Imagining the Internet mobililty shifts keynote

http//www.imaginingtheinternet.org

Elon University School of Communications

The mission:

To explore and provide insights into emerging network innovations, global development, dynamics, diffusion and governance.

The center’s research holds a mirror to humanity's use of communications technologies, informs policy development, exposes potential futures and provides a historic record. It strives to illuminate emerging issues in order to serve the greater good.

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/about.xhtml


•Imagining the Internet (www.imaginingtheinternet.org) - a global-good initiative of Elon University.

•It all began in 2003 with the construction of a database of 1990-95 predictions about the future potential of the Internet. •We expanded from there to do a series of “Future” surveys and gather new predictions regularly from the public and select experts.

http://www.imaginingtheinternet.org/


TMI? (too much info?)

Yes, my PowerPoints are dense with details. I will make this available online…-Read what you want, all or part… -Or just shut your eyes and listen… -The point is to share information, so everyone please take in as much as you’d like! We will have lots of discussion time…


http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/early90s/


Quotes from Early ‘90s Database

There's a big cinder block stuck on the technology accelerator pedal, and we're only gonna go faster and faster, never stopping. - William Gibson, 1994

The value of information about information can be greater than the value of the information itself. - Nicholas Negroponte, 1994


The Internet is more like a social space than a thing so that its effects are more like those of Germany than those of hammers. - Mark Poster, 1995

We have to resist media imperialism - the tendency to colonize, to define new technologies in terms of the old ... Redefine, don't repackage. - Barry Diller, 1995


From now on, the struggle will not be over mechanical control of the means of information, but over spin-control of the zeitgeist. - Bruce Sterling, 1994

Much care has to be taken with design and education in order for the change to be positive. We don't have natural defenses against fat, sugar, salt, alcohol, alkaloids - or media. - Alan Kay, 1994


We have done four “Future of the Internet” surveys…In the 2004 survey we partnered on with Pew Internet…

• 57% said virtual classes will be prevalent and students will often be grouped with others by virtue of shared interests and needs rather than by age.

• 56% said as telecommuting and home-schooling expand the boundary between work and leisure will diminish.

• When we asked what expected changes had not yet materialized, narrative answers showed concerns about the slow progress in schools and the gaps of the digital divide.

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2004survey/default.xhtml


Statements from the 2004 survey…

Master teachers will copyright courses and lectures, and multimedia versions will become "best sellers.” - Gary Bachula

Education will still be in classrooms, however, the nature of knowledge and authority are changing rapidly. - David Weinberger

The role of the teacher will change from authority figure with all the information to one-on-one educational coach. - Moira Gunn

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2004_formaleducation.xhtml


The current classroom setup is a byproduct of the assembly line culture of the industrial revolution, with neat rows of desks facing the classroom leader. - Jonathan Peizer

Schools are among those institutions most resistant to change… Much of the online learning will continue to be part of the expansion of the role of informal out-of-school learning in students’ lives. - Henry Jenkins

Lucky learners will be in communities or professions in which the traditional expectations for judging quality will be liberated. - Christine Geith

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2004_formaleducation.xhtml


(The 2006 survey didn’t zero in on education questions.)

In the 2008 Future of the Internet survey…

• 81% said by 2020 the mobile phone will be the primary connection for most people in the world.

• 56% said by 2020 virtual worlds, mirror worlds and augmented reality will be popular network formats and most people who are “connected” will be spending time there daily.

• 57% said by 2020 few lines will divide professional time from personal time and that’s OK – with work and play seamlessly integrated.



It’s possible the mobile phone will be the "babble fish" of the 21st century—the tool that instantly translates any language (human, machine, or otherwise) to any other language. - Ed Dieterle

It will no longer be seen as a mobile phone, more as a sort of mobile companion. There will be separate devices that can plug into each other, thus forming new objects on their fusion… to become teaching aids, etc. - Richard Osborne

I do not see blanket interconnectivity as necessarily a positive scenario. - Alex Don

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2008survey/mobile_internet_2020.xhtml


If people spend time in artificial spaces/virtual worlds it will likely most often be in game environments. - Steve Jones

Sustained life (work/education/socializing) inside the metaverse will happen, but not as quickly as we might expect. Real life's appeals will be stronger. - Adam Peake

Virtual worlds are the next evolution in social networking, and once it becomes easier to integrate content from an external environment into the virtual, the development and integration will become as ubiquitous as the Web. - Karmon Runquist

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2008survey/internet_and_virtual_reality_2020.xhtml


In the 2010 Future of the Internet survey…

• 81% of who were asked, “Is Google making us stupid?” said the Internet is enhancing human intelligence.

• 72% said by 2020 most Net access will be through mobile devices. (Smartphones, laptops, tablets dominate.)

