IMBER within IGBP II

P. MonfrayPrepared for IGST,

14-16 November 2005, Exeter

OCEAN IGBP II

http://www.imber.infoIPO in Brest, open October 2005

Goal

“to investigate the sensitivity of marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems to global change, on time scales ranging from years to decades”

Theme 1. Interactions between biogeochemical cycles and

marine food webs.What are the key marine biogeochemical cycles, ecosystem

processes, and their interactions, that will be impacted by global Change?

• Transformation of organic matter in marine food webs • Transfers of matter across ocean interfaces• End-to-end food webs and material flows

Theme 2. Sensitivity to Global Change

What are the responses of key marine biogeochemical cycles, ecosystems and their interactions with global change?

• Impacts of climate-induced changes through physical forcing and variability.

• Effects of increasing anthropogenic CO2 and changing pH on marine biogeochemical cycles and their interactions.

• Effects of changing supplies of macro- and micronutrients• Impacts of harvesting on end-to-end food webs and

biogeochemical cycles.

Theme 3. Feedbacks to the Earth System

What is the role of ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystems in regulating climate?

• Oceanic storage of anthropogenic CO2

• Ecosystem feedback on ocean physics and climate

Theme 4: Responses of Society

• What are the relationships between marine biogeochemical cycles, ecosystems, and the human system?

IMBER National Activities

• Canada, Chile, Germany, France, India, Japan, New Zealand, Netherlands, South Africa, UK, USA, Finland

• China has newly funded five year programme

• Euro Oceans, CarbOcean

• Regional Activities– ICCED, Southern Ocean– OECOS, SubArctic Pacific

Planned Activities• 2005

– Carbon Working Group Meeting, joint IMBER/SOLAS – End to end food webs Working Group Meeting, joint

IMBER/GLOBEC – Executive meeting jointly with GLOBEC Executive Committee

• 2006 – Human Dimensions Working Group Meeting– Continental Margins OSC

• 2007– Theme 2 Issue 2 (Nutrients) OSC– Theme 2 Issue 1 (Physical drivers) OSC– ICCED OSC

• 2008– IMBER Open Science Conference

GODAE-interest/need for IMBER• Ocean state:

– Reanalysis starting from availability altimetry data (1992) for climate studies– Nowcast and forecast analysis for campaign optimization

• Region of interest:– Basin scale at high resolution both for vertical and horizontal– Towards coastal areas for cross slope exchanges

• Assimilation issues:– methods that limit spurious diapycnal fluxes below the mixed layer by advanced assimilation

schemes of physical observations– integrate gradually biogeochemical observations to constrain jointly physics and biogeochemistry

• Observations issues:– Include biogeochemical sensors (O2, pCO2, nutrients, optics, ...) within ARGO and GLIDER.

• Include biogeochemical modules within GODAE system– Realtime or forecast of biogeochemical state for evaluation and campaign optimization– Online coupling for bio-feedbacks on physics

Towards real-time integration of marine biology in operational oceanography

Some issues rise by the MERCATOR/BIONUTS group

P. Gaspar, J. Stum (CLS, Toulouse)E. Greiner, L.Nouel, E. Dombrowsky (MERCATOR OCEAN, Toulouse)A. El Moussaoui, P. Monfray (LEGOS, Toulouse)

O. Aumont, M. Lévy, A.S. Kremeur (LOCEAN, Brest & Paris)S. Alvain , L.Bopp, C. Moulin, J. Orr (LSCE, Gif)L. Berline, J.M. Brankart, P. Brasseur, Y. Ourmières, J.Verron (LEGI,

Grenoble)

July 1998Chlorophyllusing MERCATOR

SeaWIFS

LOBSTER

PISCES

P3ZD

2° to 1/3°resolution

Add SSH assimilation

Add N regeneration

Add Fe from margins

SeaWIFS 98-02

SeaWiFS

with SLA and SST ass. + IAU

July 1998P3ZD/NATL3

SEEK assimilation with IAU(Incremental Analysis Update)

w/o assimilation

Berline et al., 2004

1992 1993

1994 1995

1996 1997

1998 1999

2000 2001

Preliminary results using MERCATOR re-analysis (MERA-11)

in 2006: realtime demo prototype with evaluation by ocean color

beyond: global 1/4°, atl 1/15°

Biogeochemistry:3 challenges for GODAE

• 1- Do assimilation schemes of physical variables respect constrains for marine biology ? - Actually NO

• 2- Do marine biogeochemical first guesses are enough robust ? - NO but quality increased

• 3- How assimilate information from sea color to jointly improve physics and biology ? - Require to solve first 1 & 2

Physical (Re)Analysis

OfflineBiogeochemistry

Biogeochemical Observations

Diagnostics

BiogeochemicalCodes

AssimilationSchemes

Towards a “virtuous loop” ?

