IMIA INDEX SURVEY€¦ · Presentation of the Expectation vs. Actual Analyis Presentation of the...

IMIA INDEX SURVEY 2019

October 2019

Stephan Lämmle

Images: GettyImages

Agenda

Introduction to the IMIA Engineering Index Survey

Presentation of the IMIA Engineering Index 2019 Survey Results

Presentation of the IMIA Engineering Index Survey Comparison

Presentation of the Expectation vs. Actual Analyis

Presentation of the new IIS tool

Next steps

2IMIA – The International Association of Engineering Insurers

5

4

3

2

1

6

The IMIA Engineering Index Survey - Objective


1. Index concept introduced in 2014

2. Index announced in IMIA Conference Doha 2016

3. Index Pilot Case conducted in 2016

Various revisions followed in EC meetings since

4. Index Survey 2017 sent out on July 6th, 2017

Result presented at 50th anniversary IMIA conference in

Munich for the first time. Various interviews and articles

5. Index Survey 2018 sent out on May 10th, 2018

Result presented at IMIA conference in Singapore

6. Index Survey 2019 sent out on 4th June, 2019

Friendly reminder sent out on 30th July 2019

Result presented at IMIA conference in Vienna

History

Source: IMIA

The IMIA Engineering Index Survey – Compliance


Result Sheet from IMIA Secretary Compilation of Result Sheets

FLASHBACK

The IMIA Engineering Index Survey 2019 – KPI‘s

1. Index Survey sent out on June 4th, 2019 vs. May 10th 2018

2. Survey Return Ratio: 34% (45% in 2018, 30% in 2017)

3. Respondent company profiles:

▪ Size [$US ]: 5 Mio to > 100 Mio

▪ Position: Few Follow, Mostly Lead

▪ Territorial Scope: National to Global

4. Standard deviations:

< 2010 34 – 47% (avg. 40%) (16 – 80% (avg. 39%))

2010 ff 12 – 28% (avg. 18%) (14 – 30% (avg. 19%))


38%

31%

6%

25%

< 5 Mio

5 Mio to 20 Mio

20 Mio to 50Mio

50 Mio to 100Mio

25%

6%69%

Follower

Leader

More Follow

More Lead

25%

31%13%

31%

National

Regional

Continental

Global

Email dtd. 4/6/2019

▪ Largest NatCat and man-

made losses in recent years

▪ All segments stabilising at

approx. 60% of highest level

▪ Slight rate increase

observable in Operational

Energy (O&G and Power)

▪ Strong variation in range of

responses from „2019 far

lower than 2015“ to „2019

considerably higher than

2015“

IMIA Engineering Index Survey - Analysis Result 2019


Rate Level Index 2019 (2010 = 100)

2012 HU Sandy

2011 EQ / Tsunami Fukushima2001 WTC

2005 HU Katrina & Wilma

2008 HU Ike

2004 EQ / Tsunami Sri Lanka, Indonesia

2017 HIMM

2018 Ituango

IMIA Engineering Index Survey - Analysis Result 2019


Rate Level Index (2010 = 100)

Pro

jects

Opera

tional

IMIA Index Development


Comparison 2017 and 2018

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

2002 2010 2015 today

4.1 Project Business (Construction / Erection) 4.1.1 Civil / Infrastructure "Building"

4.1.2 Civil / Infrastructure "Road" 4.1.3 Erection / Power Plant

4.2 Operational Business incl. Machinery Breakdown 4.2.1 Oil&Gas Industry

4.2.2 Power Plant 4.2.3 Heavy Industries

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018





2017 2018

FLASHBACK

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018







Comparison 2018 and 2019

2018 2019



Comparison Expectation 2017 and Actuals 2018

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

2002 2010 2015 today 2018 2020





2018

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018





18

2017 2018

FLASHBACK

2018




2019

▪ Expectation higher than

actuals, except for buildings

and roads

▪ Widest E/A gaps in „Energy“

sectors

▪ Steepest drops against 2015 in

civil construction

▪ All LoB below 2015 values


50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

4.1.1 Civil /Infrastructure

"Building"

4.1.2 Civil /Infrastructure

"Road"

4.1.3 Erection /Power Plant

4.2.1 Oil&GasIndustry

4.2.2 PowerPlant

4.2.3 HeavyIndustries

Rate Level Index 2018 (2010 = 100%), Comparison Prognosis, Actual and Level 2015

Prognosis 2018 in 2017 Actual 2018 Actual 2015



FLASHBACK

Pro

jetc

sO

PS

▪ For all segments actuals 2019

were higher than expectations

in 2018

▪ Widest E/A gaps in Civils –

Building, Ops – Oil&Gas and

Ops – Heavy Industries

▪ Generally approximating 2015

values




▪ Enter own „Result

Sheet“ Data in Yellow

Box

▪ Allows for immediate

self-assessment of own

figures against market

figures

▪ Splits automatically into

individual Lines of

Business

▪ Excel Tool will be

available on IMIA web-

site after conference

IMIA Index self-comparison tool (IIS)


Source: Fotosearch

FLASHBACK

Next steps

1. Collect feedback

2. Repeat survey

3. Motivate for a large number of participations

4. Widen segment analysis

5. Display results on IMIA members area

6. (Collect survey data via web-page)


Objectives for 2019

☺

☺

1. Repeat survey

2. Motivate for a large

number of

participations

Objectives for 2020

Thank you for your attention and …


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