• 85% said online relationships will continue to hold and gain in value. (Being “social” and sharing online is +.)

• 71% said they hope to see more efficient government and business by 2020 because of online opportunities.



The critical uncertainty is whether people will learn the essential literacies: attention, participation, collaboration, crap detection and network awareness… I am not optimistic about the rate of change in education. - Howard Rheingold

Current schools’ rules/regulations, job protection, will delay the transformation to a better learning environment. The new learning system, more informal, will eventually win since we must use technology to cause everyone to learn more, more economically. Maintaining the status quo will only continue the existing win/lose society. - Ed Lyell

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2010survey/future_intelligence.xhtml



The challenge we now face comes from the trust the Internet audience puts in the results demonstrated by the major search engines, how we resolve this will be what we most need to focus on in the current and future to ensure that knowledge, that which is primary and authoritative is truly understood and sought. - Kevin Novak

Google will make us smarter by freeing humans from the current education system where facts are memorized, history is written by winners and a ‘one size fits all’ policy dominates. In 2020, the sheer amount of data available will fundamentally change our ability to understand. - Davis Fieldshttp://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2010survey/future_intelligence.xhtml



The Internet is the future of education, economics, politics, society… - We ARE information.- EVERYTHING is code. - We are becoming one with the Internet.


In just a few years we have built a Web with more than

70 billion sites and

more than 1 trillion addresses.


• Search engines…• Databases in “the cloud”…• Geolocation capabilities…• Virtual reality tools…• Augmented reality capabilities…• Information gamification…

In just a few years, we created


From the 2010 Future of the Internet survey, narrative:

• Our ever-present ability to tap the Internet and search engines is shifting cognitive capacities – for instance, less memorizing and more need for analytical skills.

• Our networks increase people’s engagement and the number of ways in which knowledge can be shared.

• Connectivity is a blessing and a curse; technology lifelines can also be technology choke collars.

• Technology amplifies existing tendencies; it doesn’t change human nature.




• Cloud computing will dominate by 2020, allowing easy, instant, individualized access to data from anywhere.

• Email, social networks and apps and wireless allow people to build communities on the fly and broadcast/share anytime.

• Constraints of geography, time and space are removed and technology is reconfiguring people’s sense of presence.

• Frictionless global networks change how reputations are made, perceived and remade and new norms are being encoded.




• New literacies are necessary as the rendering and sharing of knowledge continues to morph.

• Mobile devices and social networks have altered expression of identity; are forcing adjustment of norms such as privacy.

• The change from industrial-era “mass society” to a “networked society” requires individuals to establish personas.

• Frictionless global networks change how reputations are made, perceived and remade and new norms are being encoded.



How will the concepts of privacy and identity evolve in this environment?


How are our brains changing as we converge with information in cyberspace?


Are today’s human institutions as they are constituted capable of responding well to new opportunities and threats?


How is the definition of ‘reality’ changing and how do we tell fact from fiction in a mixed-reality environment?


How much will regulation and technology bottlenecks now being introduced interfere with innovation and expected progress?


How will differences in access to technology be dealt with in order to avoid a widening knowledge gap?


Participate in the next survey!We invite you and your colleagues to participate as expert respondents in the next Future of the Internet survey, which is being fielded right now. To get ideas flowing, we’ll open up to a discussion of the question set right here, right now.


Tension pairs force you to weigh optionsRather than presenting a straight-on 2020 scenario and asking if you agree we are presenting two paragraphs on each issue and asking you to select which is most likely to evolve – not which you like, but which you most expect, knowing what you know now.


In 2020 the brains of multitasking youth are “wired” differently from those over age 35 and overall it yields helpful results. They are learning more and they are more adept at finding answers to deep questions, in part because they can search effectively and access collective intelligence via the Internet. The changes in learning behavior and cognition among the young generally produce positive outcomes.

Teens, tech and human potential in 2020


In 2020, the brains of multitasking youth are “wired” differently from those over age 35 and overall it yields baleful results. They do not retain information; they spend most of their energy sharing short social messages, being entertained, and being distracted away from deep engagement. They lack deep-thinking capabilities; they lack face-to-face social skills. The changes in behavior and cognition are generally negative outcomes.



In 2020 the brains of multitasking youth are “wired” differently from those over age 35 and overall it yields helpful results. They are learning more and they are more adept at finding answers to deep questions, in part because they can search effectively and access collective intelligence via the Internet. The changes in learning behavior and cognition among the young generally produce positive outcomes.

In 2020, the brains of multitasking youth are “wired” differently from those over age 35 and overall it yields baleful results. They do not retain information; they spend most of their energy sharing short social messages, being entertained, and being distracted away from deep engagement. They lack deep-thinking capabilities; they lack face-to-face social skills. The changes in behavior and cognition are generally negative outcomes.