Products: PP, fCO2, O2, turbidity …

Users: Research,Carbon/Kyoto, Marine Resources

Towards nowcast & hindcat

2nd Int'l GODAE Symposium, November 1st-3rd, 2004, St. Petersburg, FL Report to IMBER-SSC of Breakout Session3 on

“Marine Ecosystems Management: Fisheries and Biogeochemistry"

Context • GODAE should move actively towards ecosystem modeling and include this goal within its mandate. GODAE should develop models with living marine resources (thus providing products for users) and form partnerships with others (e.g. IMBER, LOICZ, GLOBEC, GEOHAB) to develop and apply assimilation techniques for ecosystem models. Product Lines relevant for IMBER • Real-time in situ data and remote sensed data to provide warning on extreme conditions for operational use; • Real–time model forecast to optimize field campaign with predictions of extreme temperature events or eddies/fronts within 1 or 2 weeks; • Reanalysis products for retrospective analysis of carbon cycle or ecosystems dynamics. Product Types relevant for IMBER • Data types – Circulation fields, T, S, turbulence, light levels, mixed-layer depth ; • Global or basin scale, however downscale to the inner shelf coastal applications is crucial but tricky (CODAE system required); • Retrospective reanalysis of data and hindcasting could goes back to 1950, but much better since 1992 by using satellite altimetry, then 2003 with the new ARGO float system.

…/…

Challenge for IMBER • Development of ecosystem models that used GODAE products:

- offline mode for hindcast over years to decades, - realtime nesting within GODAE system for nowcast and/or forecast, - online mode for feedback loop from plankton dynamics to physics via regulation of

solar heat penetration; • Development of real-time in-situ observing system, as geochemical or biological sensors on ARGO float or ship of opportunity; • Development of advanced assimilation schemes to constrain in a coherent manner both dynamics of physics, biogeochemistry and biology. • Partnerships with GODAE must be proactively encouraged by IMBER-SSC on such issues. Message to GODAE to serve and interact with the IMBER user community • Assimilation matching - Need to ensure that the data collected and specifi c assimilation schemes represent the right aspects of ecosystem dynamics to make the model most useful for the users (special attention needed for vertical transport and turbulence). • Specific verification - Each ‘product’ must be tested (locally ) against the requirement of its defined user need. It is not simply possible to test the ‘generic’ model but is necessary to know what ‘ type’ of output is required by the user and in what form. Benchmarks and verifi cation are important to ensure data quali ty and gain trust of users. • Translation – GODAE should help to make the products understandable to the users, making vast amounts of information useful and more easily understandable. Ease of access is also important. Communications with new users may be diffi cult. • Dialogue - Some simple results of data already in use would require relatively li ttle discussion for development but in general development of useful products will require many local and regional bi-lateral and multi-lateral discussions between developers and users. General strategic support could probably be provided by GODAE but perhaps only at strategic level. • Partnerships with IMBER must be proactively encouraged by GODAE-SSC on such issues.

A joint workshop on “Biogeochemistry issues within operational oceanography” ?

• Gain benefit on existing experiences made by teams associated with GODAE systems*

• Define a joint Vision for future activities

• Schedule in 2006/07 ?– Joint with IMBER OSC on physical drivers ? – Next GODAE Symposium ?

* MERCATOR/BIONUTS, NCOF/HADOCC-ERSEM, BLUElink, ECCO, HYCOM, …

IMBER IPO

• Brest, France• Funded three years by CNRS, IRD,

University of Brittany, Region of Brittany• Official opening October 25th, 2005• Executive Officer is Sylvie Roy• Deputy Executive Officer Sophie

Beauvais• Administrative Assistant is Elena Fily

IMBER Science Plan

Vision

“to provide a comprehensive understanding of and accurate predictive capacity for, ocean responses to accelerating global change and the consequent effects on the Earth System and human society”

Cross-slope exchange issue