‘Imagining 2020’: key demographics
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Transcript of ‘Imagining 2020’: key demographics
‘Imagining 2020’: key demographics
Cheshire & Warrington Sub-regional Conference 11 July 2014
Content
• What are the shared challenges?
• Where are we now?• What can we do?• Case study – alcohol
use
What are the shared challenges?We’re changing• Aging population• Becoming heavier• Drinking more• StressResult• Increase in long term
conditions• Increased use of services
Financial constraints
Increased demand
Services
1992 2012 2031
Births 4186 4013 ↓ 9.6%Deaths 3780 3420 ↓ 9.0%Population 342k 371k ↑ 8.3%Smokers 28% 17% ↓ 40%Heart adm. 1347 1209 ↓ 10%Lung cancer 216 246 ↑ 14%Bowel cancer 160 267 ↑ 67% 374Breast cancer 165 323 ↑ 96% 481Diabetics 5581 17268 ↑ 309% 28955Drug users 319 1139 ↑ 380% 1959
Cheshire East Age Structure
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-4950-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-59
80-84
85-89
90+
1991 to 2011 2011 to 2031
During the next twenty years there will be substantial rises in the number of people over 80,
and fewer people aged 30 to 55
Example from Cheshire East
Implications of an aging population• More dementia
• Increased cancer
• Increased comorbidity
• Loss of function
: Warrington
• In 2012, 6.8% adults estimated to have diabetes, • by 2020, if current trends continue this could be 7.6% • by 2030, 8.5%
2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 2010-120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
187
162
144
134
144
156
52 4944 42 41 38
Number of deaths from suicide and injury of undetermined intent (Males & Females, All Ages): Merseyside & Cheshire
Male Deaths
Female Deaths
1 Year Figures Based on 3 Year Average
Aver
age
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
44% rise in cancer over next 10 years (ageing and PREVENTABLE lifestyle factors)13/15th when compared to similar LAs
• Early detection of cancer may not be improving
• Challenge of Bowel Screening
The Lifetime Risk of Developing Cancer in Cheshire East
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 2010-12 2011-13 2012-14 2013-15 2014-16 2015-17 2016-18
Perc
entage
of the
Who
le P
opulation
Male Female Persons Male (Projection) Females (Projection) Persons (Projection)
Cancer key facts- Cheshire East
Where are we now?April 2012 – the All Party Parliamentary Group on Primary Care &
Public Health held a roundtable discussion on: Ten years on from Wanless, how “fully-engaged” are we?
• some success in meeting smoking cessation targets
• but a rise in other serious public health challenges (obesity, alcohol)
• huge reductions in treatment waiting times (although is this changing?)
• but GP consultation rates have risen as people still do not self-care
• no shift in resources out of hospitals
• no switch of activity from GPs to pharmacies • we still do not have no good information to support personal decisions
and the ability to have consistency of care • ‘’ the rhetoric of engagement has risen – but paternalistic services
continue and the public remains dependent on these’’
What can we do????• Move from cure to prevention• People at the centre, instead of “what's the matter”
ask “what matters to you”• Healthy people, healthy place, healthy communities• Healthy policy (health equity and health impact)• Collaboration (service improvement, efficiency,
resilience)• Agree priorities for action
Case study: Alcohol
MAKING THE MOST OF THE OPPORTUNITIES
Alcohol Use – Trends in Related Harm
Alcohol misuse harms families and communities(source: PHE)
Alcohol Use – The response(source: PHE)
The Response - Prevention(source: PHE)
The Response - Partnership(source: PHE)
Questions and comments ?
Eileen O’MearaDirector of Public Health and Public Protection DepartmentHalton Borough Council / Runcorn Town Hall / Heath Road / Runcorn / Cheshire / WA7 5TD
Email: [email protected] Tel : 0151 511 6848