In 2020, higher ed will not be much different. While people will be accessing more resources through teleconferencing and personal wireless smart devices, most universities will mostly require in-person, on-campus attendance of students most of the time at courses featuring a lot of traditional lectures. Universities’ assessment of learning and their requirements for graduation will be about the same as they are now.

Higher education’s destination by 2020


By 2020, higher ed will be quite different. There will be mass adoption of teleconferencing and distance learning. Learning activities will move to individualized, just-in-time learning approaches and “hybrid” classes. Most universities’ assessment of learning will take into account more individually-oriented outcomes and capacities that are relevant to subject mastery. Requirements for graduation will be significantly shifted to customized outcomes.



In 2020, higher ed will not be much different. While people will be accessing more resources through teleconferencing and personal wireless smart devices, most universities will mostly require in-person, on-campus attendance of students most of the time at courses featuring a lot of traditional lectures. Universities’ assessment of learning and their requirements for graduation will be about the same as they are now.

By 2020, higher ed will be quite different. There will be mass adoption of teleconferencing and distance learning. Learning activities will move to individualized, just-in-time learning approaches and “hybrid” classes. Most universities’ assessment of learning will take into account more individually-oriented outcomes and capacities that are relevant to subject mastery. Requirements for graduation will be significantly shifted to customized outcomes.



By 2020, most people will have embraced and fully adopted the use of smart-device swiping for purchases they make, nearly eliminating the need for cash or credit cards. People will trust and rely on personal hardware and software for handling monetary transactions over the Internet and in stores. Cash and credit cards will have mostly disappeared from many of the transactions that occur in advanced countries.

The future of money: What IS your wallet?


People will not trust the use of NFC devices and there will not be major conversion of money to an all-digital-all-the-time format. By 2020, it will not have gained a lot of traction. The security implications raise too many concerns. And people are resistant to letting technology companies learn even more about their personal purchasing habits. Cash and credit cards will still be the dominant method of carrying out transactions in advanced countries.



By 2020, most people will have embraced and fully adopted the use of smart-device swiping for purchases they make, nearly eliminating the need for cash or credit cards. People will trust and rely on personal hardware and software for handling monetary transactions over the Internet and in stores. Cash and credit cards will have mostly disappeared from many of the transactions that occur in advanced countries.

People will not trust the use of NFC devices and there will not be major conversion of money to an all-digital-all-the-time format. By 2020, it will not have gained a lot of traction. The security implications raise too many concerns. And people are resistant to letting technology companies learn even more about their personal purchasing habits. Cash and credit cards will still be the dominant method of carrying out transactions in advanced countries.



In 2020, most people will prefer to use specific apps accessible by Internet connection to accomplish most online work, play, communication, and content creation. Most industry innovation and activity will be devoted to apps development and updates, and use of apps will occupy the majority of technology-users’ time. There will be a widespread belief that the World Wide Web is less important than in the past.

Apps vs. Web: Winner?


In 2020, the open Web continues to thrive and grow as a vibrant place where most people do most of their work, play, communication, and content creation. Apps accessed through iPads, Kindles, Nooks, smartphones, and their progeny – the online tools GigaOM referred to as “the anti-Internet” – will be useful as specialized options. There will be a widespread belief that, compared to apps, the Web is more important and useful.



In 2020, most people will prefer to use specific apps accessible by Internet connection to accomplish most online work, play, communication, and content creation. Most industry innovation and activity will be devoted to apps development and updates, and use of apps will occupy the majority of technology-users’ time. There will be a widespread belief that the World Wide Web is less important than in the past.

In 2020, the open Web continues to thrive and grow as a vibrant place where most people do most of their work, play, communication, and content creation. Apps accessed through iPads, Kindles, Nooks, smartphones, and their progeny – the online tools GigaOM referred to as “the anti-Internet” – will be useful as specialized options. There will be a widespread belief that, compared to apps, the Web is more important and useful.



The “Internet of Things” and human and machine analysis of large data sets will improve social, political, and economic intelligence by 2020. The rise of what is known as “Big Data” will facilitate “nowcasting” (real-time “forecasting”); development of “inferential software”; and the creation of algorithms for advanced correlations that enable new understanding of the world. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a positive.

Influence of Big Data, Internet of Things in 2020


The “Internet of Things” and human and machine analysis of large data sets will cause more problems than it solves by 2020. The existence of huge data sets for analysis will engender false confidence in our predictive powers and will lead many to make significant and hurtful mistakes. Moreover, analysis of Big Data will be misused by powerful people and institutions with selfish agendas. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a big negative.



The “Internet of Things” and human and machine analysis of large data sets will improve social, political, and economic intelligence by 2020. The rise of what is known as “Big Data” will facilitate “nowcasting” (real-time “forecasting”); development of “inferential software”; and the creation of algorithms for advanced correlations that enable new understanding of the world. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a positive.

