingly equated with illegal immigration

Causes of Illegal Immigration… Economic Incentives Trump Legal Structures

1. Global economic integration

2. Inadequate provision for legal economic immigration

3. Failure to sanction employers for hiring unauthorized immigrants due to:

i. No reliable means for verifying employment eligibilityii. Inadequate funding of interior enforcement;iii. Limited political will due to U.S. labor needs

Unauthorized Arrivals Exceed Legal Arrivals Since Mid-1990s2004 Foreign-born population by period of arrival and legal status as of 2004

Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

650

140

670

450

660

750

610

700

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1980s 1990-94 1995-1999 2000-Mar 04

Legal in 2004 Illegal in 2004

(000s)

Most Unauthorized Immigrants From Latin America(Share of estimated 10.3 unauthorized immigrants)

* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

Mexico5.9 million (56%)Other Latin America

2.5 million (24%)

Asia1 million (10%)

Europe & Canada0.6 million (6%)

Africa & Other0.4 million (4%)

Illegal Immigration Matters…

- To the immigrants themselves - To the United States

Immigration Status Impacts Employment

15%

33%

6%

17%

10%

16%

27%

13%

35%

10%

6%8%

1%3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

ServiceOccupations

Construction &Extractive

Production,Repair &

Installation

Sales &Administration

Management,Business &Professional

Transportation& Moving

Industries

Farming

Native-born Workers Unauthorized Workers

Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

Immigration Status Impacts Income(Incomes, 2003 Family Size 2004)

Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

$47,700 $47,800

$27,400

1.962.34 2.29

$24,300$20,400

$12,000

Average Family Income Average Family Size Income Per Person

Native-born Families Legal Immigrant Families Unauthorized Families

Immigration Status Impacts Educational Attainment of Children (Share of each group’s 18-24 year old population, 2004)

Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

9

25

49

32

25 2529

18

10

3032

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Less than 12th Grade High School Grad Some College Batchelors or More

Native-Born Legal Immigrants Unauthorized Immigrants

Illegal Immigration Matters to the U.S.

Failure to control borders: Undermines sovereignty & rule of lawCreates national security risksUndermines formulation of coherent policyMakes the border a dangerous place

“It is difficult to open the front door without closing the back door.”

Immigration & National Security

Immigration and National Security

National security requires more than border control

The 9/11 terrorists entered legallyEnforcement not a substitute for intelligence

Yet… border control imperatives are obvious

Enforcement Has Focused on the Border

2,842,000

700,000

109,000

458,000192,000

1,633,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Dolla

rs (0

00s)

Border Control Interior Investigations Detention & Removal/Intelligence

Source: Migration Policy Institute analysis of data from US Department of Justice Immigration and Naturalization Service, Budget Requests to Congress, 1985-2002; and Budget of the United States Government, Appendix, 1985-2003.

Spending by Type of Enforcement: 1985 - 2002

Enforcement Has Been Uneven

Historical ambivalence about enforcementFocus at border while interior enforcement is minimalNo reliable system for verifying immigration

Historical ambivalence about controlling immigration – extent of control modulated by

Limits to visible categoriesAdjustments to numbers of temporary visasAdjustments to enforcement intensity

Prospects for Reform

Politics of Reform

System seen as broken

Political stalemate

“Enforcement before reform” vs. “Reform in order to enforce”

What to do with 11 million unauthorized immigrants?

“Earned regularization” vs. “Amnesty”

Ingredients of an Enforceable System

Streamlining

Legal economic migration channels

Interior and border enforcementReliable mechanisms for verifying employment eligibilityAdequate funding and staffingPolitical will

Adequate funding of immigration infrastructure

Temporary Worker Programs

One mechanism for economic immigration

Polarization over existing unauthorized population – what to do with 11 million people?

Limited provision for permanent economic immigration

‘Importing’ Labor is Complicated

Workers vs. citizens

Facilitates:Limiting rightsSocial divisionsInherent power imbalance

Works against immigrant incorporation to society

Politics of Immigration Debates

*From Tichenor, Daniel, Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America, Princeton University Press, Princeton University, 2002.

Classic Exclusionists

Tom Tancredo (R-CO)

Free-Market Expansionists

Jeff Flake (R-AZ)

Restrictive

Nationalist Egalitarians

Diane Feinstein (D-CA)Cosmopolitans

Edward Kennedy (D-MA)Expansive

RestrictedExpanded or MaintainedImmigrant Rights Should Be

Immigrant Admission Should Be

Major Themes and Conclusions

Today’s immigration reflects a global economy

Economic and fiscal impacts are complex

Current laws reflects complex political cross-currents and interests

Reform will be difficult and political voice is uneven