The “Internet of Things” and human and machine analysis of large data sets will cause more problems than it solves by 2020. The existence of huge data sets for analysis will engender false confidence in our predictive powers and will lead many to make significant and hurtful mistakes. Moreover, analysis of Big Data will be misused by powerful people and institutions with selfish agendas. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a big negative.



By 2020, gamification (the use of games, feedback loops, rewards to spur interaction/boost engagement, loyalty, fun and/or learning) will not be implemented in most everyday digital activities for most people. While game use and game-like structures will remain an important segment of the communications scene and will have been adopted in new ways, the gamification of other aspects of communications will not really have advanced much.

Getting into the gamification?


By 2020, there will have been significant advances in the adoption and use of gamification. It will be making waves on the communications scene and will have been implemented in many new ways for education, health, work, and other aspects of human connection and it will play a role in the everyday activities of many of the people who are actively using communications networks in their daily lives.



By 2020, gamification (the use of games, feedback loops, rewards to spur interaction/boost engagement, loyalty, fun and/or learning) will not be implemented in most everyday digital activities for most people. While game use and game-like structures will remain an important segment of the communications scene and will have been adopted in new ways, the gamification of other aspects of communications will not really have advanced much.

By 2020, there will have been significant advances in the adoption and use of gamification. It will be making waves on the communications scene and will have been implemented in many new ways for education, health, work, and other aspects of human connection and it will play a role in the everyday activities of many of the people who are actively using communications networks in their daily lives.



By 2020, the connected household has become a model of efficiency, as people are able to manage consumption of resources (electricity, water, food, even bandwidth) in ways that place less of a burden on the environment while saving households money. Thanks to what is known as “Smart Systems,” the “Home of the Future” that has often been foretold is coming closer and closer to becoming a reality.

The fate of “smart systems”


By 2020, most initiatives to embed IP-enabled devices in the home have failed due to difficulties in gaining consumer trust and because of the complexities in using new services. As a result, the home of 2020 looks about the same as the home of 2011 in terms of resource consumption and management. Once again, the “Home of the Future” does not come to resemble the future projected in the recent past.



By 2020, the connected household has become a model of efficiency, as people are able to manage consumption of resources (electricity, water, food, even bandwidth) in ways that place less of a burden on the environment while saving households money. Thanks to what is known as “Smart Systems,” the “Home of the Future” that has often been foretold is coming closer and closer to becoming a reality.

By 2020, most initiatives to embed IP-enabled devices in the home have failed due to difficulties in gaining consumer trust and because of the complexities in using new services. As a result, the home of 2020 looks about the same as the home of 2011 in terms of resource consumption and management. Once again, the “Home of the Future” does not come to resemble the future projected in the recent past.



In 2020, tech firms with HQs in democratic countries will be expected to abide by a set of norms - for instance, the "Responsibility to Protect” citizens being attacked or challenged by governments. In this world, for instance, a Western telecom firm would not be able to selectively monitor or block the Internet activity of protestors at the behest of an authoritarian government without significant penalties in other markets.

Corporate responsibility: Which road will be taken?


In 2020, technology firms headquartered in democratic countries will have taken steps to minimize their usefulness as tools for political organizing by dissidents. They will reason that too much association with sensitive activities will put them in disfavor with autocratic governments. Indeed, in this world, commercial firms derive significant income from filtering and editing their services on behalf of the world's authoritarian regimes.



In 2020, tech firms with HQs in democratic countries will be expected to abide by a set of norms - for instance, the "Responsibility to Protect” citizens being attacked or challenged by governments. In this world, for instance, a Western telecom firm would not be able to selectively monitor or block the Internet activity of protestors at the behest of an authoritarian government without significant penalties in other markets.

In 2020, technology firms headquartered in democratic countries will have taken steps to minimize their usefulness as tools for political organizing by dissidents. They will reason that too much association with sensitive activities will put them in disfavor with autocratic governments. Indeed, in this world, commercial firms derive significant income from filtering and editing their services on behalf of the world's authoritarian regimes.



The Pew Internet Project and the Imagining the Internet Center are facilitating regular expert technology conversations about the likely future evolution of the Internet. Due to your active interest in key issues, you are

invited to participate.

We also strongly encourage the sharing of the survey link with other people in your circles who have some expertise.

You will find the survey here: http://survey.fs.elon.edu/cgi-bin/qwebcorporate.cgi?9JREK7

Pew-Elon Expert Survey Invitation:

http://survey.fs.elon.edu/cgi-bin/qwebcorporate.cgi?9JREK7

http://survey.fs.elon.edu/cgi-bin/qwebcorporate.cgi?9JREK7

Imagining the Internet mobililty shifts keynote

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